On the Political Economy of Sequential Reforms

This paper proposes an explanation for why efficient reforms are not carried out when losers have the power to block their implementation, even though compensating them is feasible. We construct a signaling model with two-sided incomplete information in which a government faces the task of sequentially implementing two reforms by bargaining with interest groups. The organization of interest groups is endogenous. Compensations are distortionary and government types differ in the concern about distortions. We show that, when compensations are allowed to be informative about the government’s type, there is a bias against the payment of compensations and the implementation of reforms. This is because paying high compensations today provides incentives for some interest groups to organize and oppose subsequent reforms with the only purpose of receiving a transfer. By paying lower compensations, governments attempt to prevent such interest groups from organizing. However, this comes at the cost of reforms being blocked by interest groups with relatively high losses.

Why Have Aggregate Skilled Hours Become So Cyclical Since the Mid-1980's?

This paper documents and discusses a dramatic change in the cyclical behavior of aggregate hours worked by individuals with a college degree (skilled workers) since the mid-1980’s. Using the CPS outgoing rotation data set for the period 1979:1-2003:4, we find that the volatility of aggregate skilled hours relative to the volatility of GDP has nearly tripled since 1984. In contrast, the cyclical properties of unskilled hours have remained essentially unchanged. We evaluate the extent to which a simple supply/demand model for skilled and unskilled labor with capital-skill complementarity in production can help explain this stylized fact. Within this framework, we identify three effects which would lead to an increase in the relative volatility of skilled hours: (i) a reduction in the degree of capital-skill complementarity, (ii) a reduction in the absolute volatility of GDP (and unskilled hours), and (iii) an increase in the level of capital equipment relative to skilled labor. We provide empirical evidence in support of each of these effects. Our conclusion is that these three mechanisms can jointly explain about sixty percent of the observed increase in the relative volatility of skilled labor. The reduction in the degree of capital-skill complementarity contributes the most to this result.

Online Dispute Resolution: Some Implications for the Emergence of Law in Cyberspace

"L’auteur Ethan Katsh analyse les problématiques posées par les relations de la communauté virtuelle de l’Internet et son processus en ligne de résolution des conflits. Il explique comment le cyberespace constitue un environnement intégral et indépendant qui développe ses propres règles normatives. L’évolution des normes au sein du cyberespace semble être une conséquence des interactions entre les acteurs, sans intervention législative fondamentale de la part des états. L’auteur trace l’évolution, depuis le début des années 1990, du processus en ligne de résolution des différends, principalement dans le domaine du commerce électronique. L’accroissement rapide des relations commerciales électroniques a entraîné une hausse des litiges dans ce domaine. Dans le cadre de tels litiges, les moyens en ligne de résolution des conflits offrent aux justiciables plus de facilité, de flexibilité et d’accessibilité que les moyens alternatifs traditionnels de résolution des conflits. C’est donc dans ce contexte qu’a été développé le système ""Squaretrade"" qui a pour objectif d’aider la résolution de conflits entre les utilisateurs de ""E-Bay"". Ce système présente l’avantage important d’encadrer et d’uniformiser le processus de résolution en définissant les termes généraux et spécifiques du conflit. L’auteur soutient que la principale fonction d’un tel système est d’organiser et d’administrer efficacement les communications entre les parties. Ainsi, cette fonction préserve le ""paradigme de la quatrième personne"", nécessaire aux processus alternatifs traditionnels de résolution de conflits. Par ailleurs, cette fonction, en tant que partie intégrante du programme informatique, constitue pour les justiciables une alternative intéressante aux règles législatives. Pour l’auteur, l’analyse de ce phénomène soulève des questions importantes concernant la création de normes et leur acceptation par les citoyens. L’auteur analyse par la suite le concept général de la formation des normes dans le contexte d’un environnement non régularisé. Il soutient que les normes émergeantes doivent toujours viser à développer une forme de légitimité auprès des justiciables. Dans le cadre du processus en ligne de résolution des conflits, cette légitimité doit être acquise autant auprès des parties au litige qu’auprès de la population en général. Toutefois, les attentes des parties au litige sont souvent très différentes de celles du public. L’auteur illustre ainsi comment certains processus en ligne de résolution de conflit ne réussissent pas à obtenir une telle légitimité, alors que d’autres s’établissent en tant qu’institutions reconnues. Dans ce contexte, les institutions en ligne de résolution de conflits devront développer leur propre valeur normative. Ainsi, les moyens en ligne de résolution des conflits remettent en question le processus traditionnel de formation des normes et peuvent être considérés comme des éléments d’un nouvel environnement normatif."

