How stable are 20th century calibration models? A high-resolution summer temperature reconstruction for the eastern Swiss Alps back to A.D. 1580 derived from proglacial varved sediments

We found a significant positive correlation between local summer air temperature (May-September) and the annual sediment mass accumulation rate (MAR) in Lake Silvaplana (46°N, 9°E, 1800 m a.s.l.) during the twentieth century (r = 0.69, p < 0.001 for decadal smoothed series). Sediment trap data (2001-2005) confirm this relation with exceptionally high particle yields during the hottest summer of the last 140 years in 2003. On this base we developed a decadal-scale summer temperature reconstruction back to AD 1580. Surprisingly, the comparison of our reconstruction with two other independent regional summer temperature reconstructions (based on tree-rings and documentary data) revealed a significant negative correlation for the pre-1900 data (ie, late ‘Little Ice Age’). This demonstrates that the correlation between MAR and summer temperature is not stable in time and the actualistic principle does not apply in this case. We suggest that different climatic regimes (modern/‘Little Ice Age’) lead to changing state conditions in the catchment and thus to considerably different sediment transport mechanisms. Therefore, we calibrated our MAR data with gridded early instrumental temperature series from AD 1760-1880 (r = -0.48, p < 0.01 for decadal smoothed series) to properly reconstruct the late LIA climatic conditions. We found exceptionally low temperatures between AD 1580 and 1610 (0.75°C below twentieth-century mean) and during the late Maunder Minimum from AD 1680 to 1710 (0.5°C below twentieth-century mean). In general, summer temperatures did not experience major negative departures from the twentieth-century mean during the late ‘Little Ice Age’. This compares well with the two existing independent regional reconstructions suggesting that the LIA in the Alps was mainly a phenomenon of the cold season.

Late Pleistocene glaciation in the Central Andes: Temperature versus humidity control A case study from the eastern Bolivian Andes (17°S) and regional synthesis

A glacier–climate model was used to calculate climatic conditions in a test site on the east Andean slope around Cochabamba (17°S, Bolivia) for the time of the maximum Late Pleistocene glaciation. Results suggest a massive temperature reduction of about − 6.4 °C (+ 1.4/− 1.3 °C), combined with annual precipitation rates of about 1100 mm (+ 570 mm/− 280 mm). This implies no major change in annual precipitation compared with today. Summer precipitation was the source for the humidity in the past, as is the case today. This climate scenario argues for a maximum advance of the paleo-glaciers in the eastern cordillera during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 20 ka BP), which is confirmed by exposure age dates. In a synthesized view over the central Andes, the results point to an increased summer precipitation-driven Late Glacial (15–10 ka BP) maximum advance in the western part of the Altiplano (18°S–23°S), a temperature-driven maximum advance during full glacial times (LGM) in the eastern cordillera, and a pre- and post-LGM (32 ka BP/14 ka BP) maximum advance around 30°S related to increased precipitation and reduced temperature on the western slope of the Andes. The results indicate the importance of understanding the seasonality and details of the mass balance–climate interaction in order to disentangle drivers for the observed regionally asynchronous past glaciations in the central Andes.

Estimation of vertical groundwater fluxes into a streambed through continuous temperature profile monitoring and the relationship of groundwater fluxes to coaster brook trout spawning habitat

We hypothesized that the spatial distribution of groundwater inflows through river bottom sediments is a critical factor associated with the selection of coaster brook trout (a life history variant of Salvelinus fontinalis,) spawning sites. An 80-m reach of the Salmon Trout River, in the Huron Mountains of the upper peninsula of Michigan, was selected to test the hypothesis based on long-term documentation of coaster brook trout spawning at this site. Throughout this site, the river is relatively similar along its length with regard to stream channel and substrate features. A monitoring well system consisting of an array of 27 wells was installed to measure subsurface temperatures underneath the riverbed over a 13-month period. The monitoring well locations were separated into areas where spawning has and has not been observed. Over 200,000 total temperature measurements were collected from 5 depths within each of the 27 monitoring wells. Temperatures within the substrate at the spawning area were generally cooler and less variable than river temperatures. Substrate temperatures in the non-spawning area were generally warmer, more variable, and closely tracked temporal variations in river temperatures. Temperature data were inverted to obtain subsurface groundwater velocities using a numerical approximation of the heat transfer equation. Approximately 45,000 estimates of groundwater velocities were obtained. Estimated velocities in the spawning and non-spawning areas confirmed that groundwater velocities in the spawning area were primarily in the upward direction, and were generally greater in magnitude than velocities in the non-spawning area. In the non-spawning area there was a greater occurrence of velocities in the downward direction, and velocity estimates were generally lesser in magnitude than in the spawning area. Both the temperature and velocity results confirm the hypothesis that spawning sites correspond to areas of significant groundwater influx to the river bed.

