Image Resilience after Multiple Crises : The Case of Switzerland in the United States

In der heutigen Welt sind die Reputation und das Image eines Landes als wichtige Faktoren für den wirtschaftlichen und politischen Erfolg angesehen. Jedoch ist die Pflege der Marke eines Landes komplex und führt zu zwei Positionen, die sich potentiell widersprechen: Einerseits kann ein positives Erscheinungsbild eines Landes durch aktive Massnahmen gefördert werden. Andererseits ist es schwierig, das Bild eines Landes abzugrenzen und es ist mit Klischees behaftet. Dieser Beitrag analysiert die Auswirkungen von zwei grösseren Krisen auf das Image der Schweiz in den Vereinigten Staaten: die Krise um die nachrichtenlosen Vermögen aus der Zeit des 2. Weltkriegs im Jahr 2000 sowie die Krise um die UBS und das Bankgeheimnis im Jahr 2009. Die Studie zeigt, dass das Erscheinungsbild der Schweiz unberührt blieb, obwohl ein beachtlicher Teil der Bevölkerung und der Meinungsführer von beiden Krisen wusste. Dies stützt die Hypothese, dass das Image eines Landes eine hohe Beständigkeit aufweist. In today's world, country's reputation and image have become key issues, widely believed to be success factors both economically and politically. Nevertheless, managing a country's brand is complex and leads to two positions that are potentially contradictory: On the one hand, a country's image can be influenced either by promotional activities. On the other hand, a country's image is a construct that is very difficult to delimit and is highly stereotyped. This contribution study the impact of two major crises on the image of Switzerland in the United States: the unclaimed wartime deposits crisis in 2000 and the UBS and banking secrecy crisis in 2009. It shows that despite the fact that a substantial proportion of the public and of opinion leaders was aware of both crises, the image of Switzerland was unaffected, which tends to support the hypothesis of strong stability of a country's image.

Managing the crises : how did local governments react to the financial crisis in 2008 and what explains the differences ? The case of Swiss municipalities

Swiss municipalities are, to a large extent, responsible for their financial resources. Since these resources primarily depend on income and property taxes from individuals and enterprises, municipality budgets are likely to be directly affected by the current crisis in the financial sector and the economy. This article investigates how municipalities perceived this threat and how they reacted to it. In a nationwide survey conducted at the end of 2009 in all 2596 Swiss municipalities, we asked local secretaries which measures had been launched in order to cope with expected losses in tax income and a possible increase in welfare spending. Did the municipalities rely on Keynesian measures increasing public spending and accepting greater deficits, or did they try to avoid further deficits by using austerity measures and a withdrawal of planned investments? Our results show that only a few municipalities - mainly the bigger ones - expected to be greatly affected by the crisis. Their reactions, however, did not reveal any clear patterns that theory would lead one to expect. Preferences for austerity measures and deficit spending become visible but many municipalities took measures from both theories. The strongest explanatory factors for determining how/why municipalities react are: the municipality's level of affectedness followed by whether or not the municipality belongs to the French-speaking part of the country. Size also has an impact, whereas the strength of the Social Democrat party is negligible. Explaining what kind of measures municipalities are likely to take is more difficult. However, the more a municipality is affected, the more likely it is to stick to austerity measures.

Sovereigns and banks in the euro area : a tale of two crises

This study attempts to identify and trace inter-linkages between sovereign and banking risk in the euro area. To this end, we use an indicator of banking risk in each country based on the Contingent Claim Analysis literature, and 10-year government yield spreads over Germany as a measure of sovereign risk. We apply a dynamic approach to testing for Granger causality between the two measures of risk in 10 euro area countries, allowing us to check for contagion in the form of a significant and abrupt increase in short-run causal linkages. The empirical results indicate that episodes of contagion vary considerably in both directions over time and within the different EMU countries. Significantly, we find that causal linkages tend to strengthen particularly at the time of major financial crises. The empirical evidence suggests the presence of contagion, mainly from banks to sovereigns.

Winner-Loser Performance and Macroeconomic Effects during three last Economic Crises in Finnish Stock Market

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate winner-loser performance when financial markets are facing crisis. This is examined through the idea that does the prior loser portfolios outperform the prior winner portfolios during the three major crises: The depression of the 1990s, the IT-Bubble and the Subprime -crisis. Firstly, the winner and loser portfolios superiority is counted by using the cumulative excess returns from the examination period. The portfolios were formed by counting the excess returns and locating them in to the order of superiority. The excess returns are counted by using one year pre-data before the actual examination period. The results of this part did not support the results of De Bondt & Thaler’s (1985) paper. Secondly, it is investigated how the Finnish and the US macroeconomic factors are seen to be affecting the stock market valuation in Finnish Stock Markets during economic crises. This is done to explain better the changes in the successes of the winner-loser performance. The crises included different amount of selected macro factors. Two latest crises involved as well few selected US macro factors. Exclusively the IT-Bubble -crisis had the most statistically significant results with the US factors. Two other crises did not receive statistically significant results. An extra research was produced to study do the US macro factors impact more significantly on Finnish stock exchange after lags. The selected lags were three, six, nine and twelve months. Three and six month lagged US macro factors during the IT-Bubble -crisis improved the results. The extra research did not improve the results of the Subprime -crisis.

National exchange rate policies and international debt crises: how Brazil did not follow Argentina into a default in 2001-2002

This paper examines how exchange rate policies and IMF Stand-By Arrangements affect debt crises using econometrics and a comparison between Argentina and Brazil. It refines an existing diagram outlining crisis development to propose crisis prevention strategies. Flexible exchange rate policies reduce a country's probability of default by over 4%, but Stand-By Arrangements increase it by an inconsequential percentage. Unlike Argentina, Brazil avoided a default via a freely-floating exchange rate system, fiscal deficit reduction, and a cooperative and coordinated relationship with the IMF. The results provide policymakers from developing countries with lessons to manage their countries' default risks more effectively.

Fatores comuns determinantes de crises cambiais e financeiras

Determinative common factors of currency and financial crisis. This paper identifies and evaluates determinative common factors of currency and financial crisis in relation to 86 crises episodes between 1970-2004, based on factor analysis, cluster and discriminant analysis. One evidenced that the rise of the ratios of domestic credit, fiscal deficit and residents bank deposits to the GDP is inherent to the different types of crises classified for economic literature. It was also identified as common factors to these episodes some indicators that capture the excessive monetary expansion of the economies and that reflect the fall in international reserves, represented by M2/Reserves and Imports/Reserves ratios and also the total volume of international reserves.

Finance-Led Growth Regime no Brasil: estatuto teórico, evidências empíricas e consequências macroeconômicas

This paper analyzes the Brazilian growth pattern during the post-liberalization period, emphasizing the structural links between finance and productive capital accumulation. The results indicate a finance-led growth regime in the period 2004-2008, under a very specific financialization process. The first part is a survey of the international literature, which defines the financialization concept and its relevance for understanding Brazilian economic problems. The next part provides a historical overview on the structural changes that made possible the development of financial-led regimes. The paper also applies an empirical analysis of some selected Brazilian macroeconomic indicators.