Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

Computationally efficient numerical methods for time- and space-fractional Fokker–Planck equations

Fractional Fokker–Planck equations have been used to model several physical situations that present anomalous diffusion. In this paper, a class of time- and space-fractional Fokker–Planck equations (TSFFPE), which involve the Riemann–Liouville time-fractional derivative of order 1-α (α(0, 1)) and the Riesz space-fractional derivative (RSFD) of order μ(1, 2), are considered. The solution of TSFFPE is important for describing the competition between subdiffusion and Lévy flights. However, effective numerical methods for solving TSFFPE are still in their infancy. We present three computationally efficient numerical methods to deal with the RSFD, and approximate the Riemann–Liouville time-fractional derivative using the Grünwald method. The TSFFPE is then transformed into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE), which is solved by the fractional implicit trapezoidal method (FITM). Finally, numerical results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods. These techniques can also be applied to solve other types of fractional partial differential equations.

Efficient algorithm for achieving GWPMM fairness in ATM ABR services

A new explicit rate allocation algorithm is proposed for achieving generic weight-proportional max-min (GWPMM) fairness in asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) available bit rate services. This algorithm scales well with a fixed computational complexity of O(1) and can realise GWPMM fair rate allocation in an ATM network accurately.

Highly efficient, stoichiometric radical exchange reactions using isoindoline profluorescent nitroxides

Exchange reactions between the isoindoline profluorescent nitroxide 1,1,3,3-tetramethyldibenzo[e,g]isoindolin-2-yloxyl (TMDBIO) and a TEMPO capped polystyrene were carried out. High conversions to the desired products were achieved using only stoichiometric ratios of nitroxide relative to polymer. The scope of this study was expanded by exploiting a di-nitroxide 9,10-bis(5-[1,1,3,3-tetramethylisoindolin-2-yloxy])anthracene (BTMIOA) as a connector between two polymer chains forming PS–nitroxide–PS systems.

Ubiquitous eco cities : telecommunication infrastructure, technology convergence and urban management

Efficient and effective urban management systems for Ubiquitous Eco Cities require having intelligent and integrated management mechanisms. This integration includes bringing together economic, socio-cultural and urban development with a well orchestrated, transparent and open decision-making system and necessary infrastructure and technologies. In Ubiquitous Eco Cities telecommunication technologies play an important role in monitoring and managing activities via wired and wireless networks. Particularly, technology convergence creates new ways in which information and telecommunication technologies are used and formed the backbone of urban management. The 21st Century is an era where information has converged, in which people are able to access a variety of services, including internet and location based services, through multi-functional devices and provides new opportunities in the management of Ubiquitous Eco Cities. This chapter discusses developments in telecommunication infrastructure and trends in convergence technologies and their implications on the management of Ubiquitous Eco Cities

