Metsäteollisuuden puunhankinnan ohjaus: Hankintalähteen kannattavuus ja siihen vaikuttavat tekijät

Tutkielmassa rakennettiin laskentamalli metsäteollisuuden puunhankinnan hankintalähteen kannattavuuden määrittämiseksi ja selittämiseksi. Tutkimuksessa noudatettiin konstruktiivisen tapaustutkimuksen tutkimusotetta. Tutkimuksen kohdeorganisaationa oli kansainvälisesti toimivan metsäteollisuusyrityksen Suomen puunhankintaorganisaatio. Kannattavuusmalli määrittelee hankintalähteen kannattavuuden sekä käsitteellisellä että laskentamenettelyn tasolla. Kannattavuusmallin katesuure on porttikate, joka rakennettiin taloudellisen lisäarvon teoriaan nojaten kohdeorganisaation tarpeiden ja sen laskenta-asiantuntijoiden näkemysten perusteella. Kannattavuusmallin rakenne ja osat kuvattiin seikkaperäisesti. Kannattavuusmallin käyttämän liiketoimintadatan poiminta ja laskentasuureiden raportointi testattiin. Mallin tarvitsemat laskentatiedot on saatavissa kohdeorganisaation kehitteillä olevasta toiminnanohjausjärjestelmästä. Laskentamallin hyödyntämismahdollisuudet arvioitiin. Hankintalähteen kannattavuutta mittaavalla porttikatteella voidaan ohjata puunhankintaorganisaatiota sen tavoitteiden saavuttamisessa. Malli ilmaisee porttikatteeseen vaikuttavien tekijöiden vaikutuksen kannattavuuteen, minkä avulla voidaan tehdä parempia päätöksiä hankintalähteiden hyödyntämisessä. Aiemmista tutkimuksista poiketen malli huomioi hankintalähteen suoritteen arvon tärkeimmille asiakastehtaille perustuen todellisiin liiketapahtumiin. Kannattavuusmallia voidaan hyödyntää laajalti metsäteollisuusyritysten tavaralajimenetelmään perustuvassa puunhankinnassa. Kannattavuusmallin rakentaminen rohkaisee puunhankinnan johtoa ja laskentahenkilöitä hedelmällisen yhteistyöhön.

Mathematical modeling and optimal control of malaria

Malaria continues to infect millions and kill hundreds of thousands of people worldwide each year, despite over a century of research and attempts to control and eliminate this infectious disease. Challenges such as the development and spread of drug resistant malaria parasites, insecticide resistance to mosquitoes, climate change, the presence of individuals with subpatent malaria infections which normally are asymptomatic and behavioral plasticity in the mosquito hinder the prospects of malaria control and elimination. In this thesis, mathematical models of malaria transmission and control that address the role of drug resistance, immunity, iron supplementation and anemia, immigration and visitation, and the presence of asymptomatic carriers in malaria transmission are developed. A within-host mathematical model of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria is also developed. First, a deterministic mathematical model for transmission of antimalarial drug resistance parasites with superinfection is developed and analyzed. The possibility of increase in the risk of superinfection due to iron supplementation and fortification in malaria endemic areas is discussed. The model results calls upon stakeholders to weigh the pros and cons of iron supplementation to individuals living in malaria endemic regions. Second, a deterministic model of transmission of drug resistant malaria parasites, including the inflow of infective immigrants, is presented and analyzed. The optimal control theory is applied to this model to study the impact of various malaria and vector control strategies, such as screening of immigrants, treatment of drug-sensitive infections, treatment of drug-resistant infections, and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor spraying of mosquitoes. The results of the model emphasize the importance of using a combination of all four controls tools for effective malaria intervention. Next, a two-age-class mathematical model for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers is developed and analyzed. In development of this model, four possible control measures are analyzed: the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying, screening and treatment of symptomatic, and screening and treatment of asymptomatic individuals. The numerical results show that a disease-free equilibrium can be attained if all four control measures are used. A common pitfall for most epidemiological models is the absence of real data; model-based conclusions have to be drawn based on uncertain parameter values. In this thesis, an approach to study the robustness of optimal control solutions under such parameter uncertainty is presented. Numerical analysis of the optimal control problem in the presence of parameter uncertainty demonstrate the robustness of the optimal control approach that: when a comprehensive control strategy is used the main conclusions of the optimal control remain unchanged, even if inevitable variability remains in the control profiles. The results provide a promising framework for the design of cost-effective strategies for disease control with multiple interventions, even under considerable uncertainty of model parameters. Finally, a separate work modeling the within-host Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans is presented. The developed model allows re-infection of already-infected red blood cells. The model hypothesizes that in severe malaria due to parasite quest for survival and rapid multiplication, the Plasmodium falciparum can be absorbed in the already-infected red blood cells which accelerates the rupture rate and consequently cause anemia. Analysis of the model and parameter identifiability using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is presented.

