NON-GAUSSIAN STATISTICS OF OIL PRICING TIME-SERIES: A CASE STUDY

The stochastic nature of oil price fluctuations is investigated over a twelve-year period, borrowing feedback from an existing database (USA Energy Information Administration database, available online). We evaluate the scaling exponents of the fluctuations by employing different statistical analysis methods, namely rescaled range analysis (R/S), scale windowed variance analysis (SWV) and the generalized Hurst exponent (GH) method. Relying on the scaling exponents obtained, we apply a rescaling procedure to investigate the complex characteristics of the probability density functions (PDFs) dominating oil price fluctuations. It is found that PDFs exhibit scale invariance, and in fact collapse onto a single curve when increments are measured over microscales (typically less than 30 days). The time evolution of the distributions is well fitted by a Levy-type stable distribution. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer. Our results also exhibit a degree of multifractality as the PDFs change and converge toward to a Gaussian distribution at the macroscales.

Limitations of instantaneous water quality sampling in surface-water catchments: Comparison with near-continuous phosphorus time-series data.

The validity of load estimates from intermittent, instantaneous grab sampling is dependent on adequate spatial coverage by monitoring networks and a sampling frequency that re?ects the variability in the system under study. Catchments with a ?ashy hydrology due to surface runoff pose a particular challenge as intense short duration rainfall events may account for a signi?cant portion of the total diffuse transfer of pollution from soil to water in any hydrological year. This can also be exacerbated by the presence of strong background pollution signals from point sources during low flows. In this paper, a range of sampling methodologies and load estimation techniques are applied to phosphorus data from such a surface water dominated river system, instrumented at three sub-catchments (ranging from 3 to 5 km2 in area) with near-continuous monitoring stations. Systematic and Monte Carlo approaches were applied to simulate grab sampling using multiple strategies and to calculate an estimated load, Le based on established load estimation methods. Comparison with the actual load, Lt, revealed signi?cant average underestimation, of up to 60%, and high variability for all feasible sampling approaches. Further analysis of the time series provides an insight into these observations; revealing peak frequencies and power-law scaling in the distributions of P concentration, discharge and load associated with surface runoff and background transfers. Results indicate that only near-continuous monitoring that re?ects the rapid temporal changes in these river systems is adequate for comparative monitoring and evaluation purposes. While the implications of this analysis may be more tenable to small scale ?ashy systems, this represents an appropriate scale in terms of evaluating catchment mitigation strategies such as agri-environmental policies for managing diffuse P transfers in complex landscapes.

Income ineqaulity from 1960-2012: a brief time-series history of capital and labour

This commentary examines two principal forms of inequality and their evolution since the 1960s: the division of national income between capital and labour, and the share of total income held by the top 1 per cent of earners. Trends are linked to current discussions of inequality drivers such as financialisation, and a brief time-series analysis of the effects of trade and financial sector growth on top incomes is presented.

Optimal Time Series Momentum

We develop a continuous-time asset price model to capture the timeseries momentum documented recently. The underlying stochastic delay differentialsystem facilitates the analysis of effects of different time horizons used bymomentum trading. By studying an optimal asset allocation problem, we find thatthe performance of time series momentum strategy can be significantly improvedby combining with market fundamentals and timing opportunity with respect tomarket trend and volatility. Furthermore, the results also hold for different timehorizons, the out-of-sample tests and with short-sale constraints. The outperformanceof the optimal strategy is immune to market states, investor sentiment andmarket volatility.

Musicologist-driven writer identification in early music manuscripts

Recent renewed interest in computational writer identification has resulted in an increased number of publications. In relation to historical musicology its application has so far been limited. One of the obstacles seems to be that the clarity of the images from the scans available for computational analysis is often not sufficient. In this paper, the use of the Hinge feature is proposed to avoid segmentation and staff-line removal for effective feature extraction from low quality scans. The use of an auto encoder in Hinge feature space is suggested as an alternative to staff-line removal by image processing, and their performance is compared. The result of the experiment shows an accuracy of 87 % for the dataset containing 84 writers’ samples, and superiority of our segmentation and staff-line removal free approach. Practical analysis on Bach’s autograph manuscript of the Well-Tempered Clavier II (Additional MS. 35021 in the British Library, London) is also presented and the extensive applicability of our approach is demonstrated.

