Collective futures: How projections about the future of society are related to actions and attitudes supporting social change

We identified the active ingredients in people’s visions of society’s future (“collective futures”) that could drive political behavior in the present. In eight studies (N = 595), people imagined society in 2050 where climate change was mitigated (Study 1), abortion laws relaxed (Study 2), marijuana legalized (Study 3), or the power of different religious groups had increased (Studies 4-8). Participants rated how this future society would differ from today in terms of societal-level dysfunction and development (e.g., crime, inequality, education, technology), people’s character (warmth, competence, morality), and their values (e.g., conservation, self-transcendence). These measures were related to present-day attitudes/intentions that would promote/prevent this future (e.g., act on climate change, vote for a Muslim politician). A projection about benevolence in society (i.e., warmth/morality of people’s character) was the only dimension consistently and uniquely associated with present-day attitudes and intentions across contexts. Implications for social change theories, political communication, and policy design are discussed.

Multi-species sequence comparison reveals conservation of ghrelin gene-derived splice variants encoding a truncated ghrelin peptide

The peptide hormone ghrelin is a potent orexigen produced predominantly in the stomach. It has a number of other biological actions, including roles in appetite stimulation, energy balance, the stimulation of growth hormone release and the regulation of cell proliferation. Recently, several ghrelin gene splice variants have been described. Here, we attempted to identify conserved alternative splicing of the ghrelin gene by cross-species sequence comparisons. We identified a novel human exon 2-deleted variant and provide preliminary evidence that this splice variant and in1-ghrelin encode a C-terminally truncated form of the ghrelin peptide, termed minighrelin. These variants are expressed in humans and mice, demonstrating conservation of alternative splicing spanning 90 million years. Minighrelin appears to have similar actions to full-length ghrelin, as treatment with exogenous minighrelin peptide stimulates appetite and feeding in mice. Forced expression of the exon 2-deleted preproghrelin variant mirrors the effect of the canonical preproghrelin, stimulating cell proliferation and migration in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line. This is the first study to characterise an exon 2-deleted preproghrelin variant and to demonstrate sequence conservation of ghrelin gene-derived splice variants that encode a truncated ghrelin peptide. This adds further impetus for studies into the alternative splicing of the ghrelin gene and the function of novel ghrelin peptides in vertebrates.

Use of biological reference points for the conservation of atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.)in the River Lune, North West England.

This paper deals with the development and use of biological reference points for salmon conservation on the River Lune, England. The Lune supports recreational and net fisheries with annual catches in the region of 1,000 and 1356 salmon respectively. Using models transported from other river systems, biological reference points exclusive to the Lune were developed; specifically the number of eggs deposited and carrying capacity estimates for age 0+ and 1+ parr. The conservation limit was estimated at 11.9 million eggs and between 1989 and 1998 was exceeded in two years. Comparison of juvenile salmon densities in 1991 and 1997 with estimates of carrying capacity indicated that 0+ and 1+ parr densities were at around 60 % of carrying capacity and may relate to the number of eggs deposited in 1990 and 1996 being approximately 70% of the target value. The paper discusses the management actions taken in order to ensure that the management target of the conservation limit being met four years out of five is delivered. It also discusses the balance between conservation and exploitation and the socio-economic decisions made in order to ensure parity of impacts on the rod and net fisheries. The regulations have been enforced since 1999 and the paper concludes with an assessment of the actions taken to deliver the management targets, over the last five years.

Meres and mosses conservation plan: Rostherne Mere

This is a report on the Conservation Plan for Rostherne Mere. The project primarly involved collating existing information from a variety of sources, supplemented by a limited amount of survey work commissioned for the project, including identification of the surface water catchment, water flows, and land use within the catchment. The section 1 outlines the physical situation of the Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), its geological setting and hydrological regime. A summary of the ecological characteristics, conservation interest and objectives is provided in Section 2, and the issues affecting the site are identified in Section 3. . Operations and mechanisms for addressing the issues are suggested in Section 4, compiled from field visits, information held on file by English Nature and the Environment Agency, and English Nature. The last Section 5 provides a brief summary of the site’s condition and a discussion of the issues and operations suggested. A summary table is provided of the recommended actions for each site. Supporting information on the hydrology and aquatic ecology (where relevant) is provided in appendices.

