Feasibility of "subjective" engineering assessments of road safety improvements : Bayesian analysis development

Regional safety program managers face a daunting challenge in the attempt to reduce deaths, injuries, and economic losses that result from motor vehicle crashes. This difficult mission is complicated by the combination of a large perceived need, small budget, and uncertainty about how effective each proposed countermeasure would be if implemented. A manager can turn to the research record for insight, but the measured effect of a single countermeasure often varies widely from study to study and across jurisdictions. The challenge of converting widespread and conflicting research results into a regionally meaningful conclusion can be addressed by incorporating "subjective" information into a Bayesian analysis framework. Engineering evaluations of crashes provide the subjective input on countermeasure effectiveness in the proposed Bayesian analysis framework. Empirical Bayes approaches are widely used in before-and-after studies and "hot-spot" identification; however, in these cases, the prior information was typically obtained from the data (empirically), not subjective sources. The power and advantages of Bayesian methods for assessing countermeasure effectiveness are presented. Also, an engineering evaluation approach developed at the Georgia Institute of Technology is described. Results are presented from an experiment conducted to assess the repeatability and objectivity of subjective engineering evaluations. In particular, the focus is on the importance, methodology, and feasibility of the subjective engineering evaluation for assessing countermeasures.

Soil carbon saturation : evaluation and corroboration by long-term incubations

Although current assessments of agricultural management practices on soil organic C (SOC) dynamics are usually conducted without any explicit consideration of limits to soil C storage, it has been hypothesized that the SOC pool has an upper, or saturation limit with respect to C input levels at steady state. Agricultural management practices that increase C input levels over time produce a new equilibrium soil C content. However, multiple C input level treatments that produce no increase in SOC stocks at equilibrium show that soils have become saturated with respect to C inputs. SOC storage of added C input is a function of how far a soil is from saturation level (saturation deficit) as well as C input level. We tested experimentally if C saturation deficit and varying C input levels influenced soil C stabilization of added C-13 in soils varying in SOC content and physiochemical characteristics. We incubated for 2.5 years soil samples from seven agricultural sites that were closer to (i.e., A-horizon) or further from (i.e., C-horizon) their C saturation limit. At the initiation of the incubations, samples received low or high C input levels of 13 C-labeled wheat straw. We also tested the effect of Ca addition and residue quality on a subset of these soils. We hypothesized that the proportion of C stabilized would be greater in samples with larger C Saturation deficits (i.e., the C- versus A-horizon samples) and that the relative stabilization efficiency (i.e., Delta SCC/Delta C input) would decrease as C input level increased. We found that C saturation deficit influenced the stabilization of added residue at six out of the seven sites and C addition level affected the stabilization of added residue in four sites, corroborating both hypotheses. Increasing Ca availability or decreasing residue quality had no effect on the stabilization of added residue. The amount of new C stabilized was significantly related to C saturation deficit, supporting the hypothesis that C saturation influenced C stabilization at all our sites. Our results suggest that soils with low C contents and degraded lands may have the greatest potential and efficiency to store added C because they are further from their saturation level. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological and social characterization of key resource areas in Kenyan rangelands

Key resource areas (KRAs), defined as dry season foraging zones for herbivores, were studied relative to the more extensive outlying rangeland areas (non-KRAs) in Kenya. Field surveys with pastoralists, ranchers, scientists and government officials delineated KRAs on the ground. Identified KRAs were mapped based on global positioning and local experts' information on KRAs accessibility and ecological attributes. Using the map of known KRAs and non-KRAs, we examined characteristics of soils, climate, topography, land use/cover attributes at KRAs relative to non-KRAs. How and why do some areas (KRAs) support herbivores during droughts when forage is scarce in other areas of the landscape? We hypothesized that KRAs have fundamental ecological and socially determined attributes that enable them to provide forage during critical times and we sought to characterize some of those attributes in this study. At the landscape level, KRAs took different forms based on forage availability during the dry season but generally occurred in locations of the landscape with aseasonal water availability and/or difficult to access areas during wet season forage abundance. Greenness trends for KRAs versus non-KRAs were evaluated with a 22-year dataset of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Field surveys of KRAs provided qualitative information on KRAs as dry season foraging zones. At the scale of the study, soil attributes did not significantly differ for KRAs compared to non-KRAs. Slopes of KRA were generally steeper compared to non-KRAs and elevation was higher at KRAs. Field survey respondents indicated that animals and humans generally avoid difficult to access hilly areas using them only when all other easily accessible rangeland is depleted of forage during droughts. Understanding the nature of KRAs will support identification, protection and restoration of critical forage hotspots for herbivores by strengthening rangeland inventory, monitoring, policy formulation, and conservation efforts to improve habitats and human welfare. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land use effects on soil carbon fractions in the southeastern United States. II. changes in soil carbon fractions along a forest to pasture chronosequence

