Migration, unemployment and trade

Migration, Unemployment and Trade focuses on the issues of migration, welfare and unemployment in a trade and development framework. Several chapters of the book analyze the implications of internal labor mobility in a model designed to highlight its implications for regional welfare, urban unemployment, rural-urban dichotomy and structural adjustment. An important innovation in this work is the disaggregation of the economy and the use of separate utility functions to highlight non-homogeneity of preferences. The book also deals with international mobility of factors in different frameworks. In particular it concentrates on the highly emotive issue of legal and illegal migration. Thus this work incorporates interesting and important features of labor economics and factor mobility into trade and distortion theory.

Teacher subject specialisms and their relationships to learning styles, psychological types and multiple intelligences: implications for course development

This study explores issues in teacher education that increase our understanding of, and response to, the individual differences displayed by learners. A large undergraduate teacher education cohort provided evidence of the range and distribution of preferences in learning styles, psychological types and multiple intelligences. This information revealed that distributions of scores on the Kolb Learning Style Inventory, the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, and the Multiple Intelligences Checklist for Adults provide evidence about the scope and range of differences between four teacher subject specialisms. This rich information about those participating in teacher education courses provides some guidance for educating those with their own clear preferences to the range of different preferences expressed by many other learners and highlights the existence of four sets of major differences in approaches to teaching and learning in prospective teachers.

Modelling regular and estimable inverse demand systems : a distance function approach

To be useful for policy simulation in the current climate of rapid structural change, inverse demand systems must remain regular over substanstial variations in quantities. The distance function is a convenient vehicle for generating such systems. It also allows convenient imposition of prior ideas about the structure of preferences required for realistic policy work. While the distance function directly yields Hicksian inverse demand functions via the Shepard-Hanoch lemma, they are usually explicit in the unobservable level of utility (u), but lack a closed-form representation in terms of the observable variables. Note however that the unobservability of u need not hinder estimation. A simple one-dimensional numerical inversion allows the estimation of the distance function via the parameters of the implied Marshallian inverse demand functions. This paper develops the formal theory for using distance functions in this context, and reports on initial trials on the operational feasibility of the method.

A two-stage dynamic group decision making method for processing ordinal information

In group decision making (GDM) problems, ordinal data provide a convenient way of articulating preferences from decision makers (DMs). A number of GDM models have been proposed to aggregate such kind of preferences in the literature. However, most of the GDM models that handle ordinal preferences suffer from two drawbacks: (1) it is difficult for the GDM models to manage conflicting opinions, especially with a large number of DMs; and (2) the relationships between the preferences provided by the DMs are neglected, and all DMs are assumed to be of equal importance, therefore causing the aggregated collective preference not an ideal representative of the group's decision. In order to overcome these problems, a two-stage dynamic group decision making method for aggregating ordinal preferences is proposed in this paper. The method consists of two main processes: (i) a data cleansing process, which aims to reduce the influence of conflicting opinions pertaining to the collective decision prior to the aggregation process; as such an effective solution for undertaking large-scale GDM problems is formulated; and (ii) a support degree oriented consensus-reaching process, where the collective preference is aggregated by using the Power Average (PA) operator; as such, the relationships of the arguments being aggregated are taken into consideration (i.e., allowing the values being aggregated to support each other). A new support function for the PA operator to deal with ordinal information is defined based on the dominance-based rough set approach. The proposed GDM model is compared with the models presented by Herrera-Viedma et al. An application related to controlling the degradation of the hydrographic basin of a river in Brazil is evaluated. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method in handling GDM problems with ordinal information.

