Optimal allocation of conservation effort among subpopulations of a threatened species: How important is patch quality?

Money is often a limiting factor in conservation, and attempting to conserve endangered species can be costly. Consequently, a framework for optimizing fiscally constrained conservation decisions for a single species is needed. In this paper we find the optimal budget allocation among isolated subpopulations of a threatened species to minimize local extinction probability. We solve the problem using stochastic dynamic programming, derive a useful and simple alternative guideline for allocating funds, and test its performance using forward simulation. The model considers subpopulations that persist in habitat patches of differing quality, which in our model is reflected in different relationships between money invested and extinction risk. We discover that, in most cases, subpopulations that are less efficient to manage should receive more money than those that are more efficient to manage, due to higher investment needed to reduce extinction risk. Our simple investment guideline performs almost as well as the exact optimal strategy. We illustrate our approach with a case study of the management of the Sumatran tiger, Panthera tigris sumatrae, in Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), Indonesia. We find that different budgets should be allocated to the separate tiger subpopulations in KSNP. The subpopulation that is not at risk of extinction does not require any management investment. Based on the combination of risks of extinction and habitat quality, the optimal allocation for these particular tiger subpopulations is an unusual case: subpopulations that occur in higher-quality habitat (more efficient to manage) should receive more funds than the remaining subpopulation that is in lower-quality habitat. Because the yearly budget allocated to the KSNP for tiger conservation is small, to guarantee the persistence of all the subpopulations that are currently under threat we need to prioritize those that are easier to save. When allocating resources among subpopulations of a threatened species, the combined effects of differences in habitat quality, cost of action, and current subpopulation probability of extinction need to be integrated. We provide a useful guideline for allocating resources among isolated subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Robust conservation decision-making

Decision-making for conservation is conducted within the margins of limited funding. Furthermore, to allocate these scarce resources we make assumptions about the relationship between management impact and expenditure. The structure of these relationships, however, is rarely known with certainty. We present a summary of work investigating the impact of model uncertainty on robust decision-making in conservation and how this is affected by available conservation funding. We show that achieving robustness in conservation decisions can require a triage approach, and emphasize the need for managers to consider triage not as surrendering but as rational decision making to ensure species persistence in light of the urgency of the conservation problems, uncertainty, and the poor state of conservation funding. We illustrate this theory by a specific application to allocation of funding to reduce poaching impact on the Sumatran tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae in Kerinci Seblat National Park, Indonesia. To conserve our environment, conservation managers must make decisions in the face of substantial uncertainty. Further, they must deal with the fact that limitations in budgets and temporal constraints have led to a lack of knowledge on the systems we are trying to preserve and on the benefits of the actions we have available (Balmford & Cowling 2006). Given this paucity of decision-informing data there is a considerable need to assess the impact of uncertainty on the benefit of management options (Regan et al. 2005). Although models of management impact can improve decision making (e.g.Tenhumberg et al. 2004), they typically rely on assumptions around which there is substantial uncertainty. Ignoring this 'model uncertainty', can lead to inferior decision-making (Regan et al. 2005), and potentially, the loss of the species we are trying to protect. Current methods used in ecology allow model uncertainty to be incorporated into the model selection process (Burnham & Anderson 2002; Link & Barker 2006), but do not enable decision-makers to assess how this uncertainty would change a decision. This is the basis of information-gap decision theory (info-gap); finding strategies most robust to model uncertainty (Ben-Haim 2006). Info-gap has permitted conservation biology to make the leap from recognizing uncertainty to explicitly incorporating severe uncertainty into decision-making. In this paper we present a summary of McDonald-Madden et al (2008a) who use an info-gap framework to address the impact of uncertainty in the functional representations of biological systems on conservation decision-making. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of two key elements limiting conservation decision-making - funding and knowledge - and how they interact to influence the best management strategy for a threatened species. Copyright © ASCE 2011.

Should we implement monitoring or research for conservation?

