Electricity market price spike forecast with data mining techniques

Electricity market price forecast is a changeling yet very important task for electricity market managers and participants. Due to the complexity and uncertainties in the power grid, electricity prices are highly volatile and normally carry with spikes. which may be (ens or even hundreds of times higher than the normal price. Such electricity spikes are very difficult to be predicted. So far. most of the research on electricity price forecast is based on the normal range electricity prices. This paper proposes a data mining based electricity price forecast framework, which can predict the normal price as well as the price spikes. The normal price can be, predicted by a previously proposed wavelet and neural network based forecast model, while the spikes are forecasted based on a data mining approach. This paper focuses on the spike prediction and explores the reasons for price spikes based on the measurement of a proposed composite supply-demand balance index (SDI) and relative demand index (RDI). These indices are able to reflect the relationship among electricity demand, electricity supply and electricity reserve capacity. The proposed model is based on a mining database including market clearing price, trading hour. electricity), demand, electricity supply and reserve. Bayesian classification and similarity searching techniques are used to mine the database to find out the internal relationships between electricity price spikes and these proposed. The mining results are used to form the price spike forecast model. This proposed model is able to generate forecasted price spike, level of spike and associated forecast confidence level. The model is tested with the Queensland electricity market data with promising results. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal variations of EPG levels in gastro-intestinal parasitic infection in a southeast asian controlled locale:a statistical analysis

We present a data based statistical study on the effects of seasonal variations in the growth rates of the gastro-intestinal (GI) parasitic infection in livestock. The alluded growth rate is estimated through the variation in the number of eggs per gram (EPG) of faeces in animals. In accordance with earlier studies, our analysis too shows that rainfall is the dominant variable in determining EPG infection rates compared to other macro-parameters like temperature and humidity. Our statistical analysis clearly indicates an oscillatory dependence of EPG levels on rainfall fluctuations. Monsoon recorded the highest infection with a comparative increase of at least 2.5 times compared to the next most infected period (summer). A least square fit of the EPG versus rainfall data indicates an approach towards a super diffusive (i. e. root mean square displacement growing faster than the square root of the elapsed time as obtained for simple diffusion) infection growth pattern regime for low rainfall regimes (technically defined as zeroth level dependence) that gets remarkably augmented for large rainfall zones. Our analysis further indicates that for low fluctuations in temperature (true on the bulk data), EPG level saturates beyond a critical value of the rainfall, a threshold that is expected to indicate the onset of the nonlinear regime. The probability density functions (PDFs) of the EPG data show oscillatory behavior in the large rainfall regime (greater than 500 mm), the frequency of oscillation, once again, being determined by the ambient wetness (rainfall, and humidity). Data recorded over three pilot projects spanning three measures of rainfall and humidity bear testimony to the universality of this statistical argument. © 2013 Chattopadhyay and Bandyopadhyay.

Teaching Statistics to Engineers: Learning from Experiential Data

The purpose of the work is to claim that engineers can be motivated to study statistical concepts by using the applications in their experience connected with Statistical ideas. The main idea is to choose a data from the manufacturing factility (for example, output from CMM machine) and explain that even if the parts used do not meet exact specifications they are used in production. By graphing the data one can show that the error is random but follows a distribution, that is, there is regularily in the data in statistical sense. As the error distribution is continuous, we advocate that the concept of randomness be introducted starting with continuous random variables with probabilities connected with areas under the density. The discrete random variables are then introduced in terms of decision connected with size of the errors before generalizing to abstract concept of probability. Using software, they can then be motivated to study statistical analysis of the data they encounter and the use of this analysis to make engineering and management decisions.

