Modeling marine ecosystem responses to global climate change: Where are we now and where should we be going?

Modeling of global climate change is moving from global circulation model (GCM)-type projections with coupled biogeochemical models to projections of ecological responses, including food web and upper trophic levels. Marine and coastal ecosystems are highly susceptible to the impacts of global climate change and also produce significant ecosystem services. The effects of global climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems involve a much wider array of effects than the usual temperature, sea level rise, and precipitation. This paper is an overview for a collection of 12 papers that examined various aspects of global climate change on marine ecosystems and comprise this special issue. We summarized the major features of the models and analyses in the papers to determine general patterns. A wide range of ecosystems were simulated using a diverse set of modeling approaches. Models were either 3-dimensional or used a few spatial boxes, and responses to global climate change were mostly expressed as changes from a baseline condition. Three issues were identified from the across-model comparison: (a) lack of standardization of climate change scenarios, (b) the prevalence of site-specific and even unique models for upper trophic levels, and (c) emphasis on hypothesis evaluation versus forecasting. We discuss why these issues are important as global climate change assessment continues to progress up the food chain, and, when possible, offer some initial steps for going forward.

A new procedure to optimize the selection of groups in a classification tree

Agglomerative cluster analyses encompass many techniques, which have been widely used in various fields of science. In biology, and specifically ecology, datasets are generally highly variable and may contain outliers, which increase the difficulty to identify the number of clusters. Here we present a new criterion to determine statistically the optimal level of partition in a classification tree. The criterion robustness is tested against perturbated data (outliers) using an observation or variable with values randomly generated. The technique, called Random Simulation Test (RST), is tested on (1) the well-known Iris dataset [Fisher, R.A., 1936. The use of multiple measurements in taxonomic problems. Ann. Eugenic. 7, 179–188], (2) simulated data with predetermined numbers of clusters following Milligan and Cooper [Milligan, G.W., Cooper, M.C., 1985. An examination of procedures for determining the number of clusters in a data set. Psychometrika 50, 159–179] and finally (3) is applied on real copepod communities data previously analyzed in Beaugrand et al. [Beaugrand, G., Ibanez, F., Lindley, J.A., Reid, P.C., 2002. Diversity of calanoid copepods in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas: species associations and biogeography. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 232, 179–195]. The technique is compared to several standard techniques. RST performed generally better than existing algorithms on simulated data and proved to be especially efficient with highly variable datasets.

Meiobenthos and macrobenthos are discrete entities and not artefacts of sampling a size continuum: Comment on Bett (2013)

Species size distributions for metazoan benthic invertebrates conform to the highly conservative bimodal pattern, regardless of the sieve mesh sizes or numbers of sieves used in their extraction. This pattern is not an artefact of sampling a size continuum as suggested by computer simulations using just 2 fixed mesh sizes in Bett (2013; Mar Ecol Prog Ser 487:1-6). Meiobenthos and macrobenthos are coherent entities, each with a distinct suite of functional attributes, and should not be regarded as a single unit for ecological modelling purposes.

Effect of phytoplankton size classes on bio-optical properties of phytoplankton in the Western Iberian coast: Application of models

Chlorophyll-a satellite products are routinely used in oceanography, providing a synoptic and global view of phytoplankton abundance. However, these products lack information on the community structure of the phytoplankton, which is crucial for ecological modelling and ecosystem studies. To assess the usefulness of existing methods to differentiate phytoplankton functional types (PFT) or phytoplankton size classes from satellite data, in-situ phytoplankton samples collected in the Western Iberian coast, on the North-East Atlantic, were analysed for pigments and absorption spectra. Water samples were collected in five different locations, four of which were located near the shore and another in an open-ocean, seamount region. Three different modelling approaches for deriving phytoplankton size classes were applied to the in situ data. Approaches tested provide phytoplankton size class information based on the input of pigments data (Brewin et al., 2010), absorption spectra data (Ciotti et al., 2002) or both (Uitz et al., 2008). Following Uitz et al. (2008), results revealed high variability in microphytoplankton chlorophyll-specific absorption coefficients, ranging from 0.01 to 0.09 m2 (mg chl)− 1 between 400 and 500 nm. This spectral analysis suggested, in one of the regions, the existence of small cells (< 20 μm) in the fraction of phytoplankton presumed to be microphytoplankton (based on diagnostic pigments). Ciotti et al. (2002) approach yielded the highest differences between modelled and measured absorption spectra for the locations where samples had high variability in community structure and cell size. The Brewin et al. (2010) pigment-based model was adjusted and a set of model coefficients are presented and recommended for future studies in offshore water of the Western Iberian coast.