A estrutura de decisão do operador de transporte de cargas pelo usuário varejista de pequeno porte

Este trabalho tem por objetivo investigar e identificar a influência dos atributos que estruturam a escolha do transportador de carga geral fracionada pelos usuários, em uma determinada rota nacional, baseado na modelagem da demanda. xii A modelagem da demanda é efetuada com base em Modelos Comportamentais Desagregados, utilizando-se as técnicas de Preferência Declarada (Stated Preference), na obtenção dos dados. A determinação das preferências dos decisores são analisadas, buscandose assim quantificar o valor das variáveis que compõem o nível de serviço desejado pelos varejistas usuários. O estudo enfoca o comportamento do varejista usuário de serviços de transporte de cargas com relação a tomada de decisão sobre a transportadora que executará o serviço de transporte de carga. Esta tomada de decisão do varejista usuário leva em consideração que cada operador valoriza os atributos em diferentes graus e que estes fazem parte do nível de serviço de cada transportadora. As técnicas de Preferência Declarada forneceram dados para estimar as funções de Utilidade levando em consideração os diferentes níveis de atributos de cada transportadora. A partir da função de Utilidade de cada transportadora, é estimada a probabilidade de escolha de cada transportadora. A modelagem permite a realização de simulações, a partir de alterações no grau dos atributos das variáveis do modelo, na qual se determinará a parcela de mercado de cada transportadora e a sua respectiva participação no mercado em estudo. Dentre os principais resultados, pode se observar que a modelagem da demanda em transporte de cargas, apesar de pouco utilizada, é coerente com a realidade analisada, validando a metodologia utilizada neste estudo.

Porque favorecer firmas nacionais?

In this paper we offer a rationale for the existence of preferences for domestic…rms in government procurement. When the domestic…rm’s probability of completion of a government contract is larger than the foreign …rms probability of completion, the government should favor domestic…rms in order to maximize the expected net bene…tof the project. We compute the…rms’ equilibrium strategies for a lowest offer procurement auction. We also compute numerically the level of preferences that maximizes the government’s net expected bene…t under different parameter values.

A competitive growth model with endogenous fertility

This paper investigates the interaction between endogenous fertility behavior and the distribution of income and wealth arnong farnilies in a competitive market economy. We construct a growth model in which altruistic dynasties are heterogeneous in their initial stocks of physical capital. Dynasties make choices of farnily size along with decisions about consumption and intergenerational transfers. We show that if the rate of time preference is increasing in the number of children and preferences over nurnber of children satisfy a norrnality assumption, all steady states are characterized by equality of capital stocks and consumption arnong families. We also provide sufficient conditions for uniqueness of the steady state. In order to illustrate these results, we present an example in which preferences over number of children are logarithrnic and the technology is Cobb-Douglas. For this combination of preferences and technology, there exists a unique egalitarian steady state. Moreover, the economy converges to this steady state in only one generation .

Modelagem da decisão por pacotes de viagem: um estudo usando processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

The objective of this dissertation is to propose a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used by the costumers of the travel agencies and help them to choose the best package travel. The main objective is to contribute for the simplification of the travel package decision choice from the identification of the models of values and preference of the customers and applying them to the existing package. It is used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to structuralize a decision hierarchic model composed by six criteria (package cost, hotel category, security of the city, travel time, direct flight and position in ranking of the 10 most visited destination) and five real alternatives of packages for a holiday of three days created from travel agency data. The decision analysis was realized for the choice of a travel package by a group composed by two couples that regularly travels together, to which was asked to do a pairwise judgment of the criteria and the alternatives. The mains results show that, although been a group that travels together, there are different models of values in the weights of the criteria and a certain convergence in the scales of preferences of the alternatives in the criteria. It was not pointed a dominant alternative for all the members of the group separately, but an analysis of a total utility of the group shows a classification and an order of the travel packages and an alternative clearly in front of the others. The sensitivity analysis revels that there are changes in the ranking, but the two alternatives best classified in the normal analysis are the same ones in the sensitivity analysis, although with the positions changed. The analysis also led to a simplification of the process with the exclusion of alternatives dominated for the others ones. As main conclusion, it is evaluated that the model and method suggested allow a simplification of the decision process in the choice of travel packages