Open Source Telecommunications Framework for Time-Series Data from Smart Grid Sensors.

This paper presents a framework for a telecommunications interface which allows data from sensors embedded in Smart Grid applications to reliably archive data in an appropriate time-series database. The challenge in doing so is two-fold, firstly the various formats in which sensor data is represented, secondly the problems of telecoms reliability. A prototype of the authors' framework is detailed which showcases the main features of the framework in a case study featuring Phasor Measurement Units (PMU) as the application. Useful analysis of PMU data is achieved whenever data from multiple locations can be compared on a common time axis. The prototype developed highlights its reliability, extensibility and adoptability; features which are largely deferred from industry standards for data representation to proprietary database solutions. The open source framework presented provides link reliability for any type of Smart Grid sensor and is interoperable with existing proprietary database systems, and open database systems. The features of the authors' framework allow for researchers and developers to focus on the core of their real-time or historical analysis applications, rather than having to spend time interfacing with complex protocols.

Minimal state-space realizations of 2D convolutional codes

In this thesis we consider two-dimensional (2D) convolutional codes. As happens in the one-dimensional (1D) case one of the major issues is obtaining minimal state-space realizations for these codes. It turns out that the problem of minimal realization of codes is not equivalent to the minimal realization of encoders. This is due to the fact that the same code may admit different encoders with different McMillan degrees. Here we focus on the study of minimality of the realizations of 2D convolutional codes by means of separable Roesser models. Such models can be regarded as a series connection between two 1D systems. As a first step we provide an algorithm to obtain a minimal realization of a 1D convolutional code starting from a minimal realization of an encoder of the code. Then, we restrict our study to two particular classes of 2D convolutional codes. The first class to be considered is the one of codes which admit encoders of type n 1. For these codes, minimal encoders (i.e., encoders for which a minimal realization is also minimal as a code realization) are characterized enabling the construction of minimal code realizations starting from such encoders. The second class of codes to be considered is the one constituted by what we have called composition codes. For a subclass of these codes, we propose a method to obtain minimal realizations by means of separable Roesser models.

Parallel decoding of turbo codes using multi-point trellis termination and collision-free interleavers

The UMTS turbo encoder is composed of parallel concatenation of two Recursive Systematic Convolutional (RSC) encoders which start and end at a known state. This trellis termination directly affects the performance of turbo codes. This paper presents performance analysis of multi-point trellis termination of turbo codes which is to terminate RSC encoders at more than one point of the current frame while keeping the interleaver length the same. For long interleaver lengths, this approach provides dividing a data frame into sub-frames which can be treated as independent blocks. A novel decoding architecture using multi-point trellis termination and collision-free interleavers is presented. Collision-free interleavers are used to solve memory collision problems encountered by parallel decoding of turbo codes. The proposed parallel decoding architecture reduces the decoding delay caused by the iterative nature and forward-backward metric computations of turbo decoding algorithms. Our simulations verified that this turbo encoding and decoding scheme shows Bit Error Rate (BER) performance very close to that of the UMTS turbo coding while providing almost %50 time saving for the 2-point termination and %80 time saving for the 5-point termination.

Sistema eletromecânico para controlo intuitivo dos movimentos de uma sonda transesofágica