Mineralogy-based quantitative precipitation and temperature reconstructions from annually laminated lake sediments (Swiss Alps) since AD 1580

[1] We present quantitative autumn, summer and annual precipitation and summer temperature reconstructions from proglacial annually laminated Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps back to AD 1580. We used X-ray diffraction peak intensity ratios of minerals in the sediment layers (quartz qz, plagioclase pl, amphibole am, mica mi) that are diagnostic for different source areas and hydro-meteorological transport processes in the catchment. XRD data were calibrated with meteorological data (AD 1800/1864–1950) and revealed significant correlations: mi/pl with SON precipitation (r = 0.56, p < 0.05) and MJJAS precipitation (r = 0.66, p < 0.01); qz/mi with MJJAS temperature (r = −0.72, p < 0.01)and qz/am with annual precipitation (r = −0.54, p < 0.05). Geological catchment settings and hydro-meteorological processes provide deterministic explanations for the correlations. Our summer temperature reconstruction reproduces the typical features of past climate variability known from independent data sets. The precipitation reconstructions show a LIA climate moister than today. Exceptionally wet periods in our reconstruction coincide with regional glacier advances.

High-resolution summer temperature reconstruction from Lake Silvaplana based on in-situ reflectance spectroscopy

Annually laminated (varved) sediments of proglacial Lake Silvaplana (46 ̊27’N, 9 ̊48’E, 1791 m a.s.l., Engadine, eastern Swiss Alps) provide an excellent archive for quantitative high-resolution (seasonal – annual) reconstruction of high- and lowfrequency climate signals back to AD 1580. The chronology of the core is based on varve counting, Cs-137, Pb-210 and event stratigraphy. In this study we present a reconstruction based on in-situ reflectance spectroscopy. In situ reflectance spectroscopy is known as a cost- and time-effective non destructtive method for semi-quantitative analysis of pigments (e.g., chlorines and carotenoids) and of lithoclastic sediment fractions. Reflectance-dependent absorption (RDA) was measured with a Gretac Macbeth spectrolino at 2 mm resolution. The spectral coverage ranges from 380 nm to 730 nm at 10 nm band resolution. In proglacial Lake Silvaplana, 99% of the sediment is lithoclastic prior to AD 1950. Therefore, we concentrate on absorption features that are characteristic for lithoclastic sediment fractions. In Lake Silvaplana, two significant correlations that are stable in time were found between RDA typical for lithoclastics and meteorological data: (1) the time series R 570 /R 630 (ratio between RDA at 570 nm and 630 nm) of varves in Lake Silvaplana and May to October temperatures at nearby station of Sils correlate highly significantly (calibration period AD 1864 – 1951, r = 0.74, p < 0.01 for 5ptsmoothed series; RMSE is 0.28 ̊C, RE = 0.41 and CE = 0.38), and (2) the minimum reflectance within the 690nm band (min690) data correlate with May to October (calibration period AD 1864 – 1951, r = 0.68, p < 0.01 for 5pt-smoothed series; RMSE = 0.22 ̊C, RE = 0.5, CE = 0.31). Both proxy series (min690nm and R 570 /R 630 values) are internally highly consistent (r = 0.8, p < 0.001). In proglacial Lake Silvaplana the largest amount of sediment is transported by glacial meltwater. The melting season spans approximately from May to October, which gives us a good understanding of the geophysical processes explaining the correlations between lithoclastic proxies and the meteorological data. The reconstructions were extended back to AD 1580 and show a broad corresponddence with fully independent reconstructions from tree rings and documentary data.

