Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Tratamento termoquímico do titânio auxiliado por plasma de ar - N2 - O2

Discs were grade II cp Ti oxynitride by plasma of Ar - N2 - O2 using different proportions of individual gases. These ratios were established from analysis of optical emission spectroscopy (OES) of plasma species. The proportions that resulted in species whose spectra showed an abrupt change of light intensity were chosen for this study. Nanohardness tests revealed that there was a correlation between the intensity of N2 + species with the hardness, because the treatments where they had a higher intensity, obtained a higher value nanohardness, although the crystalline phases have remained unchanged. With respect to topography, it was observed that in general, the surface roughness is related to the intensities of plasma species, because they may have different values depending on the behavior of the species. Images obtained by optical microscopy revealed a surface with grains of different colors to optical reflectance showed a peak of reflection in the red area. Measures the contact angle and surface tension showed hydrophilic properties and hydrophilic with little variation of polar and dispersive components of surface tension

Síntese e impregnação de peneiras moleculares Fe MCM-41 derivada de sílica da casca do arroz

The mesoporous molecular sieves of the MCM-41 and FeMCM-41 type are considered promissory as support for metals used as catalysts in oil-based materials refine processes and as adsorbents for environmental protection proposes. In this work MCM-41 and FeMCM41 were synthesized using rice husk ash - RHA as alternative to the conventional silica source. Hydrothermal synthesis was the method chosen to prepare the materials. Pre-defined synthesis parameters were 100°C for 168 hours, later the precursor was calcinated at 550°C for 2 hours under nitrogen and air flow. The sieves containing different proportions of iron were produced by two routes: introduction of iron salt direct synthesis; and a modification post synthesis consisting in iron salt 1 % and 5% impregnation in the material followed by thermal decomposition. The molecular sieves were characterized by X ray diffraction XRD, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy FT-IR, X ray fluorescence spectroscopy XFR, scanning electronic microscopy SEM, specific surface area using the BET method, Termogravimetry TG. The kinetic model of Flynn Wall was used with the aim of determining the apparent activation energy of the surfactant remove (CTMABr) in the MCM- 41 porous. The analysis made possible the morphology characterization, identifying the presence of hexagonal structure typical for mesoporous materials, as well as observation of the MCM41 and iron of characteristic bands.

Propriedades tribomecânicas de superfícies de titânio carbonitretadas por plasma

Interstitial compounds of titanium have been mainly studied due to the large range of properties acquired when C, N, O and H atoms are added. In this work, surfaces of TiCxNy were produced by thermochemical treatments assisted by plasma with different proportions of Ar + N2 + CH4 gas mixture. The Ar gas flow was fixed in 4 sccm, varying only N2 and CH4 gas flows. During the thermochemical treatment, the plasma was monitored by Optical Emission Spectroscopy (OES) for the investigation of the influence of active species. After treatments, C and N concentration profile, crystalline and amorphous phases were analyzed by Nuclear Reaction (NRA). Besides tribomechanical properties of the Ti surface were studied through the nanohardness measurements and friction coefficient determination. The worn areas were evaluated by profilometry and Scanning Electronic Microscope (SEM) in order to verify the wear mechanism present in each material. It has been seen which the properties like nanohardness and friction coefficient have strong relation with luminous intensity of species of the plasma, suggesting a using of this characteristic as a parameter of process

Resíduos e subprodutos agroindustriais e grãos como substratos para produção do fungo entomapatogênico Lecanicillium lecanii

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Histopathological and histomicrobiological study of root canal therapy medication, comparison of calcium hydroxide versus gutta-percha with zinc oxide/eugenol in the teeth of dogs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação de tecnologias de refúgio no cultivo de milho transgênico

O objetivo deste trabalho foi comparar o uso de refúgio tradicional em áreas separadas com a tecnologia alternativa de refúgio pela mistura de sementes não transgênicas no saco (refuge in the bag - RIB) em diferentes proporções. Foram utilizados os híbridos comerciais transgênicos AG 7000YG e DKB 390YG com refúgios plantados com as respectivas cultivares convencionais. Avaliaram-se sete tratamentos: RIB com quatro proporções de mistura de sementes não transgênicas (2,5, 5,0, 7,5 e 10%) no saco; refúgio tradicional, com 10% da área plantada exclusivamente com cultivar não transgênica; e área totalmente cultivada com plantas transgênicas ou totalmente com plantas não transgênicas. O híbrido DKB 390YG foi o mais produtivo. Para este híbrido, não foram observadas diferenças de produtividade entre os tratamentos, com exceção do controle inteiramente convencional, que produziu menos. Com o híbrido AG 7000YG, a tecnologia RIB com proporções de 5,0 e 7,5% de sementes não transgênicas apresentou as maiores produtividades, significativamente superiores às do refúgio tradicional, que não diferiu do controle convencional. Nos tratamentos RIB, as diferenças nas intensidades de dano por Spodoptera frugiperda não se refletiram em diferenças na produtividade. O refúgio no saco é alternativa viável para substituir o método de refúgio utilizado atualmente.