O ser humano realiza uma alimentação pouco variada, com grandes teores de açúcar e gorduras saturadas, ao mesmo tempo, está sujeito a profissões cada vez mais competitivas aonde passa longos períodos sentados sem qualquer esforço físico. Estes aspetos levam à acumulação de gorduras em redor de todos os órgãos, que promovem o aparecimento de problemas cardiovascular, que são atualmente, a principal causa de morte no mundo. O tratamento das doenças cardiovasculares é em muitas situações realizado por procedimentos minimamente-invasivos, que são guiados através de imagem médica. Contudo, a utilização de radiação durante a navegação é normalmente requerida o que tem consequências para o paciente e para a equipa médica. Nesta dissertação, focamo-nos nos recentes sistemas de aquisição de imagem sem radiação e no desenvolvimento de sistemas mais inteligentes para facilitar o controlo destes equipamentos durante o procedimento. Assim, pretendemos desenvolver um robô que apoie na aquisição de imagens de ultrassons através de uma sonda transesofágica. O robô desenvolvido possui um conjunto de engrenagens que fazem a transferência de movimento para as rodas dos manípulos da sonda e um encoder magnético que proporciona uma leitura rápida e de alta precisão dos movimentos da sonda. De forma a automaticamente adaptar a posição da sonda na direção do alvo anatómico, um sistema de motion tracking foi acoplado ao robô e ao instrumento cirúrgico utilizado durante o procedimento. Assim, todos os movimentos realizados pelo intervencionista são repetidos pela sonda, permitindo assim adquirir uma imagem de ultrassom sempre centrada no instrumento cirúrgico. Para avaliar a performance do robô foram realizados testes em laboratório. mais concretamente: 1) controlo do robô sem sonda acoplada e 2) controlo do robô com sonda acoplada. Os testes foram realizados com diferentes posições angulares, em todas as gamas de funcionamento do robô, avaliando o erro da posição final em relação posição desejada e o tempo de resposta. Os resultados demonstraram que um erro médio de 2º foi observado para as diferentes situações com um tempo médio de resposta de 300 ms. Os resultados alcançados demonstraram uma boa resposta do sistema, pelo que se espera que sistema desenvolvido venha ser capaz de reduzir o tempo de intervenção, aumentando a qualidade da intervenção e minimizando possíveis erros.

Low Complexity Intra Mode Selection for Efficient Distributed Video Coding

Motion compensated frame interpolation (MCFI) is one of the most efficient solutions to generate side information (SI) in the context of distributed video coding. However, it creates SI with rather significant motion compensated errors for some frame regions while rather small for some other regions depending on the video content. In this paper, a low complexity Infra mode selection algorithm is proposed to select the most 'critical' blocks in the WZ frame and help the decoder with some reliable data for those blocks. For each block, the novel coding mode selection algorithm estimates the encoding rate for the Intra based and WZ coding modes and determines the best coding mode while maintaining a low encoder complexity. The proposed solution is evaluated in terms of rate-distortion performance with improvements up to 1.2 dB regarding a WZ coding mode only solution.

Advanced side information creation techniques and framework for Wyner-Ziv video coding

Recently, several distributed video coding (DVC) solutions based on the distributed source coding (DSC) paradigm have appeared in the literature. Wyner-Ziv (WZ) video coding, a particular case of DVC where side information is made available at the decoder, enable to achieve a flexible distribution of the computational complexity between the encoder and decoder, promising to fulfill novel requirements from applications such as video surveillance, sensor networks and mobile camera phones. The quality of the side information at the decoder has a critical role in determining the WZ video coding rate-distortion (RD) performance, notably to raise it to a level as close as possible to the RD performance of standard predictive video coding schemes. Towards this target, efficient motion search algorithms for powerful frame interpolation are much needed at the decoder. In this paper, the RD performance of a Wyner-Ziv video codec is improved by using novel, advanced motion compensated frame interpolation techniques to generate the side information. The development of these type of side information estimators is a difficult problem in WZ video coding, especially because the decoder only has available some reference, decoded frames. Based on the regularization of the motion field, novel side information creation techniques are proposed in this paper along with a new frame interpolation framework able to generate higher quality side information at the decoder. To illustrate the RD performance improvements, this novel side information creation framework has been integrated in a transform domain turbo coding based Wyner-Ziv video codec. Experimental results show that the novel side information creation solution leads to better RD performance than available state-of-the-art side information estimators, with improvements up to 2 dB: moreover, it allows outperforming H.264/AVC Intra by up to 3 dB with a lower encoding complexity.