Modern sea surface productivity and temperature estimations off Chile as detected by coccolith accumulation rates

Recent coccoliths from 74 surface sediment samples recovered from the southeastern Pacific off Chile were examined quantitatively to investigate modern regional gradients of sea surface productivity and temperature. All findings are based on coccolith accumulation rates. Therefore an approach was designed to estimate recent sedimentation rates based on 210Pb and bulk chemistry analyses of the same set of surface samples. Highest total coccolith accumulation rates were found off north-central Chile, where seasonal upwelling takes place. Based on a multiple linear regression between calculated coccolith accumulation rates and World Ocean Atlas derived sea surface temperatures, a calibration model to reconstruct annual average temperatures of the uppermost 75 m of the water column is provided. The model was cross-validated and the SST estimates were compared with SST observed and SST estimates based on diatoms and planktonic foraminifera, showing a good correlation.

A chrysophyte stomatocyst-based reconstruction of cold-season air temperature from Alpine Lake Silvaplana (AD 1500–2003); methods and concepts for quantitative inferences

Relatively little is known about past cold-season temperature variability in high-Alpine regions because of a lack of natural cold-season temperature proxies as well as under-representation of high-altitude sites in meteorological, early-instrumental and documentary data sources. Recent studies have shown that chrysophyte stomatocysts, or simply cysts (sub-fossil algal remains of Chrysophyceae and Synurophyceae), are among the very few natural proxies that can be used to reconstruct cold-season temperatures. This study presents a quantitative, high-resolution (5-year), cold-season (Oct–May) temperature reconstruction based on sub-fossil chrysophyte stomatocysts in the annually laminated (varved) sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, SE Switzerland (1,789 m a.s.l.), since AD 1500. We first explore the method used to translate an ecologically meaningful variable based on a biological proxy into a simple climate variable. A transfer function was applied to reconstruct the ‘date of spring mixing’ from cyst assemblages. Next, statistical regression models were tested to convert the reconstructed ‘dates of spring mixing’ into cold-season surface air temperatures with associated errors. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach are thoroughly tested. One much-debated, basic assumption for reconstructions (‘stationarity’), which states that only the environmental variable of interest has influenced cyst assemblages and the influence of confounding variables is negligible over time, is addressed in detail. Our inferences show that past cold-season air-temperature fluctuations were substantial and larger than those of other temperature reconstructions for Europe and the Alpine region. Interestingly, in this study, recent cold-season temperatures only just exceed those of previous, multi-decadal warm phases since AD 1500. These findings highlight the importance of local studies to assess natural climate variability at high altitudes.

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

A 950 yr temperature reconstruction from Duckhole Lake, southern Tasmania, Australia

A lack of quantitative high resolution paleoclimate data from the Southern Hemisphere limits the ability to examine current trends within the context of long-term natural climate variability. This study presents a temperature reconstruction for southern Tasmania based on analyses of a sediment core from Duckhole Lake (43.365°S, 146.875°E). The relationship between non-destructive whole core scanning reflectance spectroscopy measurements in the visible spectrum (380–730 nm) and the instrumental temperature record (ad 1911–2000) was used to develop a calibration-in-time reflectance spectroscopy-based temperature model. Results showed that a trough in reflectance from 650 to 700 nm, which represents chlorophyll and its derivatives, was significantly correlated to annual mean temperature. A calibration model was developed (R = 0.56, p auto < 0.05, root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) = 0.21°C, five-year filtered data, calibration period 1911–2000) and applied down-core to reconstruct annual mean temperatures in southern Tasmania over the last c. 950 years. This indicated that temperatures were initially cool c. ad 1050, but steadily increased until the late ad 1100s. After a brief cool period in the ad 1200s, temperatures again increased. Temperatures steadily decreased during the ad 1600s and remained relatively stable until the start of the 20th century when they rapidly decreased, before increasing from ad 1960s onwards. Comparisons with high resolution temperature records from western Tasmania, New Zealand and South America revealed some similarities, but also highlighted differences in temperature variability across the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These are likely due to a combination of factors including the spatial variability in climate between and within regions, and differences between records that document seasonal (i.e. warm season/late summer) versus annual temperature variability. This highlights the need for further records from the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in order to constrain past natural spatial and seasonal/annual temperature variability in the region, and to accurately identify and attribute changes to natural variability and/or anthropogenic activities.