[Letter to editor, brief commentary or brief communication ]

Subpopulation triage: How to allocate conservation effort among populations

Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Using conservation evidence to guide management

Almost 10 years ago, Pullin and Knight (2001) called for an “effectiveness revolution in conservation” to be enabled by the systematic evaluation of evidence for conservation decision making. Drawing from the model used in clinicalmedicine, they outlined the concept of “evidencebased conservation” in which existing information, or evidence, from relevant and rigorous research is compiled and analyzed in a systematic manner to inform conservation actions (Cochrane 1972). The promise of evidencebased conservation has generated significant interest; 25 systematic reviews have been completed since 2004 and dozens are underway (Collaboration for Environmental Evidence 2010). However we argue that an “effectiveness revolution” (Pullin & Knight 2001) in conservation will not be possible unless mechanisms are devised for incorporating the growing evidence base into decision frameworks. For conservation professionals to accomplish the missions of their organizations they must demonstrate that their actions actually achieve objectives (Pullin & Knight 2009). Systematic evaluation provides a framework for objectively evaluating the effectiveness of actions. To leverage the benefit of these evaluations, we need resource-allocation systems that are responsive to their outcomes. The allocation of conservation resources is often the product of institutional priorities or reliance on intuition (Sutherland et al. 2004; Pullin & Knight 2005; Cook et al. 2010). We highlight the NICE technologyappraisal process because it provides an example of formal integration of systematic-evidence evaluation with provision of guidance for action. The transparent process, which clearly delineates costs and benefits of each alternative action, could also provide the public with new insight into the environmental effects of different decisions. This insight could stimulate a wider discussion about investment in conservation by demonstrating how changes in funding might affect the probability of achieving conservation objectives. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology

Ecosystem management along ephemeral rivers: Trading off socio-economic water supply and vegetation conservation under flood regime uncertainty

In ecosystems driven by water availability, plant community dynamics depend on complex interactions between vegetation, hydrology, and human water resources use. Along ephemeral rivers—where water availability is erratic—vegetation and people are particularly vulnerable to changes in each other's water use. Sensible management requires that water supply be maintained for people, while preserving ecosystem health. Meeting such requirements is challenging because of the unpredictable water availability. We applied information gap decision theory to an ecohydrological system model of the Kuiseb River environment in Namibia. Our aim was to identify the robustness of ecosystem and water management strategies to uncertainties in future flood regimes along ephemeral rivers. We evaluated the trade-offs between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertainty to account for both (i) human demands for water supply and (ii) reducing the risk of species extinction caused by water mining. Increasing uncertainty of flood regime parameters reduced the performance under both objectives. Remarkably, the ecological objective (species coexistence) was more sensitive to uncertainty than the water supply objective. However, within each objective, the relative performance of different management strategies was insensitive to uncertainty. The ‘best’ management strategy was one that is tuned to the competitive species interactions in the Kuiseb environment. It regulates the biomass of the strongest competitor and, thus, at the same time decreases transpiration, thereby increasing groundwater storage and reducing pressure on less dominant species. This robust mutually acceptable strategy enables species persistence without markedly reducing the water supply for humans. This study emphasises the utility of ecohydrological models for resource management of water-controlled ecosystems. Although trade-offs were identified between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertain future flood regimes, management strategies were identified that help to secure an ecologically sustainable water supply.

Two-dimensional bow and stern flows in a finite-depth fluid with constant vorticity

This thesis is concerned with two-dimensional free surface flows past semi-infinite surface-piercing bodies in a fluid of finite-depth. Throughout the study, it is assumed that the fluid in question is incompressible, and that the effects of viscosity and surface tension are negligible. The problems considered are physically important, since they can be used to model the flow of water near the bow or stern of a wide, blunt ship. Alternatively, the solutions can be interpreted as describing the flow into, or out of, a horizontal slot. In the past, all research conducted on this topic has been dedicated to the situation where the flow is irrotational. The results from such studies are extended here, by allowing the fluid to have constant vorticity throughout the flow domain. In addition, new results for irrotational flow are also presented. When studying the flow of a fluid past a surface-piercing body, it is important to stipulate in advance the nature of the free surface as it intersects the body. Three different possibilities are considered in this thesis. In the first of these possibilities, it is assumed that the free surface rises up and meets the body at a stagnation point. For this configuration, the nonlinear problem is solved numerically with the use of a boundary integral method in the physical plane. Here the semi-infinite body is assumed to be rectangular in shape, with a rounded corner. Supercritical solutions which satisfy the radiation condition are found for various values of the Froude number and the dimensionless vorticity. Subcritical solutions are also found; however these solutions violate the radiation condition and are characterised by a train of waves upstream. In the limit that the height of the body above the horizontal bottom vanishes, the flow approaches that due to a submerged line sink in a $90^\circ$ corner. This limiting problem is also examined as a special case. The second configuration considered in this thesis involves the free surface attaching smoothly to the front face of the rectangular shaped body. For this configuration, nonlinear solutions are computed using a similar numerical scheme to that used in the stagnant attachment case. It is found that these solution exist for all supercritical Froude numbers. The related problem of the cusp-like flow due to a submerged sink in a corner is also considered. Finally, the flow of a fluid emerging from beneath a semi-infinite flat plate is examined. Here the free surface is assumed to detach from the trailing edge of the plate horizontally. A linear problem is formulated under the assumption that the elevation of the plate is close to the undisturbed free surface level. This problem is solved exactly using the Wiener-Hopf technique, and subcritical solutions are found which are characterised by a train of sinusoidal waves in the far field. The nonlinear problem is also considered. Exact relations between certain parameters for supercritical flow are derived using conservation of mass and momentum arguments, and these are confirmed numerically. Nonlinear subcritical solutions are computed, and the results are compared to those predicted by the linear theory.