Since land use change can have significant impacts on regional biogeochemistry, we investigated how conversion of forest and cultivation to pasture impact soil C and N cycling. In addition to examining total soil C, we isolated soil physiochemical C fractions in order to understand the mechanisms by which soil C is sequestered or lost. Total soil C did not change significantly over time following conversion from forest, though coarse (250-2,000 mum) particulate organic matter C increased by a factor of 6 immediately after conversion. Aggregate mean weight diameter was reduced by about 50% after conversion, but values were like those under forest after 8 years under pasture. Samples collected from a long-term pasture that was converted from annual cultivation more than 50 years ago revealed that some soil physical properties negatively impacted by cultivation were very slow to recover. Finally, our results indicate that soil macroaggregates turn over more rapidly under pasture than under forest and are less efficient at stabilizing soil C, whereas microaggregates from pasture soils stabilize a larger concentration of C than forest microaggregates. Since conversion from forest to pasture has a minimal impact on total soil C content in the Piedmont region of Virginia, United States, a simple C stock accounting system could use the same base soil C stock value for either type of land use. However, since the effects of forest to pasture conversion are a function of grassland management following conversion, assessments of C sequestration rates require activity data on the extent of various grassland management practices.

Grassland management activity data : current sources and future needs

Estimates of potential and actual C sequestration require areal information about various types of management activities. Forest surveys, land use data, and agricultural statistics contribute information enabling calculation of the impacts of current and historical land management on C sequestration in biomass (in forests) or in soil (in agricultural systems). Unfortunately little information exists on the distribution of various management activities that can impact soil C content in grassland systems. Limited information of this type restricts our ability to carry out bottom-up estimates of the current C balance of grasslands or to assess the potential for grasslands to act as C sinks with changes in management. Here we review currently available information about grassland management, how that information could be related to information about the impacts of management on soil C stocks, information that may be available in the future, and needs that remain to be filled before in-depth assessments may be carried out. We also evaluate constraints induced by variability in information sources within and between countries. It is readily apparent that activity data for grassland management is collected less frequently and on a coarser scale than data for forest or agricultural inventories and that grassland activity data cannot be directly translated into IPCC-type factors as is done for IPCC inventories of agricultural soils. However, those management data that are available can serve to delineate broad-scale differences in management activities within regions in which soil C is likely to change in response to changes in management. This, coupled with the distinct possibility of more intensive surveys planned in the future, may enable more accurate assessments of grassland C dynamics with higher resolution both spatially and in the number management activities.

Controls on soil respiration in semiarid soils

Soil respiration in semiarid ecosystems responds positively to temperature, but temperature is just one of many factors controlling soil respiration. Soil moisture can have an overriding influence, particularly during the dry/warm portions of the year. The purpose of this project was to evaluate the influence of soil moisture on the relationship between temperature and soil respiration. Soil samples collected from a range of sites arrayed across a climatic gradient were incubated under varying temperature and moisture conditions. Additionally, we evaluated the impact of substrate quality on short-term soil respiration responses by carrying out substrate-induced respiration assessments for each soil at nine different temperatures. Within all soil moisture regimes, respiration rates always increased with increase in temperature. For a given temperature, soil respiration increased by half (on average) across moisture regimes; Q(10) values declined with soil moisture from 3.2 (at -0.03 MPa) to 2.1 (-1.5 MPa). In summary, soil respiration was generally directly related to temperature, but responses were ameliorated with decrease in soil moisture. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing spatial infrastructures for the Q.U.T. Samford Ecological Research Facility.

Staff and students of the Surveying and Spatial Sciences discipline at QUT have worked collaboratively with the Institute of Sustainable Resources in the creation and development of spatial information layers and infrastructure to support multi-disciplinary research efforts at the Samford Ecological Research Facility (SERF). The SERF property is unique in that it provides staff and students with a semi-rural controlled research base for multiple users. This paper aims to describe the development of a number of spatial information layers and network of survey monuments that assist and support research infrastructure at SERF. A brief historical background about the facility is presented along with descriptions of the surveying and mapping activities undertaken. These broad ranging activities include introducing monument infrastructure and a geodetic control network; surveying activities for aerial photography ground-control targets including precise levelling with barcode instruments; development of an ortho-rectified image spatial information layer; Real-Time-Kinematic Global Positioning Systems (RTK-GPS) surveying for constructing 100metre confluence points/monuments to support science-based disciplines to undertake environmental research transects and long-term ecological sampling; and real-world learning initiative to assist with water engineering projects and student experiential learning. The spatial information layers and physical infrastructure have been adopted by two specific yet diverse user groups with an interest in the long-term research focus of SERF.