Preferências e escolhas românticas entre universitários

Several studies have found different patterns of preferences to men and women for short term and long term relationship romantic partners. It is known that the preferences vary with the sex of individuals, the expected involvement level of the relationship and according to the perceptions that subjects have about themselves. In the present study, we investigate whether the preferences typically founded for sexes are also founded between Brazilian undergraduate students. We also investigated if the individuals choose partners in accord of the sex preferences and if the ideal preferences are really expressed in real choices. For these investigations, 370 undergraduate students described profiles of an ideal partner for a short-term and a long-term relationship, through the joint evaluation of nine characteristics. Each ideal s profile has been described over three simulations, in which the amount of points available to be invested were limited and gradually reduced. After the descriptions of these profiles, the participants described the current or previous partner (if they were not in a relationship) and performed a self-assessment with the same characteristics used in the description of preferences. Overall, the results obtained in several countries were observed in Brazil. For short-term relationships men prioritize physical attributes and women value physical and personal attributes. For long-term, personal traits gained in importance on masculine preferences and women emphasized personal traits and the partner disposition to acquire resources. We also identified similar preferences profiles for both sexes and that the romantic preferences reflect similarities with the own individual s characteristics, in addition to the typical sexual preferences expected for the Parental Investment Theory. When evaluated their real partners, men considerate them more physically attractive than themselves but less intelligent, good humorous and ambi tion/willing to work. Women, in turn, described their partners as good as them. Finally, we observed equivalence between characteristics of the subjects and those of its partners, this effect being more pronounced among men. The last partners were described only as less sincere. The interpretation of the most part of our results was possible from evolutionist s and socio-cultural s explanations and was discussed under the two perspectives. We conclude this study stressing that the traditional romantic preferences occur in Brazil and that the sex, the kind of relationship and the vision that people have about their own characteristics affect the preferences, which are expressed in the real partner choices

United States-Latin America and the Caribbean trade developments, 2002

This document provides an overview of the most relevant developments in United States trade policy relating to Latin America and the Caribbean in 2002. U.S. policy continued to promote trade liberalization through advancing negotiations on multiple fronts- globally (WTO), regionally (FTAA) and bilaterally or sub regionally- with a view that the various negotiations are mutually reinforcing and seek to create a constructive competition for liberalization" among trade partners. The passage of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) included in the Trade Act of August 2002 enhanced the U.S. Administration's ability to negotiate trade agreements. It provided an impetus to conclude bilateral negotiations with Chile as well as to advance a number of trade agreements currently under negotiation, including negotiations toward the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and bilateral negotiations with Central America. The Trade Act also renewed the Generalized System of Preferences, extended the Caribbean Trade Partnership Act by liberalizing apparel provisions and augmented the Andean Trade Preference Act, increasing the list of duty free products. On the multilateral front, in partial fulfillment of the Doha mandate, the U.S. tabled in 2002 two comprehensive proposals for the reduction of trade barriers on agricultural and non-agricultural goods. Along with these trade liberalizing proposals, the U.S. Administration imposed temporary safeguard measures on key steel products to provide relief to the sectors of the steel industry that have been most affected by import surges. In addition, the U.S. Congress passed the 2002 Farm Security and Rural Investment Act that substantially increased U.S. domestic farm subsidies to shield domestic farm producers from competition from subsidized products from abroad."

Etnoecologia, pesca e manejo comunitário de quelônios aquáticos na várzea do Baixo rio Amazonas

