Politicians : Be killed or survive

In the course of history, a large number of politicians have been assassinated. To investigate this phenomenon, rational choice hypotheses are developed and tested using a large data set covering close to 100 countries over a period of 20 years. Several strategies, in addition to security measures, are shown to significantly reduce the probability of politicians being attacked or killed: extended institutional and governance quality, democracy, voice and accountability, a well-functioning system of law and order, decentralization via the division of power and federalism, larger cabinet size and a stronger civil society. There is also support for a contagion effect.

Semi-parametric modelling of ultrafine particle number concentration

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal trends in environmental modelling data requires that measurements be taken at multiple sites. The number of sites and duration of measurement at each site must be balanced against costs of equipment and availability of trained staff. The split panel design comprises short measurement campaigns at multiple locations and continuous monitoring at reference sites [2]. Here we present a modelling approach for a spatio-temporal model of ultrafine particle number concentration (PNC) recorded according to a split panel design. The model describes the temporal trends and background levels at each site. The data were measured as part of the “Ultrafine Particles from Transport Emissions and Child Health” (UPTECH) project which aims to link air quality measurements, child health outcomes and a questionnaire on the child’s history and demographics. The UPTECH project involves measuring aerosol and particle counts and local meteorology at each of 25 primary schools for two weeks and at three long term monitoring stations, and health outcomes for a cohort of students at each school [3].

History behind the IVF egg: Are women's comprehensive histories associated with the number of eggs collected, or fertilised normally, from repeated IVF cycles? [abstract]

Most studies of in vitro fertilisation (IVF) outcomes use cycle-based data and fail to account for women who use repeated IVF cycles. The objective of this study was to examine the association between the number of eggs collected (EC) and the percentage fertilised normally, and women’s self-reported medical, personal and social histories. This study involved a crosssectional survey of infertile women (aged 27-46 years) recruited from four privately-owned fertility clinics located in major cities of Australia. Regression modeling was used to estimate the mean EC and mean percentage of eggs fertilised normally: adjusted for age at EC. Appropriate statistical methods were used to take account of repeated IVF cycles by the same women. Among 121 participants who returned the survey and completed 286 IVF cycles, the mean age at EC was 35.2 years (SD 4.5). Women’s age at EC was strongly associated with the number of EC: <30 years, 11.7 EC; 30.0-< 35 years, 10.6 EC; 35.0-<40.0 years, 7.3 EC; 40.0+ years, 8.1 EC; p<.0001. Prolonged use of oral contraceptives was associated with lower numbers of EC: never used, 14.6 EC; 0-2 years, 11.7 EC; 3-5 years, 8.5 EC; 6þ years, 8.2 EC; p=.04. Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) was associated with more EC: have PCOS, 11.5 EC; no, 8.3 EC; p=.01. Occupational exposures may be detrimental to normal fertilisation: professional roles, 58.8%; trade and service roles, 51.8%; manual and other roles, 63.3%; p=.02. In conclusion, women’s age remains the most significant characteristic associated with EC but not the percentage of eggs fertilised normally.

Spatial variation of particle number concentration in school microscale environment

There is significant toxicological evidence of the effects of ultrafine particles (<100nm) on human health (WHO 2005). Studies show that the number concentration of particles has been associated with adverse human health effects (Englert 2004). This work is part of a major study called ‘Ultrafine Particles form Traffic Emissions and Children’s Health’ (UPTECH), which seeks to determine the effect of the exposure to traffic related ultrafine particles on children’s health in schools (http://www.ilaqh.qut.edu.au/Misc/UPT ECH%20Home.htm). Quantification of spatial variation of particle number concentration (PNC) in a microscale environment and identification of the main affecting parameters and their contribution levels are the main aims of this analysis.

Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a method which aims to provide a quantitative indicator of progression of diseases that lead to loss of motor units, such as motor neurone disease. However the development of a reliable, repeatable and fast real-time MUNE method has proved elusive hitherto. Ridall et al. (2007) implement a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to produce a posterior distribution for the number of motor units using a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account biological information about motor unit activation. However we find that the approach can be unreliable for some datasets since it can suffer from poor cross-dimensional mixing. Here we focus on improved inference by marginalising over latent variables to create the likelihood. In particular we explore how this can improve the RJMCMC mixing and investigate alternative approaches that utilise the likelihood (e.g. DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002)). For this model the marginalisation is over latent variables which, for a larger number of motor units, is an intractable summation over all combinations of a set of latent binary variables whose joint sample space increases exponentially with the number of motor units. We provide a tractable and accurate approximation for this quantity and also investigate simulation approaches incorporated into RJMCMC using results of Andrieu and Roberts (2009).

Report on the AIDS Vaccine 2008 Conference

The "AIDS Vaccine 2008" Conference was held in Cape Town, South Africa (October 13 to 16, 2008) and organized, under the aegis of the Global HIV Vaccine Enterprise, by Dr. Lynn Morris (Chair of the Conference) National Institute of Communicable Diseases; Dr. Koleka Mlisana from CAPRISA, University KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, Dr. Glenda Gray from Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University Witwatersrand, Johannesburg and Dr. Carolyn Williamson from Institute of Infectious Diseses. and Molecular Medicine, UCT, Cape Town (Co-Chairs of the Conference). Since the first AIDS Vaccine conference, organized in Paris in 2000, this was the first time it was held outside of the U.S. and Europe, and involved nearly 1,000 participants. Besides three Plenary Sessions with ten state-of-the-art plenary lectures and one Keynote Lecture given by Dr. A.S. Fauci (Director of NIAID, NIH, USA), the Conference was organized in nine oral sessions, four poster discussion groups covering a wide spectrum of scientific information relating to HIV vaccine research and development. Moreover three Symposia, two Special Sessions, one Roundtable as well as two Debates were held, the latter focusing on current controversial topics. The conference opening was memorable for a number of reasons: among these was the presence of South Africa's new Minister of Health, Barbara Hogan who, in her first speech in a major forum as a senior member of the SA Government, affirmed that HIV causes AIDS, and that the search for a vaccine is of paramount importance to SA and the rest of the world. A scientific summary of the Conference is reported in the present article, divided into four major topics: (1) vaccine concepts and design; (2) T-cell immunology and innate immunity; (3) B-cell immunology, neutralizing antibodies and mucosal immunology; and (4) clinical trials. © 2009 Landes Bioscience.

Quantitative approaches to comparing communication patterns on Twitter

To date, the available literature mainly discusses Twitter activity patterns in the context of individual case studies, while comparative research on a large number of communicative events and their dynamics and patterns is missing. By conducting a comparative study of more than 40 different cases (covering topics such as elections, natural disasters, corporate crises, and televised events) we identify a number of distinct types of discussion that can be observed on Twitter. Drawing on a range of communicative metrics, we show that thematic and contextual factors influence the usage of different communicative tools available to Twitter users, such as original tweets, @replies, retweets, and URLs. Based on this first analysis of the overall metrics of Twitter discussions, we also demonstrate stable patterns in the use of Twitter in the context of major topics and events.

Adaptive sizing of populations and number of islands in distributed genetic algorithms

Deciding the appropriate population size and number of is- lands for distributed island-model genetic algorithms is often critical to the algorithm’s success. This paper outlines a method that automatically searches for good combinations of island population sizes and the number of islands. The method is based on a race between competing parameter sets, and collaborative seeding of new parameter sets. This method is applicable to any problem, and makes distributed genetic algorithms easier to use by reducing the number of user-set parameters. The experimental results show that the proposed method robustly and reliably finds population and islands settings that are comparable to those found with traditional trial-and-error approaches.

