Analysis of a controversial decision process: the case of the pumped hydro storage power plant Atdorf in Germany

Based on the report for the unit “Métodos Interactivos de Participação e Decisão A” (Interactive methods of participation and decision A), coordinated by Prof. Lia Maldonado Teles de Vasconcelos and Prof. Nuno Miguel Ribeiro Videira Costa. This unit was provided for the PhD Program in Technology Assessment in 2015/2016.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Exclusive Nightclubs and Lonely Hearts Columns: Nonmonotone Participation in Optional Intermediation

In many decentralised markets, the traders who benefit most from an exchange do not employ intermediaries even though they could easily afford them. At the same time, employing intermediaries is not worthwhile for traders who benefit little from trade. Together, these decisions amount to non-monotone participation choices in intermediation: only traders of middle “type” employ intermediaries, while the rest, the high and the low types, prefer to search for a trading partner directly. We provide a theoretical foundation for this, hitherto unexplained, phenomenon. We build a dynamic matching model, where a trader’s equilibrium bargaining share is a convex increasing function of her type. We also show that this is indeed a necessary condition for the existence of non-monotone equilibria.

Understanding Liquidity and Credit Risks in the Financial Crisis

This paper develops a structured dynamic factor model for the spreads between London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and overnight index swap (OIS) rates for a panel of banks. Our model involves latent factors which reflect liquidity and credit risk. Our empirical results show that surges in the short term LIBOR-OIS spreads during the 2007-2009 fi nancial crisis were largely driven by liquidity risk. However, credit risk played a more signifi cant role in the longer term (twelve-month) LIBOR-OIS spread. The liquidity risk factors are more volatile than the credit risk factor. Most of the familiar events in the financial crisis are linked more to movements in liquidity risk than credit risk.

Obesity and smoking: can we catch two birds with one tax?

The debate on tobacco and fat taxes often treats smoking and eating as independent behaviors. However, the available evidence shows that they are interdependent, which implies that policies against smoking or obesity may have larger scope than expected. To address this issue, we propose a dynamic rational model where eating and smoking are simultaneous choices that jointly affect body weight and addiction to smoking. Focusing on direct and cross-price effects, we compare tobacco taxes and food taxes and we show that a single policy tool can reduce both smoking and body weight. In particular, food taxes can be more effective than tobacco taxes at simultaneously fighting obesity and smoking.

Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending

We study the effects of government spending by using a structural, large dimensional, dynamic factor model. We find that the government spending shock is non-fundamental for the variables commonly used in the structural VAR literature, so that its impulse response functions cannot be consistently estimated by means of a VAR. Government spending raises both consumption and investment, with no evidence of crowding out. The impact multiplier is 1.7 and the long run multiplier is 0.6.

Generació de codi amb WebRatio

L'objectiu d'aquest PFC és la implementació d'una eina que s'encarregui de transformar un model de dades en un model de navegació complet i correcte. Per fer-ho, el programa WebRatio suporta completament el llenguatge WebML i s'utilitzarà com a dissenyador dels models de dades i també com a eina per comprovar els models de navegació generats.

Interregional compensatory mechanisms of motor functioning in progressing preclinical neurodegeneration.

Understanding brain reserve in preclinical stages of neurodegenerative disorders allows determination of which brain regions contribute to normal functioning despite accelerated neuronal loss. Besides the recruitment of additional regions, a reorganisation and shift of relevance between normally engaged regions are a suggested key mechanism. Thus, network analysis methods seem critical for investigation of changes in directed causal interactions between such candidate brain regions. To identify core compensatory regions, fifteen preclinical patients carrying the genetic mutation leading to Huntington's disease and twelve controls underwent fMRI scanning. They accomplished an auditory paced finger sequence tapping task, which challenged cognitive as well as executive aspects of motor functioning by varying speed and complexity of movements. To investigate causal interactions among brain regions a single Dynamic Causal Model (DCM) was constructed and fitted to the data from each subject. The DCM parameters were analysed using statistical methods to assess group differences in connectivity, and the relationship between connectivity patterns and predicted years to clinical onset was assessed in gene carriers. In preclinical patients, we found indications for neural reserve mechanisms predominantly driven by bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, which increasingly activated superior parietal cortices the closer individuals were to estimated clinical onset. This compensatory mechanism was restricted to complex movements characterised by high cognitive demand. Additionally, we identified task-induced connectivity changes in both groups of subjects towards pre- and caudal supplementary motor areas, which were linked to either faster or more complex task conditions. Interestingly, coupling of dorsal premotor cortex and supplementary motor area was more negative in controls compared to gene mutation carriers. Furthermore, changes in the connectivity pattern of gene carriers allowed prediction of the years to estimated disease onset in individuals. Our study characterises the connectivity pattern of core cortical regions maintaining motor function in relation to varying task demand. We identified connections of bilateral dorsal premotor cortex as critical for compensation as well as task-dependent recruitment of pre- and caudal supplementary motor area. The latter finding nicely mirrors a previously published general linear model-based analysis of the same data. Such knowledge about disease specific inter-regional effective connectivity may help identify foci for interventions based on transcranial magnetic stimulation designed to stimulate functioning and also to predict their impact on other regions in motor-associated networks.

