Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.

DNA-based detection and characterisation of strictly anaerobic beer-spoilage bacteria

Megasphaera cerevisiae, Pectinatus cerevisiiphilus, Pectinatus frisingensis, Selenomonas lacticifex, Zymophilus paucivorans and Zymophilus raffinosivorans are strictly anaerobic Gram-stain-negative bacteria that are able to spoil beer by producing off-flavours and turbidity. They have only been isolated from the beer production chain. The species are phylogenetically affiliated to the Sporomusa sub-branch in the class "Clostridia". Routine cultivation methods for detection of strictly anaerobic bacteria in breweries are time-consuming and do not allow species identification. The main aim of this study was to utilise DNA-based techniques in order to improve detection and identification of the Sporomusa sub-branch beer-spoilage bacteria and to increase understanding of their biodiversity, evolution and natural sources. Practical PCR-based assays were developed for monitoring of M. cerevisiae, Pectinatus species and the group of Sporomusa sub-branch beer spoilers throughout the beer production process. The developed assays reliably differentiated the target bacteria from other brewery-related microbes. The contaminant detection in process samples (10 1,000 cfu/ml) could be accomplished in 2 8 h. Low levels of viable cells in finished beer (≤10 cfu/100 ml) were usually detected after 1 3 d culture enrichment. Time saving compared to cultivation methods was up to 6 d. Based on a polyphasic approach, this study revealed the existence of three new anaerobic spoilage species in the beer production chain, i.e. Megasphaera paucivorans, Megasphaera sueciensis and Pectinatus haikarae. The description of these species enabled establishment of phenotypic and DNA-based methods for their detection and identification. The 16S rRNA gene based phylogenetic analysis of the Sporomusa sub-branch showed that the genus Selenomonas originates from several ancestors and will require reclassification. Moreover, Z. paucivorans and Z. raffinosivorans were found to be in fact members of the genus Propionispira. This relationship implies that they were carried to breweries along with plant material. The brewery-related Megasphaera species formed a distinct sub-group that did not include any sequences from other sources, suggesting that M. cerevisiae, M. paucivorans and M. sueciensis may be uniquely adapted to the brewery ecosystem. M. cerevisiae was also shown to exhibit remarkable resistance against many brewery-related stress conditions. This may partly explain why it is a brewery contaminant. This study showed that DNA-based techniques provide useful tools for obtaining more rapid and specific information about the presence and identity of the strictly anaerobic spoilage bacteria in the beer production chain than is possible using cultivation methods. This should ensure financial benefits to the industry and better product quality to customers. In addition, DNA-based analyses provided new insight into the biodiversity as well as natural sources and relations of the Sporomusa sub-branch bacteria. The data can be exploited for taxonomic classification of these bacteria and for surveillance and control of contaminations.

Influences of the Fish-Mouth Project and the Groins on the Flow and Sediment Ratio of the Yangtze River Waterway

A depth-integrated two-dimensional numerical model of current, salinity and sediment transport was proposed and calibrated by the observation data in the Yangtze River Estuary. It was then applied to investigate the flow and sediment ratio of the navigati

The Corogal: one of the big dredges in Culebra Cut, Panama Canal (ca. 1914)

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Dredging, Soldiers, and Ships. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida.

First U.S. battleships through Panama Canal: Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin (postcard ca 1914)

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Dredging, Soldiers, and Ships. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida.

Tow boat fleet at Paraiso, Panama Canal (ca. 1914)

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Dredging, Soldiers, and Ships. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida.

Panama Beach

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Dredging, Soldiers, and Ships. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida. Photo caption: The tide rises 20 feet at high tide; at low tide the boats are used as stores to market goods.

Emergency dam at Pedro Miguel, Panama Canal (ca. 1914)

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Dredging, Soldiers, and Ships. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida.

Berm cranes at Miraflores Locks

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Dredging, Soldiers, and Ships. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida. Photo notation: These are most economical in handling concrete but not so elastic as the cable way method (ca. 1914)

Lantern spillway and hydroelectric plant, Panama Canal (ca. 1914)

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Dredging, Soldiers, and Ships. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida.

