Towards a Better Modelling and Assessment of Construction Risk: Insights from a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.

Functional characterisation of putative Cis-Regulatory Risk Loci for breast cancer

Dissertação de Mestrado, Qualidade em Análises - Erasmus Mundus, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

Association of drug metabolism gene polymorphisms with toxicities, graft-versus-host disease and survival after HLA-identical sibling hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for patients with leukemia

Individual differences in drug efficacy or toxicity can be influenced by genetic factors. We investigated whether polymorphisms of pharmacogenes that interfere with metabolism of drugs used in conditioning regimen and graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) prophylaxis could be associated with outcomes after HLA-identical hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Pharmacogenes and their polymorphisms were studied in 107 donors and patients with leukemia receiving HSCT. Candidate genes were: P450 cytochrome family (CYP2B6), glutathione-S-transferase family (GST), multidrug-resistance gene, methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) and vitamin D receptor (VDR). The end points studied were oral mucositis (OM), hemorrhagic cystitis (HC), toxicity and venoocclusive disease of the liver (VOD), GvHD, transplantation-related mortality (TRM) and survival. Multivariate analyses, using death as a competing event, were performed adjusting for clinical factors. Among other clinical and genetic factors, polymorphisms of CYP2B6 genes that interfere with cyclophosphamide metabolism were associated with OM (recipient CYP2B6*4; P=0.0067), HC (recipient CYP2B6*2; P=0.03) and VOD (donor CYP2B6*6; P=0.03). Recipient MTHFR polymorphisms (C677T) were associated with acute GvHD (P=0.03), and recipient VDR TaqI with TRM and overall survival (P=0.006 and P=0.04, respectively). Genetic factors that interfere with drug metabolisms are associated with treatment-related toxicities, GvHD and survival after HLA-identical HSCT in patients with leukemia and should be investigated prospectively.

Projecto SIGAP: sistema de informação geográfica aplicado à Palentologia

Trabalho de projecto apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica.

Gender differences in HIV progression to AIDS and death in industrialized countries: slower disease progression following HIV seroconversion in women.

To evaluate sex differences in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression before (pre-1997) and after (1997-2006) introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy, the authors used data from a collaboration of 23 HIV seroconverter cohort studies from Europe, Australia, and Canada restricted to the 6,923 seroconverters infected through injecting drug use and sex between men and women. Within a competing risk framework, they used Cox proportional hazards models allowing for late entry to evaluate sex differences in time from HIV seroconversion to death, to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and to each first AIDS-defining disease and death without AIDS. While no significant sex differences were found before 1997, from 1997 onward, women had a lower risk of AIDS (adjusted cumulative relative risk (aCRR) = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63, 0.90) and death (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.82) than men did. Compared with men, women also had lower risks of AIDS dementia complex (aCRR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.74), tuberculosis (aCRR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.92), Kaposi's sarcoma (aCRR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.99), lymphomas (aCRR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.96), and death without AIDS (aCRR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.98). Sex differences in HIV disease progression have become larger and statistically significant in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy, supporting a stronger impact of health interventions among women.

Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation (ASCT) for Enteropathy-Associated T-Cell Lymphoma (EATL): Final Analysis of a Retrospective Study On the Behalf of Lymphoma Working Party (LWP) of the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT).