Avaliação do cuidado de enfermagem na perspectiva da segurança do paciente em unidades de terapia intensiva: na visão de profissionais, pacientes e familiares

Technological advances combined with healthcare assistance bring increased risks related to patient safety, causing health institutions to be environments susceptible to losses in the provided care. Sectors of high complexity, such as Intensive Care Units have such characteristics highlighted due to being spaces designed for the care of patients in serious medical condition, when the use of advanced technological devices becomes a necessity. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess nursing care from the perspective of patient safety in intensive care units. This is an evaluative research, which combines various forms of data collection and analysis in order to conduct a deepened investigation. Data collection occurred in loco, from April to July 2014 in hospitals equipped with adult intensive care unit services. For this, a checklist instrument and semi-structured interviews conducted with patients, families, professionals were used in order to evaluate the structure-process-outcome triad. The instrument for nursing care assessment regarding Patient Safety included 97 questions related to structure and processes. Interviews provided data for outcome analysis. The selection of interviewees/participants was based on the willingness of potential participants. The following methods were used to collect data resulting from the instrument: statistical analysis of inter-rater reliability measure known as kappa (K); observations from judges resulting from the observation process; and added information obtained from the literature on the thematic. Data analysis from the interviews was carried out with IRAMUTEQ software, which used Descending Hierarchical Classification and Similarity analysis to aid in data interpretation. Research steps followed the ethical principles presented by Resolution No. 466 of December 12, 2012, and the results were presented in three manuscripts: 1) Evaluation of patient safety in Intensive Care Units: a focus on structure; 2) Health evaluation processes: a nursing care perspective on patient safety; 3) Patient safety in intensive care units: perception of nurses, family members and patients. The first article, related to the structure, refers to the use of 24 items of the employed instrument, showing that most of the findings were not aligned with the adequacy standards, which indicates poor conditions in structures offered in health services. The second article provides an analysis of the pillar of Processes, with the use of 73 items of the instrument, showing that 50 items did not meet the required standards for safe handling due to the absence of adequate scientific guidance and effective communication in nursing care process. For the third article, results indicate that intensive care units were safe places, yet urges for changes, especially in the physical structure and availability of materials and communication among professionals, patients and families. Therefore, our findings suggest that the nursing care being provided in the evaluated intensive care units contains troubling shortcomings with regards to patient safety, thereby evidencing an insecure setting for the assistance offered, in addition to a need for urgent measures to remedy the identified inadequacies with appropriate structures and implement protocols and care guidelines in order to consolidate an environment more favorable to patient safety.

Statistical forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop

Three types of forecasts of the total Australian production of macadamia nuts (t nut-in-shell) have been produced early each year since 2001. The first is a long-term forecast, based on the expected production from the tree census data held by the Australian Macadamia Society, suitably scaled up for missing data and assumed new plantings each year. These long-term forecasts range out to 10 years in the future, and form a basis for industry and market planning. Secondly, a statistical adjustment (termed the climate-adjusted forecast) is made annually for the coming crop. As the name suggests, climatic influences are the dominant factors in this adjustment process, however, other terms such as bienniality of bearing, prices and orchard aging are also incorporated. Thirdly, industry personnel are surveyed early each year, with their estimates integrated into a growers and pest-scouts forecast. Initially conducted on a 'whole-country' basis, these models are now constructed separately for the six main production regions of Australia, with these being combined for national totals. Ensembles or suites of step-forward regression models using biologically-relevant variables have been the major statistical method adopted, however, developing methodologies such as nearest-neighbour techniques, general additive models and random forests are continually being evaluated in parallel. The overall error rates average 14% for the climate forecasts, and 12% for the growers' forecasts. These compare with 7.8% for USDA almond forecasts (based on extensive early-crop sampling) and 6.8% for coconut forecasts in Sri Lanka. However, our somewhatdisappointing results were mainly due to a series of poor crops attributed to human reasons, which have now been factored into the models. Notably, the 2012 and 2013 forecasts averaged 7.8 and 4.9% errors, respectively. Future models should also show continuing improvement, as more data-years become available.

