Hydro-Meteorology and Water Budget of the Mara River Basin Under Land Use Change Scenarios

Mara is a transboundary river located in Kenya and Tanzania and considered to be an important life line to the inhabitants of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. It is also a source of water for domestic water supply, irrigation, livestock and wildlife. The alarming increase of water demand as well as the decline in the river flow in recent years has been a major challenge for water resource managers and stakeholders. This has necessitated the knowledge of the available water resources in the basin at different times of the year. Historical rainfall, minimum and maximum stream flows were analyzed. Inter and intra-annual variability of trends in streamflow are discussed. Landsat imagery was utilized in order to analyze the land use land cover in the upper Mara River basin. The semi-distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the basin water balance and understand the hydrologic effect of the recent land use changes from forest-to-agriculture. The results of this study provided the potential hydrological impacts of three land use change scenarios in the upper Mara River basin. It also adds to the existing literature and knowledge base with a view of promoting better land use management practices in the basin.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Cloud query manager: uso de web semântica para evitar o problema de aprisionamento em IaaS

Cloud computing can be defined as a distributed computational model by through resources (hardware, storage, development platforms and communication) are shared, as paid services accessible with minimal management effort and interaction. A great benefit of this model is to enable the use of various providers (e.g a multi-cloud architecture) to compose a set of services in order to obtain an optimal configuration for performance and cost. However, the multi-cloud use is precluded by the problem of cloud lock-in. The cloud lock-in is the dependency between an application and a cloud platform. It is commonly addressed by three strategies: (i) use of intermediate layer that stands to consumers of cloud services and the provider, (ii) use of standardized interfaces to access the cloud, or (iii) use of models with open specifications. This paper outlines an approach to evaluate these strategies. This approach was performed and it was found that despite the advances made by these strategies, none of them actually solves the problem of lock-in cloud. In this sense, this work proposes the use of Semantic Web to avoid cloud lock-in, where RDF models are used to specify the features of a cloud, which are managed by SPARQL queries. In this direction, this work: (i) presents an evaluation model that quantifies the problem of cloud lock-in, (ii) evaluates the cloud lock-in from three multi-cloud solutions and three cloud platforms, (iii) proposes using RDF and SPARQL on management of cloud resources, (iv) presents the cloud Query Manager (CQM), an SPARQL server that implements the proposal, and (v) comparing three multi-cloud solutions in relation to CQM on the response time and the effectiveness in the resolution of cloud lock-in.

Dynamics of vector rogue waves in a fiber laser with a ring cavity

A pulse–pulse interaction that leads to rogue wave (RW) generation in lasers was previously attributed either to soliton–soliton or soliton–dispersive-wave interaction. The beating between polarization modes in the absence of a saturable absorber causes similar effects. Accounting for these polarization modes in a laser resonator is the purpose of the distributed vector model of laser resonators. Furthermore, high pump power, high amplitude, and short pulse duration are not necessary conditions to observe pulse attraction, repulsion, and collisions and the resonance exchange of energy between among them. The regimes of interest can be tuned just by changing the birefringence in the cavity with the pump power slightly higher than the laser threshold. This allows the observation of a wide range of RW patterns in the same experiment, as well as to classify them. The dynamics of the interaction between pulses leads us to the conclusion that all of these effects occur due to nonlinearity induced by the inverse population in the active fiber as well as an intrinsic nonlinearity in the passive part of the cavity. Most of the mechanisms of pulse–pulse interaction were found to be mutually exclusive. This means that all the observed RW patterns, namely, the “lonely,” “twins,” “three sisters,” and “cross,” are probably different cases of the same process.