Fusing curricula : science, technology and ICT

Curriculum demands continue to increase on school education systems with teachers at the forefront of implementing syllabus requirements. Education is reported frequently as a solution to most societal problems and, as a result of the world’s information explosion, teachers are expected to cover more and more within teaching programs. How can teachers combine subjects in order to capitalise on the competing educational agendas within school timeframes? Fusing curricula requires the bonding of standards from two or more syllabuses. Both technology and ICT complement the learning of science. This study analyses selected examples of preservice teachers’ overviews for fusing science, technology and ICT. These program overviews focused on primary students and the achievement of two standards (one from science and one from either technology or ICT). These primary preservice teachers’ fused-curricula overviews included scientific concepts and related technology and/or ICT skills and knowledge. Findings indicated a range of innovative curriculum plans for teaching primary science through technology and ICT, demonstrating that these subjects can form cohesive links towards achieving the respective learning standards. Teachers can work more astutely by fusing curricula; however further professional development may be required to advance thinking about these processes. Bonding subjects through their learning standards can extend beyond previous integration or thematic work where standards may not have been assessed. Education systems need to articulate through syllabus documents how effective fusing of curricula can be achieved. It appears that education is a key avenue for addressing societal needs, problems and issues. Education is promoted as a universal solution, which has resulted in curriculum overload (Dare, Durand, Moeller, & Washington, 1997; Vinson, 2001). Societal and curriculum demands have placed added pressure on teachers with many extenuating education issues increasing teachers’ workloads (Mobilise for Public Education, 2002). For example, as Australia has weather conducive for outdoor activities, social problems and issues arise that are reported through the media calling for action; consequently schools have been involved in swimming programs, road and bicycle safety programs, and a wide range of activities that had been considered a parental responsibility in the past. Teachers are expected to plan, implement and assess these extra-curricula activities within their already overcrowded timetables. At the same stage, key learning areas (KLAs) such as science and technology are mandatory requirements within all Australian education systems. These systems have syllabuses outlining levels of content and the anticipated learning outcomes (also known as standards, essential learnings, and frameworks). Time allocated for teaching science in obviously an issue. In 2001, it was estimated that on average the time spent in teaching science in Australian Primary Schools was almost an hour per week (Goodrum, Hackling, & Rennie, 2001). More recently, a study undertaken in the U.S. reported a similar finding. More than 80% of the teachers in K-5 classrooms spent less than an hour teaching science (Dorph, Goldstein, Lee, et al., 2007). More importantly, 16% did not spend teaching science in their classrooms. Teachers need to learn to work smarter by optimising the use of their in-class time. Integration is proposed as one of the ways to address the issue of curriculum overload (Venville & Dawson, 2005; Vogler, 2003). Even though there may be a lack of definition for integration (Hurley, 2001), curriculum integration aims at covering key concepts in two or more subject areas within the same lesson (Buxton & Whatley, 2002). This implies covering the curriculum in less time than if the subjects were taught separately; therefore teachers should have more time to cover other educational issues. Expectedly, the reality can be decidedly different (e.g., Brophy & Alleman, 1991; Venville & Dawson, 2005). Nevertheless, teachers report that students expand their knowledge and skills as a result of subject integration (James, Lamb, Householder, & Bailey, 2000). There seems to be considerable value for integrating science with other KLAs besides aiming to address teaching workloads. Over two decades ago, Cohen and Staley (1982) claimed that integration can bring a subject into the primary curriculum that may be otherwise left out. Integrating science education aims to develop a more holistic perspective. Indeed, life is not neat components of stand-alone subjects; life integrates subject content in numerous ways, and curriculum integration can assist students to make these real-life connections (Burnett & Wichman, 1997). Science integration can provide the scope for real-life learning and the possibility of targeting students’ learning styles more effectively by providing more than one perspective (Hudson & Hudson, 2001). To illustrate, technology is essential to science education (Blueford & Rosenbloom, 2003; Board of Studies, 1999; Penick, 2002), and constructing technology immediately evokes a social purpose for such construction (Marker, 1992). For example, building a model windmill requires science and technology (Zubrowski, 2002) but has a key focus on sustainability and the social sciences. Science has the potential to be integrated with all KLAs (e.g., Cohen & Staley, 1982; Dobbs, 1995; James et al., 2000). Yet, “integration” appears to be a confusing term. Integration has an educational meaning focused on special education students being assimilated into mainstream classrooms. The word integration was used in the late seventies and generally focused around thematic approaches for teaching. For instance, a science theme about flight only has to have a student drawing a picture of plane to show integration; it did not connect the anticipated outcomes from science and art. The term “fusing curricula” presents a seamless bonding between two subjects; hence standards (or outcomes) need to be linked from both subjects. This also goes beyond just embedding one subject within another. Embedding implies that one subject is dominant, while fusing curricula proposes an equal mix of learning within both subject areas. Primary education in Queensland has eight KLAs, each with its established content and each with a proposed structure for levels of learning. Primary teachers attempt to cover these syllabus requirements across the eight KLAs in less than five hours a day, and between many of the extra-curricula activities occurring throughout a school year (e.g., Easter activities, Education Week, concerts, excursions, performances). In Australia, education systems have developed standards for all KLAs (e.g., Education Queensland, NSW Department of Education and Training, Victorian Education) usually designated by a code. In the late 1990’s (in Queensland), “core learning outcomes” for strands across all KLA’s. For example, LL2.1 for the Queensland Education science syllabus means Life and Living at Level 2 standard number 1. Thus, a teacher’s planning requires the inclusion of standards as indicated by the presiding syllabus. More recently, the core learning outcomes were replaced by “essential learnings”. They specify “what students should be taught and what is important for students to have opportunities to know, understand and be able to do” (Queensland Studies Authority, 2009, para. 1). Fusing science education with other KLAs may facilitate more efficient use of time and resources; however this type of planning needs to combine standards from two syllabuses. To further assist in facilitating sound pedagogical practices, there are models proposed for learning science, technology and other KLAs such as Bloom’s Taxonomy (Bloom, 1956), Productive Pedagogies (Education Queensland, 2004), de Bono’s Six Hats (de Bono, 1985), and Gardner’s Multiple Intelligences (Gardner, 1999) that imply, warrant, or necessitate fused curricula. Bybee’s 5 Es, for example, has five levels of learning (engage, explore, explain, elaborate, and evaluate; Bybee, 1997) can have the potential for fusing science and ICT standards.

Efficient querying of large process model repositories

Recent years have seen an increased uptake of business process management technology in industries. This has resulted in organizations trying to manage large collections of business process models. One of the challenges facing these organizations concerns the retrieval of models from large business process model repositories. For example, in some cases new process models may be derived from existing models, thus finding these models and adapting them may be more effective and less error-prone than developing them from scratch. Since process model repositories may be large, query evaluation may be time consuming. Hence, we investigate the use of indexes to speed up this evaluation process. To make our approach more applicable, we consider the semantic similarity between labels. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate that our approach is efficient.