Background: EATL is a rare subtype of peripheral T-cell lymphomas characterized by primarily intestinal localization and a frequent association with celiac disease. The prognosis is considered to be poor with conventional chemotherapy. Limited data is available on the efficacy of ASCT in this lymphoma subtype. Primary objective: was to study the outcome of ASCT as a consolidation or salvage strategy for EATL. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Eligible patients were > 18 years who had received ASCT between 2000-2010 for EATL that was confirmed by review of written histopathology reports, and had sufficient information on disease history and follow-up available. The search strategy used the EBMT database to identify patients potentially fulfilling the eligibility criteria. An additional questionnaire was sent to individual transplant centres to confirm histological diagnosis (histopathology report or pathology review) as well as updated follow-up data. Patients and transplant characteristics were compared between groups using X2 test or Fisher's exact test for categorical variables and t-test or Mann-Whiney U-test for continuous variables. OS and PFS were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimate and compared by the log-rank test. Estimates for non-relapse mortality (NRM) and relapse or progression were calculated using cumulative incidence rates to accommodate competing risk and compared to Gray's test. Results: Altogether 138 patients were identified. Updated follow-up data was received from 74 patients (54 %) and histology report from 54 patients (39 %). In ten patients the diagnosis of EATL could not be adequately verified. Thus the final analysis included 44. There were 24 males and 20 females with a median age of 56 (35-72) years at the time of transplant. Twenty-five patients (57 %) had a history of celiac disease. Disease stage was I in nine patients (21 %), II in 14 patients (33 %) and IV in 19 patients (45 %). Twenty-four patients (55 %) were in the first CR or PR at the time of transplant. BEAM was used as a high-dose regimen in 36 patients (82 %) and all patients received peripheral blood grafts. The median follow-up for survivors was 46 (2-108) months from ASCT. Three patients died early from transplant-related reasons translating into a 2-year non-relapse mortality of 7 %. Relapse incidence at 4 years after ASCT was 39 %, with no events occurring beyond 2.5 years after ASCT. PFS and OS were 54 % and 59 % at four years, respectively. There was a trend for better OS in patients transplanted in the first CR or PR compared to more advanced disease status (70 % vs. 43 %, p=0.053). Of note, patients with a history of celiac disease had superior PFS (70 % vs. 35 %, p=0.02) and OS (70 % vs. 45 %, p=0.052) whilst age, gender, disease stage, B-symptoms at diagnosis or high-dose regimen were not associated with OS or PFS. Conclusions: This study shows for the first time in a larger patient sample that ASCT is feasible in selected patients with EATL and can yield durable disease control in a significant proportion of the patients. Patients transplanted in first CR or PR appear to do better than those transplanted later. ASCT should be considered in EATL patients responding to initial therapy.

Les coûts des dommages éléments naturels aux bâtiments et l'influence des facteurs du risque dans un contexte d'assurance immobilière : analyse de cas des innondations et de la grêle en Suisse

