Survival analysis: a tool in the study of post-harvest diseases in peaches

Survival analysis is applied when the time until the occurrence of an event is of interest. Such data are routinely collected in plant diseases, although applications of the method are uncommon. The objective of this study was to use two studies on post-harvest diseases of peaches, considering two harvests together and the existence of random effect shared by fruits of a same tree, in order to describe the main techniques in survival analysis. The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test and the semi-parametric Cox's proportional hazards model were used to estimate the effect of cultivars and the number of days after full bloom on the survival to the brown rot symptom and the instantaneous risk of expressing it in two consecutive harvests. The joint analysis with baseline effect, varying between harvests, and the confirmation of the tree effect as a grouping factor with random effect were appropriate to interpret the phenomenon (disease) evaluated and can be important tools to replace or complement the conventional analysis, respecting the nature of the variable and the phenomenon.

Neonatal mortality in intensive care units of Central Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify potential prognostic factors for neonatal mortality among newborns referred to intensive care units. METHODS: A live-birth cohort study was carried out in Goiânia, Central Brazil, from November 1999 to October 2000. Linked birth and infant death certificates were used to ascertain the cohort of live born infants. An additional active surveillance system of neonatal-based mortality was implemented. Exposure variables were collected from birth and death certificates. The outcome was survivors (n=713) and deaths (n=162) in all intensive care units in the study period. Cox's proportional hazards model was applied and a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to compare the performance of statistically significant variables in the multivariable model. Adjusted mortality rates by birth weight and 5-min Apgar score were calculated for each intensive care unit. RESULTS: Low birth weight and 5-min Apgar score remained independently associated to death. Birth weight equal to 2,500g had 0.71 accuracy (95% CI: 0.65-0.77) for predicting neonatal death (sensitivity =72.2%). A wide variation in the mortality rates was found among intensive care units (9.5-48.1%) and two of them remained with significant high mortality rates even after adjusting for birth weight and 5-min Apgar score. CONCLUSIONS: This study corroborates birth weight as a sensitive screening variable in surveillance programs for neonatal death and also to target intensive care units with high mortality rates for implementing preventive actions and interventions during the delivery period.

Predictive factors of in-hospital mortality and of severe perioperative complications in myocardial revascularization surgery

OBJECTIVE: To investigate preoperative predictive factors of severe perioperative intercurrent events and in-hospital mortality in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and to develop specific models of risk prediction for these events, mainly those that can undergo changes in the preoperative period. METHODS: We prospectively studied 453 patients who had undergone CABG. Factors independently associated with the events of interest were determined with multiple logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 11.3% (51/453), and 21.2% of the patients had 1 or more perioperative intercurrent events. In the final model, the following variables remained associated with the risk of intercurrent events: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS (Sistema Único de Saúde - the Brazilian public health system), cardiogenic shock, ischemia, and dependence on dialysis. Using multiple logistic regression for in-hospital mortality, the following variables participated in the model of risk prediction: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS, diabetes, renal dysfunction, and cardiogenic shock. According to the Cox regression model for death within the 7 days following surgery, the following variables remained associated with mortality: age ³ 70 years, female sex, cardiogenic shock, and hospitalization via SUS. CONCLUSION: The aspects linked to the structure of the Brazilian health system, such as factors of great impact on the results obtained, indicate that the events investigated also depend on factors that do not relate to the patient's intrinsic condition.