Green supplier selection via Multiple Criteria Data Envelopment Analysis

An appropriate supplier selection and its profound effects on increasing the competitive advantage of companies has been widely discussed in supply chain management (SCM) literature. By raising environmental awareness among companies and industries they attach more importance to sustainable and green activities in selection procedures of raw material providers. The current thesis benefits from data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique to evaluate the relative efficiency of suppliers in the presence of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission for green supplier selection. We incorporate the pollution of suppliers as an undesirable output into DEA. However, to do so, two conventional DEA model problems arise: the lack of the discrimination power among decision making units (DMUs) and flexibility of the inputs and outputs weights. To overcome these limitations, we use multiple criteria DEA (MCDEA) as one alternative. By applying MCDEA the number of suppliers which are identified as efficient will be decreased and will lead to a better ranking and selection of the suppliers. Besides, in order to compare the performance of the suppliers with an ideal supplier, a “virtual” best practice supplier is introduced. The presence of the ideal virtual supplier will also increase the discrimination power of the model for a better ranking of the suppliers. Therefore, a new MCDEA model is proposed to simultaneously handle undesirable outputs and virtual DMU. The developed model is applied for green supplier selection problem. A numerical example illustrates the applicability of the proposed model.

Development of a Control System for a Tele Operated Mobile Robot

Mobile robots are capable of performing spatial displacement motions in different environments. This motions can be calculated based on sensorial data (autonomous robot) or given by an operator (tele operated robot). This thesis is focused on the latter providing the control architecture which bridges the tele operator and the robot’s locomotion system and end effectors. Such a task might prove overwhelming in cases where the robot comprises a wide variety of sensors and actuators hence a relatively new option was selected: Robot Operating System (ROS). The control system of a new robot will be sketched and tested in a simulation model using ROS together with Gazebo in order to determine the viability of such a system. The simulated model will be based on the projected shape and main features of the real machine. A stability analysis will be performed first theoretically and afterwards using the developed model. This thesis concluded that both the physical properties and the control architecture are feasible and stable settling up the ground for further work with the same robot.

Two-dimensional drift-diffusion simulation of organic solar cells

The aim of this master's thesis is to develop a two-dimensional drift-di usion model, which describes charge transport in organic solar cells. The main bene t of a two-dimensional model compared to a one-dimensional one is the inclusion of the nanoscale morphology of the active layer of a bulk heterojunction solar cell. The developed model was used to study recombination dynamics at the donor-acceptor interface. In some cases, it was possible to determine e ective parameters, which reproduce the results of the two-dimensional model in the one-dimensional case. A summary of the theory of charge transport in semiconductors was presented and discussed in the context of organic materials. Additionally, the normalization and discretization procedures required to nd a numerical solution to the charge transport problem were outlined. The charge transport problem was solved by implementing an iterative scheme called successive over-relaxation. The obtained solution is given as position-dependent electric potential, free charge carrier concentrations and current densities in the active layer. An interfacial layer, separating the pure phases, was introduced in order to describe charge dynamics occurring at the interface between the donor and acceptor. For simplicity, an e ective generation of free charge carriers in the interfacial layer was implemented. The pure phases simply act as transport layers for the photogenerated charges. Langevin recombination was assumed in the two-dimensional model and an analysis of the apparent recombination rate in the one-dimensional case is presented. The recombination rate in a two-dimensional model is seen to e ectively look like reduced Langevin recombination at open circuit. Replicating the J-U curves obtained in the two-dimensional model is, however, not possible by introducing a constant reduction factor in the Langevin recombination rate. The impact of an acceptor domain in the pure donor phase was investigated. Two cases were considered, one where the acceptor domain is isolated and another where it is connected to the bulk of the acceptor. A comparison to the case where no isolated domains exist was done in order to quantify the observed reduction in the photocurrent. The results show that all charges generated at the isolated domain are lost to recombination, but the domain does not have a major impact on charge transport. Trap-assisted recombination at interfacial trap states was investigated, as well as the surface dipole caused by the trapped charges. A theoretical expression for the ideality factor n_id as a function of generation was derived and shown to agree with simulation data. When the theoretical expression was fitted to simulation data, no interface dipole was observed.

