Strategic development process and complex adaptive systems

The two areas of theory upon which this research was based were „strategy development process?(SDP) and „complex adaptive systems? (CAS), as part of complexity theory, focused on human social organisations. The literature reviewed showed that there is a paucity of empirical work and theory in the overlap of the two areas, providing an opportunity for contributions to knowledge in each area of theory, and for practitioners. An inductive approach was adopted for this research, in an effort to discover new insights to the focus area of study. It was undertaken from within an interpretivist paradigm, and based on a novel conceptual framework. The organisationally intimate nature of the research topic, and the researcher?s circumstances required a research design that was both in-depth and long term. The result was a single, exploratory, case study, which included use of data from 44 in-depth, semi-structured interviews, from 36 people, involving all the top management team members and significant other staff members; observations, rumour and grapevine (ORG) data; and archive data, over a 5½ year period (2005 – 2010). Findings confirm the validity of the conceptual framework, and that complex adaptive systems theory has potential to extend strategy development process theory. It has shown how and why the strategy process developed in the case study organisation by providing deeper insights to the behaviour of the people, their backgrounds, and interactions. Broad predictions of the „latent strategy development? process and some elements of the strategy content are also possible. Based on this research, it is possible to extend the utility of the SDP model by including peoples? behavioural characteristics within the organisation, via complex adaptive systems theory. Further research is recommended to test limits of the application of the conceptual framework and improve its efficacy with more organisations across a variety of sectors.

Classrooms as complex adaptive systems:a relational model

In this article, we describe and model the language classroom as a complex adaptive system (see Logan & Schumann, 2005). We argue that linear, categorical descriptions of classroom processes and interactions do not sufficiently explain the complex nature of classrooms, and cannot account for how classroom change occurs (or does not occur), over time. A relational model of classrooms is proposed which focuses on the relations between different elements (physical, environmental, cognitive, social) in the classroom and on how their interaction is crucial in understanding and describing classroom action.

Static and Dynamic Integrated Expert Systems: State of the Art, Problems and Trends

Systemized analysis of trends towards integration and hybridization in contemporary expert systems is conducted, and a particular class of applied expert systems, integrated expert systems, is considered. For this purpose, terminology, classification, and models, proposed by the author, are employed. As examples of integrated expert systems, Russian systems designed in this field and available to the majority of specialists are analyzed.

Using the Simulation Modeling Methods for the Designing Real-Time Integrated Expert Systems

Certain theoretical and methodological problems of designing real-time dynamical expert systems, which belong to the class of the most complex integrated expert systems, are discussed. Primary attention is given to the problems of designing subsystems for modeling the external environment in the case where the environment is represented by complex engineering systems. A specific approach to designing simulation models for complex engineering systems is proposed and examples of the application of this approach based on the G2 (Gensym Corp.) tool system are described.

Availability estimation and management for complex processing systems

“Availability” is the terminology used in asset intensive industries such as petrochemical and hydrocarbons processing to describe the readiness of equipment, systems or plants to perform their designed functions. It is a measure to suggest a facility’s capability of meeting targeted production in a safe working environment. Availability is also vital as it encompasses reliability and maintainability, allowing engineers to manage and operate facilities by focusing on one performance indicator. These benefits make availability a very demanding and highly desired area of interest and research for both industry and academia. In this dissertation, new models, approaches and algorithms have been explored to estimate and manage the availability of complex hydrocarbon processing systems. The risk of equipment failure and its effect on availability is vital in the hydrocarbon industry, and is also explored in this research. The importance of availability encouraged companies to invest in this domain by putting efforts and resources to develop novel techniques for system availability enhancement. Most of the work in this area is focused on individual equipment compared to facility or system level availability assessment and management. This research is focused on developing an new systematic methods to estimate system availability. The main focus areas in this research are to address availability estimation and management through physical asset management, risk-based availability estimation strategies, availability and safety using a failure assessment framework, and availability enhancement using early equipment fault detection and maintenance scheduling optimization.

Data Based Identification and Prediction of Nonlinear and Complex Dynamical Systems

We thank Dr. R. Yang (formerly at ASU), Dr. R.-Q. Su (formerly at ASU), and Mr. Zhesi Shen for their contributions to a number of original papers on which this Review is partly based. This work was supported by ARO under Grant No. W911NF-14-1-0504. W.-X. Wang was also supported by NSFC under Grants No. 61573064 and No. 61074116, as well as by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Beijing Nova Programme.

