Comment on ``Conditional Exceedance Probabilities''

In a recent paper, Mason et al. propose a reliability test of ensemble forecasts for a continuous, scalar verification. As noted in the paper, the test relies on a very specific interpretation of ensembles, namely, that the ensemble members represent quantiles of some underlying distribution. This quantile interpretation is not the only interpretation of ensembles, another popular one being the Monte Carlo interpretation. Mason et al. suggest estimating the quantiles in this situation; however, this approach is fundamentally flawed. Errors in the quantile estimates are not independent of the exceedance events, and consequently the conditional exceedance probabilities (CEP) curves are not constant, which is a fundamental assumption of the test. The test would reject reliable forecasts with probability much higher than the test size.

Some numerical experiments on the effect of the variation of static stability in two-layer quasi-geostrophic models

A method to solve a quasi-geostrophic two-layer model including the variation of static stability is presented. The divergent part of the wind is incorporated by means of an iterative procedure. The procedure is rather fast and the time of computation is only 60–70% longer than for the usual two-layer model. The method of solution is justified by the conservation of the difference between the gross static stability and the kinetic energy. To eliminate the side-boundary conditions the experiments have been performed on a zonal channel model. The investigation falls mainly into three parts: The first part (section 5) contains a discussion of the significance of some physically inconsistent approximations. It is shown that physical inconsistencies are rather serious and for these inconsistent models which were studied the total kinetic energy increased faster than the gross static stability. In the next part (section 6) we are studying the effect of a Jacobian difference operator which conserves the total kinetic energy. The use of this operator in two-layer models will give a slight improvement but probably does not have any practical use in short periodic forecasts. It is also shown that the energy-conservative operator will change the wave-speed in an erroneous way if the wave-number or the grid-length is large in the meridional direction. In the final part (section 7) we investigate the behaviour of baroclinic waves for some different initial states and for two energy-consistent models, one with constant and one with variable static stability. According to the linear theory the waves adjust rather rapidly in such a way that the temperature wave will lag behind the pressure wave independent of the initial configuration. Thus, both models give rise to a baroclinic development even if the initial state is quasi-barotropic. The effect of the variation of static stability is very small, qualitative differences in the development are only observed during the first 12 hours. For an amplifying wave we will get a stabilization over the troughs and an instabilization over the ridges.

Symmetric stability of compressible zonal flows on a generalized equatorial β plane

Sufficient conditions are derived for the linear stability with respect to zonally symmetric perturbations of a steady zonal solution to the nonhydrostatic compressible Euler equations on an equatorial � plane, including a leading order representation of the Coriolis force terms due to the poleward component of the planetary rotation vector. A version of the energy–Casimir method of stability proof is applied: an invariant functional of the Euler equations linearized about the equilibrium zonal flow is found, and positive definiteness of the functional is shown to imply linear stability of the equilibrium. It is shown that an equilibrium is stable if the potential vorticity has the same sign as latitude and the Rayleigh centrifugal stability condition that absolute angular momentum increase toward the equator on surfaces of constant pressure is satisfied. The result generalizes earlier results for hydrostatic and incompressible systems and for systems that do not account for the nontraditional Coriolis force terms. The stability of particular equilibrium zonal velocity, entropy, and density fields is assessed. A notable case in which the effect of the nontraditional Coriolis force is decisive is the instability of an angular momentum profile that decreases away from the equator but is flatter than quadratic in latitude, despite its satisfying both the centrifugal and convective stability conditions.

The stability of a two-dimensional vorticity filament under uniform strain

The quantitative effects of uniform strain and background rotation on the stability of a strip of constant vorticity (a simple shear layer) are examined. The thickness of the strip decreases in time under the strain, so it is necessary to formulate the linear stability analysis for a time-dependent basic flow. The results show that even a strain rate γ (scaled with the vorticity of the strip) as small as 0.25 suppresses the conventional Rayleigh shear instability mechanism, in the sense that the r.m.s. wave steepness cannot amplify by more than a certain factor, and must eventually decay. For γ < 0.25 the amplification factor increases as γ decreases; however, it is only 3 when γ e 0.065. Numerical simulations confirm the predictions of linear theory at small steepness and predict a threshold value necessary for the formation of coherent vortices. The results help to explain the impression from numerous simulations of two-dimensional turbulence reported in the literature that filaments of vorticity infrequently roll up into vortices. The stabilization effect may be expected to extend to two- and three-dimensional quasi-geostrophic flows.

