The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

Determination of fluoroacetate and fluoride in blood serum by capillary zone electrophoresis using capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection

Fluoroacetate is a highly toxic species naturally found in plants and in commercial products (compound 1080) for population control of several undesirable animal species. However, it is non-selective and toxic to many other animals including humans, and thus its detection is very important for forensic purposes. This paper presents a sensitive and fast method for the determination of fluoroacetate in blood serum using capillary electrophoresis with capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection. Serum blood samples were treated with ethanol to remove proteins. The samples were analyzed in BGE containing 15 mmol/L histidine and 30 mmol/L gluconic acid (pH 3.85). The calibration curve was linear up to 75 mu mol/L (R(2) = 0.9995 for N = 12). The detection limit in the blood serum was 0.15 mg/kg, which is smaller than the lethal dose for humans and other animals. Fluoride, a metabolite of the fluoroacetate defluorination, could also be detected for levels greater than 20 mu mol/L, when polybrene was used for reversion of the EOF. CTAB and didecyldimethylammonium bromide are not useful for this task because of the severe reduction of the fluoride level. However, no interference was observed for fluoroacetate.

Effect of mechanical coating with Ni and Ni-5% Al on the structure and electrochemical properties of the Mg-50% Ni alloy

The Mg-Ni metastable alloys (with amorphous or nanocrystalline structures) are promising candidates for anode application in nickel-metal hydride rechargeable batteries due to its large hydrogen absorbing capacity, low weight, availability, and relative low price. In spite of these interesting features, improvement on the cycle life performance must be achieved to allow its application in commercial products. In the present paper, the effect of mechanical coating of a Mg-50 at.% Ni alloy with Ni and Ni-5 at.% Al on the structure, powder morphology, and electrochemical properties is investigated. The coating additives, Mg-Ni alloy and resulting nanocomposites (i.e., Mg-Ni alloy + additive) were investigated by means of X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. The Mg-Ni alloy and nanocomposites were submitted to galvanostatic cycles of charge and discharge to evaluate their electrode performances. The mechanical coating with Ni and Ni-5% Al increased the maximum discharge capacity of the Mg-Ni alloy from of 221 to 257 and 273 mA h g(-1), respectively. Improvement on the cycle life performance was also achieved by mechanical coating.

Social fabrics

Existing wearable computing research and indeed commercial products, have explored how to control phones and music players in pockets. They have typically relied on interaction via simple flexible button sensors. This thesis proposes, design and develops new ways of interacting which explore the potential of clothes, such as pulling or stretching. Its aim to present and demonstrate the value of embodied and intuitive inputs based on standard clothing elements such as zips, fasteners, beads, Velcro and magnets. Individual interactions for each are described and discussed before a final combination application, the MusicHoodie, which is developed to control an MP3 player. A simple usability test on this system reveals a range of interesting and promising results about which were the most acceptable and understandable inputs. This thesis closes with a discussion of the implications and contributions of the work it presents.

Influência do uso de combustíveis alternativos na síntese por combustão via microondas para a produção de materiais cerâmicos com estrutura espinélio

The development and study of detectors sensitive to flammable combustible and toxic gases at low cost is a crucial technology challenge to enable marketable versions to the market in general. Solid state sensors are attractive for commercial purposes by the strength and lifetime, because it isn t consumed in the reaction with the gas. In parallel, the use of synthesis techniques more viable for the applicability on an industrial scale are more attractive to produce commercial products. In this context ceramics with spinel structure were obtained by microwave-assisted combustion for application to flammable fuel gas detectors. Additionally, alternatives organic-reducers were employed to study the influence of those in the synthesis process and the differences in performance and properties of the powders obtained. The organic- reducers were characterized by Thermogravimetry (TG) and Derivative Thermogravimetry (DTG). After synthesis, the samples were heat treated and characterized by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray Diffraction (XRD), analysis by specific area by BET Method and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). Quantification of phases and structural parameters were carried through Rietveld method. The methodology was effective to obtain Ni-Mn mixed oxides. The fuels influenced in obtaining spinel phase and morphology of the samples, however samples calcined at 950 °C there is just the spinel phase in the material regardless of the organic-reducer. Therefore, differences in performance are expected in technological applications when sample equal in phase but with different morphologies are tested