Online Dispute Resolution: The Next Phase

Ce texte traite de l’évolution des modes alternatifs de résolution de conflit (MARC) en ligne. L’auteur dresse un historique des différents projets de médiation en ligne en passant par ses « débuts » en 1999 lorsque l’Online Ombuds Office (OOO) fut approché pour l’élaboration d’un système de médiation pour les clients d’eBay, par SquareTrade.com, par les règles de l’ICANN, par Cybersettle et Clicknsettle, etc. Il expose ensuite le courrant que prendra la cybermédiation et le cyberarbitrage dans les années à venir. Ainsi, le médium informatique devient lentement une « quatrième partie » aux discussions et peut venir en aide aux arbitres et aux médiateurs dans la gestion et la communication d’informations. De plus les fonctions d’affichages propres aux ordinateurs, c’est-à-dire la possibilité d’incorporer images, graphiques, plans, etc., devront être mis à l’œuvre par les systèmes de MARC en ligne si ceux-ci sont destinés à prendre de l’expansion dans d’autres domaines que ceux leur étant présentement réservés.

Explaining the evolution of educational attainment in the U.S.

We study the evolution of educational attainment of the 1932–1972 cohorts using a calibrated model of investment in human capital with heterogeneous learning ability. The inter-cohort variation in schooling is driven by changes in skill prices, tuition, and education quality over time, and average learning ability across cohorts. A version of the model with static expectations is successful in accounting for the main patterns in the data. Rising skill prices for college explain the rapid increase in college graduation till the 1948 cohort. The measured decline in average learning ability contributes to explain the stagnation in college graduation between the 1948 and 1972 cohorts.

Transformaciones discursivas en el proceso de securitización del narcotráfico. Un análisis de los actos discursivos oficiales de Colombia y Estados Unidos en la Guerra contra las drogas 1986 - 1990

El tema de las drogas suscita un debate entre quienes defienden la prohibición y la represión, y aquellos que defienden alternativas como la legalización y/o regulación y otras más moderadas como la descriminalización y la despenalización. Aunque ambas posturas muestran datos empíricos que las soportan, desde el ámbito discursivo la visión represiva se ha posicionado como la más aceptada en el continente americano, más específicamente, en Latinoamérica. El presente trabajo, hace un estudio de caso del proceso de securitización del narcotráfico entre los presidentes de Estados Unidos y Colombia durante el período 1986-1990. A lo largo del texto, se analizan discursos oficiales de los presidentes de ambos Estados, resaltando las estrategias retóricas y sus transformaciones que legitimaron acciones represivas de tipo político-militar contra las drogas. Al final se apunta a reivindicar el discurso como un instrumento para reproducir creencias sobre fenómenos, en este caso, la creencia de que las drogas son una amenaza existencial a la seguridad política y militar para los Estados.

Conclusiones de los informes nacionales sobre educación abierta y a distancia.

Se presenta un análisis de las conclusiones de los informes nacionales sobre educación abierta y a distancia presentados por Bélgica, Dinamarca, Francia, Alemania, Grecia, Irlanda, los Países Bajos, España y Reino Unido en el 'Seminario sobre Educación y Formación Abiertas y a Distancia en Europa' celebrado del 7 al 8 de octubre de 1993 en Poitiers, bajo el proyecto propuesto por la Comisión Europea por invitación del Consejo Europeo para evaluar el estado de la educación abierta y a distancia (EAD) en Europa.

Género e Domesticidade na Indonésia : A Nova Ordem

Mulheres que garantam uma vida familiar calma e feliz e, sobretudo, proveitosa para as actividades do marido. Este foi um ideal acalentado por Jan Pieterszoon Coen, considerado como o fundador da autoridade holandesa no arquipélago de Insulíndia. Coen desempenhava papéis-chave na VOC2 no início do século XVII, altura em que os holandeses sucediam aos portugueses como potência europeia com mais influência no arquipélago. A presença portuguesa, entretanto, ficou limitada a poucas regiões, tais como Macaçar e a zona de Timor. Jan Pieterszoon Coen, já antes de ascender ao mais alto cargo, o de Governador Geral, delineou uma política de colonização para os postos holandeses, nomeadamente Batávia (actualmente Jacarta) como a sede da VOC na Ásia. Nesta política, o factor feminino tinha lugar de destaque. Segundo Coen, para contrariar os excessos e as bebedeiras, em suma a vida desordeira levada pelos homens europeus ao serviço da VOC, que prejudicava bastante o seu funcionamento, eles precisavam de uma relação estável com uma mulher, ou seja, de uma vida matrimonial.3 Os projectos demográficos de Coen e as iniciativas mal sucedidas, como o transporte de mulheres e em particular de meninas órfãs da Holanda, neste texto não serão abordados.4 Mas é significante que um dos primeiros protagonistas da expansão europeia no país agora chamado Indonésia dava tanta importância à responsabilidade das mulheres por uma vida doméstica serena e um marido contente. Neste artigo, que foca a situação das mulheres na Indonésia, nomeadamente nos anos 70 e 80 do século XX, serão abordadas várias influências normativas. Entre essas contam-se as ideias dos ocidentais que, durante os três séculos depois do governo de Coen, iriam aumentar o seu poder no arquipélago. No entanto, houve muitos outros factores, entre os quais a singularidade das culturas indígenas, descritas desde o início do século XVI por portugueses tais como Tomé Pires e António Galvão.

