Satellite observation and climate system model simulation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya

The St. Lawrence Island polynya (SLIP) is a commonly occurring winter phenomenon in the Bering Sea, in which dense saline water produced during new ice formation is thought to flow northward through the Bering Strait to help maintain the Arctic Ocean halocline. Winter darkness and inclement weather conditions have made continuous in situ and remote observation of this polynya difficult. However, imagery acquired from the European Space Agency ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has allowed observation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya using both the imagery and derived ice displacement products. With the development of ARCSyM, a high resolution regional model of the Arctic atmosphere/sea ice system, simulation of the SLIP in a climate model is now possible. Intercomparisons between remotely sensed products and simulations can lead to additional insight into the SLIP formation process. Low resolution SAR, SSM/I and AVHRR infrared imagery for the St. Lawrence Island region are compared with the results of a model simulation for the period of 24-27 February 1992. The imagery illustrates a polynya event (polynya opening). With the northerly winds strong and consistent over several days, the coupled model captures the SLIP event with moderate accuracy. However, the introduction of a stability dependent atmosphere-ice drag coefficient, which allows feedbacks between atmospheric stability, open water, and air-ice drag, produces a more accurate simulation of the SLIP in comparison to satellite imagery. Model experiments show that the polynya event is forced primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation followed by persistent favorable conditions: ocean surface currents are found to have a small but positive impact on the simulation which is enhanced when wind forcing is weak or variable.

Simulation of mixing in unsteady flow through a periodically obstructed channel

Fluid mixing in steady and unsteady Bow through a channel containing periodic square obstructions has been studied using a finite-difference simulation to determine fluid velocities, followed by the use of passive marker particle advection to look at fluid transport out of the cavities formed between each of the obstructions. The geometry and Bow conditions were chosen from the work by Perkins (1989, M.S. Thesis, Lehigh University; 1992, Ph.D. Thesis, Lehigh University); who investigated heat transfer enhancement due to unsteady flow through such an obstructed channel. Particle advection shows that Bow regimes which are predicted to give good mixing based on snapshots of instantaneous streamline contour plots were not necessarily able to efficiently mix fluid which started in the cavity regions throughout the channel. The use of Poincare sections shows regular regions existing under these conditions which inhibit efficient fluid transport. These regular regions are found to disappear when the unsteady Bow velocity is increased. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Pregnancy outcome in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus: A Brazilian multicenter cohort study

Objective. To determine pregnancy outcome and fetal loss risk factors in patients with juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE). Methods. A total of 315 female patients with JSLE followed in 12 Brazilian pediatric rheumatology centers were consecutively selected. Menarche was observed in 298 (94.6%) patients. Patients` medical records were reviewed for pregnancy outcomes and demographic, clinical, and therapeutic data. Results. A total of 24 unplanned pregnancies occurred in 298 (8%) patients. The outcomes were 5 (21%) early fetal losses (prior to 16 wks gestation), 18 (75%) live births, and 1 (4%) death due to preeclampsia and premature birth. The frequencies of active diffuse proliferative glomerulonephritis, proteinuria >= 0.5 g/day, and arterial hypertension at the beginning of pregnancy were higher in pregnancies resulting in fetal losses than in live births [60% vs 5% (p = 0.02), 60% vs 5% (p = 0.02), 60% vs 5% (p = 0.02), respectively]. JSLE pregnancies with fetal losses had a significantly higher mean SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K) at the start of pregnancy compared with those with live births (9.40 +/- 7.47 vs 3.94 +/- 6.00; p = 0.049). Four pregnancies were inadvertently exposed to intravenous cyclophosphamide therapy for renal involvement despite contraceptive prescriptions, resulting in fetal loss in 3 (p = 0.02). In multivariate analysis only intravenous cyclophosphamide use at start of pregnancy (OR 25.50, 95% CI 1.72-377.93, p = 0.019) remained as an independent risk factor for fetal loss. Conclusion. We identified immunosuppressive therapy as the major contributing factor for fetal loss in JSLE, reinforcing the importance of contraception.