El aprendizaje distribuido como estrategia didáctica en la enseñanza del vocabulario de ELE : Un acercamiento a su uso en el salón escolar sueco

Aprender nuevas palabras en un idioma extranjero, es decir, el léxico necesario que fundamenta la posibilidad del desarrollo de las destrezas comunicativas, constituye uno de los problemas más complejos en el proceso tanto de enseñanza como de aprendizaje del español como lengua extranjera. En relación con el aprendizaje del vocabulario identificamos un posible problema; el riesgo de que el número de palabras aprendidas se olvide aumenta después de la prueba o los ejercicios. Si nuestros alumnos no pueden ampliar su vocabulario su competencia comunicativa tampoco va a desarrollar.Para poder entender por qué ocurre el problema y cómo se podría encontrar otros recursos didácticos que contribuyan a un cambio en el proceso, investigamos un fenómeno conocido por la psicología de la educación como el efecto de la memoria espaciada - un fenómeno cognitivo que se benéfica de las repeticiones, pero siempre distribuidas en el tiempo. Estrategias de enseñanza que utilizan dicho efecto se refiere como aprendizaje distribuido.Mediante un pequeño estudio analizamos el efecto de la memoria espaciada (ME) como método alternativa. De este estudio podemos inferir que existe un efecto de memoria espaciada tangible en el aprendizaje de los alumnos que estudiaron según un modelo distribuido, es decir con repeticiones.Pudimos constatar un resultado positivo en este pequeño estudio piloto. Los alumnos lograron recordar en la examinación el 85% de las palabras ejercitadas en la clase un mes después. Este resultado abre nuevas perspectivas de estudio e indica que puede haber alternativas didácticas en la enseñanza del vocabulario de ELE en el salón escolar sueco.

An empirical investigation of the impact of global energy transition on Nigerian oil and gas exports

18 months embargo on the thesis and check appendix for copy right materials

Distributed power control algorithm for multiple access systems based on Verhulst model

In this paper the continuous Verhulst dynamic model is used to synthesize a new distributed power control algorithm (DPCA) for use in direct sequence code division multiple access (DS-CDMA) systems. The Verhulst model was initially designed to describe the population growth of biological species under food and physical space restrictions. The discretization of the corresponding differential equation is accomplished via the Euler numeric integration (ENI) method. Analytical convergence conditions for the proposed DPCA are also established. Several properties of the proposed recursive algorithm, such as Euclidean distance from optimum vector after convergence, convergence speed, normalized mean squared error (NSE), average power consumption per user, performance under dynamics channels, and implementation complexity aspects, are analyzed through simulations. The simulation results are compared with two other DPCAs: the classic algorithm derived by Foschini and Miljanic and the sigmoidal of Uykan and Koivo. Under estimated errors conditions, the proposed DPCA exhibits smaller discrepancy from the optimum power vector solution and better convergence (under fixed and adaptive convergence factor) than the classic and sigmoidal DPCAs. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Cell cycle model to describe animal cell size variation and lag between cell number and biomass dynamics

The use of cell numbers rather than mass to quantify the size of the biotic phase in animal cell cultures causes several problems. First, the cell size varies with growth conditions, thus yields expressed in terms of cell numbers cannot be used in the normal mass balance sense. Second, experience from microbial systems shows that cell number dynamics lag behind biomass dynamics. This work demonstrates that this lag phenomenon also occurs in animal cell culture. Both the lag phenomenon and the variation in cell size are explained using a simple model of the cell cycle. The basis for the model is that onset of DNA synthesis requires accumulation of G1 cyclins to a prescribed level. This requirement is translated into a requirement for a cell to reach a critical size before commencement of DNA synthesis. A slower gl-owing cell will spend more time in G1 before reaching the critical mass. In contrast, the period between onset of DNA synthesis and mitosis, tau(B), is fixed. The two parameters in the model, the critical size and tau(B), were determined from eight steady-state measurements of mean cell size in a continuous hybridoma culture. Using these parameters, it was possible to predict with reasonable accuracy the transient behavior in a separate shift-up culture, i.e., a culture where cells were transferred from a lean environment to a rich environment. The implications for analyzing experimental data for animal cell culture are discussed. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Distributed Model Predictive Control for Housing with Hourly Auction of Available Energy

This paper presents a distributed model predictive control (DMPC) for indoor thermal comfort that simultaneously optimizes the consumption of a limited shared energy resource. The control objective of each subsystem is to minimize the heating/cooling energy cost while maintaining the indoor temperature and used power inside bounds. In a distributed coordinated environment, the control uses multiple dynamically decoupled agents (one for each subsystem/house) aiming to achieve satisfaction of coupling constraints. According to the hourly power demand profile, each house assigns a priority level that indicates how much is willing to bid in auction for consume the limited clean resource. This procedure allows the bidding value vary hourly and consequently, the agents order to access to the clean energy also varies. Despite of power constraints, all houses have also thermal comfort constraints that must be fulfilled. The system is simulated with several houses in a distributed environment.