Sexagem de espermatozoides bovinos por centrifugação em gradiente descontínuo de densidade de Percoll

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Nutrição e produção da bananeira 'Prata-anã' adubada com zinco e boro diretamente no rizoma, via muda desbastada

Com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito de diferentes doses de Zn e B, aplicados diretamente no rizoma, via muda desbastada, sobre a nutrição das plantas e produção da bananeira 'Prata-anã', foi instalado um experimento em Jaíba - MG, sob irrigação, conduzido por três ciclos produtivos consecutivos. Utilizou-se o desbastador lurdinha para extrair a gema apical de um broto cortado rente ao solo, de forma que, no local, ficasse um orifício onde os adubos foram aplicados. Empregou-se o delineamento experimental inteiramente casualizado, com 20 tratamentos resultantes de um fatorial completo entre 5 doses de zinco (0; 2,5; 5,0; 7,5 e 10,0 g de Zn família-1 ano-1) x 4 doses de boro (0; 0,68; 1,36 e 2,04 g B família-1 ano-1), com 10 repetições de uma planta. Avaliaram-se os teores de nutrientes na terceira folha e a produção em massa de frutos por cacho. Os adubos promoveram alterações nos teores foliares de nutrientes, porém sem magnitude suficiente para alterar a condição nutricional quando se consideram as faixas de suficiência. O Zn interferiu na produção, porém os menores valores foram observados na dose intermediária e não houve ajuste de modelo de regressão.

Nota científica: teste de aceitação de bebida mista de soja e amora

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Desempenho mecânico de compósitos híbridos de fibras naturais e poliéster não saturado

With the objective to promote sustainable development, the fibres found in nature in abundance, which are biodegradable, of low cost in comparison to synthetic fibres are being used in the manufacture of composites. The mechanical behavior of the curauá and pineapple leaf fibre (PALF) composites in different proportions, 25% x 75% (P1), 50% x 50% (P2) e 75% x 25% (P3) were respectively studied, being initially treated with a 2% aqueous solution of sodium hydroxide. Mechanical analyses indicated that with respect to studies of traction, for the combination of P1 and P3, better results of 22.17 MPa and 16.98 MPa, were obtained respectively, which are higher than that of the combination P2. The results of the same pattern were obtained for analysis of bending resistance where P1 is 1.21% and P3 represents 0.96%. In the case of resistance to bending, best results were obtained for the combination P1 at 49.07 MPa. However, when Young's modulus values were calculated, the values were different to the pattern of the results of other tests, where the combination P2 with the value of 4.06 GPa is greater than the other combinations. This shows that the PALF had a greater influence in relation to curauá fibre. The analysis of the results generally shows that in combinations of two vegetable fibers of cellulosic origin, the fiber which shows higher percentage (75%) is the best option than to the composition of 50%/50%. In the meantime, according to the results obtained in this study, in the case where the application should withstand bending loads, the better composition would be 50%/50%

Fabricação de eco-composito com a fibra de lã canina

The Sustainability has been evidence in the world today; organizations have sought to be more and more into this philosophy in their processes, whether products or attendance. In the present work were manufactured eco-composites with animal fiber (dog wool) that is currently discarded into the environment without any use. The fibers were characterized and made matting (non-woven). The phases of the project were consisted to develop methods and to convert these fibers (booster) blended with polyester resin (matrix) in different proportions (10%, 20% and 30%) at the composite. Were studied fiber characteristics, mechanical properties of the composites, water absorption and scanning electron microscopy. Initially, the fibers were treated with solution of sodium hydroxide of 0.05 mols, and then taken to matting preparing at the textile engineering laboratory - UFRN. The composites were made by compression molding, using an orthophthalic polyester resin as matrix and 1% MEK (methyl ethyl ketone peroxide) as initiator (catalyst). To evaluate the mechanical tests (tensile and flexural) and water absorption were made twelve specimens with dimensions 150x25x3 mm were cut randomly. According to the standard method, tensile tests (ASTM 3039) bending tests (ASTM D790) were performed at the mechanical testing of metals at laboratory UFRN. The results of these tests showed that the composite reinforced with 30% had a better behavior when exposed to tension charge; while on the three points bending test showed that the composite reinforced with 10% had a better behavior. In the water absorption test it was possible to see that the highest absorption happened on the composite reinforced with 30%. In the micrographs, it was possible to see the regions of rupture and behavior of the composite (booster / matrix)

Caracterização físico-química, reológica e sensorial de iogurte obtido pela mistura dos leites bubalino e caprino