Immunogenicity and safety of the 2009 non-adjuvanted influenza A/H1N1 vaccine in a large cohort of autoimmune rheumatic diseases

Background Despite the WHO recommendation that the 2010-2011 trivalent seasonal flu vaccine must contain A/California/7/2009/H1N1-like virus there is no consistent data regarding its immunogenicity and safety in a large autoimmune rheumatic disease (ARD) population. Methods 1668 ARD patients (systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), ankylosing spondylitis (AS), systemic sclerosis, psoriatic arthritis (PsA), Behcet`s disease (BD), mixed connective tissue disease, primary antiphospholipid syndrome (PAPS), dermatomyositis (DM), primary Sjogren`s syndrome, Takayasu`s arteritis, polymyositis and Granulomatosis with polyangiitis (Wegener`s) (GPA)) and 234 healthy controls were vaccinated with a non-adjuvanted influenza A/California/7/2009(H1N1) virus-like strain flu. Subjects were evaluated before vaccination and 21 days post-vaccination. The percentage of seroprotection, seroconversion and the factor increase in geometric mean titre (GMT) were calculated. Results After immunisation, seroprotection rates (68.5% vs 82.9% p < 0.0001), seroconversion rates (63.4% vs 76.9%, p < 0.001) and the factor increase in GMT (8.9 vs 13.2 p < 0.0001) were significantly lower in ARD than controls. Analysis of specific diseases revealed that seroprotection significantly reduced in SLE (p < 0.0001), RA (p < 0.0001), PsA (p=0.0006), AS (p=0.04), BD (p=0.04) and DM (p=0.04) patients than controls. The seroconversion rates in SLE (p < 0.0001), RA (p < 0.0001) and PsA (p=0.0006) patients and the increase in GMTs in SLE (p < 0.0001), RA (p < 0.0001) and PsA (p < 0.0001) patients were also reduced compared with controls. Moderate and severe side effects were not reported. Conclusions The novel recognition of a diverse vaccine immunogenicity profile in distinct ARDs supports the notion that a booster dose may be recommended for diseases with suboptimal immune responses. This large study also settles the issue of vaccine safety. (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT01151644)

Interleukin-1 receptor antagonist gene (IL1RN) polymorphism possibly associated to severity of rheumatic carditis in a Brazilian cohort

Aims: To evaluate the IL1RN polymorphism as a possible marker for Rheumatic Fever (RF) susceptibility or disease severity. Methods: The genotypes of 84 RF patients (Jones criteria) and 84 normal race-matched controls were determined through the analysis of the number of 86-bp tandem repeats in the second intron of IL1RN. The DNA was extracted from peripheral-blood leukocytes and amplified with specific primers. Clinical manifestations of RF were obtained through a standardized questionnaire and an extensive chart review. Carditis was defined as new onset cardiac murmur that was perceived by a trained physician with corresponding valvae regurgitation or stenosis on echocardiogram. Carditis was classified as severe in the presence of congestive heart failure or upon the indication for cardiac surgery. The statistical association among the genotypes, RF and its clinical variations was determined. Results: The presence of allele I and the genotype A1/A1 were found less frequently among patients with severe carditis when compared to patients without this manifestation (OR = 0.11, p = 0.031; OR = 0.092, p = 0.017). Neither allele I nor allele 2 were associated with the presence of RF (p = 0.188 and p = 0.106), overall carditis (p = 0.578 and p = 0.767), polyarthritis (p = 0.343 and p = 0.313) and chorea (p = 0.654 and p = 0.633). Conclusion: In the Brazilian population, the polymorphism of the IL-1ra gene is a relevant factor for rheumatic heart disease severity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The occurrence of cancer in a cohort of New South Wales coal miners