Instabilities in thermal gravity with a cosmological constant

It is shown that in quantum gravity at finite temperature, the effective potential evaluated in the tadpole approximation can have a local minimum below a certain critical temperature. However, when the leading higher order thermal loop corrections are included, one finds that no static solution exists at high temperature. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stability of the curvature perturbation in dark sectors` mutual interacting models

We consider perturbations in a cosmological model with a small coupling between dark energy and dark matter. We prove that the stability of the curvature perturbation depends on the type of coupling between dark sectors. When the dark energy is of quintessence type, if the coupling is proportional to the dark matter energy density, it will drive the instability in the curvature perturbations: however if the coupling is proportional to the energy density of dark energy, there is room for the stability in the curvature perturbations. When the dark energy is of phantom type, the perturbations are always stable, no matter whether the coupling is proportional to the one or the other energy density. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stability and interface properties of thin cellulose ester films adsorbed from acetone and ethyl acetate solutions

Stability and interface properties of cellulose acetate propionate (CAP) and cellulose acetate butyrate (CAB) films adsorbed from acetone or ethyl acetate onto Si wafers have been investigated by means of contact angle measurements and atomic force microscopy (AFM). Surface energy (gamma(total)(S)) values determined for CAP adsorbed from acetone are larger than those from ethyl acetate. In the case of CAB films adsorbed from ethyl acetate and acetone were similar. Dewetting was observed by AFM only for CAP films prepared from ethyl acetate. Positive values of effective Hamaker constant (A(eff)) were found only for CAP prepared from ethyl acetate, corroborating with dewetting phenomena observed by AFM. Oil the contrary, negative values of A(eff) were determined for CAP and CAB prepared from acetone and for CAB prepared from ethyl acetate, Corroborating with experimental observations. Sum frequency generation (SFG) vibrational spectra indicated that CAP and CAB films prepared from ethyl acetate present more alkyl groups oriented perpendicularly to the polymer-air interface than those films prepared from acetone. Such preferential orientation corroborates with macroscopic contact angle measurements. Moreover, SFG spectra showed that acetone hinds strongly to Si wafers, creating a new surface for CAP and CAB films. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thermodynamic characterization of the palm tree Roystonea regia peroxidase stability

The structural stability of a peroxidase, a dimeric protein from royal palm tree (Roystonea regia) leaves, has been characterized by high-sensitivity differential scanning calorimetry, circular dichroism, steady-state tryptophan fluorescence and analytical ultracentifugation under different solvent conditions. It is shown that the thermal and chemical (using guanidine hydrochloride (Gdn-HCl)) folding/unfolding of royal palm tree peroxidase (RPTP) at pH 7 is a reversible process involving a highly cooperative transition between the folded dimer and unfolded monomers, with a free stabilization energy of about 23 kcal per mol of monomer at 25 degrees C. The structural stability of RPTP is pH-dependent. At pH 3, where ion pairs have disappeared due to protonation, the thermally induced denaturation of RPTP is irreversible and strongly dependent upon the scan rate, suggesting that this process is under kinetic control. Moreover, thermally induced transitions at this pH value are dependent on the protein concentration, allowing it to be concluded that in solution RPTP behaves as dimer, which undergoes thermal denaturation coupled with dissociation. Analysis of the kinetic parameters of RPTP denaturation at pH 3 was accomplished on the basis of the simple kinetic scheme N ->(k) D, where k is a first-order kinetic constant that changes with temperature, as given by the Arrhenius equation; N is the native state, and D is the denatured state, and thermodynamic information was obtained by extrapolation of the kinetic transition parameters to an infinite heating rate. Obtained in this way, the value of RPTP stability at 25 degrees C is ca. 8 kcal per mole of monomer lower than at pH 7. In all probability, this quantity reflects the contribution of ion pair interactions to the structural stability of RPTP. From a comparison of the stability of RPTP with other plant peroxidases it is proposed that one of the main factors responsible for the unusually high stability of RPTP which enhances its potential use for biotechnological purposes, is its dimerization. (c) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Efficient and low cost devices for solar energy conversion: Efficiency and stability of some natural-dye-sensitized solar cells

