Essays on oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic activity

Dans cette thèse, je me suis intéressé aux effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur l'activité macroéconomique selon la cause sous-jacente ces fluctuations. Les modèles économiques utilisés dans cette thèse sont principalement les modèles d'équilibre général dynamique stochastique (de l'anglais Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE) et les modèles Vecteurs Autorégressifs, VAR. Plusieurs études ont examiné les effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur les principaux variables macroéconomiques, mais très peu d'entre elles ont fait spécifiquement le lien entre les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole et la l'origine de ces fluctuations. Pourtant, il est largement admis dans les études plus récentes que les augmentations du prix du pétrole peuvent avoir des effets très différents en fonction de la cause sous-jacente de cette augmentation. Ma thèse, structurée en trois chapitres, porte une attention particulière aux sources de fluctuations du prix de pétrole et leurs impacts sur l'activité macroéconomique en général, et en particulier sur l'économie du Canada. Le premier chapitre examine comment les chocs d'offre de pétrole, de demande agrégée, et de demande de précaution de pétrole affectent l'économie du Canada, dans un Modèle d'équilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique estimé. L'estimation est réalisée par la méthode Bayésienne, en utilisant des données trimestrielles canadiennes sur la période 1983Q1 à 2010Q4. Les résultats montrent que les effets dynamiques des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les principaux agrégats macro-économiques canadiens varient en fonction de leurs sources. En particulier, une augmentation de 10% du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs positifs sur la demande globale étrangère a un effet positif significatif de l'ordre de 0,4% sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact et l'effet reste positif sur tous les horizons. En revanche, une augmentation du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs négatifs sur l'offre de pétrole ou par des chocs positifs de la demande de pétrole de précaution a un effet négligeable sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact, mais provoque une baisse légèrement significative après l'impact. En outre, parmi les chocs pétroliers identifiés, les chocs sur la demande globale étrangère ont été relativement plus important pour expliquer la fluctuation des principaux agrégats macroéconomiques du Canada au cours de la période d'estimation. Le deuxième chapitre utilise un modèle Structurel VAR en Panel pour examiner les liens entre les chocs de demande et d'offre de pétrole et les ajustements de la demande de travail et des salaires dans les industries manufacturières au Canada. Le modèle est estimé sur des données annuelles désagrégées au niveau industriel sur la période de 1975 à 2008. Les principaux résultats suggèrent qu'un choc positif de demande globale a un effet positif sur la demande de travail et les salaires, à court terme et à long terme. Un choc négatif sur l'offre de pétrole a un effet négatif relativement faible au moment de l'impact, mais l'effet devient positif après la première année. En revanche, un choc positif sur la demande précaution de pétrole a un impact négatif à tous les horizons. Les estimations industrie-par-industrie confirment les précédents résultats en panel. En outre, le papier examine comment les effets des différents chocs pétroliers sur la demande travail et les salaires varient en fonction du degré d'exposition commerciale et de l'intensité en énergie dans la production. Il ressort que les industries fortement exposées au commerce international et les industries fortement intensives en énergie sont plus vulnérables aux fluctuations du prix du pétrole causées par des chocs d'offre de pétrole ou des chocs de demande globale. Le dernier chapitre examine les implications en terme de bien-être social de l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole sur le marché mondial à l'aide d'un modèle DSGE de trois pays dont deux pays importateurs de pétrole et un pays exportateur de pétrole. Les gains de bien-être sont mesurés par la variation compensatoire de la consommation sous deux règles de politique monétaire. Les principaux résultats montrent que l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole a des effets négatifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans chacun des deux pays importateurs de pétrole, alors qu'il a des effets positifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans le pays exportateur de pétrole, quelle que soit la règle de politique monétaire. Par ailleurs, l'inclusion de la dépréciation du taux de change dans les règles de politique monétaire permet de réduire les coûts sociaux pour les pays importateurs de pétrole. Enfin, l'ampleur des effets de bien-être dépend du niveau d'inventaire en pétrole à l'état stationnaire et est principalement expliquée par les chocs sur les inventaires en pétrole.

REGIONES EN CUNDINAMARCA Y LA CALIDAD DE LA VIDA.