Estimate of Lagrangian integral scales in shallow tidal water using high resolution GPS-tracked drifters

In estuaries and natural water channels, the estimate of velocity and dispersion coefficients is critical to the knowledge of scalar transport and mixing. This estimate is rarely available experimentally at sub-tidal time scale in shallow water channels where high frequency is required to capture its spatio-temporal variation. This study estimates Lagrangian integral scales and autocorrelation curves, which are key parameters for obtaining velocity fluctuations and dispersion coefficients, and their spatio-temporal variability from deployments of Lagrangian drifters sampled at 10 Hz for a 4-hour period. The power spectral densities of the velocities between 0.0001 and 0.8 Hz were well fitted with a slope of 5/3 predicted by Kolmogorov’s similarity hypothesis within the inertial subrange, and were similar to the Eulerian power spectral previously observed within the estuary. The result showed that large velocity fluctuations determine the magnitude of the integral time scale, TL. Overlapping of short segments improved the stability of the estimate of TL by taking advantage of the redundant data included in the autocorrelation function. The integral time scales were about 20 s and varied by up to a factor of 8. These results are essential inputs for spatial binning of velocities, Lagrangian stochastic modelling and single particle analysis of the tidal estuary.

Australia's Biodiversity Conservation Strategy 2010-2020 Submission to the National Biodiversity Strategy Review Taskforce

This submission focuses on “Priority for Change 3: Knowledge for all” and “Priority for Change 5: Involving Indigenous Australians”. Our particular interest lies with ensuring that Indigenous knowledge holders are engaged with in a manner that recognises their prior rights over their own knowledge and intellectual property. As the Preamble of the recently endorsed United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples states, we need to; “Recognis[e] that respect for Indigenous Knowledge, cultures and traditional practises contributes to sustainable and equitable development and proper management of the environment”.

Submission on the Hawke Interim Review of the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (Cth)

There are currently no regulatory mechanisms, laws or policies that specifically provide rights to Indigenous peoples over their Indigenous knowledge and intellectual property. We strongly recommend that the commonwealth take the lead to ensure that national sui generis laws are developed (perhaps to operate initially in areas of Cth jurisdiction, such as IPAs and national parks). The development of such laws should be in tandem with practical guidelines to assist their implementation. A comprehensive, nationally consistent scheme for access to genetic resources, which offers meaningful protection of traditional knowledge and substantive benefit-sharing with Indigenous communities, has to be developed. There are already a range of reports/resources that urge these same reforms and that we direct the Enquiry to again; these include the Voumard Report (2000) – especially Fourmile’s Appendix 10 – “Indigenous Interests”, and Terri Jankes “Our Culture, Our Future (1998).