Inflammatory Markers and Incident Heart Failure Risk in Older Adults: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Background: Inflammation is associated with heart failure (HF) risk factors and also directly affects myocardial function. However, the association between inflammation and HF risk in older adults has not been adequately evaluated. Methods: The association of baseline serum concentrations of interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF- ), and C-reactive protein (CRP) with incident HF was assessed with Cox proportional hazards models among 2610 older persons without prevalent HF enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study (age, 73.6±2.9 years; 48.3% men; 59.6% white). Results: Median (interquartile range) baseline concentrations of IL-6, TNF- , and CRP were 1.80 (1.23, 2.76) pg/mL, 3.14 (2.41, 4.06) pg/mL, and 1.64 (0.99, 3.04) µg/mL, respectively. On follow-up (median, 9.4 years), 311 participants (11.9%) developed HF. In models controlling for clinical predictors of HF and incident coronary heart disease, doubling of IL-6, TNF- , and CRP concentrations was associated with 34% (95% CI, 18 -52%; P<.001), 33% (95% CI, 9 - 63%; P=.006), and 13% (95% CI, 3-24%; P=.01) increase in HF risk, respectively. In models including all 3 markers, IL-6 and TNF- , but not CRP, remained significant. Findings were similar across sex and race. Post-HF ejection fraction (EF) was available in 239 (76.8%) cases. When only cases with preserved EF were considered (n=105), IL-6 (HR per doubling, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.28 -1.94; P<.001), TNF- (HR per doubling, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.12-2.26; P=.01), and CRP (HR per doubling, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.05-1.44; P=.01) were all associated with HF risk in adjusted models. In contrast, when only cases with reduced EF (n=134) were considered, only IL-6 attained marginal significance in adjusted models (HR per doubling, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.99 -1.46; P=.06). Participants with 2 or 3 markers above median had pronounced HF risk in adjusted models (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.12-2.46; P=.01; and HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.16 -2.65; P=.007, respectively). Addition of IL-6 to the clinical Health ABC HF model improved discrimination (C index from 0.717 to 0.734; P=.001) and fit (decreased Bayes information criterion by 17.8; P<.001). Conclusions: Inflammatory markers are associated with HF risk among older adults and may improve HF risk stratification.

The prognostic value of health-related quality-of-life data in predicting survival in glioblastoma cancer patients: results from an international randomised phase III EORTC Brain Tumour and Radiation Oncology Groups, and NCIC Clinical Trials Group study.

This is one of the few studies that have explored the value of baseline symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in predicting survival in brain cancer patients. Baseline HRQOL scores (from the EORTC QLQ-C30 and the Brain Cancer Module (BN 20)) were examined in 490 newly diagnosed glioblastoma cancer patients for the relationship with overall survival by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Refined techniques as the bootstrap re-sampling procedure and the computation of C-indexes and R(2)-coefficients were used to try and validate the model. Classical analysis controlled for major clinical prognostic factors selected cognitive functioning (P=0.0001), global health status (P=0.0055) and social functioning (P<0.0001) as statistically significant prognostic factors of survival. However, several issues question the validity of these findings. C-indexes and R(2)-coefficients, which are measures of the predictive ability of the models, did not exhibit major improvements when adding selected or all HRQOL scores to clinical factors. While classical techniques lead to positive results, more refined analyses suggest that baseline HRQOL scores add relatively little to clinical factors to predict survival. These results may have implications for future use of HRQOL as a prognostic factor in cancer patients.

Incremental Prognostic Value of Myocardial Blood Flow Quantification with Rb-82 Cardiac PET in Patients With Known or Suspected CAD

Rb-82cardiac PET has been used to non-invasively assess myocardial blood flow (MBF)and myocardial flow reserve (MFR). The impact of MBF and MFR for predictingmajor adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) has not been investigated in aprospective study, which was our aim. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In total, 280patients (65±10y, 36% women) with known or suspected CAD were prospectivelyenrolled. They all underwent both a rest and adenosine stress Rb-82 cardiacPET/CT. Dynamic acquisitions were processed with the FlowQuant 2.1.3 softwareand analyzed semi-quantitatively (SSS, SDS) and quantitatively (MBF, MFR) andreported using the 17-segment AHA model. Patients were stratified based on SDS,stress MBF and MFR and allocated into tertiles. For each group, annualizedevent rates were computed by dividing the number of annualized MACE (cardiacdeath, myocardial infarction, revascularisation or hospitalisation forcardiac-related event) by the sum of individual follow-up periods in years.Outcome were analysed for each group using Kaplan-Meier event-free survivalcurves and compared using the log-rank test. Multivariate analysis wasperformed in a stepwise fashion using Cox proportional hazards regressionmodels (p<0.05 for model inclusion). RESULTS: In a median follow-up of 256days (range 168-440d), 44 MACE were observed. Ischemia (SDS≥2) was observed in95 patients who had higher annualized MACE rate as compared to those without(55% vs. 9.8%, p<0.0001). The group with the lowest MFR tertile (MFR<1.76)had higher MACE rate than the two highest tertiles (51% vs. 9% and 14%,p<0.0001). Similarly, the group with the lowest stress MBF tertile(MBF<1.78mL/min/g) had the highest annualized MACE rate (41% vs. 26% and 6%,p=0.0002). On multivariate analysis, the addition of MFR or stress MBF to SDSsignificantly increased the global χ2 (from 56 to 60, p=0.04; and from56 to 63, p=0.01). The best prognostic power was obtained in a model combiningSDS (p<0.001) and stress MBF (p=0.01). Interestingly, the integration ofstress MBF enhanced risk stratification even in absence of ischemia.CONCLUSIONS: Quantification of MBF or MFR in Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT providesindependent and incremental prognostic information over semi-quantitativeassessment with SDS and is of value for risk stratification.

Clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement for knee osteoarthritis: results from a large, 3-year, prospective EULAR study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement surgery across Europe in primary osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of a painful OA knee cohort (from a EULAR-sponsored, multicentre study). All subjects had clinical evaluation, radiographs and ultrasonography (US) at study entry. The rate of knee replacement surgery over the 3-year follow-up period was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival data analyses. Predictive factors for joint replacement were identified by univariate log-rank test then multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Potential baseline predictors included demographic, clinical, radiographic and US features. RESULTS: Of the 600 original patients, 531 (88.5%), mean age 67+/-10 years, mean disease duration 6.1+/-6.9 years, had follow-up data and were analysed. During follow-up (median 3 years; range 0-4 years), knee replacement was done or required for 94 patients (estimated event rate of 17.7%). In the multivariate analysis, predictors of joint replacement were as follows: Kellgren and Lawrence radiographic grade (grade &gt; or =III vs &lt;III, hazards ratio (HR) = 4.08 (95% CI 2.34 to 7.12), p&lt;0.0001); ultrasonographic knee effusion (&gt; or =4 mm vs &lt;4 mm) (HR = 2.63 (95% CI 1.70 to 4.06), p&lt;0.0001); knee pain intensity on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale (&gt; or =60 vs &lt;60) (HR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.83), p=0.01) and disease duration (&gt; or =5 years vs &lt;5 years) (HR=1.63 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.47), p=0.02). Clinically detected effusion and US synovitis were not associated with joint replacement in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal evaluation of this OA cohort demonstrated significant progression to joint replacement. In addition to severity of radiographic damage and pain, US-detected effusion was a predictor of subsequent joint replacement.

Low income, community poverty and risk of end stage renal disease

BACKGROUND: The risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD) is increased among individuals with low income and in low income communities. However, few studies have examined the relation of both individual and community socioeconomic status (SES) with incident ESRD. METHODS: Among 23,314 U.S. adults in the population-based Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study, we assessed participant differences across geospatially-linked categories of county poverty [outlier poverty, extremely high poverty, very high poverty, high poverty, neither (reference), high affluence and outlier affluence]. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations of annual household income and geospatially-linked county poverty measures with incident ESRD, while accounting for death as a competing event using the Fine and Gray method. RESULTS: There were 158 ESRD cases during follow-up. Incident ESRD rates were 178.8 per 100,000 person-years (105 py) in high poverty outlier counties and were 76.3 /105 py in affluent outlier counties, p trend = 0.06. In unadjusted competing risk models, persons residing in high poverty outlier counties had higher incidence of ESRD (which was not statistically significant) when compared to those persons residing in counties with neither high poverty nor affluence [hazard ratio (HR) 1.54, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.75-3.20]. This association was markedly attenuated following adjustment for socio-demographic factors (age, sex, race, education, and income); HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.46-2.00. However, in the same adjusted model, income was independently associated with risk of ESRD [HR 3.75, 95% CI 1.62-8.64, comparing the < $20,000 income group to the > $75,000 group]. There were no statistically significant associations of county measures of poverty with incident ESRD, and no evidence of effect modification. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to annual family income, geospatially-linked measures of county poverty have little relation with risk of ESRD. Efforts to mitigate socioeconomic disparities in kidney disease may be best appropriated at the individual level.