Statistical detection of online drifting twitter spam

Spam has become a critical problem in online social networks. This paper focuses on Twitter spam detection. Recent research works focus on applying machine learning techniques for Twitter spam detection, which make use of the statistical features of tweets. We observe existing machine learning based detection methods suffer from the problem of Twitter spam drift, i.e., the statistical properties of spam tweets vary over time. To avoid this problem, an effective solution is to train one twitter spam classifier every day. However, it faces a challenge of the small number of imbalanced training data because labelling spam samples is time-consuming. This paper proposes a new method to address this challenge. The new method employs two new techniques, fuzzy-based redistribution and asymmetric sampling. We develop a fuzzy-based information decomposition technique to re-distribute the spam class and generate more spam samples. Moreover, an asymmetric sampling technique is proposed to re-balance the sizes of spam samples and non-spam samples in the training data. Finally, we apply the ensemble technique to combine the spam classifiers over two different training sets. A number of experiments are performed on a real-world 10-day ground-truth dataset to evaluate the new method. Experiments results show that the new method can significantly improve the detection performance for drifting Twitter spam.

Inferences about Parameters of Trivariate Normal Distribution with Missing Data

Multivariate normal distribution is commonly encountered in any field, a frequent issue is the missing values in practice. The purpose of this research was to estimate the parameters in three-dimensional covariance permutation-symmetric normal distribution with complete data and all possible patterns of incomplete data. In this study, MLE with missing data were derived, and the properties of the MLE as well as the sampling distributions were obtained. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to evaluate the performance of the considered estimators for both cases when ρ was known and unknown. All results indicated that, compared to estimators in the case of omitting observations with missing data, the estimators derived in this article led to better performance. Furthermore, when ρ was unknown, using the estimate of ρ would lead to the same conclusion.

Synchronous fluorescence and UV–vis spectroscopic studies of interactions between the tetracycline antibiotic, aluminium ions and DNA with the aid of the Methylene Blue dye probe

Synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy (SFS) was applied for the investigation of interactions of the antibiotic, tetracycline (TC), with DNA in the presence of aluminium ions (Al3+). The study was facilitated by the use of the Methylene Blue (MB) dye probe, and the interpretation of the spectral data with the aid of the chemometrics method, parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). Three-way synchronous fluorescence analysis extracted the important optimum constant wavelength differences, Δλ, and showed that for the TC–Al3+–DNA, TC–Al3+ and MB dye systems, the associated Δλ values were different (Δλ = 80, 75 and 30 nm, respectively). Subsequent PARAFAC analysis demonstrated the extraction of the equilibrium concentration profiles for the TC–Al3+, TC–Al3+–DNA and MB probe systems. This information is unobtainable by conventional means of data interpretation. The results indicated that the MB dye interacted with the TC–Al3+–DNA surface complex, presumably via a reaction intermediate, TC–Al3+–DNA–MB, leading to the displacement of the TC–Al3+ by the incoming MB dye probe.

Gender differences and store characteristics : a study of Australian supermarket consumers

It is argued, there is a paucity of research with regard to male and female consumer behaviour in the context of supermarket shopping in Australia. The purpose of this paper is to identify the differences between male and female shoppers rating the importance of store characteristics within an Australian Supermarket retail environment. A survey gathered data from two hundred and eighty male and female grocery shoppers, across four major Brisbane supermarkets. A simple-random-sample, collection methodology was employed to collect data. Significant statistical differences between male and female grocery shoppers were evident on all ten store characteristics constructs. Significant gender differences featured on twenty-eight of thirty scale items tested. Female grocery shoppers considered supermarket store characteristics more important than male shoppers. This study has implications for sociology, gender studies and consumer behaviour disciplines. It also has commercial implications for food retail management and consumer marketing activities that can positively influence consumer participation levels, increased store revenues and profitability.