Enhancing agrobacterium-mediated transformation efficiency of sugarcane : progress towards an efficient, genotype-independent method

Several key issues need to be resolved before an efficient and reproducible Agrobacterium-mediated sugarcane transformation method can be developed for a wider range of sugarcane cultivars. These include loss of morphogenetic potential in sugarcane cells after Agrobacterium-mediated transformation, effect of exposure to abiotic stresses during in vitro selection, and most importantly the hypersensitive cell death response of sugarcane (and other nonhost plants) to Agrobacterium tumefaciens. Eight sugarcane cultivars (Q117, Q151, Q177, Q200, Q208, KQ228, QS94-2329, and QS94-2174) were evaluated for loss of morphogenetic potential in response to the age of the culture, exposure to Agrobacterium strains, and exposure to abiotic stresses during selection. Corresponding changes in the polyamine profiles of these cultures were also assessed. Strategies were then designed to minimize the negative effects of these factors on the cell survival and callus proliferation following Agrobacterium-mediated transformation. Some of these strategies, including the use of cell death protector genes and regulation of intracellular polyamine levels, will be discussed.

Whitefly Transmission and Efficient ssDNA Accumulation of Bean Golden Mosaic Geminivirus Require Functional Coat Protein

Bean golden mosaic geminivirus (BGMV) has a bipartite genome composed of two circular ssDNA components (DNA-A and DNA-B) and is transmitted by the whitefly, Bemisia tabaci. DNA-A encodes the viral replication proteins and the coat protein. To determine the role of BGMV coat protein systemic infection and whitefly transmission, two deletions and a restriction fragment inversion were introduced into the BGMV coat protein gene. All three coat protein mutants produced systemic infections when coinoculated with DNA-B onto Phaseolus vulgaris using electric discharge particle acceleration "particle gun." However, they were not sap transmissible and coat protein was not detected in mutant-infected plants. In addition, none of the mutants were transmitted by whiteflies. With all three mutants, ssDNA accumulation of DNA-A and DNA-B was reduced 25- to 50-fold and 3- to 10-fold, respectively, as compared to that of wild-type DNA. No effect on dsDNA-A accumulation was detected and there was 2- to 5-fold increase in dsDNA-B accumulation. Recombinants between the mutated DNA-A and DNA-B forms were identified when the inoculated coat protein mutant was linearized in the common region.

Autonomous underwater vehicles: development and implementation of time and energy efficient trajectories

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are increasingly used, both in military and civilian applications. These vehicles are limited mainly by the intelligence we give them and the life of their batteries. Research is active to extend vehicle autonomy in both aspects. Our intent is to give the vehicle the ability to adapt its behavior under different mission scenarios (emergency maneuvers versus long duration monitoring). This involves a search for optimal trajectories minimizing time, energy or a combination of both. Despite some success stories in AUV control, optimal control is still a very underdeveloped area. Adaptive control research has contributed to cost minimization problems, but vehicle design has been the driving force for advancement in optimal control research. We look to advance the development of optimal control theory by expanding the motions along which AUVs travel. Traditionally, AUVs have taken the role of performing the long data gathering mission in the open ocean with little to no interaction with their surroundings, MacIver et al. (2004). The AUV is used to find the shipwreck, and the remotely operated vehicle (ROV) handles the exploration up close. AUV mission profiles of this sort are best suited through the use of a torpedo shaped AUV, Bertram and Alvarez (2006), since straight lines and minimal (0 deg - 30 deg) angular displacements are all that are necessary to perform the transects and grid lines for these applications. However, the torpedo shape AUV lacks the ability to perform low-speed maneuvers in cluttered environments, such as autonomous exploration close to the seabed and around obstacles, MacIver et al. (2004). Thus, we consider an agile vehicle capable of movement in six degrees of freedom without any preference of direction.

Efficient control of an autonomous underwater vehicle while accounting for thruster failure

This paper is concerned with the design and implementation of control strategies onto a test-bed vehicle with six degrees-of-freedom. We design our trajectories to be efficient in time and in power consumption. Moreover, we also consider cases when actuator failure can arise and discuss alternate control strategies in this situation. Our calculations are supplemented by experimental results.

Implementation results of efficient trajectories on a testbed AUV

In this paper we consider the implementation of time and energy efficient trajectories onto a test-bed autonomous underwater vehicle. The trajectories are losely connected to the results of the application of the maximum principle to the controlled mechanical system. We use a numerical algorithm to compute efficient trajectories designed using geometric control theory to optimize a given cost function. Experimental results are shown for the time minimization problem.