In Switzerland, the annual cost of damage by natural elements has been increasing for several years despite the introduction of protective measures. Mainly induced by material destruction building insurance companies have to pay the majority of this cost. In many European countries, governments and insurance companies consider prevention strategies to reduce vulnerability. In Switzerland, since 2004, the cost of damage due to natural hazards has surpassed the cost of damage due to fire; a traditional activity of the Cantonal Insurance company (EGA). Therefore, the strategy for efficient fire prevention incorporates a reduction of the vulnerability of buildings. The thesis seeks to illustrate the relevance of such an approach when applied to the damage caused by natural hazards. It examines the role of insurance place and its involvement in targeted prevention of natural disasters. Integrated risk management involves a faultless comprehension of all risk parameters The first part of the thesis is devoted to the theoretical development of the key concepts that influence risk management, such as: hazard, vulnerability, exposure or damage. The literature on this subject, very prolific in recent years, was taken into account and put in perspective in the context of this study. Among the risk parameters, it is shown in the thesis that vulnerability is a factor that we can influence efficiently in order to limit the cost of damage to buildings. This is confirmed through the development of an analysis method. This method has led to the development of a tool to assess damage to buildings by flooding. The tool, designed for the property insurer or owner, proposes several steps, namely: - Vulnerability and damage potential assessment; - Proposals for remedial measures and risk reduction from an analysis of the costs of a potential flood; - Adaptation of a global strategy in high-risk areas based on the elements at risk. The final part of the thesis is devoted to the study of a hail event in order to provide a better understanding of damage to buildings. For this, two samples from the available claims data were selected and analysed in the study. The results allow the identification of new trends A second objective of the study was to develop a hail model based on the available data The model simulates a random distribution of intensities and coupled with a risk model, proposes a simulation of damage costs for the determined study area. Le coût annuel des dommages provoqués par les éléments naturels en Suisse est conséquent et sa tendance est en augmentation depuis plusieurs années, malgré la mise en place d'ouvrages de protection et la mise en oeuvre de moyens importants. Majoritairement induit par des dégâts matériels, le coût est supporté en partie par les assurances immobilières en ce qui concerne les dommages aux bâtiments. Dans de nombreux pays européens, les gouvernements et les compagnies d'assurance se sont mis à concevoir leur stratégie de prévention en termes de réduction de la vulnérabilité. Depuis 2004, en Suisse, ce coût a dépassé celui des dommages dus à l'incendie, activité traditionnelle des établissements cantonaux d'assurance (ECA). Ce fait, aux implications stratégiques nombreuses dans le domaine public de la gestion des risques, résulte en particulier d'une politique de prévention des incendies menée efficacement depuis plusieurs années, notamment par le biais de la diminution de la vulnérabilité des bâtiments. La thèse, par la mise en valeur de données actuarielles ainsi que par le développement d'outils d'analyse, cherche à illustrer la pertinence d'une telle approche appliquée aux dommages induits par les phénomènes naturels. Elle s'interroge sur la place de l'assurance et son implication dans une prévention ciblée des catastrophes naturelles. La gestion intégrale des risques passe par une juste maîtrise de ses paramètres et de leur compréhension. La première partie de la thèse est ainsi consacrée au développement théorique des concepts clés ayant une influence sur la gestion des risques, comme l'aléa, la vulnérabilité, l'exposition ou le dommage. La littérature à ce sujet, très prolifique ces dernières années, a été repnse et mise en perspective dans le contexte de l'étude, à savoir l'assurance immobilière. Parmi les paramètres du risque, il est démontré dans la thèse que la vulnérabilité est un facteur sur lequel il est possible d'influer de manière efficace dans le but de limiter les coûts des dommages aux bâtiments. Ce raisonnement est confirmé dans un premier temps dans le cadre de l'élaboration d'une méthode d'analyse ayant débouché sur le développement d'un outil d'estimation des dommages aux bâtiments dus aux inondations. L'outil, destiné aux assurances immobilières, et le cas échéant aux propriétaires, offre plusieurs étapes, à savoir : - l'analyse de la vulnérabilité et le potentiel de dommages ; - des propositions de mesures de remédiation et de réduction du risque issues d'une analyse des coûts engendrés par une inondation potentielle; - l'adaptation d'une stratégie globale dans les zones à risque en fonction des éléments à risque. La dernière partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'étude d'un événement de grêle dans le but de fournir une meilleure compréhension des dommages aux bâtiments et de leur structure. Pour cela, deux échantillons ont été sélectionnés et analysés parmi les données de sinistres à disposition de l'étude. Les résultats obtenus, tant au niveau du portefeuille assuré que de l'analyse individuelle, permettent de dégager des tendances nouvelles. Un deuxième objectif de l'étude a consisté à élaborer une modélisation d'événements de grêle basée sur les données à disposition. Le modèle permet de simuler une distribution aléatoire des intensités et, couplé à un modèle d'estimation des risques, offre une simulation des coûts de dommages envisagés pour une zone d'étude déterminée. Les perspectives de ce travail permettent une meilleure focalisation du rôle de l'assurance et de ses besoins en matière de prévention.

Influence of IFNL3/4 Polymorphisms on the Incidence of Cytomegalovirus Infection After Solid-Organ Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Polymorphisms in IFNL3 and IFNL4, the genes encoding interferon λ3 and interferon λ4, respectively, have been associated with reduced hepatitis C virus clearance. We explored the role of such polymorphisms on the incidence of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection in solid-organ transplant recipients. METHODS: White patients participating in the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study in 2008-2011 were included. A novel functional TT/-G polymorphism (rs368234815) in the CpG region upstream of IFNL3 was investigated. RESULTS: A total of 840 solid-organ transplant recipients at risk for CMV infection were included, among whom 373 (44%) received antiviral prophylaxis. The 12-month cumulative incidence of CMV replication and disease were 0.44 and 0.08 cases, respectively. Patient homozygous for the minor rs368234815 allele (-G/-G) tended to have a higher cumulative incidence of CMV replication (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 1.30 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .97-1.74]; P = .07), compared with other patients (TT/TT or TT/-G). The association was significant among patients followed by a preemptive approach (SHR, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.01-2.12]; P = .047), especially in patients receiving an organ from a seropositive donor (SHR, 1.92 [95% CI, 1.30-2.85]; P = .001), but not among those who received antiviral prophylaxis (SHR, 1.13 [95% CI, .70-1.83]; P = .6). These associations remained significant in multivariate competing risk regression models. CONCLUSIONS: Polymorphisms in the IFNL3/4 region influence susceptibility to CMV replication in solid-organ transplant recipients, particularly in patients not receiving antiviral prophylaxis.