To describe the incidence of cancer in coal miners in New South Wales (NSW) between 1973 and 1992, an inception cohort of all male coal industry employees who entered the industry between 1 January 1973 and 31 December 1992 was constructed from the medical examination records of the Joint Coal Board. This cohort was matched with the NSW State Cancer Registry to determine the occurrence and type of cancer. In the cohort of 23 630 men, 297 developed 301 primary cancers in the 20-year period of observation. The standardised incidence ratio (SLR) for all cancers was 0.82. Stomach cancer has been reported to be common in coal miners but the SIR for stomach cancer was not higher than average in this cohort. A cluster of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma has been reported in a NSW coal mine but an increased risk of this cancer was not evident in the industry as a whole. Similarly a cluster of cases of brain tumour has been reported. In this cohort, the SIR for brain tumour was 1.05 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 0.57 to 1.76) and a risk for brain tumour remains unconfirmed. The SIR for malignant melanoma was 1.13 (CI 0.90 to 1.39) altogether and 2.02 (CI 1.31 to 2.98) for those workers who started in an open-cut mine. Overall, there does not appear to be a general risk of cancer in the NSW coal industry. Open-cut miners have an increased risk of malignant melanoma, which may be related to their exposure to the sun at work.

Application of a wrist dosimeter prototype for radiation monitoring ((153)Sm) during a therapeutic procedure simulation

Gamma and beta radiation emitting radiopharmaceuticals are handled in nuclear medicine services, and in many cases there is only individual monitoring of gamma radiation. In this paper, the results obtained using a wrist dosimeter prototype (CaSO(4):Dy + Teflon pellets) show that the doses for workers occupationally exposed to beta radiation from (153)Sm are not negligible. It is important that this dose is evaluated, and it has to be taken into consideration in the individual monitoring system.

Asthma mortality in Australia 1920-94: Age, period, and cohort effects

Study objective-To investigate asthma mortality during 1920-94 in Australia in order to assess the relative role of period and birth cohort effects. Design-Asthma mortality (both sexes) was age standardised and examined for changes over time. The data were also examined for age, period, and cohort (APC) effects using Poisson regression modelling. Setting-National Australian mortality data. Participants-Population (both sexes) aged 15-34 years, 1920-94. Main results-Age adjusted period rates indicate an increase in asthma mortality during the 1950s, and increases and subsequent falls (epidemics) during the mid 1960s and late 1980s. APC modelling suggested an increasing cohort effect (adjusted for both age and period) from the birth cohort 1950-54 onwards. Period effects (adjusted for age and cohort) are characterised by an increase in the 1950s (possibly due to changes in diagnostic labelling), minimal or no increases in the mid 1960s and late 1980s (where period peaks had been noted when data were adjusted for age only), and declines in mortality risk subsequent to the periods where age-period analysis had noted increases. Thus, in Australia, some of the mid 1960s epidemic in asthma deaths, and all of the late 1980s mortality increase, seem to be attributable to cohort effects. Conclusions-The increase in asthma mortality cohort effect is consistent with empirical evidence of recent increases in prevalence (and presumably incidence) of asthma in Australia, and suggests the need for more research into the underlying environmental aetiology of this condition.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective: water and nitrogen effects on spring wheat in a semi-arid environment

Systems approaches can help to evaluate and improve the agronomic and economic viability of nitrogen application in the frequently water-limited environments. This requires a sound understanding of crop physiological processes and well tested simulation models. Thus, this experiment on spring wheat aimed to better quantify water x nitrogen effects on wheat by deriving some key crop physiological parameters that have proven useful in simulating crop growth. For spring wheat grown in Northern Australia under four levels of nitrogen (0 to 360 kg N ha(-1)) and either entirely on stored soil moisture or under full irrigation, kernel yields ranged from 343 to 719 g m(-2). Yield increases were strongly associated with increases in kernel number (9150-19950 kernels m(-2)), indicating the sensitivity of this parameter to water and N availability. Total water extraction under a rain shelter was 240 mm with a maximum extraction depth of 1.5 m. A substantial amount of mineral nitrogen available deep in the profile (below 0.9 m) was taken up by the crop. This was the source of nitrogen uptake observed after anthesis. Under dry conditions this late uptake accounted for approximately 50% of total nitrogen uptake and resulted in high (>2%) kernel nitrogen percentages even when no nitrogen was applied,Anthesis LAI values under sub-optimal water supply were reduced by 63% and under sub-optimal nitrogen supply by 50%. Radiation use efficiency (RUE) based on total incident short-wave radiation was 1.34 g MJ(-1) and did not differ among treatments. The conservative nature of RUE was the result of the crop reducing leaf area rather than leaf nitrogen content (which would have affected photosynthetic activity) under these moderate levels of nitrogen limitation. The transpiration efficiency coefficient was also conservative and averaged 4.7 Pa in the dry treatments. Kernel nitrogen percentage varied from 2.08 to 2.42%. The study provides a data set and a basis to consider ways to improve simulation capabilities of water and nitrogen effects on spring wheat. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Childhood Trauma and Children`s Emerging Psychotic Symptoms: A Genetically Sensitive Longitudinal Cohort Study