Pretherapeutic gamma-glutamyltransferase is an independent prognostic factor for patients with renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) regulates apoptotic balance and promotes cancer progression and invasion. Higher pretherapeutic GGT serum levels have been associated with worse outcomes in various malignancies, but there are no data for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). METHODS: Pretherapeutic GGT serum levels and clinicopathological parameters were retrospectively evaluated in 921 consecutive RCC patients treated with nephrectomy at a single institution between 1998 and 2013. Gamma-glutamyltransferase was analysed as continuous and categorical variable. Associations with RCC-specific survival were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models. Discrimination was measured with the C-index. Decision-curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical net benefit. The median postoperative follow-up was 45 months. RESULTS: Median pretherapeutic serum GGT level was 25 U l(-1). Gamma-glutamyltransferase levels increased with advancing T (P<0.001), N (P=0.006) and M stages (P<0.001), higher grades (P<0.001), and presence of tumour necrosis (P<0.001). An increase of GGT by 10 U l(-1) was associated with an increase in the risk of death from RCC by 4% (HR 1.04, P<0.001). Based on recursive partitioning-based survival tree analysis, we defined four prognostic categories of GGT: normal low (<17.5 U l(-1)), normal high (17.5 to <34.5 U l(-1)), elevated (34.5 to <181.5 U l(-1)), and highly elevated (⩾181.5 U l(-1)). In multivariable analyses that adjusted for the effect of standard features, both continuously and categorically coded GGT were independent prognostic factors. Adding GGT to a model that included standard features increased the discrimination by 0.9% to 1.8% and improved the clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Pretherapeutic serum GGT is a novel and independent prognostic factor for patients with RCC. Stratifying patients into prognostic subgroups according to GGT may be used for patient counselling, tailoring surveillance, individualised treatment planning, and clinical trial design.

Detection of HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral treatment and clinical progression in a large European cohort study.

OBJECTIVE(S): To investigate the relationship between detection of HIV drug resistance by 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy and the subsequent risk of progression to AIDS and death. DESIGN: Virological failure was defined as experiencing two consecutive viral loads of more than 400 copies/ml in the time window between 0.5 and 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy (baseline). Patients were grouped according to evidence of virological failure and whether there was detection of the International AIDS Society resistance mutations to one, two or three drug classes in the time window. METHODS: Standard survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-fixed covariates defined at baseline was employed. RESULTS: We studied 8229 patients in EuroSIDA who started antiretroviral therapy and who had at least 2 years of clinical follow-up. We observed 829 AIDS events and 571 deaths during 38,814 person-years of follow-up resulting in an overall incidence of new AIDS and death of 3.6 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI):3.4-3.8]. By 96 months from baseline, the proportion of patients with a new AIDS diagnosis or death was 20.3% (95% CI:17.7-22.9) in patients with no evidence of virological failure and 53% (39.3-66.7) in those with virological failure and mutations to three drug classes (P = 0.0001). An almost two-fold difference in risk was confirmed in the multivariable analysis (adjusted relative hazard = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.7, P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Although this study shows an association between the detection of resistance at failure and risk of clinical progression, further research is needed to clarify whether resistance reflects poor adherence or directly increases the risk of clinical events via exhaustion of drug options.

Serum resistin concentrations and risk of new onset heart failure in older persons: the health, aging, and body composition (Health ABC) study.

OBJECTIVE: Resistin is associated with inflammation and insulin resistance and exerts direct effects on myocardial cells including hypertrophy and altered contraction. We investigated the association of serum resistin concentrations with risk for incident heart failure (HF) in humans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 2902 older persons without prevalent HF (age, 73.6+/-2.9 years; 48.1% men; 58.8% white) enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study. Correlation between baseline serum resistin concentrations (20.3+/-10.0 ng/mL) and clinical variables, biochemistry panel, markers of inflammation and insulin resistance, adipocytokines, and measures of adiposity was weak (all rho <0.25). During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 341 participants (11.8%) developed HF. Resistin was strongly associated with risk for incident HF in Cox proportional hazards models controlling for clinical variables, biomarkers, and measures of adiposity (HR, 1.15 per 10.0 ng/mL in adjusted model; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.27; P=0.003). Results were comparable across sex, race, diabetes mellitus, and prevalent and incident coronary heart disease subgroups. In participants with available left ventricular ejection fraction at HF diagnosis (265 of 341; 77.7%), association of resistin with HF risk was comparable for cases with reduced versus preserved ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS: Serum resistin concentrations are independently associated with risk for incident HF in older persons.