Dye-sensitized solar cells, named by us Dye-Cells, are one of the most promising devices for solar energy conversion due to their reduced production cost and low environmental impact, especially those sensitized by natural dyes. The efficiency and stability of devices based on natural sensitizers such as mulberry (Morus alba Lam), blueberry (Vaccinium myrtillus Lam), and jaboticaba`s skin (Mirtus cauliflora Mart) were investigated. Dye-Cells prepared with aqueous mulberry extract presented the highest P(max) value (1.6 mW cm(-2)) with J(sc) = 6.14 mA cm(-2) and V(oc) = 0.49 V, Photoelectrochemical parameters of 16 cm(2) active area devices sensitized by mulberry dye were constant for 14 weeks of continuous evaluation. Moreover, the cell remained stable even after 36 weeks with a fairly good efficiency. Therefore, mulberry dye opens up a perspective of commercial feasibility for inexpensive and environmentally friendly Dye-Cells. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

B-chromosome frequency stability in Prochilodus lineatus (Characiformes, Prochilodontidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cation-oxygen interaction and oxygen stability in CaCu3Ti4O12 and CdCu3Ti4O12 lattices

The cubic perovskite related material CaCu3Ti4O12 has attracted a great deal of attention due to the high values of the static dielectric constant, of order 104, approximately constant in the temperature range 100-600 K. The substitution of Ca by Cd results in a similar temperature dependence but a static dielectric constant more than one order of magnitude lower. A theoretical electronic structure study is performed on CaCu3Ti4O12 (CCTO) and CdCu3Ti4O12 (CdCTO) using a tight binding with overlap method. Although the calculations are performed in a paramagnetic configuration, excellent agreement with experiment was found for the calculated band gap of CCTO. In spite of the fact that the band structures of both systems look practically the same, a significant difference is found in the calculated bond strength of Ca-O and Cd-O pairs, driven by the presence of Ti, with Ca-O interaction in CCTO loosened with respect to Cd-O interaction in the cadmium compound. It is suggested that O vacancies are more easily formed in CCTO, this being related to the lower electronegativity of Ca as compared to Cd. The formation of oxygen vacancies could be the origin of the difference in the static dielectric constant of the two compounds.

Electrochemical stability of anodic titanium oxide films grown at potentials higher than 3 V in a simulated physiological solution

The cathodic behaviour of oxides formed on titanium electrodes in physiological solutions at potentials between 3 and 5 V (vs. SCE) was studied by cyclic voltammetry. In case of anodic polarization at potentials higher than 3 V (vs. SCE), a cathodic peak at similar to 0.4 V (vs. SCE) appears in the cathodic scan, which could be due to the reduction of unstable peroxides. The results show that this peak depends on the anodic potential and the oxidation time. This behaviour supposedly is due to the formation of unstable titanium peroxides like TiO3 during anodization. Based on repetitive oxidation-reduction processes can be concluded that the created amount of TiO3 inside of the TiO2 surface layer seems to be constant. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relationship between differential equations with piecewise constant argument and the associated discrete equations, via dichotomic maps

Dichotomic maps are considered by means of the stability and asymptotic stability of the null solution of a class of differential equations with argument [t] via associated discrete equations, where [.] designates the greatest integer function.

Micellar modification of drug stability: analysis of the effect of hexadecyltrimethylammonium halides on the rate of degradation of cephaclor

The intra- and intermolecular rates of degradation of cephaclor were determined with and without hexadecyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTABr). Micellar-derived spectral shifts were used to measure the association of the ionic forms as well as to determine the effect of CTABr on the apparent acid dissociation constant of the antibiotic. The rate of degradation of cephaclor increased with detergent and was salt sensitive. Micellar effects were analyzed quantitatively within the frame-work of the speudophase ion exchange model. All experimental data were fitted to this model which was used to predict the combined effects of pH and detergent concentration. Micelles increased the rate of OH- attack on cephaclor; most of the effect was due to the concentration of reagents in the micellar pseudophase. The intramolecular degradation was catalyzed 25-fold by micelles, and a working hypothesis to rationalize this effect is proposed. The results demonstrate that quantitative analysis can be utilized to assess and predict effects of detergents on drug stability.

The stability evolution of a family of simply periodic lunar orbits

The present work deals with a family of simply periodic orbits around the Moon in the rotating Earth Moon-particle system. Taking the framework of the planar, circular, restricted three-body problem, we follow the evolution of this family of periodic orbits using the numerical technique of Poincaré surface of section. The maximum amplitude of oscillation about the periodic orbits are determined and can be used as a parameter to measure the degree of stability in the phase space for such orbits. Despite the fact that the whole family of periodic orbits remain stable, there is a dichotomy in the quasi-periodic ones at the Jacobi constant Cj = 2.85. The quasi-periodic orbits with Cj < 2.85 oscillate around the periodic orbits in a different way from those with Cj > 2.85. © 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.