Reliability Estimation of Open Source Software based Computational Systems

Software systems are progressively being deployed in many facets of human life. The implication of the failure of such systems, has an assorted impact on its customers. The fundamental aspect that supports a software system, is focus on quality. Reliability describes the ability of the system to function under specified environment for a specified period of time and is used to objectively measure the quality. Evaluation of reliability of a computing system involves computation of hardware and software reliability. Most of the earlier works were given focus on software reliability with no consideration for hardware parts or vice versa. However, a complete estimation of reliability of a computing system requires these two elements to be considered together, and thus demands a combined approach. The present work focuses on this and presents a model for evaluating the reliability of a computing system. The method involves identifying the failure data for hardware components, software components and building a model based on it, to predict the reliability. To develop such a model, focus is given to the systems based on Open Source Software, since there is an increasing trend towards its use and only a few studies were reported on the modeling and measurement of the reliability of such products. The present work includes a thorough study on the role of Free and Open Source Software, evaluation of reliability growth models, and is trying to present an integrated model for the prediction of reliability of a computational system. The developed model has been compared with existing models and its usefulness of is being discussed.

A comparison of three different models for estimating relative risk in meta-analysis of clinical trials under unobserved heterogeneity

We focus on the comparison of three statistical models used to estimate the treatment effect in metaanalysis when individually pooled data are available. The models are two conventional models, namely a multi-level and a model based upon an approximate likelihood, and a newly developed model, the profile likelihood model which might be viewed as an extension of the Mantel-Haenszel approach. To exemplify these methods, we use results from a meta-analysis of 22 trials to prevent respiratory tract infections. We show that by using the multi-level approach, in the case of baseline heterogeneity, the number of clusters or components is considerably over-estimated. The approximate and profile likelihood method showed nearly the same pattern for the treatment effect distribution. To provide more evidence two simulation studies are accomplished. The profile likelihood can be considered as a clear alternative to the approximate likelihood model. In the case of strong baseline heterogeneity, the profile likelihood method shows superior behaviour when compared with the multi-level model. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A pressure-jump time-resolved x-ray diffraction study of cubic-cubic transition kinetics in monoolein

In the past two decades, the geometric pathways involved in the transformations between inverse bicontinuous cubic phases in amphiphilic systems have been extensively theoretically modeled. However, little experimental data exists on the cubic-cubic transformation in pure lipid systems. We have used pressure-jump time-resolved X-ray diffraction to investigate the transition between the gyroid Q(II)(G) and double-diamond Q(II)(D) phases in mixtures of 1-monoolein in 30 wt% water. We find for this system that the cubic-cubic transition occurs without any detectable intermediate structures. In addition, we have determined the kinetics of the transition, in both the forward and reverse directions, as a function of pressure-jump amplitude, temperature, and water content. A recently developed model allows (at least in principle) the calculation of the activation energy for lipid phase transitions from such data. The analysis is applicable only if kinetic reproducibility is achieved, at least within one sample, and achievement of such kinetic reproducibility is shown here, by carrying out prolonged pressure-cycling. The rate of transformation shows clear and consistent trends with pressure-jump amplitude, temperature, and water content, all of which are shown to be in agreement with the effect of the shift in the position of the cubic-cubic phase boundary following a change in the thermodynamic parameters.

Establishing a connection between knowledge transfer and innovation diffusion

Successful innovation diffusion process may well take the form of knowledge transfer process. Therefore, the primary objectives of this paper include: first, to evaluate the interrelations between transfer of knowledge and diffusion of innovation; and second to develop a model to establish a connection between the two. This has been achieved using a four-step approach. The first step of the approach is to assess and discuss the theories relating to knowledge transfer (KT) and innovation diffusion (ID). The second step focuses on developing basic models for KT and ID, based on the key theories surrounding these areas. A considerable amount of literature has been written on the association between knowledge management and innovation, the respective fields of KT and ID. The next step, therefore, explores the relationship between innovation and knowledge management in order to identify the connections between the latter, i.e. KT and ID. Finally, step four proposes and develops an integrated model for KT and ID. As the developed model suggests the sub-processes of knowledge transfer can be connected to the innovation diffusion process in several instances as discussed and illustrated in the paper.