Using the Precede-Proceed Model of Health Program Planning in breast cancer nursing research

Aim: In this paper we discuss the use of the Precede-Proceed model when investigating health promotion options for breast cancer survivors. Background: Adherence to recommended health behaviors can optimize well-being after cancer treatment. Guided by the Precede-Proceed approach, we studied the behaviors of breast cancer survivors in our health service area. Data sources: The interview data from the cohort of breast cancer survivors are used in this paper to illustrate the use of Precede-Proceed in this nursing research context. Interview data were collected from June to December 2009. We also searched Medline, CINAHL, PsychInfo and PsychExtra up to 2010 for relevant literature in English to interrogate the data from other theoretical perspectives. Discussion: The Precede-Proceed model is theoretically-complex. The deductive analytic process guided by the model usefully explained some of the health behaviors of cancer survivors, although it could not explicate many other findings. A complementary inductive approach to the analysis and subsequent interpretation by way of Uncertainty in Illness Theory and other psychosocial perspectives provided a comprehensive account of the qualitative data that resulted in contextually-relevant recommendations for nursing practice. Implications for nursing: Nursing researchers using Precede-Proceed should maintain theoretical flexibility when interpreting qualitative data. Perspectives not embedded in the model might need to be considered to ensure that the data are analyzed in a contextually-relevant way. Conclusion: Precede-Proceed provides a robust framework for nursing researchers investigating health promotion in cancer survivors; however additional theoretical lenses to those embedded in the model can enhance data interpretation.

Photochemistry and chemometrics : an overview

Photochemistry has made significant contributions to our understanding of many important natural processes as well as the scientific discoveries of the man-made world. The measurements from such studies are often complex and may require advanced data interpretation with the use of multivariate or chemometrics methods. In general, such methods have been applied successfully for data display, classification, multivariate curve resolution and prediction in analytical chemistry, environmental chemistry, engineering, medical research and industry. However, in photochemistry, by comparison, applications of such multivariate approaches were found to be less frequent although a variety of methods have been used, especially with spectroscopic photochemical applications. The methods include Principal Component Analysis (PCA; data display), Partial Least Squares (PLS; prediction), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN; prediction) and several models for multivariate curve resolution related to Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC; decomposition of complex responses). Applications of such methods are discussed in this overview and typical examples include photodegradation of herbicides, prediction of antibiotics in human fluids (fluorescence spectroscopy), non-destructive in- and on-line monitoring (near infrared spectroscopy) and fast-time resolution of spectroscopic signals from photochemical reactions. It is also quite clear from the literature that the scope of spectroscopic photochemistry was enhanced by the application of chemometrics. To highlight and encourage further applications of chemometrics in photochemistry, several additional chemometrics approaches are discussed using data collected by the authors. The use of a PCA biplot is illustrated with an analysis of a matrix containing data on the performance of photocatalysts developed for water splitting and hydrogen production. In addition, the applications of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) ranking methods and Fuzzy Clustering are demonstrated with an analysis of water quality data matrix. Other examples of topics include the application of simultaneous kinetic spectroscopic methods for prediction of pesticides, and the use of response fingerprinting approach for classification of medicinal preparations. In general, the overview endeavours to emphasise the advantages of chemometrics' interpretation of multivariate photochemical data, and an Appendix of references and summaries of common and less usual chemometrics methods noted in this work, is provided. Crown Copyright © 2010.

Complex modelling in the primary/middle school years

The world’s increasing complexity, competitiveness, interconnectivity, and dependence on technology generate new challenges for nations and individuals that cannot be met by continuing education as usual (Katehi, Pearson, & Feder, 2009). With the proliferation of complex systems have come new technologies for communication, collaboration, and conceptualisation. These technologies have led to significant changes in the forms of mathematical and scientific thinking that are required beyond the classroom. Modelling, in its various forms, can develop and broaden children’s mathematical and scientific thinking beyond the standard curriculum. This paper first considers future competencies in the mathematical sciences within an increasingly complex world. Next, consideration is given to interdisciplinary problem solving and models and modelling. Examples of complex, interdisciplinary modelling activities across grades are presented, with data modelling in 1st grade, model-eliciting in 4th grade, and engineering-based modelling in 7th-9th grades.