Association of major and minor ECG abnormalities with coronary heart disease events.

CONTEXT: In populations of older adults, prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) events through traditional risk factors is less accurate than in middle-aged adults. Electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities are common in older adults and might be of value for CHD prediction. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether baseline ECG abnormalities or development of new and persistent ECG abnormalities are associated with increased CHD events. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A population-based study of 2192 white and black older adults aged 70 to 79 years from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (Health ABC Study) without known cardiovascular disease. Adjudicated CHD events were collected over 8 years between 1997-1998 and 2006-2007. Baseline and 4-year ECG abnormalities were classified according to the Minnesota Code as major and minor. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, the addition of ECG abnormalities to traditional risk factors were examined to predict CHD events. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Adjudicated CHD events (acute myocardial infarction [MI], CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization). RESULTS: At baseline, 276 participants (13%) had minor and 506 (23%) had major ECG abnormalities. During follow-up, 351 participants had CHD events (96 CHD deaths, 101 acute MIs, and 154 hospitalizations for angina or coronary revascularizations). Both baseline minor and major ECG abnormalities were associated with an increased risk of CHD after adjustment for traditional risk factors (17.2 per 1000 person-years among those with no abnormalities; 29.3 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.02-1.81; for minor abnormalities; and 31.6 per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.20-1.90; for major abnormalities). When ECG abnormalities were added to a model containing traditional risk factors alone, 13.6% of intermediate-risk participants with both major and minor ECG abnormalities were correctly reclassified (overall net reclassification improvement [NRI], 7.4%; 95% CI, 3.1%-19.0%; integrated discrimination improvement, 0.99%; 95% CI, 0.32%-2.15%). After 4 years, 208 participants had new and 416 had persistent abnormalities. Both new and persistent ECG abnormalities were associated with an increased risk of subsequent CHD events (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.33-3.02; and HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.18-2.34; respectively). When added to the Framingham Risk Score, the NRI was not significant (5.7%; 95% CI, -0.4% to 11.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Major and minor ECG abnormalities among older adults were associated with an increased risk of CHD events. Depending on the model, adding ECG abnormalities was associated with improved risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors.

Assessing efficacy of different nucleos(t)ide backbones in NNRTI-containing regimens in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The most recommended NRTI combinations as first-line antiretroviral treatment for HIV-1 infection in resource-rich settings are tenofovir/emtricitabine, abacavir/lamivudine, tenofovir/lamivudine and zidovudine/lamivudine. Efficacy studies of these combinations also considering pill numbers, dosing frequencies and ethnicities are rare. METHODS: We included patients starting first-line combination ART (cART) with or switching from first-line cART without treatment failure to tenofovir/emtricitabine, abacavir/lamivudine, tenofovir/lamivudine and zidovudine/lamivudine plus efavirenz or nevirapine. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the effect of the different NRTI combinations on two primary outcomes: virological failure (VF) and emergence of NRTI resistance. Additionally, we performed a pill burden analysis and adjusted the model for pill number and dosing frequency. RESULTS: Failure events per treated patient for the four NRTI combinations were as follows: 19/1858 (tenofovir/emtricitabine), 9/387 (abacavir/lamivudine), 11/344 (tenofovir/lamivudine) and 45/1244 (zidovudine/lamivudine). Compared with tenofovir/emtricitabine, abacavir/lamivudine had an adjusted HR for having VF of 2.01 (95% CI 0.86-4.55), tenofovir/lamivudine 2.89 (1.22-6.88) and zidovudine/lamivudine 2.28 (1.01-5.14), whereas for the emergence of NRTI resistance abacavir/lamivudine had an HR of 1.17 (0.11-12.2), tenofovir/lamivudine 11.3 (2.34-55.3) and zidovudine/lamivudine 4.02 (0.78-20.7). Differences among regimens disappeared when models were additionally adjusted for pill burden. However, non-white patients compared with white patients and higher pill number per day were associated with increased risks of VF and emergence of NRTI resistance: HR of non-white ethnicity for VF was 2.85 (1.64-4.96) and for NRTI resistance 3.54 (1.20-10.4); HR of pill burden for VF was 1.41 (1.01-1.96) and for NRTI resistance 1.72 (0.97-3.02). CONCLUSIONS: Although VF and emergence of resistance was very low in the population studied, tenofovir/emtricitabine appears to be superior to abacavir/lamivudine, tenofovir/lamivudine and zidovudine/lamivudine. However, it is unclear whether these differences are due to the substances as such or to an association of tenofovir/emtricitabine regimens with lower pill burden.

