A simple asthma prediction tool for preschool children with wheeze or cough

BACKGROUND Many preschool children have wheeze or cough, but only some have asthma later. Existing prediction tools are difficult to apply in clinical practice or exhibit methodological weaknesses. OBJECTIVE We sought to develop a simple and robust tool for predicting asthma at school age in preschool children with wheeze or cough. METHODS From a population-based cohort in Leicestershire, United Kingdom, we included 1- to 3-year-old subjects seeing a doctor for wheeze or cough and assessed the prevalence of asthma 5 years later. We considered only noninvasive predictors that are easy to assess in primary care: demographic and perinatal data, eczema, upper and lower respiratory tract symptoms, and family history of atopy. We developed a model using logistic regression, avoided overfitting with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty, and then simplified it to a practical tool. We performed internal validation and assessed its predictive performance using the scaled Brier score and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS Of 1226 symptomatic children with follow-up information, 345 (28%) had asthma 5 years later. The tool consists of 10 predictors yielding a total score between 0 and 15: sex, age, wheeze without colds, wheeze frequency, activity disturbance, shortness of breath, exercise-related and aeroallergen-related wheeze/cough, eczema, and parental history of asthma/bronchitis. The scaled Brier scores for the internally validated model and tool were 0.20 and 0.16, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.76 and 0.74, respectively. CONCLUSION This tool represents a simple, low-cost, and noninvasive method to predict the risk of later asthma in symptomatic preschool children, which is ready to be tested in other populations.

Ranking of tests for pain hypersensitivity according to their discriminative ability in chronic neck pain

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Quantitative sensory testing (QST) is widely used to investigate peripheral and central sensitization. However, the comparative performance of different QST for diagnostic or prognostic purposes is unclear. We explored the discriminative ability of different quantitative sensory tests in distinguishing between patients with chronic neck pain and pain-free control subjects and ranked these tests according to the extent of their association with pain hypersensitivity. METHODS We performed a case-control study in 40 patients and 300 control subjects. Twenty-six tests, including different modalities of pressure, heat, cold, and electrical stimulation, were used. As measures of discrimination, we estimated receiver operating characteristic curves and likelihood ratios. RESULTS The following quantitative sensory tests displayed the best discriminative value: (1) pressure pain threshold at the site of the most severe neck pain (fitted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.92), (2) reflex threshold to single electrical stimulation (0.90), (3) pain threshold to single electrical stimulation (0.89), (4) pain threshold to repeated electrical stimulation (0.87), and (5) pressure pain tolerance threshold at the site of the most severe neck pain (0.86). Only the first 3 could be used for both ruling in and out pain hypersensitivity. CONCLUSIONS Pressure stimulation at the site of the most severe pain and parameters of electrical stimulation were the most appropriate QST to distinguish between patients with chronic neck pain and asymptomatic control subjects. These findings may be used to select the tests in future diagnostic and longitudinal prognostic studies on patients with neck pain and to optimize the assessment of localized and spreading sensitization in chronic pain patients.

Validity of Charlson Comorbidity Index in patients hospitalised with acute coronary syndrome. Insights from the nationwide AMIS Plus registry 2002-2012

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to assess the impact of individual comorbid conditions as well as the weight assignment, predictive properties and discriminating power of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) on outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS A prospective multicentre observational study (AMIS Plus Registry) from 69 Swiss hospitals with 29 620 ACS patients enrolled from 2002 to 2012. The main outcome measures were in-hospital and 1-year follow-up mortality. RESULTS Of the patients, 27% were female (age 72.1±12.6 years) and 73% were male (64.2±12.9 years). 46.8% had comorbidities and they were less likely to receive guideline-recommended drug therapy and reperfusion. Heart failure (adjusted OR 1.88; 95% CI 1.57 to 2.25), metastatic tumours (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.60 to 3.19), renal diseases (OR 1.84; 95% CI 1.60 to 2.11) and diabetes (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.54) were strong predictors of in-hospital mortality. In this population, CCI weighted the history of prior myocardial infarction higher (1 instead of -0.4, 95% CI -1.2 to 0.3 points) but heart failure (1 instead of 3.7, 95% CI 2.6 to 4.7) and renal disease (2 instead of 3.5, 95% CI 2.7 to 4.4) lower than the benchmark, where all comorbidities, age and gender were used as predictors. However, the model with CCI and age has an identical discrimination to this benchmark (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were both 0.76). CONCLUSIONS Comorbidities greatly influenced clinical presentation, therapies received and the outcome of patients admitted with ACS. Heart failure, diabetes, renal disease or metastatic tumours had a major impact on mortality. CCI seems to be an appropriate prognostic indicator for in-hospital and 1-year outcomes in ACS patients. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER NCT01305785.