A feedback-based decentralised coordination model for distributed open real-time systems

Moving towards autonomous operation and management of increasingly complex open distributed real-time systems poses very significant challenges. This is particularly true when reaction to events must be done in a timely and predictable manner while guaranteeing Quality of Service (QoS) constraints imposed by users, the environment, or applications. In these scenarios, the system should be able to maintain a global feasible QoS level while allowing individual nodes to autonomously adapt under different constraints of resource availability and input quality. This paper shows how decentralised coordination of a group of autonomous interdependent nodes can emerge with little communication, based on the robust self-organising principles of feedback. Positive feedback is used to reinforce the selection of the new desired global service solution, while negative feedback discourages nodes to act in a greedy fashion as this adversely impacts on the provided service levels at neighbouring nodes. The proposed protocol is general enough to be used in a wide range of scenarios characterised by a high degree of openness and dynamism where coordination tasks need to be time dependent. As the reported results demonstrate, it requires less messages to be exchanged and it is faster to achieve a globally acceptable near-optimal solution than other available approaches.

On performance of distributed model predictive control in power system frequency regulation

This paper describes the implementation of a distributed model predictive approach for automatic generation control. Performance results are discussed by comparing classical techniques (based on integral control) with model predictive control solutions (centralized and distributed) for different operational scenarios with two interconnected networks. These scenarios include variable load levels (ranging from a small to a large unbalance generated power to power consumption ratio) and simultaneously variable distance between the interconnected networks systems. For the two networks the paper also examines the impact of load variation in an island context (a network isolated from each other).

Petri net model decomposition - a model based approach supporting distributed execution

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica, Especialidade de Sistemas Digitais, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Cost Allocation Model for Distribution Networks Considering High Penetration of Distributed Energy Resources

The high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution networks and the competitiveenvironment of electricity markets impose the use of new approaches in several domains. The networkcost allocation, traditionally used in transmission networks, should be adapted and used in the distribu-tion networks considering the specifications of the connected resources. The main goal is to develop afairer methodology trying to distribute the distribution network use costs to all players which are usingthe network in each period. In this paper, a model considering different type of costs (fixed, losses, andcongestion costs) is proposed comprising the use of a large set of DER, namely distributed generation(DG), demand response (DR) of direct load control type, energy storage systems (ESS), and electric vehi-cles with capability of discharging energy to the network, which is known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G). Theproposed model includes three distinct phases of operation. The first phase of the model consists in aneconomic dispatch based on an AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF); in the second phase Kirschen’s andBialek’s tracing algorithms are used and compared to evaluate the impact of each resource in the net-work. Finally, the MW-mile method is used in the third phase of the proposed model. A distributionnetwork of 33 buses with large penetration of DER is used to illustrate the application of the proposedmodel.

Cost allocation model for distribution networks considering high penetration of distributed energy resources

The high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution networks and the competitive environment of electricity markets impose the use of new approaches in several domains. The network cost allocation, traditionally used in transmission networks, should be adapted and used in the distribution networks considering the specifications of the connected resources. The main goal is to develop a fairer methodology trying to distribute the distribution network use costs to all players which are using the network in each period. In this paper, a model considering different type of costs (fixed, losses, and congestion costs) is proposed comprising the use of a large set of DER, namely distributed generation (DG), demand response (DR) of direct load control type, energy storage systems (ESS), and electric vehicles with capability of discharging energy to the network, which is known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G). The proposed model includes three distinct phases of operation. The first phase of the model consists in an economic dispatch based on an AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF); in the second phase Kirschen's and Bialek's tracing algorithms are used and compared to evaluate the impact of each resource in the network. Finally, the MW-mile method is used in the third phase of the proposed model. A distribution network of 33 buses with large penetration of DER is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

maintenance model for systems with phase-type distributed times to failure

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2010