Marine biodiversity and ecosystem function relationships:the potential for practical monitoring applications

There is an increasing demand for environmental assessments of the marine environment to include ecosystem function. However, existing schemes are predominantly based on taxonomic (i.e. structural) measures of biodiversity. Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function (BEF) relationships are suggested to provide a mechanism for converting taxonomic information into surrogates of ecosystem function. This review assesses the evidence for marine BEF relationships and their potential to be used in practical monitoring applications (i.e. operationalized). Five key requirements were identified for the practical application of BEF relationships: (1) a complete understanding of strength, direction and prevalence of marine BEF relationships, (2) an understanding of which biological components are influential within specific BEF relationships, (3) the biodiversity of the selected biological components can be measured easily, (4) the ecological mechanisms that are the most important for generating marine BEF relationships, i.e. identity effects or complementarity, are known and (5) the proportion of the overall functional variance is explained by biodiversity, and hence BEF relationships, has been established. Numerous positive and some negative BEF relationships were found within the literature, although many reproduced poorly the natural species richness, trophic structures or multiple functions of real ecosystems (requirement 1). Null relationships were also reported. The consistency of the positive and negative relationships was often low that compromised the ability to generalize BEF relationships and confident application of BEF within marine monitoring. Equally, some biological components and functions have received little or no investigation. Expert judgement was used to attribute biological components using spatial extent, presence and functional rate criteria (requirement 2). This approach highlighted the main biological components contributing the most to specific ecosystem functions, and that many of the particularly influential components were found to have received the least amount of research attention. The need for biodiversity to be measureable (requirement 3) is possible for most biological components although difficult within the functionally important microbes. Identity effects underpinned most marine BEF relationships (requirement 4). As such, processes that translated structural biodiversity measures into functional diversity were found to generate better BEF relationships. The analysis of the contribution made by biodiversity, over abiotic influences, to the total expression of a particular ecosystem function was rarely measured or considered (requirement 5). Hence it is not possible to determine the overall importance of BEF relationships within the total ecosystem functioning observed. In the few studies where abiotic factors had been considered, it was clear that these modified BEF relationships and have their own direct influence on functional rate. Based on the five requirements, the information required for immediate ‘operationalization’ of BEF relationships within marine functional monitoring is lacking. However, the concept of BEF inclusion within practical monitoring applications, supported by ecological modelling, shows promise for providing surrogate indicators of functioning.

A comparison of a range of models for dispersion in a partially stratified room

A comparative study of models used to predict contaminant dispersion in a partially stratified room is presented. The experiments were carried out in a ventilated test room, with an initially evenly dispersed pollutant. Air was extracted from the outlet in the ceiling of the room at 1 and 3 air changes per hour. A small temperature difference between the top and bottom of the room causes very low air velocities, and higher concentrations, in the lower half of the room. Grid-independent CFD calculations were compared with predictions from a zonal model and from CFD using a very coarse grid. All the calculations show broadly similar contaminant concentration decay rates for the three locations monitored in the experiments, with the zonal model performing surprisingly well. For the lower air change rate, the models predict a less well mixed contaminant distribution than the experimental measurements suggest. With run times of less than a few minutes, the zonal model is around two orders of magnitude faster than coarse-grid CFD and could therefore be used more easily in parametric studies and sensitivity analyses. For a more detailed picture of internal dispersion, a CFD study using coarse and standard grids may be more appropriate.

Characterisation of virus transport and attenuation in epikarst using short pulse and prolonged injection multi-tracer testing