Orthodox economic models are good if one accepts the ceteris paribus. But this is possible if we accept that cultures are uniform, exogenous to the economic and  the consumer has features such as equality of rational structure, among others. Similarly it is assumed mobility and economic geography optimizations when it comes to internal demographic flows and  the migration as international movements, and generally any expression of human activity. Time is needed to take each event as "almost one-off", even though some aspects have similarities that prevent theoretically start from scratch in each analysis presented.What determines what is different? On the one hand, the historical basis assumed from the  reasons of social construction of market, the reasons of social construction since ancient thought and the reasons for government social construction. Furthermore, the decisions, from the historical basis, are made by agents and contributions of the agencies, at their level, degree and intensity, to iterate it consolidate or change the social interactions and / or institutions established as and  in accordance with rules, routines and habits. This is why it is interesting to develop the "neighborhood effects" to help understand the social mobility of the Department of Cundinamarca. This in order to contribute to resolving the question about why the mobility of people and what effect between territoriality and another and to itself?.

Soft budget constraints in a dynamic general equilibrium model

This paper considers an overlapping generations model in which capital investment is financed in a credit market with adverse selection. Lenders’ inability to commit ex-ante not to bailout ex-post, together with a wealthy position of entrepreneurs gives rise to the soft budget constraint syndrome, i.e. the absence of liquidation of poor performing firms on a regular basis. This problem arises endogenously as a result of the interaction between the economic behavior of agents, without relying on political economy explanations. We found the problem more binding along the business cycle, providing an explanation to creditors leniency during booms in some LatinAmerican countries in the late seventies and early nineties.

Optimal management of natural resources. Accounting for heterogeneity

Dynamic optimization methods have become increasingly important over the last years in economics. Within the dynamic optimization techniques employed, optimal control has emerged as the most powerful tool for the theoretical economic analysis. However, there is the need to advance further and take account that many dynamic economic processes are, in addition, dependent on some other parameter different than time. One can think of relaxing the assumption of a representative (homogeneous) agent in macro- and micro-economic applications allowing for heterogeneity among the agents. For instance, the optimal adaptation and diffusion of a new technology over time, may depend on the age of the person that adopted the new technology. Therefore, the economic models must take account of heterogeneity conditions within the dynamic framework. This thesis intends to accomplish two goals. The first goal is to analyze and revise existing environmental policies that focus on defining the optimal management of natural resources over time, by taking account of the heterogeneity of environmental conditions. Thus, the thesis makes a policy orientated contribution in the field of environmental policy by defining the necessary changes to transform an environmental policy based on the assumption of homogeneity into an environmental policy which takes account of heterogeneity. As a result the newly defined environmental policy will be more efficient and likely also politically more acceptable since it is tailored more specifically to the heterogeneous environmental conditions. Additionally to its policy orientated contribution, this thesis aims making a methodological contribution by applying a new optimization technique for solving problems where the control variables depend on two or more arguments --- the so-called two-stage solution approach ---, and by applying a numerical method --- the Escalator Boxcar Train Method --- for solving distributed optimal control problems, i.e., problems where the state variables, in addition to the control variables, depend on two or more arguments. Chapter 2 presents a theoretical framework to determine optimal resource allocation over time for the production of a good by heterogeneous producers, who generate a stock externalit and derives government policies to modify the behavior of competitive producers in order to achieve optimality. Chapter 3 illustrates the method in a more specific context, and integrates the aspects of quality and time, presenting a theoretical model that allows to determine the socially optimal outcome over time and space for the problem of waterlogging in irrigated agricultural production. Chapter 4 of this thesis concentrates on forestry resources and analyses the optimal selective-logging regime of a size-distributed forest.

Maximizing revenue in Grid markets using an economically enhanced resource manager

Traditional resource management has had as its main objective the optimization of throughput, based on parameters such as CPU, memory, and network bandwidth. With the appearance of Grid markets, new variables that determine economic expenditure, benefit and opportunity must be taken into account. The Self-organizing ICT Resource Management (SORMA) project aims at allowing resource owners and consumers to exploit market mechanisms to sell and buy resources across the Grid. SORMA's motivation is to achieve efficient resource utilization by maximizing revenue for resource providers and minimizing the cost of resource consumption within a market environment. An overriding factor in Grid markets is the need to ensure that the desired quality of service levels meet the expectations of market participants. This paper explains the proposed use of an economically enhanced resource manager (EERM) for resource provisioning based on economic models. In particular, this paper describes techniques used by the EERM to support revenue maximization across multiple service level agreements and provides an application scenario to demonstrate its usefulness and effectiveness. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Enforcing service level agreements using an economically enhanced resource manager