Estudo da adição do resíduo proveniente da extração de minério de ferro em argilas do Rio Grande do Norte

The mining industry is responsible for the generation of waste from their natural process of extraction. The mining impacts in urban areas are of special importance due to the high urban occupation, which are exacerbated due to the proximity of the mined areas and populated areas. Some solutions to wastedisposal have the potential to significantly reduce the environmental risks and liabilities, but represent higher costs in the stages of deployment and operation. The addition of mining waste as raw material in the development of commercial products reduces the environmental impacts, transforming the waste into a positive element in the generation of employment and income. This thesis studies the incorporation of waste iron ore in two clays, one from the ceramic industry of the City of Natal and the other from the ceramic industry of the Seridó Region, both in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. Percentages of iron ore waste of 5%, 10% , 15%, 20%, 25% and 30% were used in the tested ceramic matrix. The two clays and the iron ore waste used as part of this investigation were characterized by X-ray diffraction tests, X-ray fluorescence tests, differential thermal analysis, thermogravimetric analysis and dilatometric analysis. The samples were sintered under temperatures of 850 °C, 950 °C and 1050°C at a heating rate of 5 °C/min with isotherms of two hours. The following tests were performed with the samples: linear shrinkage, water absorption, apparent porosity, apparent density, mass loss in fire and bending resistance in order to obtain their physical and mechanical properties. An amount of 5% of waste iron ore in the matrix clay at a temperature of 850 0C resulted in na increase of about 65% in the tensile strength of the clay samples from the Natal ceramic industry. A linear shrinkage of only 0.12% was observed for the samples, which indicates that the physical properties of the final product were not influenced by the addition of the waste

Síntese enzimática de ésteres de açúcar: surfactantes e polímeros como novos materiais ambientalmente seguros

Sugar esters are substances which possess surfactant, antifungical and bactericidal actions and can be obtained through two renewable sources of raw materials: sugars and vegetable oils. Their excellent biodegradability, allied to lhe fact that they are non toxic, insipid, inodorous, biocompatible, no-ionic, digestible and because they can resist to adverse conditions of temperature, pH and salinity, explain lhe crescent use of these substances in several sections of lhe industry. The objective of this thesis was to synthesize and characterize surfactants and polymers containing sugar branched in their structures, through enzymatic transesterification of vinyl esters and sugars, using alkaline protease from Bacillus subtilis as catalyst, in organic medium (DMF).Three types of sugars were used: L-arabinose, D-glucose and sucrose and two types of vinyl esters: vinyl laurate and vinyl adipate. Aiming to reach high conversions from substrates to products for a possible future large scale industrial production, a serie of variables was optimized, through Design of Experiments (DOE), using Response Surface Methodology (RSM).The investigated variables were: (1) enzyme concentration; (2) molar reason of substrates; (3) water/solvent rale; (4) temperature and (5) time. We obtained six distinct sugar esters: 5-0-lauroyl L-arabinose, 6-0-lauroyl D-glucose, 1'-O-lauroyl sucrose, 5-0-vinyladipoyl L-arabinose, 6-0-vinyladipoyl D-glucose and 1 '-O-vinyladipoyl sucrose, being lhe last three polymerizable. The progress of lhe reaction was monitored by HPLC analysis, through lhe decrease of sugar concentration in comparison to lhe blank. Qualitative analysis by TLC confirmed lhe formation of lhe products. In lhe purification step, two methodologies were adopted: (1) chromatographic column and (2) extraction with hot acetone. The acylation position and lhe chemical structure were determined by 13C-RMN. The polymerization of lhe three vinyl sugar esters was possible, through chemical catalysis, using H2O2 and K2S2O8 as initiators, at 60°C, for 24 hours. IR spectra of lhe monomers and respective polymers were compared revealing lhe disappearance of lhe vinyl group in lhe polymer spectra. The molar weights of lhe polymers were determined by GPC and presented lhe following results: poly (5-0-vinyladipoyl L-arabinose): Mw = 7.2 X 104; PD = 2.48; poly (6-0-vinyladipoyl D-glucose): Mw = 2.7 X 103; PD = 1.75 and poly (1'-O-vinyladipoyl sucrose): Mw = 4.2 X 104; PD = 6.57. The six sugar esters were submitted to superficial tension tests for determination of the critical micelle concentrations (CMC), which varied from 122 to 167 ppm. Finally, a study of applicability of these sugar esters, as lubricants for completion fluids of petroleum wells was' accomplished through comparative analysis of lhe efficiency of these sugar esters, in relation to three commercial lubricants. The products synthesized in this thesis presented equivalent or superior action to lhe tested commercial products