Functional application of lactic acid bacteria exopolysaccharide in complex food systems

Lactic acid bacteria expolysaccharides (LAB-EPS), in particular those formed from sucrose have the potential to improve food and beverage rheology and enhance their sensory properties potentially replacing or reducing expensive hydrocolloids currently used as improvers in food and beverage industries. Addition of sucrose not only enables EPS formation but also affects organic acid formation, thus influencing the sensory properties of the resulting food/beverage products. The first part of the study the organoleptic modulation of barley malt derived wort fermented using in situ produced bacterial polysaccharides has been investigated. Weisella cibaria MG1 was capable to produce exopolysaccharides during sucrosesupplemented barley malt derived wort fermentation. Even though the strain dominated the (sucrose-supplemented) wort fermentation, it was found to produce EPS (14.4 g l-1) with lower efficiency than in SucMRS (34.6 g l-1). Higher maltose concentration in wort led to the increased formation of oligosaccharide (OS) at the expense of EPS. Additionally, small amounts of organic acids were formed and ethanol remained below 0.5% (v/v). W. cibaria MG1 fermented worts supplemented with 5 or 10% sucrose displayed a shear-thinning behaviour indicating the formation of polymers. This report showed how novel and nutritious LAB fermented wort-base beverage with prospects for further advancements can be formulated using tailored microbial cultures. In the next step, the impact of exopolysaccharide-producing Weissella cibaria MG1 on the ability to improve rheological properties of fermented plant-based milk substitute plant based soy and quinoa grain was evaluated. W. cibaria MG1 grew well in soy milk, exceeding a cell count of log 8 cfu/g within 6 h of fermentation. The presence of W. cibaria MG1 led to a decrease in gelation and fermentation time. EPS isolated from soy yoghurts supplemented with sucrose were higher in molecular weight (1.1 x 108 g/mol vs 6.6 x 107 g/mol), and resulted in reduced gel stiffness (190 ± 2.89 Pa vs 244 ± 15.9 Pa). Soy yoghurts showed typical biopolymer gels structure and the network structure changed to larger pores and less cross-linking in the presence of sucrose and increasing molecular weight of the EPS. In situ investigation of Weissella cibaria MG1 producing EPS on quinoa-based milk was performed. The production of quinoa milk, starting from wholemeal quinoa flour, was optimised to maximise EPS production. On doing that, enzymatic destructuration of protein and carbohydrate components of quinoa milk was successfully achieved applying alpha-amylase and proteases treatments. Fermented wholemeal quinoa milk using Weissella cibaria MG1 showed high viable cell counts (>109 cfu/mL), a pH of 5.16, and significantly higher water holding capacity (WHC, 100 %), viscosity (> 0. 5 Pa s) and exopolysaccharide (EPS) amount (40 mg/L) than the chemically acidified control. High EPS (dextran) concentration in quinoa milk caused earlier aggregation because more EPS occupy more space, and the chenopodin were forced to interact with each other. Direct observation of microstructure in fermented quinoa milk indicated that the network structures of EPS-protein could improve the texture of fermented quinoa milk. Overall, Weissella cibaria MG1 showed favorable technology properties and great potential for further possible application in the development of high viscosity fermented quinoa milk. The last part of the study investigate the ex-situ LAB-EPS (dextran) application compared to other hydrocolloids as a novel food ingredient to compensate for low protein in biscuit and wholemeal wheat flour. Three hydrocolloids, xanthan gum, dextran and hydroxypropyl methylcellulose, were incorporated into bread recipes based on high-protein flours, low-protein flours and coarse wholemeal flour. Hydrocolloid levels of 0–5 % (flour basis) were used in bread recipes to test the water absorption. The quality parameters of dough (farinograph, extensograph, rheofermentometre) and bread (specific volume, crumb structure and staling profile) were determined. Results showed that xanthan had negative impact on the dough and bread quality characteristics. HPMC and dextran generally improved dough and bread quality and showed dosage dependence. Volume of low-protein flour breads were significantly improved by incorporation of 0.5 % of the latter two hydrocolloids. However, dextran outperformed HPMC regarding initial bread hardness and staling shelf life regardless the flour applied in the formulation.