Objective: Using longitudinal and prospective measures of trauma during childhood, the authors assessed the risk of developing psychotic symptoms associated with maltreatment, bullying, and accidents in a nationally representative U. K. cohort of young twins. Method: Data were from the Environmental Risk Longitudinal Twin Study, which follows 2,232 twin children and their families. Mothers were interviewed during home visits when children were ages 5, 7, 10, and 12 on whether the children had experienced maltreatment by an adult, bullying by peers, or involvement in an accident. At age 12, children were asked about bullying experiences and psychotic symptoms. Children`s reports of psychotic symptoms were verified by clinicians. Results: Children who experienced maltreatment by an adult (relative risk=3.16, 95% CI=1.92-5.19) or bullying by peers (relative risk=2.47, 95% CI=1.74-3.52) were more likely to report psychotic symptoms at age 12 than were children who did not experience such traumatic events. The higher risk for psychotic symptoms was observed whether these events occurred early in life or later in childhood. The risk associated with childhood trauma remained significant in analyses controlling for children`s gender, socioeconomic deprivation, and IQ; for children`s early symptoms of internalizing or externalizing problems; and for children`s genetic liability to developing psychosis. In contrast, the risk associated with accidents was small (relative risk=1.47, 95% CI=1.02-2.13) and inconsistent across ages. Conclusions: Trauma characterized by intention to harm is associated with children`s reports of psychotic symptoms. Clinicians working with children who report early symptoms of psychosis should inquire about traumatic events such as maltreatment and bullying.

Etiological and Clinical Features of Childhood Psychotic Symptoms Results From a Birth Cohort

Context: It has been reported that childhood psychotic symptoms are common in the general population and may signal neurodevelopmental processes that lead to schizophrenia. However, it is not clear whether these symptoms are associated with the same extensive risk factors established for adult schizophrenia. Objective: To examine the construct validity of children`s self-reported psychotic symptoms by testing whether these symptoms share the risk factors and clinical features of adult schizophrenia. Design: Prospective, longitudinal cohort study of a nationally representative birth cohort in Great Britain. Participants: A total of 2232 twelve-year-old children followed up since age 5 years ( retention, 96%). Main Outcome Measure: Children`s self-reported hallucinations and delusions. Results: Children`s psychotic symptoms are familial and heritable and are associated with social risk factors (eg, urbanicity); cognitive impairments at age 5; home-rearing risk factors ( eg, maternal expressed emotion); behavioral, emotional, and educational problems at age 5; and comorbid conditions, including self-harm. Conclusions: The results provide a comprehensive picture of the construct validity of children`s self-reported psychotic symptoms. For researchers, the findings indicate that children who have psychotic symptoms can be recruited for neuroscience research to determine the pathogenesis of schizophrenia. For clinicians, the findings indicate that psychotic symptoms in childhood are often a marker of an impaired developmental process and should be actively assessed.

Implications of Extending the ADHD Age-of-Onset Criterion to Age 12: Results from a Prospectively Studied Birth Cohort

Objective: To evaluate whether including children with onset of symptoms between ages 7 and 12 years in the ADHD diagnostic category would: (a) increase the prevalence of the disorder at age 12, and (b) change the clinical and cognitive features, impairment profile, and risk factors for ADHD compared with findings in the literature based on the DSM-IV definition of the disorder. Method: A birth cohort of 2,232 British children was prospectively evaluated at ages 7 and 12 years for ADHD using information from mothers and teachers. The prevalence of diagnosed ADHD at age 12 was evaluated with and without the inclusion of individuals who met DSM-IV age-of-onset criterion through mothers` or teachers` reports of symptoms at age 7. Children with onset of ADHD symptoms before versus after age 7 were compared on their clinical and cognitive features, impairment profile, and risk factors for ADHD. Results: Extending the age-of-onset criterion to age 12 resulted in a negligible increase in ADHD prevalence by age 12 years of 0.1%. Children who first manifested ADHD symptoms between ages 7 and 12 did not present correlates or risk factors that were significantly different from children who manifested symptoms before age 7. Conclusions: Results from this prospective birth cohort might suggest that adults who are able to report symptom onset by age 12 also had symptoms by age 7, even if they are not able to report them. The data suggest that the prevalence estimate, correlates and risk factors of ADHD will not be affected if the new diagnostic scheme extends the age-of-onset criterion to age 12. J. Am. Acad. Child Adolesc. Psychiatry, 2010;49(3):210-216.

