Political selection and the relative age effect

In this paper we present substantial evidence for the existence of a bias in the distribution of births of leading US politicians in favor of those that have been the oldest in their cohort at school. This “relative age effect” has been proven to influence performance at school and in sports,but evidence on its impact on people’s vocational success has been rare. We find a marked break in the density of birthdate of politicians using a maximum likelihood test and McCrary’s (2008) nonparametric test. We conjecture that being relatively old in a peer group may create long term advantages which can create a significant role in the ability to succeed in a highly competitive environment like the race for top political offices in the USA. The magnitude of the effect we estimate is larger than what most other studies on the relative age effect for a broader (adult) population find, but is in general in line with studies that look at populations in high-competition environments.

A comment on "Inherited Trust and Growth"

Algan and Cahuc (2010) argue that “inherited trust” is a key factor in explaining growth rates across countries. They derive a measure of inherited trust by linking respondents’ “home countries: in the United States General Social Survey (1972-2004) and the 2000 wave of the World Values Survey. Algan and Cahuc then estimate trust levels for people born before 1910 (inherited trust in 1935) and afterwards (inherited trust in 2000). They show a strong link between economic growth rates and inherited trust. We do not challenge this result, but we do argue that: (1) The 2000 World Values Survey has many anomalous results; (2) the estimates for inherited trust in 1935 are mostly based upon tiny samples for most ethnic heritage groups in the General Social Survey; and (3) Algan and Cahuc’s findings are based upon two-tailed rather than one-tailed tests. We reestimate their model using the more reliable waves of the World Values Survey and find much weaker relationships between inherited trust in 1935 and trust in the home country. We also suggest caution in the overall measure of inherited trust in 1935.

Impact of information on intentions to vaccinate in a potential epidemic : Swine-origin Influenza A (H1N1)

Vaccination campaigns to prevent the spread of epidemics are successful only if the targeted populations subscribe to the recommendations of health authorities. However, because compulsory vaccination is hardly conceivable in modern democracies, governments need to convince their populations through efficient and persuasive information campaigns. In the context of the swine-origin A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic, we use an interactive study among the general public in the South of France, with 175 participants, to explore what type of information can induce change in vaccination intentions at both aggregate and individual levels. We find that individual attitudes to vaccination are based on rational appraisal of the situation, and that it is information of a purely scientific nature that has the only significant positive effect on intention to vaccinate.

Job changes, occupational mobility and human capital acquisition : an empirical analysis

Most individuals have more than one job or occupation in their working lives. Most employees are repeatedly faced with the choice of whether to remain in their present job (with the possibility of promotion), or quit to another job in the same occupation with a different firm, or - more radically change occupation. At each stage in an individual's career, the scope for future job or occupational mobility is largely conditioned by the type and quantity of their human capital. This paper presents an empirical study of the factors which link occupational mobility and the acquisition of either firm-based, occupation-specific or general human capital. The data employed are from a cohort of 1980 UK graduates drawn from the Department of Employment Survey 1987. The econometric work presents estimates of the role of firm-based training and occupation-specific training in the career mobility of qualified manpower in the first seven years in the labour market

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Resources for improving journalists' understanding of the economic and financial parameters of Australia's agricultural and commodity producers

The research addresses how an understanding of the fundamentals of economics will better inform general journalists who report on issues or events affecting rural and regional Australia. The research draws on practice-based experience of the author, formal economics studies, interviews with news editors from Australian television news organisations, and interviews from leading economists. A guidebook has also been written to help journalists apply economic theories to their reporting. The guidebook enables reporters to think strategically and consider the 'big picture' when they inform society about policies, commodity trade, the environment, or any issues involving rural and regional Australia.

Financial Markets, Institutions and Money [3rd ed.]

"The financial system is a key influencer of the health and efficiency of an economy. The role of the financial system is to gather money from people and businesses that currently have more money than they need and transfer it to those that can use it for either business or consumer expenditures. This flow of funds through financial markets and institutions in the Australian economy is huge (in the billions of dollars), affecting business profits, the rate of inflation, interest rates and the production of goods and services. In general, the larger the flow of funds and the more efficient the financial system, the greater the economic output and welfare in the economy. It is not possible to have a modern, complex economy such as that in Australia, without an efficient and sound financial system. The global financial crisis (GFC) of late 2007–09 (and the ensuing European debt crisis), where the global financial market was on the brink of collapse with only significant government intervention stopping a catastrophic global failure of the market, illustrated the importance of the financial system. Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 3rd edition introduces students to the financial system, its operations, and participants. The text offers a fresh, succinct analysis of the financial markets and discusses how the many participants in the financial system interrelate. This includes coverage of regulators, regulations and the role of the Reserve Bank of Australia, that ensure the system’s smooth running, which is essential to a modern economy. The text has been significantly revised to take into account changes in the financial world."---publisher website Table of Contents 1. The financial system - an overview 2. The Monetary Authorities 3. The Reserve Bank of Australia and interest rates 4. The level of interest rates 5. Mathematics of finance 6. Bond Prices and interest rate risk 7. The Structure of Interest Rates 8. Money Markets 9. Bond Markets 10. Equity Markets

A Tradable Permit System in an Intertemporal Economy

It is known that in an intertemporal competitive economy, a tradable permit system may not achieve efficiency without setting appropriate permit interest rates (i.e., rewards for holding permits). To find the rates, however, we need to know in advance the path of efficient permit prices, which is difficult to obtain. This study intends to solve this problem in two ways. First, we analyze a special case in which the permit interest rates are given by a simple rule. For example, if the marginal abatement cost of pollution emission is constant, then the appropriate rate is to equal the monetary interest rate. As is the case for global warming, if the damage is caused in the future far beyond the planning period of the environmental program, the appropriate rate coincides with the marginal self-recovery of environmental stock under certain conditions. As a second approach, we propose a tradable permit system with a permit bank, as a mechanism by which the permit interest rates are generated endogenously without governmental intervention other than the issuance of permits. However, we also show that this approach raises the problem of indeterminacy of the equilibrium. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