Milk from different animals can be used for dairy production. Yoghurt is a popular fermented milk product and considered to be one of the greatest importance in terms of consumer acceptance and consumption. The present research deals with the production of strawberry set-type yoghurt by mixing goat and buffalo s milk and it has the objective of taking advantage of the intrinsic characteristics of each milk to produce a final product with desirable attributes. It was conducted by analyzing five experimental groups with different proportions of goat and buffalo s milk: C 100% goat s milk; 7C3B - 70% goat s milk and 30% buffalo s milk, 5C5B - 50% goat s milk and 50% buffalo s milk, 3C7B 30% goat s milk and 70% buffalo s milk; B - 100% buffalo s milk. Each group was evaluated for total solids content and the acidification profile was monitored every 30 minutes by pH analysis. The yoghurt samples were analyzed for physical-chemical (pH, acidity, protein, fat, total and reducing sugars, ash and total solids), rheological (syneresis and viscosity) and sensory characteristics (appearance, odor, consistency and flavour). Samples with higher percentual of bubaline milk reached Vm faster, but the time necessary for pH 4.6 (Te) were similar between groups. Statistical differences (p<0.05) were observed for fat and total solids content of yoghurt, with superior values for groups higher proportions of buffalo s milk. The parameters of behavior reached by the model of Ostwald of Waale pointed yoghurt samples as non-Newtonian and pseudoplastic fluids. Yoghurt made only with goat s milk (C) had higher values (p<0.05) for syneresis, which can be explained by its fragile coagulum. Additionally, this group also had the lowest sensory scores for the attributes consistence and taste, while bubaline yoghurt (B) obtained the best acceptance indexes for all of the appraised parameters

Variação da qualidade da água do escoamento superficial de duas bacias de drenagem de Natal/RN - Brasil

The urban drainage is one of the powers of environmental sanitation and its scope is the quantitative and qualitative aspects. In decision making of managers and the engineering aspects of design are almost always taken into account only the quantitative aspects. However, the waters of the runoff have the highest concentrations of pollutants at the beginning of precipitation. Thus, if the plot pollution removed, the remaining portion can be used for other purposes. This work has aimed to present the variation of water quality of two drainage basins in the city of Natal / RN-Brazil to support the implementation of drainage to consider the qualitative aspect, and identify potential for the use of water. The basins (M and C) are analyzed closed-type, are in the urban area, are predominantly residential occupation and its waters are used for detention ponds and infiltration. The samples were divided into three phases, the first two direct to final points in a basin and the third in traps distributed over the surface drainage. The parameters had been analyzed were pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, Color, Turbidity, COD, Ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, Sediments solids, total solids, chloride, sulfate, alkalinity, calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, Heavy Metals (Chromium, Cadmium, Lead, Zinc and Copper), Eschichia coli and total coliforms. The parameters studied showed high initial pollution load, events and located in different proportions, except nitrite, heavy metals and biological indicators. The size of the surface drainage and topographic its features influence the quality of water. However, the form of sampling is crucial in the qualitative study in the basin. The samplers developed at work, were generated economic and representative results. The urban rainwater presents organic faecal indicators. The runoff of water from both basins shows no risk of salinity and sodicity for use in irrigation, should be noted the content of chloride in the choice of method of irrigation

Biodiesel CO2 emissions: A comparison with the main fuels in the Brazilian market

The use of biodiesel is increasing as an attractive fuel due to the depleting fossil fuel resources and environmental degradation. This paper presents results of an investigation on the potentials of biodiesel as an alternative fuel and main substitute of diesel oil, comparing the CO2 emissions of the main fuels in the Brazilian market with those of biodiesel, in pure form or blended in different proportions with diesel oil (2%, 5%, and 20%, called B2, B5, and B20, respectively). The results of the study are shown in ton CO2 per m(3) and ton CO2 per year of fuel. The fuels were analyzed considering their chemical composition, stoichiometric combustion parameters and mean consumption for a single vehicle. The fuels studied were: gasoline, diesel oil, anhydrous ethyl alcohol (anhydrous ethanol), and biodiesel from used frying oil and from soybean oil. For the case of biodiesel, its complete life cycle and the closed carbon cycle (photosynthesis) were considered. With data provided by the Brazilian Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA) for the number of vehicles produced in Brazil, the emissions of CO2 for the national fleet in 2007 were obtained per type of fuel. With data provided by the Brazilian Department of Transit (DENATRAN) concerning the number of diesel vehicles in the last five years in Brazil, the total CO2 emissions and the percentage that they would decrease in the case of use of pure biodiesel, B100, or several mixtures, B2, B5 and B20, were calculated. Estimates of CO2 emissions for a future scenario considering the mixtures B5 and B20 are also included in this article. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.