Cardiothoracic ratio in postmortem computed tomography: reliability and threshold for the diagnosis of cardiomegaly

The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of the cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) in postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) and to assess a CTR threshold for the diagnosis of cardiomegaly based on the weight of the heart at autopsy. PMCT data of 170 deceased human adults were retrospectively evaluated by two blinded radiologists. The CTR was measured on axial computed tomography images and the actual cardiac weight was weighed at autopsy. Inter-rater reliability, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated. Receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated to assess enlarged heart weight by CTR. The autopsy definition of cardiomegaly was based on normal values of the Zeek method (within a range of both, one or two SD) and the Smith method (within the given range). Intra-class correlation coefficients demonstrated excellent agreements (0.983) regarding CTR measurements. In 105/170 (62 %) cases the CTR in PMCT was >0.5, indicating enlarged heart weight, according to clinical references. The mean heart weight measured in autopsy was 405 ± 105 g. As a result, 114/170 (67 %) cases were interpreted as having enlarged heart weights according to the normal values of Zeek within one SD, while 97/170 (57 %) were within two SD. 100/170 (59 %) were assessed as enlarged according to Smith's normal values. The sensitivity/specificity of the 0.5 cut-off of the CTR for the diagnosis of enlarged heart weight was 78/71 % (Zeek one SD), 74/55 % (Zeek two SD), and 76/59 % (Smith), respectively. The discriminative power between normal heart weight and cardiomegaly was 79, 73, and 74 % for the Zeek (1SD/2SD) and Smith methods respectively. Changing the CTR threshold to 0.57 resulted in a minimum specificity of 95 % for all three definitions of cardiomegaly. With a CTR threshold of 0.57, cardiomegaly can be identified with a very high specificity. This may be useful if PMCT is used by forensic pathologists as a screening tool for medico-legal autopsies.

Resistance prediction in AML: analysis of 4601 patients from MRC/NCRI, HOVON/SAKK, SWOG and MD Anderson Cancer Center

Therapeutic resistance remains the principal problem in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We used area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs) to quantify our ability to predict therapeutic resistance in individual patients, where AUC=1.0 denotes perfect prediction and AUC=0.5 denotes a coin flip, using data from 4601 patients with newly diagnosed AML given induction therapy with 3+7 or more intense standard regimens in UK Medical Research Council/National Cancer Research Institute, Dutch–Belgian Cooperative Trial Group for Hematology/Oncology/Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, US cooperative group SWOG and MD Anderson Cancer Center studies. Age, performance status, white blood cell count, secondary disease, cytogenetic risk and FLT3-ITD/NPM1 mutation status were each independently associated with failure to achieve complete remission despite no early death (‘primary refractoriness’). However, the AUC of a bootstrap-corrected multivariable model predicting this outcome was only 0.78, indicating only fair predictive ability. Removal of FLT3-ITD and NPM1 information only slightly decreased the AUC (0.76). Prediction of resistance, defined as primary refractoriness or short relapse-free survival, was even more difficult. Our limited ability to forecast resistance based on routinely available pretreatment covariates provides a rationale for continued randomization between standard and new therapies and supports further examination of genetic and posttreatment data to optimize resistance prediction in AML.

At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide.

Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

ACCURACY OF THE BRCAPRO RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL IN MALES PRESENTING TO MD ANDERSON FOR BRCA TESTING

ACCURACY OF THE BRCAPRO RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL IN MALES PRESENTING TO MD ANDERSON FOR BRCA TESTING Publication No. _______ Carolyn A. Garby, B.S. Supervisory Professor: Banu Arun, M.D. Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC) syndrome is due to mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Women with HBOC have high risks to develop breast and ovarian cancers. Males with HBOC are commonly overlooked because male breast cancer is rare and other male cancer risks such as prostate and pancreatic cancers are relatively low. BRCA genetic testing is indicated for men as it is currently estimated that 4-40% of male breast cancers result from a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation (Ottini, 2010) and management recommendations can be made based on genetic test results. Risk assessment models are available to provide the individualized likelihood to have a BRCA mutation. Only one study has been conducted to date to evaluate the accuracy of BRCAPro in males and was based on a cohort of Italian males and utilized an older version of BRCAPro. The objective of this study is to determine if BRCAPro5.1 is a valid risk assessment model for males who present to MD Anderson Cancer Center for BRCA genetic testing. BRCAPro has been previously validated for determining the probability of carrying a BRCA mutation, however has not been further examined particularly in males. The total cohort consisted of 152 males who had undergone BRCA genetic testing. The cohort was stratified by indication for genetic counseling. Indications included having a known familial BRCA mutation, having a personal diagnosis of a BRCA-related cancer, or having a family history suggestive of HBOC. Overall there were 22 (14.47%) BRCA1+ males and 25 (16.45%) BRCA2+ males. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for the cohort overall, for each particular indication, as well as for each cancer subtype. Our findings revealed that the BRCAPro5.1 model had perfect discriminating ability at a threshold of 56.2 for males with breast cancer, however only 2 (4.35%) of 46 were found to have BRCA2 mutations. These results are significantly lower than the high approximation (40%) reported in previous literature. BRCAPro does perform well in certain situations for men. Future investigation of male breast cancer and men at risk for BRCA mutations is necessary to provide a more accurate risk assessment.