Climate Change Adaptation for Conservation in Madagascar

Madagascar's imperilled biota are now experiencing the effects of a new threat—climate change (Raxworthy et al. 2008). With more than 90% endemism among plants, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, the stakes are high. The pristine landscapes that allowed this exceptional biodiversity to survive past climate changes are largely gone. Deforestation has claimed approximately 90% of the island's natural forest (Ingram & Dawson 2005; Harper et al. 2007) and what remains is highly fragmented, providing a poor template for large-scale species range shifts. The impacts of current and future climate change may therefore be much different than past impacts, with profound implications for biodiversity.
We review evidence of past response to climate change, models of future change and projected biological response, developing insights to formulate adaptation actions for reducing extinction in Madagascar's biota. We then explore the cost of implementing actions and examine new income opportunities developing through efforts to mitigate climate change.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution and conservation of endemic forest land snails of Madeira Island

Climate change is emerging as one of the major threats to natural communities of the world’s ecosystems; and biodiversity hotspots, such as Madeira Island, might face a challenging future in the conservation of endangered land snails’ species. With this thesis, progresses have been made in order to properly understand the impact of climate on these vulnerable taxa; and species distribution models coupled with GIS and climate change scenarios have become crucial to understand the relations between species distribution and environmental conditions, identifying threats and determining biodiversity vulnerability. With the use of MaxEnt, important changes in the species suitable areas were obtained. Laurel forest species, highly dependent on precipitation and relative humidity, may face major losses on their future suitable areas, leading to the possible extinction of several endangered species, such as Leiostyla heterodon. Despite the complexity of the biological systems, the intrinsic uncertainty of species distribution models and the lack of information about land snails’ functional traits, this analysis contributed to a pioneer study on the impacts of climate change on endemic species of Madeira Island. The future inclusion of predictions of the effect of climate change on species distribution as part of IUCN assessments could contribute to species prioritizing, promoting specific management actions and maximizing conservation investment.

Conserver ou restaurer? La dialectique de l’œuvre architecturale : histoire d'un débat qui a contribué à la formation de la culture de la conservation du patrimoine bâti

La question de recherche « Conserver ou restaurer ? » est le point de départ d’une aventure invitant le lecteur à répondre à qu’est-ce qui oriente nos interventions en matière de conservation du patrimoine bâti. Sachant que ces positions rivales ont toutes une prétention à la vérité, cette thèse fait l’hypothèse d’une médiation entre les deux approches en clarifiant ses différentes interprétations. À partir d'un regard critique de la théorie de Cesare Brandi fondée sur la dialectique historique-artistique de l’œuvre d’art ainsi que d'une réflexion sur la nature fonctionnelle de l’œuvre architecturale, cette thèse démontre qu’il n’y a pas lieu a priori de donner une prédominance à l’une des deux options, ni à établir une échelle de valeurs prédéterminées, mais dévoile un dénominateur commun qui est le temps. Ce dernier ne se restreint pas au passé et au présent, mais implique la puissance destructrice du temps de la nature et le temps historique fondé sur un présent durable riche du passé et ouvert sur l'avenir. Les résultats de la recherche révèlent enfin un dialogue possible entre nos deux alternatives, en proposant une éthique disciplinaire axée sur la dialectique du temps. Savoir « quand conserver ou quand restaurer » demande la reconnaissance de ce que l’on retient de plus significatif à travers l’existence de l’œuvre. Situer cette signification dans un passé révolu désigne l’œuvre comme témoignage d’un temps passé, en lui reconnaissant sa fonction mémorielle ou remémorative ; d’où l’approche à prédominance conservative visant à faire reculer la puissance destructrice du temps de la nature et à préserver le témoignage matériel de la dégradation. Au contraire, situer cette signification dans un présent vivant, c’est reconnaître sa vocation identitaire destinée à la représentation d’une culture ; d’où l’approche à prédominance restaurative (ré-intégrative) fondée sur le temps historique, d’un présent durable riche du passé et ouvert sur l'avenir visant à en révéler le sens. En bref, en ce qui concerne tout le patrimoine bâti, on ne peut parler que d’une dialectique fondamentale issue de la nature même de ces œuvres, à interpréter sous leur fonction mémorielle et leur vocation identitaire. Par conséquent, conserver ou restaurer devraient être réinterprétés par préserver la mémoire ou révéler l’identité. Ainsi, la conservation et la restauration ne doivent plus être entendues comme deux options antagonistes, mais comme deux modalités d’interprétation au service de la médiation de l’œuvre architecturale à travers le temps.