Volunteering, pro-environmental attitudes and norms

In the spirit of previous work in the compliance literature (e.g., tax, littering), we investigate whether environmental social norms affect volunteering in environmental organizations. Using two ‘environmental morale’ variables as indirect measures, we analyze the impact of social norms on the incidence of unpaid work in environmental organizations. In addition, we test whether violation of a specific environmental norm initiates a conditional cooperation response. We explore a large individual data set covering 32 countries from both Western and Eastern Europe, and extend the number of countries investigated to test the robustness of the relationship at the macro level. Our results indicate a strong positive relationship between the proxies for environmental social norms and volunteering in environmental organizations. The relationship persists despite our various robustness checks.

Towards Bayesian experimental design for nonlinear models that require a large number of sampling times

The use of Bayesian methodologies for solving optimal experimental design problems has increased. Many of these methods have been found to be computationally intensive for design problems that require a large number of design points. A simulation-based approach that can be used to solve optimal design problems in which one is interested in finding a large number of (near) optimal design points for a small number of design variables is presented. The approach involves the use of lower dimensional parameterisations that consist of a few design variables, which generate multiple design points. Using this approach, one simply has to search over a few design variables, rather than searching over a large number of optimal design points, thus providing substantial computational savings. The methodologies are demonstrated on four applications, including the selection of sampling times for pharmacokinetic and heat transfer studies, and involve nonlinear models. Several Bayesian design criteria are also compared and contrasted, as well as several different lower dimensional parameterisation schemes for generating the many design points.

Mechanical properties of graphene : effects of layer number, temperature and isotope

Herein the mechanical properties of graphene, including Young’s modulus, fracture stress and fracture strain have been investigated by molecular dynamics simulations. The simulation results show that the mechanical properties of graphene are sensitive to the temperature changes but insensitive to the layer numbers in the multilayer graphene. Increasing temperature exerts adverse and significant effects on the mechanical properties of graphene. However, the adverse effect produced by the increasing layer number is marginal. On the other hand, isotope substitutions in graphene play a negligible role in modifying the mechanical properties of graphene.

Efficient solution of multiple cracks in great number using eigen COD boundary integral equations with iteration procedure

A newly developed computational approach is proposed in the paper for the analysis of multiple crack problems based on the eigen crack opening displacement (COD) boundary integral equations. The eigen COD particularly refers to a crack in an infinite domain under fictitious traction acting on the crack surface. With the concept of eigen COD, the multiple cracks in great number can be solved by using the conventional displacement discontinuity boundary integral equations in an iterative fashion with a small size of system matrix to determine all the unknown CODs step by step. To deal with the interactions among cracks for multiple crack problems, all cracks in the problem are divided into two groups, namely the adjacent group and the far-field group, according to the distance to the current crack in consideration. The adjacent group contains cracks with relatively small distances but strong effects to the current crack, while the others, the cracks of far-field group are composed of those with relatively large distances. Correspondingly, the eigen COD of the current crack is computed in two parts. The first part is computed by using the fictitious tractions of adjacent cracks via the local Eshelby matrix derived from the traction boundary integral equations in discretized form, while the second part is computed by using those of far-field cracks so that the high computational efficiency can be achieved in the proposed approach. The numerical results of the proposed approach are compared not only with those using the dual boundary integral equations (D-BIE) and the BIE with numerical Green's functions (NGF) but also with those of the analytical solutions in literature. The effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed approach is verified. Numerical examples are provided for the stress intensity factors of cracks, up to several thousands in number, in both the finite and infinite plates.