O presente estudo descreve, registra e compara estratégias de pesca e manejo comunitário de quelônios aquáticos em três comunidades da várzea de Santarém. Avaliou-se também o consumo de quelônios, incluindo preferências, rejeições e tabus alimentares, e uso destes como recursos terapêuticos na medicina popular. As técnicas de pesca de quelônios empregadas foram descritas, compreendendo variações espacial e sazonal de uso e espécies capturadas e seletividade das técnicas fundamentadas nos saberes locais. Analisaram-se ainda o rendimento das pescarias e as relações entre investimento e retorno das mesmas. Os dados foram coletados entre junho de 2007 a julho de 2008. Realizaram-se conversas informais, acompanhamento das atividades pesqueiras e observação participante nas comunidades. Entrevistas semi-estruturadas também foram realizadas adotando-se o método recordatório alimentar, monitoramento do consumo anual de quelônios e recordações das últimas pescarias de quelônios. Os primeiros relatos de manejo de quelônios na Amazônia são datados da época do contato entre populações ameríndias e europeias. Na década de 70 ações do governo brasileiro foram implementadas fundamentadas no gerenciamento centralizado no poder do Estado. Hoje, práticas de comanejo de quelônios ocorrem em vários lugares na Amazônia, como nas comunidades Ilha de São Miguel, Costa do Aritapera e Água Preta. Mesmo pautados na demanda comunitária os manejos dessas três comunidades apresentam perspectivas diferenciadas em virtude do variado grau de experiência com sistemas de manejo comunitário. A Ilha de São Miguel já realiza o manejo de quelônios há cerca de 40 anos com certo grau de sucesso, enquanto na Água Preta o co-manejo vem sendo estabelecido há 22 anos de forma menos rigorosa e na Costa do Aritapera não se obteve êxito em sua recente implementação. De modo geral, a inclusão dos principais usuários dos recursos naturais em seu manejo ainda se constitui uma tarefa de difícil execução. O grande desafio para o manejo de quelônios e outros recursos da fauna cinegética na Amazônia é o reconhecimento legal de seu uso. O consumo de quelônios é uma tradição enraizada na cultura amazônica, entretanto é criminalizado, constrangendo a maior parte da população a assumir seu uso. Por ser considerada atividade ilegal não há estimativas da quantidade de animais explorados, tornando difícil a implantação de formas de manejo comunitário sustentáveis. Percebeu-se na dieta dos ribeirinhos desse estudo a participação de peixe como principal fonte de proteína animal, enquanto o consumo de quelônios registrado foi relativamente pequeno. Constataram-se diferenças quanto às espécies de quelônios consumidas. Em geral, tracajá (Podocnemis unifilis) (carne e ovos) configura-se como quelônio mais consumido nas três comunidades, sendo a pitiu (Podocnemis sextuberculata) (carne e ovos) consumida principalmente na Costa do Aritapera. As tartarugas (Podocnemis expansa) são pouco utilizadas, não houve registros de coleta de seus ovos, sendo sua carne consumida principalmente na Ilha de São Miguel. Tais variações podem estar relacionadas à combinação de fatores ecológicos e ao histórico do manejo presentes em cada comunidade. Não foram observadas diferenças culturais nas comunidades estudadas quanto ao uso de quelônios. Tartaruga é a espécie mais rejeitada, usada principalmente na medicina popular; tracajá e pitiu em geral são os quelônios preferidos, sendo os três considerados reimosos (animais sujeitos a tabus alimentares em algumas circunstâncias, como doenças, menstruação, gravidez e pós-parto). A espécie mais capturada foi o tracajá, seguindo-se a pitiu e em menor proporção a tartaruga. O tracajá é encontrado em vários ambientes, sendo coletado durante o ano todo nas três comunidades; pitius são capturadas principalmente na Costa do Aritapera no período da seca e da vazante, quando estão concentradas durante a migração ao saírem das áreas inundáveis em direção aos rios e às praias de desova, enquanto tartarugas são pescadas nos lagos protegidos da Ilha de São Miguel, na enchente e na cheia. As técnicas de pesca apresentam uso diferenciado em função do nível do rio. Os pescadores reconhecem tais variações sazonais, as quais aliadas a um conjunto de saberes locais são utilizadas na seleção das técnicas de pesca de quelônios. A pesca de quelônios é realizada em geral de modo oportuno, durante as pescarias de peixes. O rendimento das pescarias de quelônio foi maior quando estas não incluíram a captura de peixes e quando realizadas com uso da mão. O rendimento com base na CPUE_N diferiu entre as comunidades estudadas e entre os períodos de pesca, porém não houve diferença significativa no rendimento das pescarias entre esses parâmetros quando a biomassa foi utilizada nos cálculos de CPUE. O pescador, em geral, não está preocupado em maximizar seu rendimento, já que a maior parte das pescarias não se destina a comercialização. O rendimento, desta forma, acaba refletindo mais o acerto de um bom local de pesca do que o esforço de deslocamento empregado na mesma.Quando a mancha era boa os pescadores gastavam pouco tempo, enquanto em manchas menos produtivas gastavam mais tempo. Alguns pontos a serem adotados com vistas à concretização e sucesso do manejo comunitário são sugeridos nesse estudo: (1) definição clara dos direitos de acesso aos recursos e das sanções em caso de infração dos acordos; (2) estabelecimento de programas de capacitação de lideranças comunitárias; (3) criação de um fundo comunitário para desenvolvimento de outras atividades econômicas e investimento na melhoria da qualidade de vida dos moradores e nas próprias ações envolvidas no manejo; (4) reconhecimento e uso do conhecimento ecológico local e do direito de se utilizar o recurso; (5) ampliação regional do modelo comunitário para outras áreas, considerando que algumas espécies realizam grandes migrações; (6) monitoramento das populações exploradas; (7) avaliação periódica da efetivação do manejo e seu papel para os moradores locais; (8) repartição dos benefícios entre os comunitários. No caso específico dos quelônios recomendam-se também a proteção de outros ambientes além das áreas de nidificação e a determinação de um sistema de cotas voltado ao aproveitamento de ovos que seriam perdidos com possibilidade de comercialização para criadores.