A method for evaluating alternative landscape management scenarios in relation to the biodiversity conservation of habitats

A perennial issue for land use policy is the evaluation of landscape biodiversity and the associated cost effectiveness of any biodiversity conservation policy actions. Based on the CUA methodology as applied to species conservation, this paper develops a methodology for evaluating the impact on habitats of alternative landscape management scenarios. The method incorporates three dimensions of habitats, quantity change, quality change and relative scarcity, and is illustrated in relation to the alternative landscape management scenarios for the Scottish Highlands (Cairngorms) study area of the BioScene project. The results demonstrate the value of the method for evaluating biodiversity conservation policies through their impact on habitats.

Plant conservation: old problems, new perspectives

A review is given of the major conceptual changes that have taken place during the last 50 years in our understanding of the nature of plant conservation and of the principal methodological advances in undertaking conservation assessments and actions, largely through the incorporation of tools and techniques from other disciplines. The interrelationships between conservation and sustainable use are considered as well as the impact of the development of the discipline of conservation biology, the effects of the general acceptance of the concept of biodiversity and the practical implications of the implementation of the Convention on Biological diversity. The effect on conservation policy and management of the accelerating loss or conversion of habitats throughout the world and approaches for combating this are discussed.

Are existing biodiversity conservation strategies appropriate in a changing climate?

Many countries have conservation plans for threatened species, but such plans have generally been developed without taking into account the potential impacts of climate change. Here, we apply a decision framework, specifically developed to identify and prioritise climate change adaptation actions and demonstrate its use for 30 species threatened in the UK. Our aim is to assess whether government conservation recommendations remain appropriate under a changing climate. The species, associated with three different habitats (lowland heath, broadleaved woodland and calcareous grassland), were selected from a range of taxonomic groups (primarily moths and vascular plants, but also including bees, bryophytes, carabid beetles and spiders). We compare the actions identified for these threatened species by the decision framework with those included in existing conservation plans, as developed by the UK Government's statutory adviser on nature conservation. We find that many existing conservation recommendations are also identified by the decision framework. However, there are large differences in the spatial prioritisation of actions when explicitly considering projected climate change impacts. This includes recommendations for actions to be carried out in areas where species do not currently occur, in order to allow them to track movement of suitable conditions for their survival. Uncertainties in climate change projections are not a reason to ignore them. Our results suggest that existing conservation plans, which do not take into account potential changes in suitable climatic conditions for species, may fail to maximise species persistence. Comparisons across species also suggest a more habitat-focused approach could be adopted to enable climate change adaptation for multiple species.

A decision framework for considering climate change adaptation in biodiversity conservation planning

General principles of climate change adaptation for biodiversity have been formulated, but do not help prioritize actions. This is inhibiting their integration into conservation planning. We address this need with a decision framework that identifies and prioritizes actions to increase the adaptive capacity of species. The framework classifies species according to their current distribution and projected future climate space, as a basis for selecting appropriate decision trees. Decisions rely primarily on expert opinion, with additional information from quantitative models, where data are available. The framework considers in-situ management, followed by interventions at the landscape scale and finally translocation or ex-situ conservation. Synthesis and applications: From eight case studies, the key interventions identified for integrating climate change adaptation into conservation planning were local management and expansion of sites. We anticipate that, in combination with consideration of socio-economic and local factors, the decision framework will be a useful tool for conservation and natural resource managers to integrate adaptation measures into conservation plans.