Attenuation processes controlling virus fate and transport in the vadose zone of karstified systems can strongly influence groundwater quality. This research compares the breakthrough of two bacteriophage tracers (H40/1 and T7), with contrasting properties, at subsurface monitoring points following application onto an overlying composite sequence of thin organic soil and weathered limestone (epikarst). Short pulse multi-tracer test results revealed that T7 (Source concentration, Co=1.8x106pfu/mL) and H40/1(Co=5.9x106pfu/mL) could reach sampling points 10m below ground less than 30 minutes after tracer application. Contrasting deposition rates, determined from simulated tracer responses, reflected the potential of the ground to differentially attenuate viruses. Prolonged application of both T7 (Co=2.3x104pfu/mL) and H40/1 (Co=1.3x105pfu/mL) over a five hour period during a subsequent test, in which ionic strength levels observed at monitoring points rose consistently, corresponded to a rapid rise in T7 levels, followed by a gradual decline before the end of tracer injection; this reflected reaction-limited deposition in the system. T7’s response contrasted with that of H40/1, whose concentration remained constant over a three hour period before declining dramatically prior to the end of tracer injection. Subsequent application of lower ionic strength tracer-free flush water generated a rapid rise in H40/1 levels and a more gradual release of T7. Results highlight the benefits of employing prolonged injection multi-tracer tests for identifying processes not apparent from conventional short pulse tests. Study findings demonstrate that despite rapid transport rates, the epikarst is capable of physicochemical filtration of viruses and their remobilization, depending on virus type and hydrochemical conditions.

How trophic interaction strength depends on traits

A key problem in community ecology is to understand how individual-level traits give rise to population-level trophic interactions. Here, we propose a synthetic framework based on ecological considerations to address this question systematically. We derive a general functional form for the dependence of trophic interaction coefficients on trophically relevant quantitative traits of consumers and resources. The derived expression encompasses-and thus allows a unified comparison of-several functional forms previously proposed in the literature. Furthermore, we show how a community's, potentially low-dimensional, effective trophic niche space is related to its higher-dimensional phenotypic trait space. In this manner, we give ecological meaning to the notion of the "dimensionality of trophic niche space." Our framework implies a method for directly measuring this dimensionality. We suggest a procedure for estimating the relevant parameters from empirical data and for verifying that such data matches the assumptions underlying our derivation. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.


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Stability and dynamical behavior in a lake-model and implications for regime shifts in real lakes

A modified abstract version of the Comprehensive Aquatic Simulation Model (CASM) is found to exhibit three types of folded bifurcations due to nutrient loading. The resulting bifurcation diagrams account for nonlinear dynamics such as regime shifts and cyclic changes between clear-water state and turbid state that have actually been observed in real lakes. In particular, pulse-perturbation simulations based on the model presented suggest that temporal behaviors of real lakes after biomanipulations can be explained by pulse-dynamics in complex ecosystems, and that not only the amplitude (manipulated abundance of organisms) but also the phase (timing) is important for restoring lakes by biomanipulation. Ecosystem management in terms of possible irreversible changes in ecosystems induced by regime shifts is also discussed. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

The Movebank data model for animal tracking

Studies of animal movement are rapidly increasing as tracking technologies make it possible to collect more data of a larger variety of species. Comparisons of animal movement across sites, times, or species are key to asking questions about animal adaptation, responses to climate and land-use change. Thus, great gains can be made by sharing and exchanging animal tracking data. Here we present an animal movement data model that we use within the Movebank web application to describe tracked animals. The model facilitates data comparisons across a broad range of taxa, study designs, and technologies, and is based on the scientific questions that could be addressed with the data.

Treatment of estrogens and androgens in dairy wastewater by a constructed wetland system.

Constructed wetland systems (CWS) have been used as a low cost bio-filtration system to treat farm wastewater. While studies have shown that CWS are efficient in removing organic compounds and pathogens, there is limited data on the presence of hormones in this type of treatment system. The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of the CWS to reduce estrogenic and androgenic hormone concentration in dairy wastewater. This was achieved through a year long study on dairy wastewater samples obtained froma surface flow CWS. Analysis of hormonal levels was performed using a solid phase extraction (SPE) sample clean-up method, combined with reporter gene assays (RGAs) which incorporate relevant receptors capable of measuring total estrogenic or androgenic concentrations as low as 0.24 ng L1 and 6.9 ng L1 respectively. Monthly analysis showed a mean removal efficiency for estrogens of 95.2%, corresponding to an average residual concentration of 3.2 ng L1 17b-estradiol equivalent (EEQ), below the proposed lowest observable effect concentration (LOEC) of 10 ng L1. However, for one month a peak EEQ concentration of 115 ng L1 was only reduced to 18.8 ng L1. The mean androgenic activity peaked at 360 ng L1 and a removal efficiency of 92.1% left an average residual concentration of 32.3 ng L1 testosterone equivalent (TEQ). The results obtained demonstrate that this type of CWS is an efficient system for the treatment of hormones in dairy wastewater. However, additional design improvements may be required to further enhance removal efficiency of peak hormone concentrations.