Mikro- versus Makroperspektive der retributiven Gerechtigkeit, Strafziele und die Forderung nach Strafe

Wie Personen auf Straftaten reagieren und welche Strafziele sie dabei verfolgen, war bisher kaum Gegenstand psychologischer Forschung. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird die dimensionale Struktur der Präferenz von Strafzielen untersucht. In zwei Befragungen wurden juristischen Laien Fallgeschichten zur Beurteilung vorgelegt (Raubüberfall, Körperverletzung, Betrug, Vergewaltigung). Die multivariaten Auswertungen weisen eine hohe Übereinstimmung auf: Strafziele lassen sich durch die zwei voneinander unabhängigen Dimensionen Strafhärte und Mikro- versus Makroperspektive klassifizieren. Wird eine Makroperspektive eingenommen, so ist dies mit einer stärkeren Gewichtung von Gesellschaftsinteressen verbunden sowie mit der Präferenz für das Strafziel der positiven Generalprävention. Die Mikroperspektive ist hingegen mit der Überzeugung verbunden, dass Gerechtigkeit insbesondere aus der Perspektive der konkret Beteiligten herzustellen ist. Je nach geforderter Strafhärte geht die Mikroperspektive mit einem Bias entweder für das Opfer und das Strafziel der Vergeltung oder aber für den Täter und das Strafziel der Resozialisierung einher.

Modelado de sistemas multimedia para personalización y recomendación híbrida a partir del consumo audiovisual de los usuarios