Postharvest harpin or Bacillus thuringiensis treatments suppress citrus black spot in 'Valencia' oranges

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reguladores vegetais e atividade de invertases em cana-de-açúcar em meio de safra

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estudo do aproveitamento do rejeito da mineração de esmeraldas na produção de refratários conformados isolantes

Emerald mining is an important area of the economy in Brazil, country which is in second place among the exporting nations of this gem. Due to the process of extraction, a great amount of reject is generated. Since there is no appropriate destination, the reject is abandoned around the mining industries, contributing to environment degradation. Nowadays, some of the most relevant things to an industry in general are: energy conservation, cost reduction, quality and productivity enhancement. The production of isolating, transformed refractory materials achieves the sustainability dimension when protection of the environment is incorporated to such process. This work investigates the use of emerald mining rejects in the ceramic body of refractory materials, aiming at obtaining a product whose characteristics are compatible with commercial products and, at the same time, allow the use of such rejects to solve the environmental issue caused by its disposal in nature. X-ray fluorescence analysis show that the emerald reject obtained after the flotation to extract molybdenum and mica has 70% of silica and alumina (SiO2+Al2O3) and 21% of a basic oxides and alkaline metals and earthy alkaline mixture (Na2O, K2O, CaO e MgO). Because of the significant amount of silica and alumina present in the reject, four refractory ceramic bodies were prepared. Samples with a rectangular shape and dimensions 100x50x10 mm were pressed in a steel mold at 27,5 MPa and sintered at 1200ºC for 40 min. under environment atmosphere in a resistive oven. The sintered samples were characterized in relation to the chemical composition (FRX), mineralogical composition (DRX), microstructure (MEV) and physical and mechanical properties. The results indicate that the mixture with 45% of reject, 45% of alumina and 10% of kaolin presents a refractory quality of 1420ºC, dimensional linear variation below 2.00%, apparent specific mass of 1,56 g/cm3 and porosity of 46,68%, which demonstrates the potential use of the reject as raw material for the industry of isolating transformed refractory materials

Determination of fluoroacetate and fluoride in blood serum by capillary zone electrophoresis using capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Production of a low young modulus titanium alloy by powder metallurgy

Titanium alloys have several advantages over ferrous and non-ferrous metallic materials, such as high strengthto-weight ratio and excellent corrosion resistance. A blended elemental titanium powder metallurgy process has been developed to offer low cost commercial products. The process employs hydride-dehydride (HDH) powders as raw material. In this work, results of the Ti-35Nb alloy sintering are presented. This alloy due to its lower modulus of elasticity and high biocompatibility is a promising candidate for aerospace and medical use. Samples were produced by mixing of initial metallic powders followed by uniaxial and cold isostatic pressing with subsequent densification by isochronal sintering between 900 up to 1600 °C, in vacuum. Sintering behavior was studied by means of microscopy and density. Sintered samples were characterized for phase composition, microstructure and microhardness by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and Vickers indentation, respectively. Samples sintered at high temperatures display a fine plate-like alpha structure and intergranular beta. A few remaining pores are still found and density above 90% for specimens sintered in temperatures over 1500 °C is reached.