Mechanisms of Symptomatic Spinal Cord Ischemia After TEVAR: Insights From the European Registry of Endovascular Aortic Repair Complications (EuREC).

Abstract Purpose: To test the hypothesis that simultaneous closure of at least 2 independent vascular territories supplying the spinal cord and/or prolonged hypotension may be associated with symptomatic spinal cord ischemia (SCI) after thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR). Methods: A pattern matching algorithm was used to develop a risk model for symptomatic SCI using a prospective 63-patient single-center cohort to test the positive predictive value (PPV) of prolonged intraoperative hypotension and/or simultaneous closure of at least 2 of 4 the vascular territories supplying the spinal cord (left subclavian, intercostal, lumbar, and hypogastric arteries). This risk model was then applied to data extracted from the multicenter European Registry on Endovascular Aortic Repair Complications (EuREC). Between 2002 and 2010, the 19 centers participating in EuREC reported 38 (1.7%) cases of symptomatic spinal cord ischemia among the 2235 patients in the database. Results: In the single-center cohort, direct correlations were seen between the occurrence of symptomatic SCI and both prolonged intraoperative hypotension (PPV 1.00, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.00, p = 0.04) and simultaneous closure of at least 2 independent spinal cord vascular territories (PPV 0.67, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.91, p = 0.005). Previous closure of a single vascular territory was not associated with an increased risk of symptomatic spinal cord ischemia (PPV 0.07, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.16, p = 0.56). The combination of prolonged hypotension and simultaneous closure of at least 2 territories exhibited the strongest association (PPV 0.75, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.75, p<0.0001). Applying the model to the entire EuREC cohort found an almost perfect agreement between the predicted and observed risk factors (kappa 0.77, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.90). Conclusion: Extensive coverage of intercostal arteries alone by a thoracic stent-graft is not associated with symptomatic SCI; however, simultaneous closure of at least 2 vascular territories supplying the spinal cord is highly relevant, especially in combination with prolonged intraoperative hypotension. As such, these results further emphasize the need to preserve the left subclavian artery during TEVAR.

Un modelo de riesgo de crédito basado en opciones compuestas con barrera. Aplicación al mercado continuo español

In this work the valuation methodology of compound option written on a downand-out call option, developed by Ericsson and Reneby (2003), has been applied to deduce a credit risk model. It is supposed that the firm has a debt structure with two maturity dates and that the credit event takes place when the assets firm value falls under a determined level called barrier. An empirical application of the model for 105 firms of Spanish continuous market is carried out. For each one of them its value in the date of analysis, the volatility and the critical value are obtained and from these, the default probability to short and long-term and the implicit probability in the two previous probabilities are deduced. The results are compared with the ones obtained from the Geskemodel (1977).

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.

Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the efficient evaluation of ruin probabilities for completely monotone claim size distributions

In this paper we propose a highly accurate approximation procedure for ruin probabilities in the classical collective risk model, which is based on a quadrature/rational approximation procedure proposed in [2]. For a certain class of claim size distributions (which contains the completely monotone distributions) we give a theoretical justification for the method. We also show that under weaker assumptions on the claim size distribution, the method may still perform reasonably well in some cases. This in particular provides an efficient alternative to a related method proposed in [3]. A number of numerical illustrations for the performance of this procedure is provided for both completely monotone and other types of random variables.

Un modelo de riesgo de crédito basado en opciones compuestas con barrera. Aplicación al mercado continuo español

In this work the valuation methodology of compound option written on a downand-out call option, developed by Ericsson and Reneby (2003), has been applied to deduce a credit risk model. It is supposed that the firm has a debt structure with two maturity dates and that the credit event takes place when the assets firm value falls under a determined level called barrier. An empirical application of the model for 105 firms of Spanish continuous market is carried out. For each one of them its value in the date of analysis, the volatility and the critical value are obtained and from these, the default probability to short and long-term and the implicit probability in the two previous probabilities are deduced. The results are compared with the ones obtained from the Geskemodel (1977).

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.