A second order in time modified Lagrange-Galerkin finite element method for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations

We introduce a second order in time modified Lagrange--Galerkin (MLG) method for the time dependent incompressible Navier--Stokes equations. The main ingredient of the new method is the scheme proposed to calculate in a more efficient manner the Galerkin projection of the functions transported along the characteristic curves of the transport operator. We present error estimates for velocity and pressure in the framework of mixed finite elements when either the mini-element or the $P2/P1$ Taylor--Hood element are used.

Estudio de la fiabilidad de diodos LEDs rojos mediante ensayos acelerados

El objetivo de este Proyecto Final de Carrera es la realización de un ensayo de fiabilidad de componentes electrónicos, más concretamente de diodos LED, con el fin de estudiar su comportamiento a lo largo del tiempo de vida. Debido a la larga duración de los LEDs, un ensayo de este tipo podría durar años, por lo que es necesario realizar un ensayo acelerado que acorte significativamente el tiempo del experimento, para ello, han de someterse a esfuerzos mayores que en condiciones normales de funcionamiento. En la actualidad, los LEDs son usados en infinidad de aplicaciones, debido a sus múltiples ventajas respecto a otros sistemas de iluminación o señalización convencionales. En numerosos casos se utilizan en el exterior, soportando cambios de temperaturas y de humedad elevados, de ahí, la importancia de realizar ensayos de fiabilidad, que muestren sus posibles causas de fallo, los efectos que producen estos fallos y los aspectos de diseño, fabricación y mantenimiento que puedan afectarles. Como consecuencia del envejecimiento de los LEDs, pueden mostrar una reducción en el flujo luminoso y un empeoramiento de las propiedades cromáticas. Los LEDs utilizados en este Proyecto son de AlInGaP, rojos, de alta luminosidad. Para acelerar el ensayo, se utilizará una cámara climática que simule unas condiciones ambientales determinadas, en concreto, 85º C y 85% HR. Además, se realiza una monitorización periódica, siendo necesaria la utilización de un sistema automático de medida diseñado en LabVIEW, el cual, de manera simultánea realizará medidas y gestionará la inyección de corriente a los LEDs mientras se encuentren en el interior de la cámara climática. Se fabrican dos placas con 4 tiras de LEDs para inyectar un nivel de corriente diferente en cada una y así poder comparar la degradación en función de este parámetro. Fuera de la cámara climática se van a medir las curvas características de tensióncorriente de cada LED a una temperatura ambiente constante, fijada por un módulo Peltier. También se realizarán medidas de potencia luminosa y de espectro de emisión. Se analizarán los resultados obtenidos de cada una de las medidas y se realizará un estudio de fiabilidad y del proceso de degradación sufrido por los LEDs. Este PFC se puede dividir en las siguientes fases de trabajo, siendo el ensayo la parte más larga en el tiempo: · Búsqueda de bibliografía, documentación y normas aplicables. · Familiarización con los equipos y software, estudiando el manejo y funcionamiento de la cámara climática temperatura-humedad y el software a aplicar (LabVIEW y software del espectrómetro). · Desarrollo del hardware y sistemas necesarios para la realización del ensayo. · Realización del ensayo. · Análisis de resultados. ABSTRACT. The objective of this end of degree project is conducting an essay reliability of electronic components, more concretely LEDs, in order to study their behavior throughout its lifespan. Due to the long duration of the LEDs, a essay of this type could last for years, so it is necessary to perform an accelerated essay which significantly shorten the time of the experiment, testing should be subjected to greater efforts than in normal operation. Today, LEDs are used in many applications due to its many advantages over other conventional lighting systems or signaling. In numerous cases are used on the outside, enduring high changes in temperature and humidity, hence the importance of reliability essays, showing the possible causes of failure, the effects produced by these failures and aspects of design, manufacturing and maintenance that may affect them. As a result of the ageing of the LEDs, they may show a reduction in light output and a worsening of the chromatic properties. The LEDs used in this project are AlInGaP, red and high brightness. To speed up the essay will be used a climatic chamber to simulate specific environmental conditions, specifically 85 ° C and 85 % RH. In addition, is pe rformed a periodic monitoring using an automatic measurement system designed in LabVIEW , which , simultaneously will performed measurements and will manage the injection current to the LEDs while are inside of the climatic chamber. 4 strips of LEDs are created to inject a different level of current in each, so can compare the degradation in terms of this parameter. Out of the climatic chamber are obtained the characteristic curves of voltage-current of each LED at a constant room temperature, set by a Peltier module. Also, measures light power and the emitted spectrum. The results of each of the measures and a reliability study and degradation suffered by the LEDs will be discussed. This PFC can be divided into the following steps, the essay being the longest part: • Search bibliography, documentation and standards. • Familiarization with equipment and software, studying the management and the operation of the temperature-humidity environmental chamber and applying software (LabVIEW applications and spectrometer software). • Development of hardware and systems necessary for the conduct of the essay. • Carrying out the essay. • Analysis of results.