High incidence of adverse reactions to initial antiretroviral therapy in Brazil

A concurrent prospective study was conducted from 2001 to 2003 to assess factors associated with adverse reactions among individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy at two public referral HIV/AIDS centers in Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil. Adverse reactions were obtained from medical charts reviewed up to 12 months after the first antiretroviral prescription. Cox proportional hazard model was used to perform univariate and multivariate analyses. Relative hazards (RH) were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Among 397 charts reviewed, 377 (95.0%) had precise information on adverse reactions and initial antiretroviral treatment. Most patients received triple combination regimens including nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and protease inhibitors. At least one adverse reaction was recorded on 34.5% (N = 130) of the medical charts (0.17 adverse reactions/100 person-day), while nausea (14.5%) and vomiting (13.1%) were the most common ones. Variables independently associated with adverse reactions were: regimens with nevirapine (RH = 1.78; 95% CI = 1.07-2.96), indinavir or indinavir/ritonavir combinations (RH = 2.05; 95% CI = 1.15-3.64), female patients (RH = 1.93; 95% CI = 1.31-2.83), 5 or more outpatient visits (RH = 1.94; 95% CI = 1.25-3.01), non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy (RH = 2.38; 95% CI = 1.62-3.51), and a CD4+ count of 200 to 500 cells/mm³ (RH = 2.66; 95% CI = 1.19-5.90). An independent and negative association was also found for alcohol use (RH = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.33-0.90). Adverse reactions were substantial among participants initiating antiretroviral therapy. Specially elaborated protocols in HIV/AIDS referral centers may improve the diagnosis, management and prevention of adverse reactions, thus contributing to improving adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected patients.

Multiple factor analysis of metachronous upper urinary tract transitional cell carcinoma after radical cystectomy

Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the urothelium is often multifocal and subsequent tumors may occur anywhere in the urinary tract after the treatment of a primary carcinoma. Patients initially presenting a bladder cancer are at significant risk of developing metachronous tumors in the upper urinary tract (UUT). We evaluated the prognostic factors of primary invasive bladder cancer that may predict a metachronous UUT TCC after radical cystectomy. The records of 476 patients who underwent radical cystectomy for primary invasive bladder TCC from 1989 to 2001 were reviewed retrospectively. The prognostic factors of UUT TCC were determined by multivariate analysis using the COX proportional hazards regression model. Kaplan-Meier analysis was also used to assess the variable incidence of UUT TCC according to different risk factors. Twenty-two patients (4.6%). developed metachronous UUT TCC. Multiplicity, prostatic urethral involvement by the bladder cancer and the associated carcinoma in situ (CIS) were significant and independent factors affecting the occurrence of metachronous UUT TCC (P = 0.0425, 0.0082, and 0.0006, respectively). These results were supported, to some extent, by analysis of the UUT TCC disease-free rate by the Kaplan-Meier method, whereby patients with prostatic urethral involvement or with associated CIS demonstrated a significantly lower metachronous UUT TCC disease-free rate than patients without prostatic urethral involvement or without associated CIS (log-rank test, P = 0.0116 and 0.0075, respectively). Multiple tumors, prostatic urethral involvement and associated CIS were risk factors for metachronous UUT TCC, a conclusion that may be useful for designing follow-up strategies for primary invasive bladder cancer after radical cystectomy.