Exploring complex chemical systems: insights from mass spectrometry, electrochemistry and continuous cell culture

The work presented herein covers a broad range of research topics and so, in the interest of clarity, has been presented in a portfolio format. Accordingly, each chapter consists of its own introductory material prior to presentation of the key results garnered, this is then proceeded by a short discussion on their significance. In the first chapter, a methodology to facilitate the resolution and qualitative assessment of very large inorganic polyoxometalates was designed and implemented employing ion-mobility mass spectrometry. Furthermore, the potential of this technique for ‘mapping’ the conformational space occupied by this class of materials was demonstrated. These claims are then substantiated by the development of a tuneable, polyoxometalate-based calibration protocol that provided the necessary platform for quantitative assessments of similarly large, but unknown, polyoxometalate species. In addition, whilst addressing a major limitation of travelling wave ion mobility, this result also highlighted the potential of this technique for solution-phase cluster discovery. The second chapter reports on the application of a biophotovoltaic electrochemical cell for characterising the electrogenic activity inherent to a number of mutant Synechocystis strains. The intention was to determine the key components in the photosynthetic electron transport chain responsible for extracellular electron transfer. This would help to address the significant lack of mechanistic understanding in this field. Finally, in the third chapter, the design and fabrication of a low-cost, highly modular, continuous cell culture system is presented. To demonstrate the advantages and suitability of this platform for experimental evolution investigations, an exploration into the photophysiological response to gradual iron limitation, in both the ancestral wild type and a randomly generated mutant library population, was undertaken. Furthermore, coupling random mutagenesis to continuous culture in this way is shown to constitute a novel source of genetic variation that is open to further investigation.

Physicochemical complexity in complex chemical systems

Self-replication and compartmentalization are two central properties thought to be essential for minimal life, and understanding how such processes interact in the emergence of complex reaction networks is crucial to exploring the development of complexity in chemistry and biology. Autocatalysis can emerge from multiple different mechanisms such as formation of an initiator, template self-replication and physical autocatalysis (where micelles formed from the reaction product solubilize the reactants, leading to higher local concentrations and therefore higher rates). Amphiphiles are also used in artificial life studies to create protocell models such as micelles, vesicles and oil-in-water droplets, and can increase reaction rates by encapsulation of reactants. So far, no template self-replicator exists which is capable of compartmentalization, or transferring this molecular scale phenomenon to micro or macro-scale assemblies. Here a system is demonstrated where an amphiphilic imine catalyses its own formation by joining a non-polar alkyl tail group with a polar carboxylic acid head group to form a template, which was shown to form reverse micelles by Dynamic Light Scattering (DLS). The kinetics of this system were investigated by 1H NMR spectroscopy, showing clearly that a template self-replication mechanism operates, though there was no evidence that the reverse micelles participated in physical autocatalysis. Active oil droplets, composed from a mixture of insoluble organic compounds in an aqueous sub-phase, can undergo processes such as division, self-propulsion and chemotaxis, and are studied as models for minimal cells, or protocells. Although in most cases the Marangoni effect is responsible for the forces on the droplet, the behaviour of the droplet depends heavily on the exact composition. Though theoretical models are able to calculate the forces on a droplet, to model a mixture of oils on an aqueous surface where compounds from the oil phase are dissolving and diffusing through the aqueous phase is beyond current computational capability. The behaviour of a droplet in an aqueous phase can only be discovered through experiment, though it is determined by the droplet's composition. By using an evolutionary algorithm and a liquid handling robot to conduct droplet experiments and decide which compositions to test next, entirely autonomously, the composition of the droplet becomes a chemical genome capable of evolution. The selection is carried out according to a fitness function, which ranks the formulation based on how well it conforms to the chosen fitness criteria (e.g. movement or division). Over successive generations, significant increases in fitness are achieved, and this increase is higher with more components (i.e. greater complexity). Other chemical processes such as chemiluminescence and gelation were investigated in active oil droplets, demonstrating the possibility of controlling chemical reactions by selective droplet fusion. Potential future applications for this might include combinatorial chemistry, or additional fitness goals for the genetic algorithm. Combining the self-replication and the droplet protocells research, it was demonstrated that the presence of the amphiphilic replicator lowers the interfacial tension between droplets of a reaction mixture in organic solution and the alkaline aqueous phase, causing them to divide. Periodic sampling by a liquid handling robot revealed that the extent of droplet fission increased as the reaction progressed, producing more individual protocells with increased self-replication. This demonstrates coupling of the molecular scale phenomenon of template self-replication to a macroscale physicochemical effect.