Testing financing constraints on firm investment using variable capital

We consider a dynamic multifactor model of investment with financing imperfections,adjustment costs and fixed and variable capital. We use the model to derive a test offinancing constraints based on a reduced form variable capital equation. Simulation resultsshow that this test correctly identifies financially constrained firms even when the estimationof firms investment opportunities is very noisy. In addition, the test is well specified inthe presence of both concave and convex adjustment costs of fixed capital. We confirmempirically the validity of this test on a sample of small Italian manufacturing companies.

Negativity effect in multiparty electoral competition

We construct a dynamic voting model of multiparty competition in order to capture the following facts: voters base their decision on past economicperformance of the parties, and parties and candidates have different objectives. This model may explain the emergence of parties' ideologies,and shows the compatibility of the different objectives of parties and candidates. Together, these results give rise to the formation ofpolitical parties, as infinetely-lived agents with a certain ideology, out of the competition of myopic candidates freely choosing policy positions. We also show that in multicandidate elections held under the plurality system, Hotelling's principle of minimum differentiation is no longer satisfied.

The 2006 Eiger rockslide, European Alps

In July 2006, approximately 2 million m3 of massive limestone began to move on the east flank of the Eiger in central Switzerland. For more than two years after the initial failure, the rock mass moved at rates of up to 70 cm per day. A detailed analysis of the structures and velocities of the different moving blocks was conducted with the aid of terrestrial laser scanning. The moving rock mass included a rear block that subsided, pushing a frontal block forward. Movement directions were controlled by discontinuity sets that formed wedges bounded on one side by sub-vertical bedding planes. The instability was, until recently, buttressed by a glacier. Slope observations and results of continuum and discontinuum modeling indicate that the structure of the rock mass and topography were the main causes of the instability. Progressive weathering and mechanical fatigue of the rock mass appear to have led to the failure. A dynamic analytical model further indicates that the rockslide was primarily controlled by a reduction in the strength of discontinuities, the effects of ice deformation, and ? to a limited extent ? groundwater flow. This study shows that realistic and simple instability models can be constructed for rock-slope failures if high-resolution data are available.

Proof of Concept: Examining Characteristics of Roadway Infrastructure in Various 3D Visualization Modes, 2015

Utilizing enhanced visualization in transportation planning and design gained popularity in the last decade. This work aimed at demonstrating the concept of utilizing a highly immersive, virtual reality simulation engine for creating dynamic, interactive, full-scale, three-dimensional (3D) models of highway infrastructure. For this project, the highway infrastructure element chosen was a two-way, stop-controlled intersection (TWSCI). VirtuTrace, a virtual reality simulation engine developed by the principal investigator, was used to construct the dynamic 3D model of the TWSCI. The model was implemented in C6, which is Iowa State University’s Cave Automatic Virtual Environment (CAVE). Representatives from the Institute of Transportation at Iowa State University, as well as representatives from the Iowa Department of Transportation, experienced the simulated TWSCI. The two teams identified verbally the significant potential that the approach introduces for the application of next-generation simulated environments to road design and safety evaluation.

