Food crops in a changing climate

Changes in both the mean and the variability of climate, whether naturally forced, or due to human activities, pose a threat to crop production globally. This paper summarizes discussions of this issue at a meeting of the Royal Society in April 2005. Recent advances in understanding the sensitivity of crops to weather, climate and the levels of particular gases in the atmosphere indicate that the impact of these factors on crop yields and quality may be more severe than previously thought. There is increasing information on the importance to crop yields of extremes of temperature and rainfall at key stages of crop development. Agriculture will itself impact on the climate system and a greater understanding of these feedbacks is needed. Complex models are required to perform simulations of climate variability and change, together with predictions of how crops will respond to different climate variables. Variability of climate, such as that associated with El Niño events, has large impacts on crop production. If skilful predictions of the probability of such events occurring can be made a season or more in advance, then agricultural and other societal responses can be made. The development of strategies to adapt to variations in the current climate may also build resilience to changes in future climate. Africa will be the part of the world that is most vulnerable to climate variability and change, but knowledge of how to use climate information and the regional impacts of climate variability and change in Africa is rudimentary. In order to develop appropriate adaptation strategies globally, predictions about changes in the quantity and quality of food crops need to be considered in the context of the entire food chain from production to distribution, access and utilization. Recommendations for future research priorities are given.

An evaluation of the costs of making specific secondary metabolites: does the yield penalty incurred by host plant resistance to insects due to competition for resources?

The presumption that the synthesis of 'defence' compounds in plants must incur some 'trade-off' or penalty in terms of annual crop yields has been used to explain observed inverse correlations between resistance to herbivores and rates of growth or photosynthesis. An analysis of the cost of making secondary compounds suggests that this accounts for only a small part of the overall carbon budget of annual crop plants. Even the highest reported amounts of secondary metabolites found in different crop species (flavonoids, allylisothiocyanates, hydroxamic acids, 2-tridecanone) represent a carbon demand that can be satisfied by less than an hour's photosynthesis. Similar considerations apply to secondary compounds containing nitrogen or sulphur, which are unlikely to represent a major investment compared to the cost of making proteins, the major demand for these elements. Decreases in growth and photosynthesis in response to stress are more likely the result of programmed down-regulation. Observed correlations between yield and low contents of unpalatable or toxic compounds may be the result of parallel selection during the refinement of crop species by humans.

Pollination services in the UK: how important are honeybees?

Pollination services are known to provide substantial benefits to human populations and agriculture in particular. Although many species are known to provide pollination services, honeybees (Apis mellifera) are often assumed to provide the majority of these services to agriculture. Using data from a range of secondary sources, this study assesses the importance of insect pollinated crops at regional and national scales and investigates the capacity of honeybees to provide optimal pollination services to UK agriculture. The findings indicate that insect pollinated crops have become increasingly important in UK crop agriculture and, as of 2007, accounted for 20% of UK cropland and 19% of total farmgate crop value. Analysis of honeybee hive numbers indicates that current UK populations are only capable of supplying 34% of pollination service demands even under favourable assumptions, falling from 70% in 1984. In spite of this decline, insect pollinated crop yields have risen by an average of 54% since 1984, casting doubt on long held beliefs that honeybees provide the majority of pollination services. Future land use and crop production patterns may further increase the role of pollination services to UK agriculture, highlighting the importance of measures aimed at maintaining both wild and managed species.

Reaping the benefits: science and the sustainable intensification of global agriculture