Link discovery for Chinese/English cross-language web information retrieval

Nowadays people heavily rely on the Internet for information and knowledge. Wikipedia is an online multilingual encyclopaedia that contains a very large number of detailed articles covering most written languages. It is often considered to be a treasury of human knowledge. It includes extensive hypertext links between documents of the same language for easy navigation. However, the pages in different languages are rarely cross-linked except for direct equivalent pages on the same subject in different languages. This could pose serious difficulties to users seeking information or knowledge from different lingual sources, or where there is no equivalent page in one language or another. In this thesis, a new information retrieval task—cross-lingual link discovery (CLLD) is proposed to tackle the problem of the lack of cross-lingual anchored links in a knowledge base such as Wikipedia. In contrast to traditional information retrieval tasks, cross language link discovery algorithms actively recommend a set of meaningful anchors in a source document and establish links to documents in an alternative language. In other words, cross-lingual link discovery is a way of automatically finding hypertext links between documents in different languages, which is particularly helpful for knowledge discovery in different language domains. This study is specifically focused on Chinese / English link discovery (C/ELD). Chinese / English link discovery is a special case of cross-lingual link discovery task. It involves tasks including natural language processing (NLP), cross-lingual information retrieval (CLIR) and cross-lingual link discovery. To justify the effectiveness of CLLD, a standard evaluation framework is also proposed. The evaluation framework includes topics, document collections, a gold standard dataset, evaluation metrics, and toolkits for run pooling, link assessment and system evaluation. With the evaluation framework, performance of CLLD approaches and systems can be quantified. This thesis contributes to the research on natural language processing and cross-lingual information retrieval in CLLD: 1) a new simple, but effective Chinese segmentation method, n-gram mutual information, is presented for determining the boundaries of Chinese text; 2) a voting mechanism of name entity translation is demonstrated for achieving a high precision of English / Chinese machine translation; 3) a link mining approach that mines the existing link structure for anchor probabilities achieves encouraging results in suggesting cross-lingual Chinese / English links in Wikipedia. This approach was examined in the experiments for better, automatic generation of cross-lingual links that were carried out as part of the study. The overall major contribution of this thesis is the provision of a standard evaluation framework for cross-lingual link discovery research. It is important in CLLD evaluation to have this framework which helps in benchmarking the performance of various CLLD systems and in identifying good CLLD realisation approaches. The evaluation methods and the evaluation framework described in this thesis have been utilised to quantify the system performance in the NTCIR-9 Crosslink task which is the first information retrieval track of this kind.

Tackling the health burden from household air pollution (HAP) : development and implementation of new WHO Guidelines

Household air pollution (HAP), arising mainly from the combustion of solid and other polluting fuels, is responsible for a very substantial public health burden, most recently estimated as causing 3.5 million premature deaths in 2010. These patterns of household fuel use have also important negative impacts on safety, prospects for poverty reduction and the environment, including climate change. Building on previous air quality guidelines, the WHO is developing new guidelines focused on household fuel combustion, covering cooking, heating and lighting, and although global, the key focus is low and middle income countries reflecting the distribution of disease burden. As discussed in this paper, currently in development, the guidelines will include reviews of a wide range of evidence including fuel use in homes, emissions from stoves and lighting, household air pollution and exposure levels experienced by populations, health risks, impacts of interventions on HAP and exposure, and also key factors influencing sustainable and equitable adoption of improved stoves and cleaner fuels. GRADE, the standard method used for guidelines evidence review may not be well suited to the variety and nature of evidence required for this project, and a modified approach is being developed and tested. Work on the guidelines is being carried out in close collaboration with the UN Foundation Global Alliance on Clean cookstoves, allowing alignment with specific tools including recently developed international voluntary standards for stoves, and the development of country action plans. Following publication, WHO plans to work closely with a number of countries to learn from implementation efforts, in order to further strengthen support and guidance. A case study on the situation and policy actions to date in Bhutan provide an illustration of the challenges and opportunities involved, and the timely importance of the new guidelines and associated research, evaluation and policy development agendas.

Stichtite : a review

Stichtite is a naturally occurring layered double hydroxide (LDH) with the ideal chemical formula Mg6Cr2CO3(OH)16·4H2O. It has received less attention in the literature than other LDHs and is often described as a rare mineral; however, abundant deposits of the mineral do exist. In this article we aim to review a number of significant publications concerning the mineral stichtite, including papers covering the discovery, geological origin, synthesis and characterizsation of stichtite. Characterization techniques reviewed include powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), infrared spectroscopy (IR), near infrared spectroscopy (NIR), Raman spectroscopy (Raman), thermogravimetry (TG) and electron microprobe analysis.