Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

The Pair-Bond Formation and Its Role in the Stimulation of Reproductive Function in Female Common Marmosets (Callithrix jacchus)

SILVA, H.P.A.; SOUSA, M.B.C. The pair-bond formation and its role in the stimulation of reproductive function in female common marmosets (collithrix Jacchus). International Journal of Primatology, v, 18, n.3, p.387-400, 1997.

NESTLING BEHAVIOR and PARENTAL CARE of THE COMMON POTOO (NYCTIBIUS GRISEUS) IN SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL

We recorded and quantified the nocturnal activity and parental care of a brooding Common Potoo (Nyctibius griseus) using an infrared camera in southeastern Brazil. Parents alternated care of the nestling and decreased their presence as the nestling grew. Nestling feeding on passing insects while sitting on the nest, movements on the nest, wing exercising, preening, and defecating were recorded primarily while it was alone. The frequency of begging calls per hour was higher when the nestling was accompanied by one of the parents. Nocturnal recordings of this species on the nest revealed behaviors that were not cited in past studies, including: feedings bouts on passing flies performed by the nestling and adults, nestling defecation, and nestling plumage maintenance. The well-known plus newly quantified behaviors of the Common Potoo reinforce their value to survival during the long nestling period. Received 24 May 2010. Accepted 14 September 2010.

Coordination of construction behavior in the termite Procornitermes araujoi: structure is a stronger stimulus than volatile marking

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The Pair-Bond Formation and Its Role in the Stimulation of Reproductive Function in Female Common Marmosets (Callithrix jacchus)

SILVA, H.P.A.; SOUSA, M.B.C. The pair-bond formation and its role in the stimulation of reproductive function in female common marmosets (collithrix Jacchus). International Journal of Primatology, v, 18, n.3, p.387-400, 1997.

The Pair-Bond Formation and Its Role in the Stimulation of Reproductive Function in Female Common Marmosets (Callithrix jacchus)

SILVA, H.P.A.; SOUSA, M.B.C. The pair-bond formation and its role in the stimulation of reproductive function in female common marmosets (collithrix Jacchus). International Journal of Primatology, v, 18, n.3, p.387-400, 1997.

The effect of ambient scent on moviegoers’ behavior

Atmospheres influence behavior, create a positive image, and influence consumer purchasing patterns and retail perceptions. Nonetheless, the physical environment is a potential source of competitive advantage, though neglected more often than not. In particular, research on the effects of aroma as an independent variable in natural settings is very limited and requires further research. A sample of 407 moviegoers participated in a “natural experiment” in a cinema complex, using scented and unscented conditions. Findings show that scent produces significant positive differences in the evaluation of the theater, its environment, and on intention to return. No significant differences are found in the evaluations of concession products sold, despite the fact that spectators in scented rooms considered product prices to be significantly cheaper than did spectators in unscented rooms. A major implication of this study is that scent significantly affects emotional reactions to atmospheres. Retailers can thus improve environments to create enjoyable experiences and positively influence consumer responses.

Magnetic behavior of 10 nm-magnetite particles diluted in lyotropic liquid crystals

A magnetic study of 10 nm magnetite nanoparticles diluted in lyotropic liquid crystal and common liquids was carried out. In the liquid crystal the ZFC-FC curves showed a clear irreversible behavior, and it was possible to distinguish the nematic from the isotropic phase since the magnetization followed the dependence of the nematic order parameter with the temperature. This behavior could be mimicked by Monte Carlo simulation. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3549616]

Frustration and anomalous behavior in the Bell-Lavis model of liquid water

We have reconsidered the Bell-Lavis model of liquid water and investigated its relation to its isotropic version, the antiferromagnetic Blume-Emery-Griffiths model on the triangular lattice. Our study was carried out by means of an exact solution on the sequential Husimi cactus. We show that the ground states of both models share the same topology and that fluid phases (gas and low- and high-density liquids) can be mapped onto magnetic phases (paramagnetic, antiferromagnetic, and dense paramagnetic, respectively). Both models present liquid-liquid coexistence and several thermodynamic anomalies. This result suggests that anisotropy introduced through orientational variables play no specific role in producing the density anomaly, in agreement with a similar conclusion discussed previously following results for continuous soft core,models. We propose that the presence of liquid anomalies may be related to energetic frustration, a feature common to both models.