Food security is one of this century’s key global challenges. By 2050 the world will require increased crop production in order to feed its predicted 9 billion people. This must be done in the face of changing consumption patterns, the impacts of climate change and the growing scarcity of water and land. Crop production methods will also have to sustain the environment, preserve natural resources and support livelihoods of farmers and rural populations around the world. There is a pressing need for the ‘sustainable intensifi cation’ of global agriculture in which yields are increased without adverse environmental impact and without the cultivation of more land. Addressing the need to secure a food supply for the whole world requires an urgent international effort with a clear sense of long-term challenges and possibilities. Biological science, especially publicly funded science, must play a vital role in the sustainable intensifi cation of food crop production. The UK has a responsibility and the capacity to take a leading role in providing a range of scientifi c solutions to mitigate potential food shortages. This will require signifi cant funding of cross-disciplinary science for food security. The constraints on food crop production are well understood, but differ widely across regions. The availability of water and good soils are major limiting factors. Signifi cant losses in crop yields occur due to pests, diseases and weed competition. The effects of climate change will further exacerbate the stresses on crop plants, potentially leading to dramatic yield reductions. Maintaining and enhancing the diversity of crop genetic resources is vital to facilitate crop breeding and thereby enhance the resilience of food crop production. Addressing these constraints requires technologies and approaches that are underpinned by good science. Some of these technologies build on existing knowledge, while others are completely radical approaches, drawing on genomics and high-throughput analysis. Novel research methods have the potential to contribute to food crop production through both genetic improvement of crops and new crop and soil management practices. Genetic improvements to crops can occur through breeding or genetic modifi cation to introduce a range of desirable traits. The application of genetic methods has the potential to refi ne existing crops and provide incremental improvements. These methods also have the potential to introduce radical and highly signifi cant improvements to crops by increasing photosynthetic effi ciency, reducing the need for nitrogen or other fertilisers and unlocking some of the unrealised potential of crop genomes. The science of crop management and agricultural practice also needs to be given particular emphasis as part of a food security grand challenge. These approaches can address key constraints in existing crop varieties and can be applied widely. Current approaches to maximising production within agricultural systems are unsustainable; new methodologies that utilise all elements of the agricultural system are needed, including better soil management and enhancement and exploitation of populations of benefi cial soil microbes. Agronomy, soil science and agroecology—the relevant sciences—have been neglected in recent years. Past debates about the use of new technologies for agriculture have tended to adopt an either/or approach, emphasising the merits of particular agricultural systems or technological approaches and the downsides of others. This has been seen most obviously with respect to genetically modifi ed (GM) crops, the use of pesticides and the arguments for and against organic modes of production. These debates have failed to acknowledge that there is no technological panacea for the global challenge of sustainable and secure global food production. There will always be trade-offs and local complexities. This report considers both new crop varieties and appropriate agroecological crop and soil management practices and adopts an inclusive approach. No techniques or technologies should be ruled out. Global agriculture demands a diversity of approaches, specific to crops, localities, cultures and other circumstances. Such diversity demands that the breadth of relevant scientific enquiry is equally diverse, and that science needs to be combined with social, economic and political perspectives. In addition to supporting high-quality science, the UK needs to maintain and build its capacity to innovate, in collaboration with international and national research centres. UK scientists and agronomists have in the past played a leading role in disciplines relevant to agriculture, but training in agricultural sciences and related topics has recently suffered from a lack of policy attention and support. Agricultural extension services, connecting farmers with new innovations, have been similarly neglected in the UK and elsewhere. There is a major need to review the support for and provision of extension services, particularly in developing countries. The governance of innovation for agriculture needs to maximise opportunities for increasing production, while at the same time protecting societies, economies and the environment from negative side effects. Regulatory systems need to improve their assessment of benefits. Horizon scanning will ensure proactive consideration of technological options by governments. Assessment of benefi ts, risks and uncertainties should be seen broadly, and should include the wider impacts of new technologies and practices on economies and societies. Public and stakeholder dialogue—with NGOs, scientists and farmers in particular—needs to be a part of all governance frameworks.

Agriculture: wheat crops feel the heat

Extreme heat can accelerate wheat aging — an effect that reduces crop yields and is underestimated in most crop models. Climate warming may, therefore, present even greater challenges to wheat production than current models predict.