Mucosal leishmaniasis: description of case management approaches and analysis of risk factors for treatment failure in a cohort of 140 patients in Brazil

Background Mucosal leishmaniasis is caused mainly by Leishmania braziliensis and it occurs months or years after cutaneous lesions. This progressive disease destroys cartilages and osseous structures from face, pharynx and larynx. Objective and methods The aim of this study was to analyse the significance of clinical and epidemiological findings, diagnosis and treatment with the outcome and recurrence of mucosal leishmaniasis through binary logistic regression model from 140 patients with mucosal leishmaniasis from a Brazilian centre. Results The median age of patients was 57.5 and systemic arterial hypertension was the most prevalent secondary disease found in patients with mucosal leishmaniasis (43%). Diabetes, chronic nephropathy and viral hepatitis, allergy and coagulopathy were found in less than 10% of patients. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was found in 7 of 140 patients (5%). Rhinorrhea (47%) and epistaxis (75%) were the most common symptoms. N-methyl-glucamine showed a cure rate of 91% and recurrence of 22%. Pentamidine showed a similar rate of cure (91%) and recurrence (25%). Fifteen patients received itraconazole with a cure rate of 73% and recurrence of 18%. Amphotericin B was the drug used in 30 patients with 82% of response with a recurrence rate of 7%. The binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that systemic arterial hypertension and HIV infection were associated with failure of the treatment (P < 0.05). Conclusion The current first-line mucosal leishmaniasis therapy shows an adequate cure but later recurrence. HIV infection and systemic arterial hypertension should be investigated before start the treatment of mucosal leishmaniasis. Conflicts of interest The authors are not part of any associations or commercial relationships that might represent conflicts of interest in the writing of this study (e.g. pharmaceutical stock ownership, consultancy, advisory board membership, relevant patents, or research funding).

Implications of prevalent and incident diabetes mellitus on left ventricular geometry and function in the ageing heart: The MONICA/KORA Augsburg cohort study

Background and Aim: It is unclear to what extent diabetes modulates the ageing-related adaptations of cardiac geometry and function. Methods and Results: We examined 1005 adults, aged 25-74 years, from a population-based survey at baseline in 1994/5 and at follow-up in 2004/5. We compared persistently non-diabetic individuals (ND; no diabetes at baseline and at follow-up, n = 833) with incident (ID; non-diabetic at baseline and diabetic at follow-up, n = 36) and with prevalent diabetics (PD; diabetes at baseline and follow-up examination, n = 21). Left ventricular (LV) geometry and function were evaluated by echocardiography. Statistical analyses were performed with multivariate linear regression models. Over ten years the PD group displayed a significantly stronger relative increase of LV mass (+9.34% vs. +23.7%) that was mediated by a more pronounced increase of LV end-diastolic diameter (+0% vs. +6.95%) compared to the ND group. In parallel, LA diameter increased (+4.50% vs. +12.7%), whereas ejection fraction decreased (+3.02% vs. -4.92%) more significantly in the PD group. Moreover, at the follow-up examination the PD and ID groups showed a significantly worse diastolic function, indicated by a higher E/EM ratio compared with the ND group (11.6 and 11.8 vs. 9.79, respectively). Conclusions: Long-standing diabetes was associated with an acceleration of age-related changes of left ventricular geometry accumulating in an eccentric remodelling of the left ventricle. Likewise, echocardiographic measures of systolic and diastolic ventricular function deteriorated more rapidly in individuals with diabetes. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.