Contribution of headed studs to the composite behavior of the partially encased beams

The use of mechanical shear connectors, mainly headed stud bolts, is the most common way to achieve steel-concrete composite action. The encasement of the steel beam in the depth slab results in increase of strength and stiffness, reducing the total height of the floor. In this investigation, three partially encased composite beams were tested under flexural conditions and the main objective was to investigate some alternative positions for the headed studs. To provide longitudinal shear resistance between the I-shaped beam and the concrete, two positions of the,studs were investigated: vertically welded on the bottom flange and horizontally welded on the faces of the web. The experimental results have shown that the headed studs are effective to provide the composite action and increase the bending strength. Furthermore, the headed studs welded vertically on the bottom flange proved to be the most reliable position.

Collapse behavior of soil in a Brazilian region affected by a rising water table

Collapsible soils are usually nonsaturated, low density, and metastable-structured soils that are known to exhibit a volume reduction following an episode of moisture increase or suction reduction. This paper describes the collapsible behavior of clayey sand based on controlled soil suction tests carried out on undisturbed samples from the city of Pereira Barreto, in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Foundation settlements due to soil collapse are common in this region and occurred during the filling of the reservoir of the Tres Irmaos Dam, which induced the elevation of the groundwater table in different parts of Pereira Barreto. This paper shows that collapse strains depend on the stress and soil suction acting in the sample and that saturation is not necessary for a collapse to occur. The influence of soil suction, gradual wetting, and the wetting and drying cycle on the collapsible behavior of the soil is also shown and discussed.

Olfactory eavesdropping between two competing stingless bee species

Foragers can improve search efficiency, and ultimately fitness, by using social information: cues and signals produced by other animals that indicate food location or quality. Social information use has been well studied in predator-prey systems, but its functioning within a trophic level remains poorly understood. Eavesdropping, use of signals by unintended recipients, is of particular interest because eavesdroppers may exert selective pressure on signaling systems. We provide the most complete study to date of eavesdropping between two competing social insect species by determining the glandular source and composition of a recruitment pheromone, and by examining reciprocal heterospecific responses to this signal. We tested eavesdropping between Trigona hyalinata and Trigona spinipes, two stingless bee species that compete for floral resources, exhibit a clear dominance hierarchy and recruit nestmates to high-quality food sources via pheromone trails. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry of T. hyalinata recruitment pheromone revealed six carboxylic esters, the most common of which is octyl octanoate, the major component of T. spinipes recruitment pheromone. We demonstrate heterospecific detection of recruitment pheromones, which can influence heterospecific and conspecific scout orientation. Unexpectedly, the dominant T. hyalinata avoided T. spinipes pheromone in preference tests, while the subordinate T. spinipes showed neither attraction to nor avoidance of T. hyalinata pheromone. We suggest that stingless bees may seek to avoid conflict through their eavesdropping behavior, incorporating expected costs associated with a choice into the decision-making process.

Transformation of external sensilla to chordotonal sensilla in the cut mutant of Drosophila assessed by single-cell marking in the embryo and larva

The cut gene of Drosophila melanogaster is an identity selector gene that establishes the program of development and differentiation of external sense organs. Mutations in the cut gene cause a transformation of the external sense organs into chordotonal organs, originally assessed by the use of immunostaining methods [Bodmer et al. (1987): Cell, 51:293-307]. Because of evidence that axonal projections of the transformed neurons within the central nervous system are not completely switched in cut mutants, the transformation of the four cells making up a sense organ was reassessed using single-cell staining with fluorescent dye and differential interface contrast (DIC) microscopy of the embryo and larva. The results provide strong evidence that all cells of the sense organs are completely transformed, exhibiting the morphologies and organelles characteristic of chordotonal sense organs. A comparison of the structures of external sense organs and chordotonal organs indicates that a number of the differences could be due to the degree of development of common structures, and that cut or downstream genes modulate effector genes that are normally utilized in both receptor types. The possible derivation of insect chordotonal and external sense organs from a receptor type found in crustaceans is discussed in the light of arthropod phylogenetics and the molecular genetics of sense organ development. (C) 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Critical behavior of a three-dimensional hardcore-cylinder composite system

In this work the critical indices β, γ , and ν for a three-dimensional (3D) hardcore cylinder composite system with short-range interaction have been obtained. In contrast to the 2D stick system and the 3D hardcore cylinder system, the determined critical exponents do not belong to the same universality class as the lattice percolation,although they obey the common hyperscaling relation for a 3D system. It is observed that the value of the correlation length exponent is compatible with the predictions of the mean field theory. It is also shown that, by using the Alexander-Orbach conjuncture, the relation between the conductivity and the correlation length critical exponents has a typical value for a 3D lattice system.