Derivation of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emission factors suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions and air quality assessments

Background, aim, and scope Urban motor vehicle fleets are a major source of particulate matter pollution, especially of ultrafine particles (diameters < 0.1 µm), and exposure to particulate matter has known serious health effects. A considerable body of literature is available on vehicle particle emission factors derived using a wide range of different measurement methods for different particle sizes, conducted in different parts of the world. Therefore the choice as to which are the most suitable particle emission factors to use in transport modelling and health impact assessments presented as a very difficult task. The aim of this study was to derive a comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations, covering the full size range of particles emitted, which are suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions. Materials and methods A large body of data available in the international literature on particle emission factors for motor vehicles derived from measurement studies was compiled and subjected to advanced statistical analysis, to determine the most suitable emission factors to use in modelling urban fleet emissions. Results This analysis resulted in the development of five statistical models which explained 86%, 93%, 87%, 65% and 47% of the variation in published emission factors for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 respectively. A sixth model for total particle mass was proposed but no significant explanatory variables were identified in the analysis. From the outputs of these statistical models, the most suitable particle emission factors were selected. This selection was based on examination of the statistical robustness of the statistical model outputs, including consideration of conservative average particle emission factors with the lowest standard errors, narrowest 95% confidence intervals and largest sample sizes, and the explanatory model variables, which were Vehicle Type (all particle metrics), Instrumentation (particle number and PM2.5), Road Type (PM10) and Size Range Measured and Speed Limit on the Road (particle volume). Discussion A multiplicity of factors need to be considered in determining emission factors that are suitable for modelling motor vehicle emissions, and this study derived a set of average emission factors suitable for quantifying motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions in developed countries. Conclusions The comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors presented in this study for different vehicle and road type combinations enable the full size range of particles generated by fleets to be quantified, including ultrafine particles (measured in terms of particle number). These emission factors have particular application for regions which may have a lack of funding to undertake measurements, or insufficient measurement data upon which to derive emission factors for their region. Recommendations and perspectives In urban areas motor vehicles continue to be a major source of particulate matter pollution and of ultrafine particles. It is critical that in order to manage this major pollution source methods are available to quantify the full size range of particles emitted for traffic modelling and health impact assessments.

Planning for sustainable urban futures : an ecological approach to sustainable urban development

In recent years, cities have shown increasing signs of environmental problems due to the negative impacts of urban activities. The degradation and depletion of natural resources, climate change, and development pressure on green areas have become major concerns for cities. In response to these problems, urban planning policies have shifted to a sustainable focus and authorities have begun to develop new strategies for improving the quality of urban ecosystems. An extremely important function of an urban ecosystem is to provide healthy and sustainable environments for both natural systems and communities. Therefore, ecological planning is a functional requirement in the establishment of sustainable built environment. With ecological planning, human needs are supplied while natural resources are used in the most effective and sustainable manner and ecological balance is sustained. Protecting human and environmental health, having healthy ecosystems, reducing environmental pollution and providing green spaces are just a few of the many benefits of ecological planning. In this context, this chapter briefly presents a short overview of the importance of the implementation of ecological planning into sustainable urban development. Furthermore, it presents a conceptual framework for a new methodology for developing sustainable urban ecosystems through ecological planning approach.

Ecological sustainable development: a study of the obstacles in Australia's construction industry

Ecological sustainable development (ESD), defined as that which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs, has much to offer in enhancing the quality of life of people and maintaining the environment for future generations by reducing the pollution of water, air and land, minimizing the destruction of irreplaceable ecosystems and cutting down the amount of toxic materials released. However, there is still much to do to achieve full implementation world-wide. This paper reports on three factors-design, attitudes and financial constraints - that are likely barriers to the implementation of ESD within the built environment in Australian industry. A postal questionnaire survey is described aimed at soliciting views on detailed aspects of the factors. This shows that ESD in the Australian built environment has also not been successfully implemented. The main reason is found to be due to the perceived costs involved - the cost of using environmental materials being a predominant factor. The design of ESD, being more sophisticated, also is perceived as involving stakeholders in more expense. There also appears to be a lack of knowledge and a lack of specialised and interdisciplinary design teams available in the Australian context.

