Spatio-temporal patterns of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

A security architecture for cloud storage combining proofs of retrievability and fairness

We investigate existing cloud storage schemes and identify limitations in each one based on the security services that they provide. We then propose a new cloud storage architecture that extends CloudProof of Popa et al. to provide availability assurance. This is accomplished by incorporating a proof of storage protocol. As a result, we obtain the first secure storage cloud computing scheme that furnishes all three properties of availability, fairness and freshness.

Geoproof : proofs of geographic location for cloud computing environment

Cloud computing has emerged as a major ICT trend and has been acknowledged as a key theme of industry by prominent ICT organisations. However, one of the major challenges that face the cloud computing concept and its global acceptance is how to secure and protect the data that is the property of the user. The geographic location of cloud data storage centres is an important issue for many organisations and individuals due to the regulations and laws that require data and operations to reside in specific geographic locations. Thus, data owners may need to ensure that their cloud providers do not compromise the SLA contract and move their data into another geographic location. This paper introduces an architecture for a new approach for geographic location assurance, which combines the proof of storage protocol (POS) and the distance-bounding protocol. This allows the client to check where their stored data is located, without relying on the word of the cloud provider. This architecture aims to achieve better security and more flexible geographic assurance within the environment of cloud computing.

A penalty-based grouping genetic algorithm for multiple composite SaaS components clustering in Cloud

Software as a Service (SaaS) in Cloud is getting more and more significant among software users and providers recently. A SaaS that is delivered as composite application has many benefits including reduced delivery costs, flexible offers of the SaaS functions and decreased subscription cost for users. However, this approach has introduced a new problem in managing the resources allocated to the composite SaaS. The resource allocation that has been done at the initial stage may be overloaded or wasted due to the dynamic environment of a Cloud. A typical data center resource management usually triggers a placement reconfiguration for the SaaS in order to maintain its performance as well as to minimize the resource used. Existing approaches for this problem often ignore the underlying dependencies between SaaS components. In addition, the reconfiguration also has to comply with SaaS constraints in terms of its resource requirements, placement requirement as well as its SLA. To tackle the problem, this paper proposes a penalty-based Grouping Genetic Algorithm for multiple composite SaaS components clustering in Cloud. The main objective is to minimize the resource used by the SaaS by clustering its component without violating any constraint. Experimental results demonstrate the feasibility and the scalability of the proposed algorithm.

Radiotherapy Monte Carlo simulation using cloud computing technology

Cloud computing allows for vast computational resources to be leveraged quickly and easily in bursts as and when required. Here we describe a technique that allows for Monte Carlo radiotherapy dose calculations to be performed using GEANT4 and executed in the cloud, with relative simulation cost and completion time evaluated as a function of machine count. As expected, simulation completion time decreases as 1=n for n parallel machines, and relative simulation cost is found to be optimal where n is a factor of the total simulation time in hours. Using the technique, we demonstrate the potential usefulness of cloud computing as a solution for rapid Monte Carlo simulation for radiotherapy dose calculation without the need for dedicated local computer hardware as a proof of principal. Funding source Cancer Australia (Department of Health and Ageing) Research Grant 614217

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

The El Chichon stratospheric cloud : solid particulates and settling rates

Sampling of the El Chichón stratospheric cloud in early May and in late July, 1982, showed that a significant proportion of the cloud consisted of solid particles between 2 μm and 40 μm size. In addition, many particles may have been part of larger aggregates or clusters that ranged in size from < 10 μm to > 50 μm. The majority of individual grains were angular aluminosilicate glass shards with various amounts of smaller, adhering particles. Surface features on individual grains include sulfuric acid droplets and larger (0.5 μm to 1 μm) sulfate gel droplets with various amounts of Na, Mg, Ca and Fe. The sulfate gels probably formed by the interaction of sulfur-rich gases and solid particles within the cloud soon after eruption. Ca-sulfate laths may have formed by condensation within the plume during eruption, or alternatively, at a later stage by the reaction of sulfuric acid aerosols with ash fragments within the stratospheric cloud. A Wilson-Huang formulation for the settling rate of individual particles qualitatively agrees with the observed particle-size distribution for a period at least four months after injection of material into the stratosphere. This result emphasizes the importance of particle shape in controlling the settling rate of volcanic ash from the stratosphere.

Public, private, or hybrid? What the upstream oil and gas industry can learn from other sectors about ‘the cloud’

Despite the compelling case for moving towards cloud computing, the upstream oil & gas industry faces several technical challenges—most notably, a pronounced emphasis on data security, a reliance on extremely large data sets, and significant legacy investments in information technology (IT) infrastructure—that make a full migration to the public cloud difficult at present. Private and hybrid cloud solutions have consequently emerged within the industry to yield as much benefit from cloud-based technologies as possible while working within these constraints. This paper argues, however, that the move to private and hybrid clouds will very likely prove only to be a temporary stepping stone in the industry’s technological evolution. By presenting evidence from other market sectors that have faced similar challenges in their journey to the cloud, we propose that enabling technologies and conditions will probably fall into place in a way that makes the public cloud a far more attractive option for the upstream oil & gas industry in the years ahead. The paper concludes with a discussion about the implications of this projected shift towards the public cloud, and calls for more of the industry’s services to be offered through cloud-based “apps.”