Stability Analysis of a Run-of-River Diversion Hydropower Plant With Surge Tank And Spillway in the Head Pond

Run-of-river hydropower plants usually lack significant storage capacity; therefore, the more adequate control strategy would consist of keeping a constant water level at the intake pond in order to harness the maximum amount of energy from the river flow or to reduce the surface flooded in the head pond. In this paper, a standard PI control system of a run-of-river diversion hydropower plant with surge tank and a spillway in the head pond that evacuates part of the river flow plant is studied. A stability analysis based on the Routh-Hurwitz criterion is carried out and a practical criterion for tuning the gains of the PI controller is proposed. Conclusions about the head pond and surge tank areas are drawn from the stability analysis. Finally, this criterion is applied to a real hydropower plant in design state; the importance of considering the spillway dimensions and turbine characteristic curves for adequate tuning of the controller gains is highlighted

Clinical prediction of large vessel occlusion in anterior circulation stroke: mission impossible?

Simple clinical scores to predict large vessel occlusion (LVO) in acute ischemic stroke would be helpful to triage patients in the prehospital phase. We assessed the ability of various combinations of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) subitems and published stroke scales (i.e., RACE scale, 3I-SS, sNIHSS-8, sNIHSS-5, sNIHSS-1, mNIHSS, a-NIHSS items profiles A-E, CPSS1, CPSS2, and CPSSS) to predict LVO on CT or MR arteriography in 1085 consecutive patients (39.4 % women, mean age 67.7 years) with anterior circulation strokes within 6 h of symptom onset. 657 patients (61 %) had an occlusion of the internal carotid artery or the M1/M2 segment of the middle cerebral artery. Best cut-off value of the total NIHSS score to predict LVO was 7 (PPV 84.2 %, sensitivity 81.0 %, specificity 76.6 %, NPV 72.4 %, ACC 79.3 %). Receiver operating characteristic curves of various combinations of NIHSS subitems and published scores were equally or less predictive to show LVO than the total NIHSS score. At intersection of sensitivity and specificity curves in all scores, at least 1/5 of patients with LVO were missed. Best odds ratios for LVO among NIHSS subitems were best gaze (9.6, 95 %-CI 6.765-13.632), visual fields (7.0, 95 %-CI 3.981-12.370), motor arms (7.6, 95 %-CI 5.589-10.204), and aphasia/neglect (7.1, 95 %-CI 5.352-9.492). There is a significant correlation between clinical scores based on the NIHSS score and LVO on arteriography. However, if clinically relevant thresholds are applied to the scores, a sizable number of LVOs are missed. Therefore, clinical scores cannot replace vessel imaging.

DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder:in search of essential behaviours for diagnosis

Background: Despite initial concerns about the sensitivity of the proposed diagnostic criteria for DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD; e.g. Gibbs et al., 2012; McPartland et al., 2012), evidence is growing that the DSM-5 criteria provides an inclusive description with both good sensitivity and specificity (e.g. Frazier et al., 2012; Kent, Carrington et al., 2013). The capacity of the criteria to provide high levels of sensitivity and specificity comparable with DSM-IV-TR however relies on careful measurement to ensure that appropriate items from diagnostic instruments map onto the new DSM-5 descriptions.Objectives: To use an existing DSM-5 diagnostic algorithm (Kent, Carrington et .al., 2013) to identify a set of ‘essential’ behaviors sufficient to make a reliable and accurate diagnosis of DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) across age and ability level. Methods: Specific behaviors were identified and tested from the recently published DSM-5 algorithm for the Diagnostic Interview for Social and Communication Disorders (DISCO). Analyses were run on existing DISCO datasets, with a total participant sample size of 335. Three studies provided step-by-step development towards identification of a minimum set of items. Study 1 identified the most highly discriminating items (p<.0001). Study 2 used a lower selection threshold than in Study 1 (p<.05) to facilitate better representation of the full DSM-5 ASD profile. Study 3 included additional items previously reported as significantly more frequent in individuals with higher ability. The discriminant validity of all three item sets was tested using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. Finally, sensitivity across age and ability was investigated in a subset of individuals with ASD (n=190).Results: Study 1 identified an item set (14 items) with good discriminant validity, but which predominantly measured social-communication behaviors (11/14). The Study 2 item set (48 items) better represented the DSM-5 ASD and had good discriminant validity, but the item set lacked sensitivity for individuals with higher ability. The final Study 3 adjusted item set (54 items) improved sensitivity for individuals with higher ability and performance and was comparable to the published DISCO DSM-5 algorithm.Conclusions: This work represents a first attempt to derive a reduced set of behaviors for DSM-5 directly from an existing standardized ASD developmental history interview. Further work involving existing ASD diagnostic tools with community-based and well characterized research samples will be required to replicate these findings and exploit their potential to contribute to a more efficient and focused ASD diagnostic process.

DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder:in search of essential behaviours for diagnosis

The objective of this study was to identify a set of 'essential' behaviours sufficient for diagnosis of DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Highly discriminating, 'essential' behaviours were identified from the published DSM-5 algorithm developed for the Diagnostic Interview for Social and Communication Disorders (DISCO). Study 1 identified a reduced item set (48 items) with good predictive validity (as measured using receiver operating characteristic curves) that represented all symptom sub-domains described in the DSM-5 ASD criteria but lacked sensitivity for individuals with higher ability. An adjusted essential item set (54 items; Study 2) had good sensitivity when applied to individuals with higher ability and performance was comparable to the published full DISCO DSM-5 algorithm. Investigation at the item level revealed that the most highly discriminating items predominantly measured social-communication behaviours. This work represents a first attempt to derive a reduced set of behaviours for DSM-5 directly from an existing standardised ASD developmental history interview and has implications for the use of DSM-5 criteria for clinical and research practice. © 2014 The Authors.

Estimating glomerular filtration rate in acute coronary syndromes: Different equations, different mortality risk prediction

AIMS: Renal dysfunction is a powerful predictor of adverse outcomes in patients hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome. Three new glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimating equations recently emerged, based on serum creatinine (CKD-EPIcreat), serum cystatin C (CKD-EPIcyst) or a combination of both (CKD-EPIcreat/cyst), and they are currently recommended to confirm the presence of renal dysfunction. Our aim was to analyse the predictive value of these new estimated GFR (eGFR) equations regarding mid-term mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome, and compare them with the traditional Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD-4) formula. METHODS AND RESULTS: 801 patients admitted for acute coronary syndrome (age 67.3±13.3 years, 68.5% male) and followed for 23.6±9.8 months were included. For each equation, patient risk stratification was performed based on eGFR values: high-risk group (eGFR<60ml/min per 1.73m2) and low-risk group (eGFR⩾60ml/min per 1.73m2). The predictive performances of these equations were compared using area under each receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). Overall risk stratification improvement was assessed by the net reclassification improvement index. The incidence of the primary endpoint was 18.1%. The CKD-EPIcyst equation had the highest overall discriminate performance regarding mid-term mortality (AUC 0.782±0.20) and outperformed all other equations (ρ<0.001 in all comparisons). When compared with the MDRD-4 formula, the CKD-EPIcyst equation accurately reclassified a significant percentage of patients into more appropriate risk categories (net reclassification improvement index of 11.9% (p=0.003)). The CKD-EPIcyst equation added prognostic power to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score in the prediction of mid-term mortality. CONCLUSION: The CKD-EPIcyst equation provides a novel and improved method for assessing the mid-term mortality risk in patients admitted for acute coronary syndrome, outperforming the most widely used formula (MDRD-4), and improving the predictive value of the GRACE score. These results reinforce the added value of cystatin C as a risk marker in these patients.