An easily implemented agro-hydrological procedure with dynamic root simulation for water transfer in the crop-soil system: validation and application

Models for water transfer in the crop-soil system are key components of agro-hydrological models for irrigation, fertilizer and pesticide practices. Many of the hydrological models for water transfer in the crop-soil system are either too approximate due to oversimplified algorithms or employ complex numerical schemes. In this paper we developed a simple and sufficiently accurate algorithm which can be easily adopted in agro-hydrological models for the simulation of water dynamics. We used a dual crop coefficient approach proposed by the FAO for estimating potential evaporation and transpiration, and a dynamic model for calculating relative root length distribution on a daily basis. In a small time step of 0.001 d, we implemented algorithms separately for actual evaporation, root water uptake and soil water content redistribution by decoupling these processes. The Richards equation describing soil water movement was solved using an integration strategy over the soil layers instead of complex numerical schemes. This drastically simplified the procedures of modeling soil water and led to much shorter computer codes. The validity of the proposed model was tested against data from field experiments on two contrasting soils cropped with wheat. Good agreement was achieved between measurement and simulation of soil water content in various depths collected at intervals during crop growth. This indicates that the model is satisfactory in simulating water transfer in the crop-soil system, and therefore can reliably be adopted in agro-hydrological models. Finally we demonstrated how the developed model could be used to study the effect of changes in the environment such as lowering the groundwater table caused by the construction of a motorway on crop transpiration. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impact of office productivity cloud computing on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

Cloud computing is usually regarded as being energy efficient and thus emitting less greenhouse gases (GHG) than traditional forms of computing. When the energy consumption of Microsoft’s cloud computing Office 365 (O365) and traditional Office 2010 (O2010) software suites were tested and modeled, some cloud services were found to consume more energy than the traditional form. The developed model in this research took into consideration the energy consumption at the three main stages of data transmission; data center, network, and end user device. Comparable products from each suite were selected and activities were defined for each product to represent a different computing type. Microsoft provided highly confidential data for the data center stage, while the networking and user device stages were measured directly. A new measurement and software apportionment approach was defined and utilized allowing the power consumption of cloud services to be directly measured for the user device stage. Results indicated that cloud computing is more energy efficient for Excel and Outlook which consumed less energy and emitted less GHG than the standalone counterpart. The power consumption of the cloud based Outlook (8%) and Excel (17%) was lower than their traditional counterparts. However, the power consumption of the cloud version of Word was 17% higher than its traditional equivalent. A third mixed access method was also measured for Word which emitted 5% more GHG than the traditional version. It is evident that cloud computing may not provide a unified way forward to reduce energy consumption and GHG. Direct conversion from the standalone package into the cloud provision platform can now consider energy and GHG emissions at the software development and cloud service design stage using the methods described in this research.

Development of the Surface Urban Energy and Water balance Scheme (SUEWS) for cold climate cities

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is developed to include snow. The processes addressed include accumulation of snow on the different urban surface types: snow albedo and density aging, snow melting and re-freezing of meltwater. Individual model parameters are assessed and independently evaluated using long-term observations in the two cold climate cities of Helsinki and Montreal. Eddy covariance sensible and latent heat fluxes and snow depth observations are available for two sites in Montreal and one in Helsinki. Surface runoff from two catchments (24 and 45 ha) in Helsinki and snow properties (albedo and density) from two sites in Montreal are also analysed. As multiple observation sites with different land-cover characteristics are available in both cities, model development is conducted independent of evaluation. The developed model simulates snowmelt related runoff well (within 19% and 3% for the two catchments in Helsinki when there is snow on the ground), with the springtime peak estimated correctly. However, the observed runoff peaks tend to be smoother than the simulated ones, likely due to the water holding capacity of the catchments and the missing time lag between the catchment and the observation point in the model. For all three sites the model simulates the timing of the snow accumulation and melt events well, but underestimates the total snow depth by 18–20% in Helsinki and 29–33% in Montreal. The model is able to reproduce the diurnal pattern of net radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat during cold snow, melting snow and snow-free periods. The largest model uncertainties are related to the timing of the melting period and the parameterization of the snowmelt. The results show that the enhanced model can simulate correctly the exchange of energy and water in cold climate cities at sites with varying surface cover.