This doctoral thesis focuses on the modeling of multimedia systems to create personalized recommendation services based on the analysis of users’ audiovisual consumption. Research is focused on the characterization of both users’ audiovisual consumption and content, specifically images and video. This double characterization converges into a hybrid recommendation algorithm, adapted to different application scenarios covering different specificities and constraints. Hybrid recommendation systems use both content and user information as input data, applying the knowledge from the analysis of these data as the initial step to feed the algorithms in order to generate personalized recommendations. Regarding the user information, this doctoral thesis focuses on the analysis of audiovisual consumption to infer implicitly acquired preferences. The inference process is based on a new probabilistic model proposed in the text. This model takes into account qualitative and quantitative consumption factors on the one hand, and external factors such as zapping factor or company factor on the other. As for content information, this research focuses on the modeling of descriptors and aesthetic characteristics, which influence the user and are thus useful for the recommendation system. Similarly, the automatic extraction of these descriptors from the audiovisual piece without excessive computational cost has been considered a priority, in order to ensure applicability to different real scenarios. Finally, a new content-based recommendation algorithm has been created from the previously acquired information, i.e. user preferences and content descriptors. This algorithm has been hybridized with a collaborative filtering algorithm obtained from the current state of the art, so as to compare the efficiency of this hybrid recommender with the individual techniques of recommendation (different hybridization techniques of the state of the art have been studied for suitability). The content-based recommendation focuses on the influence of the aesthetic characteristics on the users. The heterogeneity of the possible users of these kinds of systems calls for the use of different criteria and attributes to create effective recommendations. Therefore, the proposed algorithm is adaptable to different perceptions producing a dynamic representation of preferences to obtain personalized recommendations for each user of the system. The hypotheses of this doctoral thesis have been validated by conducting a set of tests with real users, or by querying a database containing user preferences - available to the scientific community. This thesis is structured based on the different research and validation methodologies of the techniques involved. In the three central chapters the state of the art is studied and the developed algorithms and models are validated via self-designed tests. It should be noted that some of these tests are incremental and confirm the validation of previously discussed techniques. Resumen Esta tesis doctoral se centra en el modelado de sistemas multimedia para la creación de servicios personalizados de recomendación a partir del análisis de la actividad de consumo audiovisual de los usuarios. La investigación se focaliza en la caracterización tanto del consumo audiovisual del usuario como de la naturaleza de los contenidos, concretamente imágenes y vídeos. Esta doble caracterización de usuarios y contenidos confluye en un algoritmo de recomendación híbrido que se adapta a distintos escenarios de aplicación, cada uno de ellos con distintas peculiaridades y restricciones. Todo sistema de recomendación híbrido toma como datos de partida tanto información del usuario como del contenido, y utiliza este conocimiento como entrada para algoritmos que permiten generar recomendaciones personalizadas. Por la parte de la información del usuario, la tesis se centra en el análisis del consumo audiovisual para inferir preferencias que, por lo tanto, se adquieren de manera implícita. Para ello, se ha propuesto un nuevo modelo probabilístico que tiene en cuenta factores de consumo tanto cuantitativos como cualitativos, así como otros factores de contorno, como el factor de zapping o el factor de compañía, que condicionan la incertidumbre de la inferencia. En cuanto a la información del contenido, la investigación se ha centrado en la definición de descriptores de carácter estético y morfológico que resultan influyentes en el usuario y que, por lo tanto, son útiles para la recomendación. Del mismo modo, se ha considerado una prioridad que estos descriptores se puedan extraer automáticamente de un contenido sin exigir grandes requisitos computacionales y, de tal forma que se garantice la posibilidad de aplicación a escenarios reales de diverso tipo. Por último, explotando la información de preferencias del usuario y de descripción de los contenidos ya obtenida, se ha creado un nuevo algoritmo de recomendación basado en contenido. Este algoritmo se cruza con un algoritmo de filtrado colaborativo de referencia en el estado del arte, de tal manera que se compara la eficiencia de este recomendador híbrido (donde se ha investigado la idoneidad de las diferentes técnicas de hibridación del estado del arte) con cada una de las técnicas individuales de recomendación. El algoritmo de recomendación basado en contenido que se ha creado se centra en las posibilidades de la influencia de factores estéticos en los usuarios, teniendo en cuenta que la heterogeneidad del conjunto de usuarios provoca que los criterios y atributos que condicionan las preferencias de cada individuo sean diferentes. Por lo tanto, el algoritmo se adapta a las diferentes percepciones y articula una metodología dinámica de representación de las preferencias que permite obtener recomendaciones personalizadas, únicas para cada usuario del sistema. Todas las hipótesis de la tesis han sido debidamente validadas mediante la realización de pruebas con usuarios reales o con bases de datos de preferencias de usuarios que están a disposición de la comunidad científica. La diferente metodología de investigación y validación de cada una de las técnicas abordadas condiciona la estructura de la tesis, de tal manera que los tres capítulos centrales se estructuran sobre su propio estudio del estado del arte y los algoritmos y modelos desarrollados se validan mediante pruebas autónomas, sin impedir que, en algún caso, las pruebas sean incrementales y ratifiquen la validación de técnicas expuestas anteriormente.