Cloud computing for healthcare research information sharing

With the widespread application of healthcare Information and Communication Technology (ICT), constructing a stable and sustainable data sharing circumstance has attracted rapidly growing attention in both academic research area and healthcare industry. Cloud computing is one of long dreamed visions of Healthcare Cloud (HC), which matches the need of healthcare information sharing directly to various health providers over the Internet, regardless of their location and the amount of data. In this paper, we discuss important research tool related to health information sharing and integration in HC and investigate the arising challenges and issues. We describe many potential solutions to provide more opportunities to implement EHR cloud. As well, we introduce the development of a HC related collaborative healthcare research example, thus illustrating the prospective of applying Cloud Computing in the health information science research.

Global forest governance

This book identifies the fundamental legal principles and the governance requirements of sustainable forest management. An analytical model for assessing forest regulation is created which identifies the doctrinal concepts that underpin forest regulation (justice, property, sovereignty and governance). It also highlights the dominant public international institutions involved in forest regulation (UNFF, UNFCCC and WB) which is followed by analysis of non-state international forest regulation (forest certification and ecosystem markets). The book concludes by making a number of practical recommendations for reform of global forest governance arrangements and suggested reforms for individual international forest institutions.

Cloud computing in the upstream oil & gas industry : a proposed way forward

Despite the compelling case for moving towards cloud computing, the upstream oil & gas industry faces several technical challenges—most notably, a pronounced emphasis on data security, a reliance on extremely large data sets, and significant legacy investments in information technology infrastructure—that make a full migration to the public cloud difficult at present. Private and hybrid cloud solutions have consequently emerged within the industry to yield as much benefit from cloud-based technologies as possible while working within these constraints. This paper argues, however, that the move to private and hybrid clouds will very likely prove only to be a temporary stepping stone in the industry's technological evolution. By presenting evidence from other market sectors that have faced similar challenges in their journey to the cloud, we propose that enabling technologies and conditions will probably fall into place in a way that makes the public cloud a far more attractive option for the upstream oil & gas industry in the years ahead. The paper concludes with a discussion about the implications of this projected shift towards the public cloud, and calls for more of the industry's services to be offered through cloud-based “apps.”

Opportunities for forest finance under the International climate change regime

The international climate change regime has the potential to increase revenue available for forest restoration projects in Commonwealth nations. There are three mechanisms which could be used to fund forest projects aimed at forest conservation, forest restoration and sustainable forest management. The first forest funding opportunity arises under the clean development mechanism, a flexibility mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol. The clean development mechanism allows Annex I parties (industrialised nations) to invest in emission reduction activities in non-Annex 1 (developing countries) and the establishment of forest sinks is an eligible clean development mechanism activity. Secondly, parties to the Kyoto Protocol are able to include sustainable forest management activities in their national carbon accounting. The international rules concerning this are called the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Guidelines. Thirdly, it is anticipated that at the upcoming Copenhagen negotiations that a Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) instrument will be created. This will provide a direct funding mechanism for those developing countries with tropical forests. Payments made under a REDD arrangement will be based upon the developing country with tropical forest cover agreeing to protect and conserve a designated forest estate. These three funding options available under the international climate change regime demonstrate that there is potential for forest finance within the regime. These opportunities are however hindered by a number of technical and policy barriers which prevent the ability of the regime to significantly increase funding for forest projects. There are two types of carbon markets, compliance carbon markets (Kyoto based) and voluntary carbon markets. Voluntary carbon markets are more flexible then compliance markets and as such offer potential to increase revenue available for sustainable forest projects.

Australia and Forest Carbon Partnerships : Indigenous Land Rights

One of the ways in which indigenous communities seek justice is through the formal recognition of their sovereign rights to land. Such recognition allows indigenous groups to maintain a physical and spiritual connection with their land and continue customary management of their land. Indigenous groups world over face significant hurdles in getting their customary rights to land recognized by legal systems. One of the main difficulties for indigenous groups in claiming customary land rights is the existence of a range of conflicting legal entitlements attaching to the land in question. In Australia, similar to New Zealand and Canada legal recognition to customary land is recognized through a grant of native title rights or through the establishment of land use agreement. In other jurisdictions such as Indonesia and Papua New Guinea a form of customary land title has been preserved and is recognized by the legal system. The implementation of REDD+ and other forms of forest carbon investment activities compounds the already complex arrangements surrounding legal recognition of customary land rights. Free, prior and informed consent of indigenous groups is essential for forest carbon investment on customary land. The attainment of such consent in practice remains challenging due to the number of conflicting interests often associated with forested land. This paper examines Australia’s experience in recongising indigenous land rights under its International Forest Carbon Initiative and under its domestic Carbon Credits (Carbon Farming Initiative) Act (Australia) 2011. Australia’s International Forest Carbon initiative has a budget of $273 million dollars. In 2008 the governments of Australia and Indonesia signed the Indonesia-Australia Forest Carbon Partnership Agreement. This paper will examine the indigenous land tenure and justice lessons learned from the implementation of the Kalimantan Forest and Climate Partnership (KFCP). The KFCP is $30 million dollar project taking place over 120,000 hectares of degraded and forested peatland in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. The KFCP project site contains seven villages of the Dayak Ngdu indigenous people. In 2011 Australia established a domestic Forest Carbon Initiative, which seeks to provide new economic opportunities for farmers, forest growers and indigenous landholders while helping the environmental by reducing carbon pollution. This paper will explore the manner in which indigenous people are able to participate within these scheme noting the limits and opportunities in deriving co-benefits for indigenous people in Australia under this scheme.