Densities and Viscosities of vegetable oils of nutritional value

Densities and viscosities of five vegetable oils (Babassu oil, Buriti oil, Brazil nut oil, macadamia oil, and grape seed oil) and of three blends of Buriti oil and soybean oil were measured as a function of temperature and correlated by empirical equations. The estimation capability of two types of predictive methodologies was tested using the measured data. The first group of methods was based on the fatty acid composition of the oils, while the other was based on their triacylglycerol composition, as a multicomponent system. In general, the six models tested presented a good representation of the physical properties considered in this work. A simple method of calculation is also proposed to predict the dynamic viscosity of methyl and ethyl ester biodiesels, based on the fatty acid composition of the original oil. Data presented in this work and the developed model can be valuable for designing processes and equipment for the edible oil industry and for biodiesel production.

Att tillämpa återkommande mätning av kundnöjdhet i IT-projekt : En vidareutvecklad modell baserad på modellerna American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) och SERVQUAL

I dagens samhälle är det allt viktigare för företag att behålla sina existerande kunder då konkurrensen blir allt hårdare. Detta medför att företag försöker vidta åtgärder för att vårda relationer med sina kunder. Detta problem är även högst relevant inom IT-branschen. Inom IT-branschen är det vanligt att arbeta agilt i IT-projekt. Vår samarbetspartner har sett ett ökat behov av att mäta servicekvalitet på ett återkommande sätt inom IT-projekt, detta för att mäta relevanta variabler som sträcker sig utanför kravspecifikationen. För att mäta framgång gällande detta arbetssätt vill man kunna mäta Nöjd Kund Index (NKI) för att kunna jämföra IT-projekt internt i företaget. Då tidigare forskning visat avsaknad av modeller innehållande både mätning av servicekvalitet samt NKI har lämplig litteratur studerats där det framkommit att modellen SERVQUAL är vedertagen för mätning av servicekvalitet och modellen American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) är vedertagen för mätning av NKI. Detta har legat till grund för arbetets problemformulering och syfte. Syftet med arbetet är att skapa en vidareutvecklad modell för mätning av NKI för att jämföra IT-projekt internt samt återkommande mätning av servicekvalitet inom IT-projekt. Framtagande av denna modell har sedan skett genom forskningsstrategin Design and Creation. Intervjuer har genomförts för kravfångst till den vidareutvecklade modellen. Resultatet av denna forskningsstrategi blev sedan en vidareutvecklad modell baserad på ovan nämnda modeller med återkommande förhållningssätt för mätning av servicekvalitet inom IT-projekt och mätning av NKI för att jämföra IT-projekt internt i företaget. Den framtagna modellen har sedan verifierats genom ytterligare intervjuer med respondenter som innehar god erfarenhet från kundsidan av IT-projekt. Från dessa intervjuer kunde sedan slutsats dras att denna modell är att anse som applicerbar i empirin gällande IT-projekt.

Optimal Rehabilitation Strategy In Water Distribution Systems Considering Reduction In Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Most of water distribution systems (WDS) need rehabilitation due to aging infrastructure leading to decreasing capacity, increasing leakage and consequently low performance of the WDS. However an appropriate strategy including location and time of pipeline rehabilitation in a WDS with respect to a limited budget is the main challenge which has been addressed frequently by researchers and practitioners. On the other hand, selection of appropriate rehabilitation technique and material types is another main issue which has yet to address properly. The latter can affect the environmental impacts of a rehabilitation strategy meeting the challenges of global warming mitigation and consequent climate change. This paper presents a multi-objective optimization model for rehabilitation strategy in WDS addressing the abovementioned criteria mainly focused on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions either directly from fossil fuel and electricity or indirectly from embodied energy of materials. Thus, the objective functions are to minimise: (1) the total cost of rehabilitation including capital and operational costs; (2) the leakage amount; (3) GHG emissions. The Pareto optimal front containing optimal solutions is determined using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm NSGA-II. Decision variables in this optimisation problem are classified into a number of groups as: (1) percentage proportion of each rehabilitation technique each year; (2) material types of new pipeline for rehabilitation each year. Rehabilitation techniques used here includes replacement, rehabilitation and lining, cleaning, pipe duplication. The developed model is demonstrated through its application to a Mahalat WDS located in central part of Iran. The rehabilitation strategy is analysed for a 40 year planning horizon. A number of conventional techniques for selecting pipes for rehabilitation are analysed in this study. The results show that the optimal rehabilitation strategy considering GHG emissions is able to successfully save the total expenses, efficiently decrease the leakage amount from the WDS whilst meeting environmental criteria.