A network DEA quantity and quality-orientated production model: An application to Australian university research services

The motivation for this analysis is the recently developed Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA) program developed to assess the quality of research in Australia. The objective is to develop an appropriate empirical model that better represents the underlying production of higher education research. In general, past studies on university research performance have used standard DEA models with some quantifiable research outputs. However, these suffer from the twin maladies of an inappropriate production specification and a lack of consideration of the quality of output. By including the qualitative attributes of peer-reviewed journals, we develop a procedure that captures both quality and quantity, and apply it using a network DEA model. Our main finding is that standard DEA models tend to overstate the research efficiency of most Australian universities.

Born leaders: Political selection and the relative age effect in the US Congress

We present substantial evidence for the existence of a bias in the distribution of births of leading US politicians in favour of those who were the eldest in their cohort at school. This result adds to the research on the long-term effects of relative age among peers at school. We discuss parametric and non-parametric tests to identify this effect, and we show that it is not driven by measurement error, redshirting or a sorting effect of highly educated parents. The magnitude of the effect that we estimate is larger than what other studies on ‘relative age effects’ have found for broader populations but is in general consistent with research that looks at professional sportsmen. We also find that relative age does not seem to correlate with the quality of elected politicians.

Information preferences for the evaluation of coastal development impacts on ecosystem services: A multi-criteria assessment in the Australian context

Ecosystem based management requires the integration of various types of assessment indicators. Understanding stakeholders' information preferences is important, in selecting those indicators that best support management and policy. Both the preferences of decision-makers and the general public may matter, in democratic participatory management institutions. This paper presents a multi-criteria analysis aimed at quantifying the relative importance to these groups of economic, ecological and socio-economic indicators usually considered when managing ecosystem services in a coastal development context. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied within two nationwide surveys in Australia, and preferences of both the general public and decision-makers for these indicators are elicited and compared. Results show that, on average across both groups, the priority in assessing a generic coastal development project is for the ecological assessment of its impacts on marine biodiversity. Ecological assessment indicators are globally preferred to both economic and socio-economic indicators regardless of the nature of the impacts studied. These results are observed for a significantly larger proportion of decision-maker than general public respondents, questioning the extent to which the general public's preferences are well reflected in decision-making processes.

Altruism, Trade Policy, and the Optimality of Foreign Aid

There are many studies in the literature that deal with the welfare effects of income transfers between nations in a general equilibrium setting. An important impetus for this extensive literature was the demonstration of the transfer paradox; that the donor country could actually gain from a transfer of income to another, and that the recipient could lose as a result of the gift. The reason for this paradoxical result is that the transfer gives rise to a terms-of-trade effect that may be especially beneficial to the donor and detrimental to the recipient. Subsequently, many papers have established conditions under which this paradox will or will not occur. Early work by Samuelson (1954) was followed by demonstrations of paradoxes by Gale (1974), Ohyama (1974), Brecher and Bhagwati (1982) and Bhagwati, Brecher and Hatta 1983, 1985, and Dixit (1983)) among others.1 More recently, many studies have examined whether or not foreign aid — tied and untied — can be welfare improving for both the donor and the recipient (see, for example, Turunen-Red and Woodland (1988), Kemp and Wong (1993), Schweinberger (1990), Hatzipanayotou and Michael (1995), Lahiri and Raimondos-Moller 1995, 1997, Djajić, Lahiri and Raimondos-Møller 1996a, 1996b, and Lahiri, Raimondos-Møller, Wong and Woodland 1997.2

How to measure sustainable progress

In September, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), to be met by the year 2030. These important goals range from poverty eradication and improvements in education and health to the protection of global assets, including the oceans and a stable climate. Unfortunately, neither the SDGs nor their background documents explain how governments should judge whether the development programs they undertake to meet the goals are sustainable.

O Sistema uniforme de contas para a indústria hoteleira

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de Professor Doutor Filipe Ambrósio e co-orientação do Mestre António Melo

Mesure et Prévision de la Volatilité pour les Actifs Liquides

Le prix efficient est latent, il est contaminé par les frictions microstructurelles ou bruit. On explore la mesure et la prévision de la volatilité fondamentale en utilisant les données à haute fréquence. Dans le premier papier, en maintenant le cadre standard du modèle additif du bruit et le prix efficient, on montre qu’en utilisant le volume de transaction, les volumes d’achat et de vente, l’indicateur de la direction de transaction et la différence entre prix d’achat et prix de vente pour absorber le bruit, on améliore la précision des estimateurs de volatilité. Si le bruit n’est que partiellement absorbé, le bruit résiduel est plus proche d’un bruit blanc que le bruit original, ce qui diminue la misspécification des caractéristiques du bruit. Dans le deuxième papier, on part d’un fait empirique qu’on modélise par une forme linéaire de la variance du bruit microstructure en la volatilité fondamentale. Grâce à la représentation de la classe générale des modèles de volatilité stochastique, on explore la performance de prévision de différentes mesures de volatilité sous les hypothèses de notre modèle. Dans le troisième papier, on dérive de nouvelles mesures réalizées en utilisant les prix et les volumes d’achat et de vente. Comme alternative au modèle additif standard pour les prix contaminés avec le bruit microstructure, on fait des hypothèses sur la distribution du prix sans frictions qui est supposé borné par les prix de vente et d’achat.