Influence of historical landscapes, drainage evolution and ecological traits on patterns of genetic diversity in Southeast Asian freshwater snakehead fishes

Snakehead fishes in the family Channidae are obligate freshwater fishes represented by two extant genera, the African Parachannna and the Asian Channa. These species prefer still or slow flowing water bodies, where they are top predators that exercise high levels of parental care, have the ability to breathe air, can tolerate poor water quality, and interestingly, can aestivate or traverse terrestrial habitat in response to seasonal changes in freshwater habitat availability. These attributes suggest that snakehead fishes may possess high dispersal potential, irrespective of the terrestrial barriers that would otherwise constrain the distribution of most freshwater fishes. A number of biogeographical hypotheses have been developed to account for the modern distributions of snakehead fishes across two continents, including ancient vicariance during Gondwanan break-up, or recent colonisation tracking the formation of suitable climatic conditions. Taxonomic uncertainty also surrounds some members of the Channa genus, as geographical distributions for some taxa across southern and Southeast (SE) Asia are very large, and in one case is highly disjunct. The current study adopted a molecular genetics approach to gain an understanding of the evolution of this group of fishes, and in particular how the phylogeography of two Asian species may have been influenced by contemporary versus historical levels of dispersal and vicariance. First, a molecular phylogeny was constructed based on multiple DNA loci and calibrated with fossil evidence to provide a dated chronology of divergence events among extant species, and also within species with widespread geographical distributions. The data provide strong evidence that trans-continental distribution of the Channidae arose as a result of dispersal out of Asia and into Africa in the mid–Eocene. Among Asian Channa, deep divergence among lineages indicates that the Oligocene-Miocene boundary was a time of significant species radiation, potentially associated with historical changes in climate and drainage geomorphology. Mid-Miocene divergence among lineages suggests that a taxonomic revision is warranted for two taxa. Deep intra-specific divergence (~8Mya) was also detected between C. striata lineages that occur sympatrically in the Mekong River Basin. The study then examined the phylogeography and population structure of two major taxa, Channa striata (the chevron snakehead) and the C. micropeltes (the giant snakehead), across SE Asia. Species specific microsatellite loci were developed and used in addition to a mitochondrial DNA marker (Cyt b) to screen neutral genetic variation within and among wild populations. C. striata individuals were sampled across SE Asia (n=988), with the major focus being the Mekong Basin, which is the largest drainage basin in the region. The distributions of two divergent lineages were identified and admixture analysis showed that where they co-occur they are interbreeding, indicating that after long periods of evolution in isolation, divergence has not resulted in reproductive isolation. One lineage is predominantly confined to upland areas of northern Lao PDR to the north of the Khorat Plateau, while the other, which is more closely related to individuals from southern India, has a widespread distribution across mainland SE Asian and Sumatra. The phylogeographical pattern recovered is associated with past river networks, and high diversity and divergence among all populations sampled reveal that contemporary dispersal is very low for this taxon, even where populations occur in contiguous freshwater habitats. C. micropeltes (n=280) were also sampled from across the Mekong River Basin, focusing on the lower basin where it constitutes an important wild fishery resource. In comparison with C. striata, allelic diversity and genetic divergence among populations were extremely low, suggesting very recent colonisation of the greater Mekong region. Populations were significantly structured into at least three discrete populations in the lower Mekong. Results of this study have implications for establishing effective conservation plans for managing both species, that represent economically important wild fishery resources for the region. For C. micropeltes, it is likely that a single fisheries stock in the Tonle Sap Great Lake is being exploited by multiple fisheries operations, and future management initiatives for this species in this region will need to account for this. For C. striata, conservation of natural levels of genetic variation will require management initiatives designed to promote population persistence at very localised spatial scales, as the high level of population structuring uncovered for this species indicates that significant unique diversity is present at this fine spatial scale.

Extending Alexander’s ecological dominance-social competition (EDSC) evolutional model

Alexander’s Ecological Dominance and Social Competition (EDSC) model currently provides the most comprehensive overview of human traits in the development of a theory of human evolution and sociality (Alexander, 1990; Finn, Geary & Ward, 2005; Irons, 2005). His model provides a basis for explaining the evolution of human socio-cognitive abilities. Our paper examines the extension of Alexander’s model to incorporate the human trait of information behavior in synergy with ecological dominance and social competition as a human socio-cognitive competence. This paper discusses the various interdisciplinary perspectives exploring how evolution has shaped information behavior and why information behavior is emerging as an important human socio-cognitive competence. This paper outlines these issues, including the extension of Spink and Currier’s (2006a,b) evolution of information behavior model towards a more integrated understanding of how information behaviors have evolved (Spink & Cole, 2006).