Nuevo paradigma para decisiones colectivas en entornos no competitivos

La tesis estudia uno de los aspectos más importantes de la gestión de la sociedad de la información: conocer la manera en que una persona valora cualquier situación. Esto es importante para el individuo que realiza la valoración y para el entorno con el que se relaciona. La valoración es el resultado de la comparación: se asignan los mismos valores a alternativas similares y mayores valores a alternativas mejor consideradas en el proceso de comparación. Los patrones que guían al individuo a la hora de hacer la comparación se derivan de sus preferencias individuales (es decir, de sus opiniones). En la tesis se presentan varios procedimientos para establecer las relaciones de preferencia entre alternativas de una persona. La valoración progresa hasta obtener una representación numérica de sus preferencias. Cuando la representación de preferencias es homogénea permite, además, contrastar las preferencias personales con las del resto de evaluadores, lo que favorece la evaluación de políticas, la transferencia de información entre diferentes individuos y el diseño de la alternativa que mejor se adapte a las preferencias identificadas. Al mismo tiempo, con esta información se pueden construir comunidades de personas con los mismos sistemas de preferencias ante una cuestión concreta. La tesis muestra un caso de aplicación de esta metodología: optimización de las políticas laborales en un mercado real. Para apoyar a los demandantes de empleo (en su iniciación o reincorporación al mundo laboral o en el cambio de su actividad) es necesario conocer sus preferencias respecto a las ocupaciones que están dispuestos a desempeñar. Además, para que la intermediación laboral sea efectiva, las ocupaciones buscadas deben de ser ofrecidas por el mercado de trabajo y el demandante debe reunir las condiciones para acceder a esas ocupaciones. El siguiente desarrollo de estos modelos nos lleva a los procedimientos utilizados para transformar múltiples preferencias en una decisión agregada y que consideran tanto la opinión de cada uno de los individuos que participan en la decisión como las interacciones sociales, todo ello dirigido a generar una solución que se ajuste lo mejor posible al punto de vista de toda la población. Las decisiones con múltiples participantes inciden, principalmente, en: el aumento del alcance para incorporar a personas que tradicionalmente no han sido consideradas en las tomas de decisiones, la agregación de las preferencias de los múltiples participantes en las tomas de decisiones colectivas (mediante votación, utilizando aplicaciones desarrolladas para la Web2.0 y a través de comparaciones interpersonales de utilidad) y, finalmente, la auto-organización para permitir que interaccionen entre si los participantes en la valoración, de forma que hagan que el resultado final sea mejor que la mera agregación de opiniones individuales. La tesis analiza los sistemas de e-democracia o herramientas para su implantación que tienen más más utilización en la actualidad o son más avanzados. Están muy relacionados con la web 2.0 y su implantación está suponiendo una evolución de la democracia actual. También se estudian aplicaciones de software de Colaboración en la toma de decisiones (Collaborative decision-making (CDM)) que ayudan a dar sentido y significado a los datos. Pretenden coordinar las funciones y características necesarias para llegar a decisiones colectivas oportunas, lo que permite a todos los interesados participar en el proceso. La tesis finaliza con la presentación de un nuevo modelo o paradigma en la toma de decisiones con múltiples participantes. El desarrollo se apoya en el cálculo de las funciones de utilidad empática. Busca la colaboración entre los individuos para que la toma de decisiones sea más efectiva, además pretende aumentar el número de personas implicadas. Estudia las interacciones y la retroalimentación entre ciudadanos, ya que la influencia de unos ciudadanos en los otros es fundamental para los procesos de toma de decisiones colectivas y de e-democracia. También incluye métodos para detectar cuando se ha estancado el proceso y se debe interrumpir. Este modelo se aplica a la consulta de los ciudadanos de un municipio sobre la oportunidad de implantar carriles-bici y las características que deben tomar. Se simula la votación e interacción entre los votantes. ABSTRACT The thesis examines one of the most important aspects of the management of the information society: get to know how a person values every situation. This is important for the individual performing the assessment and for the environment with which he interacts. The assessment is a result of the comparison: identical values are allocated to similar alternatives and higher values are assigned to those alternatives that are more favorably considered in the comparison process. Patterns that guide the individual in making the comparison are derived from his individual preferences (ie, his opinions). In the thesis several procedures to establish