Tillage and herbicide treatments with inter-row cultivation influence weed densities and yield of three industrial crops

Field experiments were conducted in northern Greece in 2003 and 2004 to evaluate effects of tillage regimes (moldboard plowing, chisel plowing, and rotary tilling), cropping sequences(continuous cotton, cotton-sugar beet rotation,and continuous tobacco) and herbicide treatments with inter-row hand hoeing on weed population densities. Total weed densities were not affected by tillage treatment except that of barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli), which increased only in moldboard plowing treated plots during 2003. Redroot pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus)and black nightshade (Solanum nigrum) densities were reduced in continuous cotton, while purple nutsedge (Cyperus rotundus), E. crus-galli, S. nigrum, and johnsongras(Sorghum halepense) densities were reduced in tobacco. A. retroflexus and S. nigrum were effectively controlled by all herbicide treatments with inter-row hand hoeing,whereas E. crus-galli was effectively reduced by herbicides applied to cotton and tobacco. S. halepense density reduction was a result of herbicide applied to tobacco with inter-row hand hoeing. Yield of all crops was higher under moldboard plowing and herbicide treatments. Pre-sowing and pre-emergence herbicide treatments in cotton and pre-transplant in tobacco integrated with inter-row cultivation resulted in efficient control of annual weed species and good crop yields. These observations are of practical relevance to crop selection by farmers in order to maintain weed populations at economically acceptable densities through the integration of various planting dates, sustainable herbicide use and inter-row cultivation; tools of great importance in integrated weed management systems. Keywords: cropping sequence, herbicide, integrated weed management, inter-row cultivation,tillage.

Soils and food security: challenges and opportunities

Soils most obviously contribute to food security in their essential role in crop and fodder production, so affecting the local availability of particular foods. They also have a direct influence on the ability to distribute food, the nutritional value of some foods and, in some societies, the access to certain foods through local processes of allocation and preferences. The inherent fertility of some soils is greater than that of others, so that crop yields vary greatly under semi-natural conditions. Husbandry practices, including the use of manures and fertilisers, have evolved to improve biological, chemical and physical components of soil fertility and thereby increase crop production. The challenge for the future is to sustain soil fertility in ways that increase the yield per unit area while simultaneously avoiding other detrimental environmental consequences. This will require increased effort to develop practices that use inputs such as nutrients, water and energy more efficiently. Opportunities to achieve this include adopting more effective ways to apply water and nutrients, adopting tillage practices that promote water infiltration and increase of organic matter, and breeding to improve the effectiveness of root systems in utilising soil-based resources.

Wild pollinators enhance fruit set of crops regardless of honey bee abundance

Diversity and abundance of wild-insect pollinators have declined in many agricultural landscapes. Whether such declines reduce crop yields, or are mitigated by managed pollinators such as honey bees, is unclear. Here, we show universally positive associations of fruit set with wild-insect visits to flowers in 41 crop systems worldwide, and thus clearly demonstrate their agricultural value. In contrast, fruit set increased significantly with visitation by honey bees in only 14% of the systems surveyed. Overall, wild insects pollinated crops more effectively, because increase in their visitation enhanced fruit set by twice as much as an equivalent increase in honey bee visitation. Further, visitation by wild insects and honey bees promoted fruit set independently, so high abundance of managed honey bees supplemented, rather than substituted for, pollination by wild insects. Our results suggest that new practices for integrated management of both honey bees and diverse wild-insect assemblages will enhance global crop yields.

Climate change and the current 'food crisis'

Many reasons are being advanced for the current ‘food crisis’ including financial speculation,increased demand for grains, export bans on selected foodstuffs, inadequate grain stocks, higher oil prices, poor harvests and the use of crop lands for the production of biofuels. This paper reviews the present knowledge of recorded impacts of climate change and variability on crop production, in order to estimate its contribution to the current situation. Many studies demonstrate increased regional temperatures over the last 40 years (often through greater increases in minimum rather than maximum temperatures), but effects on crop yields are mixed. Distinguishing climate effects from changes in yield resulting from improved crop management and genotypes is difficult, but phenological changes affecting sowing, maturity and disease incidence are emerging. Anthropogenic factors appear to be a significant contributory factor to the observed decline in rainfall in southwestern and southeastern Australia, which reduced tradable wheat grain during 2007. Indirect effects of climate change through actions to mitigate or adapt to anticipated changes in climate are also evident. The amount of land diverted from crop production to biofuel production is small but has had a disproportionate effect on tradable grains from the USA. Adaptation of crop production practices and other components of the food system contributing to food security in response to variable and changing climates have occurred, but those households without adequate livelihoods are most in danger of becoming food insecure. Overall, we conclude that changing climate is a small contributor to the current food crisis but cannot be ignored.