Extending Alexander’s ecological dominance-social competition model : information behavior adaptation

Alexander’s Ecological Dominance and Social Competition (EDSC) model currently provides the most comprehensive overview of human traits in the development of a theory of human evolution and sociality (Alexander, 1990; Finn, Geary & Ward, 2005; Irons, 2005). His model provides a basis for explaining the evolution of human socio-cognitive abilities. Our paper examines the extension of Alexander’s model to incorporate the human trait of information behavior in synergy with ecological dominance and social competition as a human socio-cognitive competence. This paper discusses the various interdisciplinary perspectives exploring how evolution has shaped information behavior and why information behavior is emerging as an important human socio-cognitive competence. This paper outlines these issues, including the extension of Spink and Currier’s (2006a,b) evolution of information behavior model towards a more integrated understanding of how information behaviors have evolved (Spink & Cole, 2006).

Networks cities and ecological habitats

As the world’s rural populations continue to migrate from farmland to sprawling cities, transport networks form an impenetrable maze within which monocultures of urban form erupt from the spaces in‐between. These urban monocultures are as problematic to human activity in cities as cropping monocultures are to ecosystems in regional landscapes. In China, the speed of urbanisation is exacerbating the production of mono‐functional private and public spaces. Edges are tightly controlled. Barriers and management practices at these boundaries are discouraging the formation of new synergistic relationships, critical in the long‐term stability of ecosystems that host urban habitats. Some urban planners, engineers, urban designers, architects and landscape architects have recognised these shortcomings in contemporary Chinese cities. The ideology of sustainability, while critically debated, is bringing together thinking people in these and other professions under the umbrella of an ecological ethic. This essay aims to apply landscape ecology theory, a conceptual framework used by many professionals involved in land development processes, to a concept being developed by BAU International called Networks Cities: a city with its various land uses arranged in nets of continuity, adjacency, and superposition. It will consider six lesser‐known concepts in relation to creating enhanced human activity along (un)structured edges between proposed nets and suggest new frontiers that might be challenged in an eco‐city. Ecological theory suggests that sustaining biodiversity in regions and landscapes depends on habitat distribution patterns. Flora and fauna biologists have long studied edge habitats and have been confounded by the paradox that maximising the breadth of edges is detrimental to specialist species but favourable to generalist species. Generalist species of plants and animals tolerate frequent change in the landscape, frequenting two or more habitats for their survival. Specialist species are less tolerant of change, having specific habitat requirements during their life cycle. Protecting species richness then may be at odds with increasing mixed habitats or mixed‐use zones that are dynamic places where diverse activities occur. Forman (1995) in his book Land Mosaics however argues that these two objectives of land use management are entirely compatible. He postulates that an edge may be comprised of many small patches, corridors or convoluting boundaries of large patches. Many ecocentrists now consider humans to be just another species inhabiting the ecological environments of our cities. Hence habitat distribution theory may be useful in planning and designing better human habitats in a rapidly urbanising context like China. In less‐constructed environments, boundaries and edges provide important opportunities for the movement of multi‐habitat species into, along and from adjacent land use areas. For instance, invasive plants may escape into a national park from domestic gardens while wildlife may forage on garden plants in adjoining residential areas. It is at these interfaces that human interactions too flow backward and forward between land types. Spray applications of substances by farmers on cropland may disturb neighbouring homeowners while suburban residents may help themselves to farm produce on neighbouring orchards. Edge environments are some of the most dynamic and contested spaces in the landscape. Since most of us require access to at least two or three habitats diurnally, weekly, monthly or seasonally, their proximity to each other becomes critical in our attempts to improve the sustainability of our cities.

Shijiazhuang ecological landscape planning and design comprehensive improvement program for the Hutuo River

International practice-led design research in landscape architecture has identified water quality and water availability as two of the most important environmental issues in developing countries. China is particularly focused on improving water supplies for its rural and urban populations. However a significant gap in knowledge exists between urban planning and environmental engineering in China as to how to design Chinese public open spaces to reduce water pollution in urban rivers. This project responded to traditional zoning methods in Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, by proposing a range of water sensitive design innovations from lake construction to planting design to modify standardised engineering solutions in a Chinese context.