Traditional resource management has had as its main objective the optimisation of throughput, based on parameters such as CPU, memory, and network bandwidth. With the appearance of Grid Markets, new variables that determine economic expenditure, benefit and opportunity must be taken into account. The SORMA project aims to allow resource owners and consumers to exploit market mechanisms to sell and buy resources across the Grid. SORMA’s motivation is to achieve efficient resource utilisation by maximising revenue for resource providers, and minimising the cost of resource consumption within a market environment. An overriding factor in Grid markets is the need to ensure that desired Quality of Service levels meet the expectations of market participants. This paper explains the proposed use of an Economically Enhanced Resource Manager (EERM) for resource provisioning based on economic models. In particular, this paper describes techniques used by the EERM to support revenue maximisation across multiple Service Level Agreements.

Enforcing service level agreements using an economically enhanced resource manager

Traditional resource management has had as its main objective the optimisation of throughput, based on pa- rameters such as CPU, memory, and network bandwidth. With the appearance of Grid Markets, new variables that determine economic expenditure, benefit and opportunity must be taken into account. The SORMA project aims to allow resource owners and consumers to exploit market mechanisms to sell and buy resources across the Grid. SORMA’s motivation is to achieve efficient resource utilisation by maximising revenue for resource providers, and minimising the cost of resource consumption within a market environment. An overriding factor in Grid markets is the need to ensure that desired Quality of Service levels meet the expectations of market participants. This paper explains the proposed use of an Economically Enhanced Resource Manager (EERM) for resource provisioning based on economic models. In particular, this paper describes techniques used by the EERM to support revenue maximisation across multiple Service Level Agreements.

Present bias predicts participation in payments for environmental services: evidence from a behavioral experiment in Uganda

Farmers are necessary agents in global efforts to conserve the environment now that croplands and pastures together constitute the largest terrestrial system on Earth – covering some 48% of ice-free land surface. Whereas standard economic models predict that farmers will participate in conservation programs so long as they are profitable, empirical findings from behavioral economics point to a number of normally unobservable preferences that may influence the decision-making process. This study tests, for the first time, whether heterogeneity in behavioral preferences correlates with decisions to participate in Payments for Environmental Services (PES) programs. We elicit individual trust and time preferences using economic experiments and link resulting measures to household survey data and participation decisions in a Ugandan PES program. We find that farmers who exhibit a preference for proximate gains – present-biased preferences – are 47.7% more likely to participate in the program than those who show time-consistent or future-biased preferences. This result has implications for ongoing and planned PES programs involving farmers, particularly in Africa, by highlighting a potential relationship between payment timing and participation, and further validates the use of behavioral experiments in explaining real-world decisions.

A bioeconomic evaluation of a commercial scale recirculating finfish growout system - an Australian perspective

This study, based on 3 years of commercial data, presents the results of an economic analysis of a 20-tonne per annum (TPA) commercial recirculating aquaculture system (RAS) facility located in Warrnambool, Victoria, Australia. Based on the assumptions of the analysis, results highlight the non-viability of the facility, with a 10-year projected negative cumulative cash flow of − $648,038, and negative net present value (NPV) of − $707,546. Economies of scale were assessed by the development of economic models for hypothetical 50-TPA and 100-TPA facilities, based on the actual figures obtained from the 20-TPA case study. These analyses highlighted marginal viability for the 50-TPA facility (with a ten-year projected cumulative cash flow of $1,030,300; negative NPV of − $167,651 and internal rate of return (IRR) of 11.75%), and an economically viable 100-TPA facility (with a ten-year projected cumulative cash flow of $3,176,750; NPV of $522,200 and IRR of 21.03%). Sensitivity analysis highlighted that the greatest gains to be realised in improving profitability were those associated with increasing the productive capacity of the facility, increasing the sale price of the product, and decreasing the capital costs of RAS facilities. Contradictions between the results from the present study to similar studies clearly highlight a need for further economic analyses of commercial RAS facilities, using commercial data sets and standard economic analysis procedures.

A healthy diet consistent with Australian health recommendations is too expensive for welfare-dependant families

Objective: Examine the cost of healthy food habits for welfare-dependent families in Australia.

Method:  A seven-day meal plan was developed, based on Australian public health recommendations, for two typical welfare-dependent families: a couple-family (two adults, two children) and a one-parent family (one adult, two children). The cost of the meal plan was calculated using market brand and generic brand grocery items, and total cost compared to income.