Estimating interactive coefficients for analysing interactive failures

Engineering assets are often complex systems. In a complex system, components often have failure interactions which lead to interactive failures. A system with interactive failures may lead to an increased failure probability. Hence, one may have to take the interactive failures into account when designing and maintaining complex engineering systems. To address this issue, Sun et al have developed an analytical model for the interactive failures. In this model, the degree of interaction between two components is represented by interactive coefficients. To use this model for failure analysis, the related interactive coefficients must be estimated. However, methods for estimating the interactive coefficients have not been reported. To fill this gap, this paper presents five methods to estimate the interactive coefficients including probabilistic method; failure data based analysis method; laboratory experimental method; failure interaction mechanism based method; and expert estimation method. Examples are given to demonstrate the applications of the proposed methods. Comparisons among these methods are also presented.

Functional programming based CACSD environment

An engineering design environment should allow users to design complex engineering systems, to manage and coordinate the designs as they proceed, and to develop and modify the software tools used for designs. These requirements call for a programming environment with an integrated set of software tools of different functionalities. The required functionalities are mainly: the provision of design algorithms based on suitable numeric software, appropriate data structures for the application area, a user-friendly interface, and the provision of a design database for the long term management of the designs generated. The provision of such an integrated design environment in a functional programming environment with particular emphasis on the provision of appropriate control-theoretic data structures and data model is described. Object-orientation is used to model entities in the application domain, which are represented by persistent objects in the database. Structural properties, relationships and operations on entities are modelled through objects and functions classified into strict types with inheritance semantics and a recursive structure.

Efficient parametric uncertainty analysis within the hybrid Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis method

This paper is concerned with the development of efficient algorithms for propagating parametric uncertainty within the context of the hybrid Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (FE/SEA) approach to the analysis of complex vibro-acoustic systems. This approach models the system as a combination of SEA subsystems and FE components; it is assumed that the FE components have fully deterministic properties, while the SEA subsystems have a high degree of randomness. The method has been recently generalised by allowing the FE components to possess parametric uncertainty, leading to two ensembles of uncertainty: a non-parametric one (SEA subsystems) and a parametric one (FE components). The SEA subsystems ensemble is dealt with analytically, while the effect of the additional FE components ensemble can be dealt with by Monte Carlo Simulations. However, this approach can be computationally intensive when applied to complex engineering systems having many uncertain parameters. Two different strategies are proposed: (i) the combination of the hybrid FE/SEA method with the First Order Reliability Method which allows the probability of the non-parametric ensemble average of a response variable exceeding a barrier to be calculated and (ii) the combination of the hybrid FE/SEA method with Laplace's method which allows the evaluation of the probability of a response variable exceeding a limit value. The proposed approaches are illustrated using two built-up plate systems with uncertain properties and the results are validated against direct integration, Monte Carlo simulations of the FE and of the hybrid FE/SEA models. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

基于代理模型的水下滑翔机机翼设计优化方法

在复杂工程系统的概念设计优化中,高精度数值分析方法得到广泛应用,将高精度数值分析与优化方法有机结合,对设计空间展开全面搜索与寻优,已经成为现代设计优化方法的重要发展方向。以水下滑翔机的概念设计为研究对象,引入代理模型,控制高精度分析试验的数量,有效地化解精度与效率之间的矛盾。将参数化几何建模、网格划分以及流体数值模拟分析集成为自动分析流程,并以此为基础采用试验设计理论,构建代理模型,解决水下滑翔机机翼的多目标设计优化问题。给出基于代理模型的设计优化过程,并系统地比较几种试验设计方法的适应性,重点讨论多项式响应面和径向基函数代理模型,所得代理模型相对误差小于2%。采用梯度寻优方法与遗传算法在给定设计空间内进行全面搜索,获得机翼的最佳平面构形,水下滑翔机的升阻比提高6.76%,俯仰力矩的绝对值由0.2760N•m降低为0.0015N•m,提高水下滑翔机的运动性能。

大型复杂工程系统研究开发中的方法论问题

本文通过大量事例说明了方法论对完成大型工程项目的重要意义,总结了工程技术中方法论的一般原理,并以此为指导,提出了大型自动化系统开发中的新思路。

System oriented neural networks - Problem formulation, methodology and application

A novel methodology is proposed for the development of neural network models for complex engineering systems exhibiting nonlinearity. This method performs neural network modeling by first establishing some fundamental nonlinear functions from a priori engineering knowledge, which are then constructed and coded into appropriate chromosome representations. Given a suitable fitness function, using evolutionary approaches such as genetic algorithms, a population of chromosomes evolves for a certain number of generations to finally produce a neural network model best fitting the system data. The objective is to improve the transparency of the neural networks, i.e. to produce physically meaningful