Predictive distribution models and their application in wildlife conservation

Wildlife managers are often faced with the difficult task of determining the distribution of species, and their preferred habitats, at large spatial scales. This task is even more challenging when the species of concern is in low abundance and/or the terrain is largely inaccessible. Spatially explicit distribution models, derived from multivariate statistical analyses and implemented in a geographic information system (GIS), can be used to predict the distributions of species and their habitats, thus making them a useful conservation tool. We present two such models: one for a dasyurid, the Swamp Antechinus (Antechinus minimus), and the other for a ground-dwelling bird, the Rufous Bristlebird (Dasyornis broadbenti), both of which are rare species occurring in the coastal heathlands of south-western Victoria. Models were generated using generalized linear modelling (GLM) techniques with species presence or absence as the independent variable and a series of landscape variables derived from GIS layers and high-resolution imagery as the predictors. The most parsimonious model, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, for each species then was extrapolated spatially in a GIS. Probability of species presence was used as an index of habitat suitability. Because habitat fragmentation is thought to be one of the major threats to these species, an assessment of the spatial distribution of suitable habitat across the landscape is vital in prescribing management actions to prevent further habitat fragmentation.

Ecological processes : a key element in strategies for nature conservation

A common approach to nature conservation is to identify and protect natural 'assets’ such as ecosystems and threatened species. While such actions are essential, protection of assets will not be effective unless the ecological processes that sustain them are maintained. Here, we consider the role of ecological processes and the complementary perspective for conservation arising from an emphasis on process. Many kinds of ecological processes sustain biodiversity: including climatic processes, primary productivity, hydrological processes, formation of biophysical habitats, interactions between species, movements of organisms and natural disturbance regimes. Anthropogenic threats to conservation exert their influence by modifying or disrupting these processes. Such threats extend across tenures, they frequently occur offsite, they commonly induce non-linear responses, changes may be irreversible and the full consequences may not be experienced for lengthy periods. While many managers acknowledge these considerations in principle, there is much scope for greater recognition of ecological processes in nature conservation and greater emphasis on long time-frames and large spatial scales in conservation planning. Practical measures that promote ecological processes include: monitoring to determine the trajectory and rate of processes; incorporating surrogates for processes in conservation and restoration projects; specific interventions to manipulate and restore processes; and planning for the ecological future before options are foreclosed. The long-term conservation of biodiversity and the wellbeing of human society depend upon both the protection of natural assets and maintaining the integrity of the ecological processes that sustain them.

Fire management for biodiversity conservation : key research questions and our capacity to answer them

Knowing how species respond to fire regimes is essential for ecologically sustainable management. This axiom raises two important questions: (1) what knowledge is the most important to develop and (2) to what extent can current research methods deliver that knowledge? We identify three areas of required knowledge: (i) a mechanistic understanding of species’ responses to fire regimes; (ii) knowledge of how the spatial and temporal arrangement of fires influences the biota; and (iii) an understanding of interactions of fire regimes with other processes. We review the capacity of empirical research to address these knowledge gaps, and reveal many limitations. Manipulative experiments are limited by the number and scope of treatments that can be applied, natural experiments are limited by treatment availability and confounding factors, and longitudinal studies are difficult to maintain, particularly due to unplanned disturbance events. Simulation modelling is limited by the quality of the underlying empirical data and by uncertainty in how well model structure represents reality. Due to the constraints on large-scale, long-term research, the potential for management experiments to inform adaptive management is limited. Rather than simply recommending adaptive management, we define a research agenda to maximise the rate of learning in this difficult field. This includes measuring responses at a species level, building capacity to implement natural experiments, undertaking simulation modelling, and judicious application of experimental approaches. Developing ecologically sustainable fire management practices will require sustained research effort and a sophisticated research agenda based on carefully targeting appropriate methods to address critical management questions.