Remoção, por flotação, de óleo em águas produzidas na indústria de petróleo: eficiência e modelagem do processo

The separation oil-water by the use of flotation process is characterized by the involvement between the liquid and gas phases. For the comprehension of this process, it s necessary to analyze the physical and chemical properties command float flotation, defining the nature and forces over the particles. The interface chemistry has an important role on the flotation technology once, by dispersion of a gas phase into a liquid mixture the particles desired get stuck into air bubbles, being conduced to a superficial layer where can be physically separated. Through the study of interface interaction involved in the system used for this work, was possible to apply the results in an mathematical model able to determine the probability of flotation using a different view related to petroleum emulsions such as oil-water. The terms of probability of flotation correlate the collision and addition between particles of oil and air bubbles, that as more collisions, better is the probability of flotation. The additional probability was analyzed by the isotherm of absorption from Freundlich, represents itself the add probability between air bubbles and oil particles. The mathematical scheme for float flotation involved the injected air flow, the size of bubbles and quantity for second, the volume of float cell, viscosity of environment and concentration of demulsifier. The results shown that the float agent developed by castor oil, pos pH variation, salt quantity, temperature, concentration and water-oil quantity, presented efficient extraction of oil from water, up to 95%, using concentrations around 11 ppm of demulsifier. The best results were compared to other commercial products, codified by ―W‖ and ―Z‖, being observed an equivalent demulsifier power between Agflot and commercial product ―W‖ and superior to commercial product ―Z‖

Micronutrientes na soja: produtividade e análise econômica

A disponibilidade de produtos comerciais contendo micronutrientes tem aumentado nos últimos anos, embora existam resultados experimentais mostrando grande variabilidade, o que torna este tema contraditório. A diminuição do custo relativo no uso de micronutrientes e a expectativa de ganhos em escala, nos últimos anos, tem motivado produtores a utilizar micronutrientes como cobalto, boro e molibdênio, pela sua influência na fixação simbiótica de nitrogênio na soja. O objetivo do trabalho foi de determinar a viabilidade técnica e econômica da aplicação de alguns micronutrientes, com destaque para Mo e Co, na produtividade de grãos da soja. O experimento foi conduzido nos anos agrícolas 2001/02 e 2002/03, na Fazenda Paineira, da SLC Agrícola Ltda, em Coronel Bicaco, RS, em Latossolo Vermelho Distroférrico típico há oito anos sob plantio direto. O delineamento experimental foi de blocos ao acaso com três repetições, com parcelas de 10 x 50 m. A implantação da soja foi em 18/11 de 2001 e em 24/11 de 2002, com população de 225 e 190 mil plantas ha-1, para os dois anos agrícolas, respectivamente. O espaçamento entre linhas foi de 0,40 m e a cultivar foi a RS-10 para os dois anos. Os tratamentos em 2001/02 foram: (1) CoMo; (2)CoMo+Mo; (3) CoMo +Mo+Mo; (4) CoMo+Mo+P30; (5) CoMo +B; (6) B; (7) Mo; (8) Mo+Mo; e (9) Testemunha. em 2003/04, os tratamentos foram: (1) CoMo+2x Mo; (2)CoMo+2x Mo+B; (3) CoMo+2x Mo+Phitosol PK; (4) CoMo+2x Fortifol CaB; (5) CoMo+2x Mo + LBE-PT1; (6) CoMo+2x Mo+P30; (7) CoMo+2x Mo+Stimulate; e (8) Testemunha. O uso de micronutrientes, especialmente Mo e Co, mostrou-se contraditório na avaliação da produtividade física de grãos através de comparação de médias. Entretanto, na maioria dos casos, o retorno econômico da aplicação dos micronutrientes foi positivo, mas evidenciou sua dependência de altas produtividades e preços favoráveis no momento da comercialização.

Qualidade tecnológica, produtividade e margem de contribuição agrícola da cana-de-açúcar em função da aplicação de reguladores vegetais no início da safra

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)