Finite volume evolution Galerkin method for hyperbolic conservation laws with spatially varying flux functions

We present a generalization of the finite volume evolution Galerkin scheme [M. Lukacova-Medvid'ova,J. Saibertov'a, G. Warnecke, Finite volume evolution Galerkin methods for nonlinear hyperbolic systems, J. Comp. Phys. (2002) 183 533-562; M. Luacova-Medvid'ova, K.W. Morton, G. Warnecke, Finite volume evolution Galerkin (FVEG) methods for hyperbolic problems, SIAM J. Sci. Comput. (2004) 26 1-30] for hyperbolic systems with spatially varying flux functions. Our goal is to develop a genuinely multi-dimensional numerical scheme for wave propagation problems in a heterogeneous media. We illustrate our methodology for acoustic waves in a heterogeneous medium but the results can be generalized to more complex systems. The finite volume evolution Galerkin (FVEG) method is a predictor-corrector method combining the finite volume corrector step with the evolutionary predictor step. In order to evolve fluxes along the cell interfaces we use multi-dimensional approximate evolution operator. The latter is constructed using the theory of bicharacteristics under the assumption of spatially dependent wave speeds. To approximate heterogeneous medium a staggered grid approach is used. Several numerical experiments for wave propagation with continuous as well as discontinuous wave speeds confirm the robustness and reliability of the new FVEG scheme.

Analysis on conservation of disulphide bonds and their structural features in homologous protein domain families

Background: Disulphide bridges are well known to play key roles in stability, folding and functions of proteins. Introduction or deletion of disulphides by site-directed mutagenesis have produced varying effects on stability and folding depending upon the protein and location of disulphide in the 3-D structure. Given the lack of complete understanding it is worthwhile to learn from an analysis of extent of conservation of disulphides in homologous proteins. We have also addressed the question of what structural interactions replaces a disulphide in a homologue in another homologue. Results: Using a dataset involving 34,752 pairwise comparisons of homologous protein domains corresponding to 300 protein domain families of known 3-D structures, we provide a comprehensive analysis of extent of conservation of disulphide bridges and their structural features. We report that only 54% of all the disulphide bonds compared between the homologous pairs are conserved, even if, a small fraction of the non-conserved disulphides do include cytoplasmic proteins. Also, only about one fourth of the distinct disulphides are conserved in all the members in protein families. We note that while conservation of disulphide is common in many families, disulphide bond mutations are quite prevalent. Interestingly, we note that there is no clear relationship between sequence identity between two homologous proteins and disulphide bond conservation. Our analysis on structural features at the sites where cysteines forming disulphide in one homologue are replaced by non-Cys residues show that the elimination of a disulphide in a homologue need not always result in stabilizing interactions between equivalent residues. Conclusion: We observe that in the homologous proteins, disulphide bonds are conserved only to a modest extent. Very interestingly, we note that extent of conservation of disulphide in homologous proteins is unrelated to the overall sequence identity between homologues. The non-conserved disulphides are often associated with variable structural features that were recruited to be associated with differentiation or specialisation of protein function.

Universal crack closure integral for SIF estimation

Numerical analysis of cracked structures often involves numerical estimation of stress intensity factors (SIFs) at a crack tip/front. A newly developed formulation called universal crack closure integral (UCCI) for the evaluation of potential energy release rates (PERRs) and the corresponding SIFs is presented in this paper. Unlike the existing element dedicated forms of crack closure integrals (MCCI, VCCI) with application limited to finite element analysis, this new numerical SIF/PERR estimation technique is independent of the basic stress analysis procedure, making it universally applicable. The second merit of this procedure is that it avoids the generally error-producing zones close to the crack tip/front singularity. The UCCI procedure, based on Irwin's original CCI, is formulated and explored using a simple 2D problem of a straight crack in an infinite sheet. It is then applied to some three-dimensional crack geometries with the stresses and displacements obtained from a boundary element program.

Integral Formulation of the Problem of Current Distribution in Compulsator Wires of Electromagnetic Launchers and Railguns

Compulsators are power sources of choice for use in electromagnetic launchers and railguns. These devices hold the promise of reducing unit costs of payload to orbit. In an earlier work, the author had calculated the current distribution in compulsator wires by considering the wire to be split into a finite number of separate wires. The present work develops an integral formulation of the problem of current distribution in compulsator wires which leads to an integrodifferential equation. Analytical solutions, including those for the integration constants, are obtained in closed form. The analytical solutions present a much clearer picture of the effect of various input parameters on the cross-sectional current distribution and point to ways in which the desired current density distribution can be achieved. Results are graphically presented and discussed, with particular reference to a 50-kJ compulsator in Bangalore. Finite-element analysis supports the results.