Increasing Returns and Competitive Equilibrium--The Content and Development of Marshall's Theory

This paper reviews Alfred Marshall's attempts to reconcile increasing returns and competition from the early economic writings to the later editions of his Principles. It is shown that while Marshall's final solution to the problem involved naming external economies the cause of increasing returns in a regime of competition , both the life cycle of the firm and internal economies remained necessary to his argument. Their function was to give some operation al content to the elusive concept of external economies.

Phase I study of GSK461364, a specific and competitive Polo-like Kinase 1 (PLK1) inhibitor in patients with advanced solid malignancies.

Purpose: GSK461364 is an ATP-competitive inhibitor of polo-like kinase 1 (Plk1). A phase I study of two schedules of intravenous GSK461364 was conducted. Experimental Design: GSK461364 was administered in escalating doses to patients with solid malignancies by two schedules, either on days 1, 8, and 15 of 28-day cycles (schedule A) or on days 1, 2, 8, 9, 15, and 16 of 28-day cycles (schedule B). Assessments included pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles, as well as marker expression studies in pretreatment tumor biopsies. Results: Forty patients received GSK461364: 23 patients in schedule A and 17 in schedule B. Dose-limiting toxicities (DLT) in schedule A at 300 mg (2 of 7 patients) and 225 mg (1 of 8 patients) cohorts included grade 4 neutropenia and/or grade 3–4 thrombocytopenia. In schedule B, DLTs of grade 4 pulmonary emboli and grade 4 neutropenia occurred at 7 or more days at 100 mg dose level. Venous thrombotic emboli (VTE) and myelosuppression were the most common grade 3–4, drug-related events. Pharmacokinetic data indicated that AUC (area under the curve) and C max (maximum concentration) were proportional across doses, with a half-life of 9 to 13 hours. Pharmacodynamic studies in circulating tumor cells revealed an increase in phosphorylated histone H3 (pHH3) following drug administration. A best response of prolonged stable disease of more than 16 weeks occurred in 6 (15%) patients, including 4 esophageal cancer patients. Those with prolonged stable disease had greater expression of Ki-67, pHH3, and Plk1 in archived tumor biopsies. Conclusions: The final recommended phase II dose for GSK461364 was 225 mg administered intravenously in schedule A. Because of the high incidence (20%) of VTE, for further clinical evaluation, GSK461364 should involve coadministration of prophylactic anticoagulation.

VPP´s multi-level negotiation in smart grids and competitive electricity markets

The increase of distributed generation (DG) has brought about new challenges in electrical networks electricity markets and in DG units operation and management. Several approaches are being developed to manage the emerging potential of DG, such as Virtual Power Players (VPPs), which aggregate DG plants; and Smart Grids, an approach that views generation and associated loads as a subsystem. This paper presents a multi-level negotiation mechanism for Smart Grids optimal operation and negotiation in the electricity markets, considering the advantages of VPPs’ management. The proposed methodology is implemented and tested in MASCEM – a multiagent electricity market simulator, developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations.

Am I shrinking? On clothing size and body size.

Comment on: Hughes LA, Schouten LJ, Goldbohm RA, van den Brandt PA, Weijenberg MP. Self-reported clothing size as a proxy measure for body size. Epidemiology. 2009 Sep;20(5):673-6. PMID: 19451821

Assessment of Energy Conservation in Indian Cement Industry and Forecasting of Co2 Emissions

Cement industry ranks 2nd in energy consumption among the industries in India. It is one of the major emitter of CO2, due to combustion of fossil fuel and calcination process. As the huge amount of CO2 emissions cause severe environment problems, the efficient and effective utilization of energy is a major concern in Indian cement industry. The main objective of the research work is to assess the energy cosumption and energy conservation of the Indian cement industry and to predict future trends in cement production and reduction of CO2 emissions. In order to achieve this objective, a detailed energy and exergy analysis of a typical cement plant in Kerala was carried out. The data on fuel usage, electricity consumption, amount of clinker and cement production were also collected from a few selected cement industries in India for the period 2001 - 2010 and the CO2 emissions were estimated. A complete decomposition method was used for the analysis of change in CO2 emissions during the period 2001 - 2010 by categorising the cement industries according to the specific thermal energy consumption. A basic forecasting model for the cement production trend was developed by using the system dynamic approach and the model was validated with the data collected from the selected cement industries. The cement production and CO2 emissions from the industries were also predicted with the base year as 2010. The sensitivity analysis of the forecasting model was conducted and found satisfactory. The model was then modified for the total cement production in India to predict the cement production and CO2 emissions for the next 21 years under three different scenarios. The parmeters that influence CO2 emissions like population and GDP growth rate, demand of cement and its production, clinker consumption and energy utilization are incorporated in these scenarios. The existing growth rate of the population and cement production in the year 2010 were used in the baseline scenario. In the scenario-1 (S1) the growth rate of population was assumed to be gradually decreasing and finally reach zero by the year 2030, while in scenario-2 (S2) a faster decline in the growth rate was assumed such that zero growth rate is achieved in the year 2020. The mitigation strategiesfor the reduction of CO2 emissions from the cement production were identified and analyzed in the energy management scenarioThe energy and exergy analysis of the raw mill of the cement plant revealed that the exergy utilization was worse than energy utilization. The energy analysis of the kiln system showed that around 38% of heat energy is wasted through exhaust gases of the preheater and cooler of the kiln sysetm. This could be recovered by the waste heat recovery system. A secondary insulation shell was also recommended for the kiln in the plant in order to prevent heat loss and enhance the efficiency of the plant. The decomposition analysis of the change in CO2 emissions during 2001- 2010 showed that the activity effect was the main factor for CO2 emissions for the cement industries since it is directly dependent on economic growth of the country. The forecasting model showed that 15.22% and 29.44% of CO2 emissions reduction can be achieved by the year 2030 in scenario- (S1) and scenario-2 (S2) respectively. In analysing the energy management scenario, it was assumed that 25% of electrical energy supply to the cement plants is replaced by renewable energy. The analysis revealed that the recovery of waste heat and the use of renewable energy could lead to decline in CO2 emissions 7.1% for baseline scenario, 10.9 % in scenario-1 (S1) and 11.16% in scenario-2 (S2) in 2030. The combined scenario considering population stabilization by the year 2020, 25% of contribution from renewable energy sources of the cement industry and 38% thermal energy from the waste heat streams shows that CO2 emissions from Indian cement industry could be reduced by nearly 37% in the year 2030. This would reduce a substantial level of greenhouse gas load to the environment. The cement industry will remain one of the critical sectors for India to meet its CO2 emissions reduction target. India’s cement production will continue to grow in the near future due to its GDP growth. The control of population, improvement in plant efficiency and use of renewable energy are the important options for the mitigation of CO2 emissions from Indian cement industries