Young adults’ accounts of scientific knowledge when responding to a television news report of contested science

This paper reports one aspect of a study of 28 young adults (18–26 years) engaging with the uncertain (contested) science of a television news report about recent research into mobile phone health risks. The aim of the study was to examine these young people’s ‘accounts of scientific knowledge’ in this context. Seven groups of friends responded to the news report, initially in focus group discussions. Later in semi-structured interviews they elaborated their understanding of the nature of science through their explanations of the scientists’ disagreement and described their mobile phone safety risk assessments. This paper presents their accounts in terms of their views of the nature of science and their concept understanding. Discussions were audio-recorded then analysed by coding the talk in terms of issues raised, which were grouped into themes and interpreted in terms of a moderate social constructionist theoretical framing. In this context, most participants expressed a ‘common sense’ view of the nature of science, describing it as an atheoretical, technical procedure of scientists testing their personal opinions on the issue, subject to the influence of funding sponsors. The roles of theory and data interpretation were largely ignored. It is argued that the nature of science understanding is crucial to engagement with contemporary socioscientific issues, particularly the roles of argumentation, theory, data interpretation, and the distinction of science from common sense. Implications for school science relate primarily to nature of science teaching and the inclusion of socioscientific issues in school science curricula. Future research directions are considered.

Multi-criteria ranking and source apportionment of airborne particulate matter

Particulate matter research is essential because of the well known significant adverse effects of aerosol particles on human health and the environment. In particular, identification of the origin or sources of particulate matter emissions is of paramount importance in assisting efforts to control and reduce air pollution in the atmosphere. This thesis aims to: identify the sources of particulate matter; compare pollution conditions at urban, rural and roadside receptor sites; combine information about the sources with meteorological conditions at the sites to locate the emission sources; compare sources based on particle size or mass; and ultimately, provide the basis for control and reduction in particulate matter concentrations in the atmosphere. To achieve these objectives, data was obtained from assorted local and international receptor sites over long sampling periods. The samples were analysed using Ion Beam Analysis and Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer methods to measure the particle mass with chemical composition and the particle size distribution, respectively. Advanced data analysis techniques were employed to derive information from large, complex data sets. Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), a ranking method, drew on data variability to examine the overall trends, and provided the rank ordering of the sites and years that sampling was conducted. Coupled with the receptor model Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF), the pollution emission sources were identified and meaningful information pertinent to the prioritisation of control and reduction strategies was obtained. This thesis is presented in the thesis by publication format. It includes four refereed papers which together demonstrate a novel combination of data analysis techniques that enabled particulate matter sources to be identified and sampling site/year ranked. The strength of this source identification process was corroborated when the analysis procedure was expanded to encompass multiple receptor sites. Initially applied to identify the contributing sources at roadside and suburban sites in Brisbane, the technique was subsequently applied to three receptor sites (roadside, urban and rural) located in Hong Kong. The comparable results from these international and national sites over several sampling periods indicated similarities in source contributions between receptor site-types, irrespective of global location and suggested the need to apply these methods to air pollution investigations worldwide. Furthermore, an investigation into particle size distribution data was conducted to deduce the sources of aerosol emissions based on particle size and elemental composition. Considering the adverse effects on human health caused by small-sized particles, knowledge of particle size distribution and their elemental composition provides a different perspective on the pollution problem. This thesis clearly illustrates that the application of an innovative combination of advanced data interpretation methods to identify particulate matter sources and rank sampling sites/years provides the basis for the prioritisation of future air pollution control measures. Moreover, this study contributes significantly to knowledge based on chemical composition of airborne particulate matter in Brisbane, Australia and on the identity and plausible locations of the contributing sources. Such novel source apportionment and ranking procedures are ultimately applicable to environmental investigations worldwide.

The effects of rurality on mental and physical health

The effects of rurality on physical and mental health are examined in analyses of a national dataset, the Community Tracking Survey, 2000-2001, that includes individual level observations from household interviews. We merge it with county level data reflecting community resources and use econometric methods to analyze this multi-level data. The statistical analysis of the impact of the choice of definition on outcomes and on the estimates and significance of explanatory variables in the model is presented using modern econometric methods, and differences in results for mental health and physical health are evaluated. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.