preference relations between alternatives a person are presented. The assessment progresses to obtain a numerical representation of his preferences. When the representation of preferences is homogeneous, it also allows the personal preferences of each individual to be compared with those of other evaluators, favoring policy evaluation, the transfer of information between different individuals and design the alternative that best suits the identified preferences. At the same time, with this information you can build communities of people with similar systems of preferences referred to a particular issue. The thesis shows a case of application of this methodology: optimization of labour policies in a real market. To be able support jobseekers (in their initiation or reinstatement to employment or when changing area of professional activity) is necessary to know their preferences for jobs that he is willing to perform. In addition, for labour mediation to be effective occupations that are sought must be offered by the labour market and the applicant must meet the conditions for access to these occupations. Further development of these models leads us to the procedures used to transform multiple preferences in an aggregate decision and consider both the views of each of the individuals involved in the decision and the social interactions, all aimed at generating a solution that best fits of the point of view of the entire population. Decisions with multiple participants mainly focus on: increasing the scope to include people who traditionally have not been considered in decision making, aggregation of the preferences of multiple participants in collective decision making (by vote, using applications developed for the Web 2.0 and through interpersonal comparisons of utility) and, finally, self-organization to allow participants to interact with each other in the assessment, so that the final result is better than the mere aggregation of individual opinions. The thesis analyzes the systems of e-democracy or tools for implementation which are more popular or more advanced. They are closely related to the Web 2.0 and its implementation is bringing an evolution of the current way of understanding democracy. We have also studied Collaborative Decision-Making (CDM)) software applications in decision-making which help to give sense and meaning to the data. They intend to coordinate the functions and features needed to reach adequate collective decisions, allowing all stakeholders to participate in the process. The thesis concludes with the presentation of a new model or paradigm in decision-making with multiple participants. The development is based on the calculation of the empathic utility functions. It seeks collaboration between individuals to make decision-making more effective; it also aims to increase the number of people involved. It studies the interactions and feedback among citizens, because the influence of some citizens in the other is fundamental to the process of collective decision-making and e-democracy. It also includes methods for detecting when the process has stalled and should be discontinued. This model is applied to the consultation of the citizens of a municipality on the opportunity to introduce bike lanes and characteristics they should have. Voting and interaction among voters is simulated.

Supporting decision-making for self-adaptive systems:from goal models to dynamic decision networks

Context/Motivation - Different modeling techniques have been used to model requirements and decision-making of self-adaptive systems (SASs). Specifically, goal models have been prolific in supporting decision-making depending on partial and total fulfilment of functional (goals) and non-functional requirements (softgoals). Different goalrealization strategies can have different effects on softgoals which are specified with weighted contribution-links. The final decision about what strategy to use is based, among other reasons, on a utility function that takes into account the weighted sum of the different effects on softgoals. Questions/Problems - One of the main challenges about decisionmaking in self-adaptive systems is to deal with uncertainty during runtime. New techniques are needed to systematically revise the current model when empirical evidence becomes available from the deployment. Principal ideas/results - In this paper we enrich the decision-making supported by goal models by using Dynamic Decision Networks (DDNs). Goal realization strategies and their impact on softgoals have a correspondence with decision alternatives and conditional probabilities and expected utilities in the DDNs respectively. Our novel approach allows the specification of preferences over the softgoals and supports reasoning about partial satisfaction of softgoals using probabilities. We report results of the application of the approach on two different cases. Our early results suggest the decision-making process of SASs can be improved by using DDNs. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.