A comparison of three canopy interception models for a leafless mixed deciduous forest stand in the eastern United States

Canopy interception of incident precipitation is a critical component of the forest water balance during each of the four seasons. Models have been developed to predict precipitation interception from standard meteorological variables because of acknowledged difficulty in extrapolating direct measurements of interception loss from forest to forest. No known study has compared and validated canopy interception models for a leafless deciduous forest stand in the eastern United States. Interception measurements from an experimental plot in a leafless deciduous forest in northeastern Maryland (39°42'N, 75°5'W) for 11 rainstorms in winter and early spring 2004/05 were compared to predictions from three models. The Mulder model maintains a moist canopy between storms. The Gash model requires few input variables and is formulated for a sparse canopy. The WiMo model optimizes the canopy storage capacity for the maximum wind speed during each storm. All models showed marked underestimates and overestimates for individual storms when the measured ratio of interception to gross precipitation was far more or less, respectively, than the specified fraction of canopy cover. The models predicted the percentage of total gross precipitation (PG) intercepted to within the probable standard error (8.1%) of the measured value: the Mulder model overestimated the measured value by 0.1% of PG; the WiMo model underestimated by 0.6% of PG; and the Gash model underestimated by 1.1% of PG. The WiMo model’s advantage over the Gash model indicates that the canopy storage capacity increases logarithmically with the maximum wind speed. This study has demonstrated that dormant-season precipitation interception in a leafless deciduous forest may be satisfactorily predicted by existing canopy interception models.

Linking molecular and population stress responses in Daphnia magna exposed to cadmium

DNA microarrays can be used to measure environmental stress responses. If they are to be predictive of environmental impact, we need to determine if altered gene expression translates into negative impacts on individuals and populations. A large cDNA microarray (14000 spots) was created to measure molecular stress responses to cadmium in Daphnia magna,the most widely used aquatic indicator species, and relate responses to population growth rate (pgr). We used the array to detect differences in the transcription of genes in juvenile D. magna (24 h old) after 24 h exposure to a control and three cadmium concentrations (6, 20, and 37 mu g Cd2+ L-1). Stress responses at the population level were estimated following a further 8 days exposure. Pgr was approximately linear negative with increasing cadmium concentration over this range. The microarray profile of gene expression in response to acute cadmium exposure begins to provide an overview of the molecular responses of D. magna, especially in relation to growth and development. Of the responding genes, 29% were involved with metabolism including carbohydrate, fat and peptide metabolism, and energy production, 31% were involved with transcription/translation, while 40% of responding genes were associated with cellular processes like growth and moulting, ion transport, and general stress responses (which included oxidative stress). Our production and application of a large Daphnia magna microarray has shown that measured gene responses can be logically linked to the impact of a toxicant such as cadmium on somatic growth and development, and consequently pgr.

Pharmacometabonomic characterization of xenobiotic and endogenous metabolic phenotypes that account for inter-individual variation in isoniazid-induced toxicological response

An NMR-based pharmacometabonomic approach was applied to investigate inter-animal variation in response to isoniazid (INH; 200 and 400 mg/kg) in male Sprague-Dawley rats, alongside complementary clinical chemistry and histopathological analysis. Marked inter-animal variability in central nervous system (CNS) toxicity was identified following administration of a high dose of INH, which enabled characterization of CNS responders and CNS non-responders. High-resolution post-dose urinary (1)H NMR spectra were modeled both by their xenobiotic and endogenous metabolic information sets, enabling simultaneous identification of the differential metabolic fate of INH and its associated endogenous metabolic consequences in CNS responders and CNS non-responders. A characteristic xenobiotic metabolic profile was observed for CNS responders, which revealed higher urinary levels of pyruvate isonicotinylhydrazone and β-glucosyl isonicotinylhydrazide and lower levels of acetylisoniazid compared to CNS non-responders. This suggested that the capacity for acetylation of INH was lower in CNS responders, leading to increased metabolism via conjugation with pyruvate and glucose. In addition, the endogenous metabolic profile of CNS responders revealed higher urinary levels of lactate and glucose, in comparison to CNS non-responders. Pharmacometabonomic analysis of the pre-dose (1)H NMR urinary spectra identified a metabolic signature that correlated with the development of INH-induced adverse CNS effects and may represent a means of predicting adverse events and acetylation capacity when challenged with high dose INH. Given the widespread use of INH for the treatment of tuberculosis, this pharmacometabonomic screening approach may have translational potential for patient stratification to minimize adverse events.