U.S.S. Ohio, Panama Canal (ca. 1914)

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Dredging, Soldiers, and Ships. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida.

The Panamal Canal: general information

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Dredging, Soldiers, and Ships. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida. (1 pamphlet; 15 pages)

Coastal engineering investigation at Jupiter Inlet, Florida

A fixed-bed hydraulic model of Jupiter Inlet, Florida, was constructed for the purpose of testing measures designed to remedy problems of sediment erosion and deposition in the inlet area. Both tide-induced flows as well as waves were simulated in the model which was built on an undistorted scale of 1:49. Model verification was based on prototype measurements of waves, tides and currents. Results have been interpreted in terms of the influence of various proposed remedial schemes on flow velocity magnitude, distribution and wave height at various locations within the study area. A stability parameter has been utilized for evaluating the degree of sediment erosion or deposition at a given location. Various structural solutions were examined in the model. It is proposed that, in the initial phase of solution implementation, sediment removal/nourishment methods be used primarily to mitigate the existing problems. New structures, as per model test results, should be installed under subsequent phases, only if sediment management procedures do not prove to be adequate. The currently followed procedure of periodic sand trap dredging may be extended to include the new dredging/nourishment requirements. (PDF contains 245 pages.)

Inlet stability and case histories, Part II

Inlets which require frequent channel dredging due to gradual shoaling, exhibit migration, or shoal up during storms, are in general unstable and pose a problem to the engineer. This problem of inlet stability is a complex one, because of the rather large number of variables that go into defining stability. The reference here is to inlets on sandy coasts only, because the absence of sand or similar sedimentary material the problem does not arise. Shell is also found in varying proportions with sand. Some of this is. new, whereas in some areas it is ancient reworked material whose size distribution is close to that of the sand with which it is associated. (PDF has 24 pages.)

Florida's West Coast inlets: shoreline effects and recommended action

This report responds to the 1986 Beaches Bill which, in recognition of the potential deleterious impact on Florida's beaches of inlets modified for navigation, mandated a study of those inlets with identification of recommended action to reduce the impacts. This report addresses west Coast inlets; East Coast inlets are the subject of a companion report. There are 37 inlets along that portion of Florida's West Coast commencing from Pensacola Bay Entrance to Caxambas Pass at the south end of Marco Island. Compared to those on the East Coast, most West Coast inlets have not had the deleterious effects on the adjacent beaches, yet all modified inlets without proper management have the potential of impacting unfavorably on the adjacent shorelines. Moreover, at present there is interest in opening three West Coast entrances which either have been open in the past (Midnight Pass) or which have opened occasionally (Navarre Pass and Entrance to Phillips Lake). A review of inlets in their natural condition demonstrates the presence of a shallow broad outer bar across which the longshore transport Occurs. These shallow and shifting bar features were unsuitable for navigation which in many cases has led to the deepening of the channels and fixing with one or two jetty structures. Inlets in this modified state along with inappropriate maintenance practices have the potential of placing great ero$ional stress along the adjacent beaches. Moreover. channel dredging can reduce wave sheltering of the shoreline by ebb tidal shoals and alter the equilibrium of the affected shoreline segments. The ultimate in poor sand management practice is the placement of good quality beach sand in water depths too great for the sand to reenter the longshore system under natural forces; depths of 12 ft. or less are considered appropriate for Florida in order to maintain the sand in the system. With the interference of the nearshore sediment transport processes by inlets modified for navigation, if the adjacent beaches are to be stabilized there must be an active monitoring program with commitment to placement of dredged material of beach quality on shoreline segments of documented need. Several East Coast inlets have such transfer facilities; however. the quantities of sand transferred should be increased. Although an evolution and improvement in the technical capability to manage sand resources in the vicinity of inlets is expected, an adequate capability exists today and a concerted program should be made to commence a scheduled implementation of this capability at those entrances causing greatest erosional stress on the adjacent shorelines. A brief summary review for each of the 37 West Coast inlets is presented including: a scaled aerial photograph, brief historical information, several items related to sediment losses at each inlet and special characteristics relevant to State responsibilities. For each inlet, where appropriate, the above infor~tion is utilized to develop a recommenced action. (PDF has 101 pages.)