Gene expression changes in phosphorus deficient potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) leaves and the potential for diagnostic gene expression markers

Background: There are compelling economic and environmental reasons to reduce our reliance on inorganic phosphate (Pi) fertilisers. Better management of Pi fertiliser applications is one option to improve the efficiency of Pi fertiliser use, whilst maintaining crop yields. Application rates of Pi fertilisers are traditionally determined from analyses of soil or plant tissues. Alternatively, diagnostic genes with altered expression under Pi limiting conditions that suggest a physiological requirement for Pi fertilisation, could be used to manage Pifertiliser applications, and might be more precise than indirect measurements of soil or tissue samples. Results: We grew potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) plants hydroponically, under glasshouse conditions, to control their nutrient status accurately. Samples of total leaf RNA taken periodically after Pi was removed from the nutrient solution were labelled and hybridised to potato oligonucleotide arrays. A total of 1,659 genes were significantly differentially expressed following Pi withdrawal. These included genes that encode proteins involved in lipid, protein, and carbohydrate metabolism, characteristic of Pi deficient leaves and included potential novel roles for genes encoding patatin like proteins in potatoes. The array data were analysed using a support vector machine algorithm to identify groups of genes that could predict the Pi status of the crop. These groups of diagnostic genes were tested using field grown potatoes that had either been fertilised or unfertilised. A group of 200 genes could correctly predict the Pi status of field grown potatoes. Conclusions: This paper provides a proof-of-concept demonstration for using microarrays and class prediction tools to predict the Pi status of a field grown potato crop. There is potential to develop this technology for other biotic and abiotic stresses in field grown crops. Ultimately, a better understanding of crop stresses may improve our management of the crop, improving the sustainability of agriculture.

Effects of planting density and nitrogen application on seed yield and other morphological traits of the leafy vegetable kale (Brassica oleracea).

The relationship between food security and sustainable land use is considered to be of the uttermost importance to increase yields without having to increase the agricultural land area over which crops are grown. In the present study nitrogen concentration (25 and 85 kg ha-1) and planting density (6.7, 10 and 25 plants m-2) were investigated for their effect on whole plant physiology and pod seed yield in kale (Brassica oleracea), to determine if the fruit (pod) yield could be manipulated agronomically. Nitrogen concentration did not significantly affect seed yield and it is therefore recommended that the lower concentration be used commercially. Conversely planting density did have a significant effect with increases in seed yield observed at the highest planting density of 25 plants m-2, therefore this high planting density would be recommended commercially to maximise area efficiency, highlighting that simple agronomic changes are capable of increasing crop yields over a set area.

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealised, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all three models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation and run-off. Changes in precipitation and run-off patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ, consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker forcing signal, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

Climate change modelling and its roles to chinese crops yield

Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model (GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change (at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct) appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out

Modelling the medieval economy: money, prices and income in England, 1263-1520

This chapter presents a simple econometric model of the medieval English economy, focusing on the relationship between money, prices and incomes. The model is estimated using annual data for the period 1263-1520 obtained from various sources. The start date is determined by the availability of continuous runs of annual data, while the finishing date immediately precedes the take-off of Tudor price inflation. Accounts from the ecclesiastical and monastic estates have survived in great numbers for this period, thereby ensuring that crop yields can be estimated from a regionally representative set of estates.

A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia

The Middle East and Southwest Asia comprise a region that is water-stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts. Large-scale climate variability, particularly La Niña, appears to play an important role in region-wide drought, including the two most severe of the last fifty years—1999-2001 and 2007-2008—with implications for drought forecasting. Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism. In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt. Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate. There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including: dynamics of the regional storm track, the relative importance of the range of dynamical mechanisms related to drought, regional coherence of drought, the relationship between synoptic-scale mechanisms and drought, predictability of vegetation and crop yields, stability of remote influences, data uncertainty, and the role of temperature. Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information.