Preparative ion exchange for salt solutions

Työssä tutkittiin moniarvoisten metalliformiaattien valmistusta ioninvaihto-menetelmällä. Kirjallisuustutkimus käsitteleetunnettuja alumiiniformiaatin ja rautaformiaatin valmistusmenetelmiä, kationinvaihtohartsien ominaisuuksia, ioninvaihtohartsien selektiivisyyttä ja alumiinin, raudan, magnesiumin ja sinkin vesikemiaa. Laboratoriokokeiden avulla tutkittiin sinkki-, magnesium-, rauta(II)- ja alumiiniformiaattien valmistusta ioninvaihdolla. Kokeet suoritettiin kolonnissa, joka oli pakattu makrohuokoisella tai geelimäisellä vahvalla kationin-vaihtohartsilla. Hartsi vaihdettiin natriummuodosta metallimuotoon metallikloridi- tai metallisulfaattiliuoksella.Metalli eluoitiin hartsista natriumformiaatilla. Formiaattien valmistus onnistui makrohuokoista vahvaa kationinvaihtohartsia käyttämällä. Rauta(II)formiaatin valmistus oli vaikeampaa kuin muiden formiaattien, koska rauta(II) hapettui osittain rauta(III):ksi valmistuksen aikana. Alumiiniformiaattia valmistettiin käyttäen sekä makrohuokoista että geelimäistä hartsia. Makrohuokoisen hartsin havaittiin soveltuvan geelimäistä hartsia paremmin alumiiniformiaatin valmistukseen. Kungeelimäistä hartsia käytettiin, noin 30 % alumiinista jäi kiinni hartsiin eikä siten eluoitunut. Ioninvaihdon selektiivisyyskertoimien saamiseksi suoritettiin tasapainokokeita. Selektiivisyyskertoimia käytettiin ioninvaihtokolonnin dynaamisessa simuloinnissa. Ioninvaihdon simuloiminen dynaamisella kolonnimallilla onnistui hyvin.

Tislauskolonnin varopurkauksen laskeminen dynaamisen simuloinnin avulla

Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia tislauskolonnin dynamiikkaa ja dynaamista mallintamista simulointien avulla. Dynaamisen simulointimallin avulla selvitettiin pentaanin erotuskolonnin toimintaa poikkeus- ja häiriötilanteissa. Lisäksi pyrittiin arvioimaan työssä käytettyjen simulointiohjelmistojen soveltuvuutta tislauksen dynaamiseen simulointiin. Työn kirjallisuusosassa käsiteltiin tislauskolonnindynamiikan mallintamista matemaattisten mallien avulla sekä tislauskolonnimallin rakentamista simulointiohjelmistoon. Kirjallisuusosassa esiteltiin myös tislauskolonnin häiriötilanteita ja niiden aiheuttamia varopurkaustapauksia. Tämän lisäksi kirjallisuusosassa käytiin läpi tislauskolonnin varoventtiilien mitoittamisen perusteita. Työn soveltavassa osassa muodostettiin tislauskolonnille dynaaminen simulointimalli Aspen HYSYS Dynamics ja PROSimulator-simulointiohjelmistolla. Mallien avulla tarkasteltiin erilaisten häiriöiden ja poikkeustilanteiden vaikutusta kolonnin käyttäytymiseen ja varopurkaus-tapauksiin. Työssä arvioitiin myös ohjelmistojen soveltuvuutta tislauksen dynaamiseen simulointiin. Työssä saatujen tulosten perusteella voidaan todeta, että dynaamisen simuloinnin avulla saadaan hyödyllistä tietoa tislauskolonnin toiminnasta häiriö- ja poikkeustilanteissa. Dynaamisen simuloinnin onnistuminen ja luotettavien tulosten saaminen edellyttää kuitenkin tarkasteltavan prosessin tuntemista ja ohjelmiston käytön hallintaa. Työssä käytetyn Aspen HYSYS Dynamics simulointiohjelmiston käytettävyydessä havaittiin puutteita ja ohjelmisto vaatii vielä kehitystyötä. Työssä käytetty PROSimulator-simulointiohjelmisto soveltui pienistä puutteista huolimatta hyvin tislauskolonnin häiriötilanteiden tutkimiseen.

Induction motor versus permanent magnet synchronous motor in motion control applications: a comparative study

High dynamic performance of an electric motor is a fundamental prerequisite in motion control applications, also known as servo drives. Recent developments in the field of microprocessors and power electronics have enabled faster and faster movements with an electric motor. In such a dynamically demanding application, the dimensioning of the motor differs substantially from the industrial motor design, where feasible characteristics of the motor are for example high efficiency, a high power factor, and a low price. In motion control instead, such characteristics as high overloading capability, high-speed operation, high torque density and low inertia are required. The thesis investigates how the dimensioning of a high-performance servomotor differs from the dimensioning of industrial motors. The two most common servomotor types are examined; an induction motor and apermanent magnet synchronous motor. The suitability of these two motor types indynamically demanding servo applications is assessed, and the design aspects that optimize the servo characteristics of the motors are analyzed. Operating characteristics of a high performance motor are studied, and some methods for improvements are suggested. The main focus is on the induction machine, which is frequently compared to the permanent magnet synchronous motor. A 4 kW prototype induction motor was designed and manufactured for the verification of the simulation results in the laboratory conditions. Also a dynamic simulation model for estimating the thermal behaviour of the induction motor in servo applications was constructed. The accuracy of the model was improved by coupling it with the electromagnetic motor model in order to take into account the variations in the motor electromagnetic characteristics due to the temperature rise.