Results: In Australia, the cost of healthy food habits uses about 40% of the disposable income of welfare-dependent families. Families earning an average income would spend only 20% of their disposable income to buy the same healthy food. Substituting generic brands for market brands reduced the weekly food cost by about 13%. This is one of few economic models to include generic brands.

Conclusion: Compared with average-income Australian families, healthy food habits are a fiscal challenge to welfare-dependent families.

Implications: These results provide a benchmark for economic and social policy analysis, and the influence disposable income has on prioritising healthy food habits.

Teaching ethics in organisational behaviour : a Humean viewpoint

Problem Statement: Concepts of ethics have rarely been easy to teach in the organizational behaviour curriculum. The philosophical bases of ethics are often abstract and prone to multiple interpretations and dilemmas. The changing global environment of organisations adds complexity to the interacting values that people bring into the workplace. To redress the situation, this articlerepresents the stance of David Hume on human morality and proposes an original nexus of his concepts for application in the teaching and learning of ethics in the field of organizational behaviour.

Method: Based on the literature, we develop a conceptual model from a thread drawn between Hume’s influence on the Scottish Enlightenment and accordingly the current complex business environment which was fostered in part by the economic models espoused by his Enlightenment associates. The concepts are presented as a matrix and relevant examples are explained in this context.

Results: Pointing out the challenge of the global rifts in organisational morality, we relate the fable of the traveller from Hume’s writings and make the point that the Humean nexus, now distilled from the elaborate reasoning of Hume, provides educators and managers alike with a helpful centre of gravity around which to develop analyses of decisions and actions in order to gain moral perspective that transcends time and place.

Conclusions: Business ethics lessons have sometimes been abstract and emotive in organisational Behavior education but the empirical concepts of Hume in this new form have the potential to be useful and agreeable for many.

UnitingWorld : Partnership for effective involvement in mission including development

This chapter argues that, both theologically and practically, development is a form of mission and therefore dividing 'mission' and 'development' is artificial. A theological understanding of mission clearly incorporates upholding rights especially of people most excluded and vulnerable, the core task of development.One church agency involved in both development and supporting partners in communicating the gospel is UnitingWorld – the national agency of the Uniting Church in Australia responsible for international partnerships including development. The Uniting Church was formed in 1977 from the merging of three denominations, all of which had a long history of overseas engagement – for example with Fiji since 1844 and Korea since 1889. Such partnerships have endured and spread to the point where the Uniting Church now has thirty six formal partners, mainly in the Pacific and Asia.Over the past 20 years, a range of social trends, such as decolonisation, climate change, and increased global commitment to justice, as well as changes in missiological thinking, have influenced collaboration with indigenous churches as well as organisations not explicitly Christian.Recolonising approaches by international inter-government bodies and by the Australian government through promoting predominantly western neo-liberal economic values to neighbours, invites the church to collaborate in valuing partner cultures, spiritualities, values and world-views. For UnitingWorld this is most evident in its Pacific engagement, especially with programs arising from the Pacific Conference of Churches.These factors have further relativised the tensions between what was seen as “mission” and what was seen as “development”. Evangelism as communication of good news exhibits a different hue – now coming out of the natural conversations between partners and speaking of God’s life- giving alternatives to destructive social and economic models. Whilst development is inherent in mission, the major challenge faced by UnitingWorld is with Protestant partners strongly influenced by an era of church teaching that emphasised personal commitment tied to distinctive religious expressions.In this chapter we use case studies from the Pacific to show how UnitingWorld is partnering with a range of church and other organisations to support people in exercising their rights and re-engaging Australian church communities in this task.

O modelo econômico brasileiro dos anos 90

A crise brasileira dos anos 80 encerrou o ciclo desenvolvimentista, que prevaleceu no país por mais de 30 anos, e abriu as portas para uma série de *transformações importantes na economia brasileira. Nos anos 90 iniciou-se a reforma do Estado e a liberalização comercial e financeira, que seria ampliada e consolidada com o Plano Real. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a natureza e a magnitude dessas transformações na política econômica brasileira, verificando em que medida elas lançam as bases para um novo modelo econômico no Brasil. Até que ponto a turbulência financeira internacional e a crise cambial de 1998/99 comprometeram esse modelo? Quais são as conseqüências do abandono da âncora cambial e a adoção do ajuste imposto pelo FMI?