984 resultados para Change-points


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Digital analysis of the occlusal contacts can be performed with the T-scan device (T Scan III, TekScan, Boston, USA). However, the thickness of the interocclusal T-scan sheet (100 μm) may lead to a displacement of the mandible. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the T-scan sheet on the position of the mandibular condyles in maximum intercuspidation. Twenty dentate subjects with healthy jaw function were enrolled in the study. An ultrasonic axiography device was used to measure the position of the condyles. Ten 3D condyle positions in maximum intercuspidation of the teeth were recorded: first the reference position without the sheet, then 3 times without the sheet, 3 times with the sheet, and finally again 3 times without the sheet. There was a statistically significant difference (Wilcoxon matched pairs test) between the condyle positions with and without the interocclusally positioned T-scan sheet (P < 0.0005). The T-scan device lead to a displacement of the condyles of about 1 mm mainly in ventral direction (P = 0.005). Thus, occlusal analysis is not performed in physiological, maximum intercuspidation. This has to be considered when interpreting the measured contact points.

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An experiment was conducted to determine the effect of grazing versus zero-grazing on energy expenditure (EE), feeding behaviour and physical activity in dairy cows at different stages of lactation. Fourteen Holstein cows were subjected to two treatments in a repeated crossover design with three experimental series (S1, S2, and S3) reflecting increased days in milk (DIM). At the beginning of each series, cows were on average at 38, 94 and 171 (standard deviation (SD) 10.8) DIM, respectively. Each series consisted of two periods containing a 7-d adaptation and a 7-d collection period each. Cows either grazed on pasture for 16–18.5 h per day or were kept in a freestall barn and had ad libitum access to herbage harvested from the same paddock. Herbage intake was estimated using the double alkane technique. On each day of the collection period, EE of one cow in the barn and of one cow on pasture was determined for 6 h by using the 13C bicarbonate dilution technique, with blood sample collection done either manually in the barn or using an automatic sampling system on pasture. Furthermore, during each collection period physical activity and feeding behaviour of cows were recorded over 3 d using pedometers and behaviour recorders. Milk yield decreased with increasing DIM (P<0.001) but was similar with both treatments. Herbage intake was lower (P<0.01) for grazing cows (16.8 kg dry matter (DM)/d) compared to zero-grazing cows (18.9 kg DM/d). The lowest (P<0.001) intake was observed in S1 and similar intakes were observed in S2 and S3. Within the 6-h measurement period, grazing cows expended 19% more (P<0.001) energy (319 versus 269 kJ/kg metabolic body size (BW0.75)) than zero-grazing cows and differences in EE did not change with increasing DIM. Grazing cows spent proportionally more (P<0.001) time walking and less time standing (P<0.001) and lying (P<0.05) than zero-grazing cows. The proportion of time spent eating was greater (P<0.001) and that of time spent ruminating was lower (P<0.05) for grazing cows compared to zero-grazing cows. In conclusion, lower feed intake along with the unchanged milk production indicates that grazing cows mobilized body reserves to cover additional energy requirements which were at least partly caused by more physical activity. However, changes in cows׳ behaviour between the considered time points during lactation were too small so that differences in EE remained similar between treatments with increasing DIM.

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The 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states with very high certainty that anthropogenic emissions have caused measurable changes in the physical ocean environment. These changes are summarized with special focus on those that are predicted to have the strongest, most direct effects on ocean biological processes; namely, ocean warming and associated phenomena (including stratification and sea level rise) as well as deoxygenation and ocean acidification. The biological effects of these changes are then discussed for microbes (including phytoplankton), plants, animals, warm and cold-water corals, and ecosystems. The IPCC AR5 highlighted several areas related to both the physical and biological processes that required further research. As a rapidly developing field, there have been many pertinent studies published since the cut off dates for the AR5, which have increased our understanding of the processes at work. This study undertook an extensive review of recently published literature to update the findings of the AR5 and provide a synthesized review on the main issues facing future oceans. The level of detail provided in the AR5 and subsequent work provided a basis for constructing projections of the state of ocean ecosystems in 2100 under two the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and 8.5. Finally the review highlights notable additions, clarifications and points of departure from AR5 provided by subsequent studies.

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The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.

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The number of well-dated pollen diagrams in Europe has increased considerably over the last 30 years and many of them have been submitted to the European Pollen Database (EPD). This allows for the construction of increasingly precise maps of Holocene vegetation change across the continent. Chronological information in the EPD has been expressed in uncalibrated radiocarbon years, and most chronologies to date are based on this time scale. Here we present new chronologies for most of the datasets stored in the EPD based on calibrated radiocarbon years. Age information associated with pollen diagrams is often derived from the pollen stratigraphy itself or from other sedimentological information. We reviewed these chronological tie points and assigned uncertainties to them. The steps taken to generate the new chronologies are described and the rationale for a new classification system for age uncertainties is introduced. The resulting chronologies are fit for most continental-scale questions. They may not provide the best age model for particular sites, but may be viewed as general purpose chronologies. Taxonomic particularities of the data stored in the EPD are explained. An example is given of how the database can be queried to select samples with appropriate age control as well as the suitable taxonomic level to answer a specific research question.

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Current research in the domain of geographic information science considers possibilities of including another dimension, time, which is generally missing to this point. Users interested in changes have few functions available to compare datasets of spatial configurations at different points in time. Such a comparison of spatial configurations requires large amounts of manual labor. An automatic derivation of changes would decrease amounts of manual labor. The thesis introduces a set of methods that allows for an automatic derivation of changes. These methods analyze identity and topological states of objects in snapshots and derive types of change for the specific configuration of data. The set of change types that can be computed by the methods presented includes continuous changes such as growing, shrinking, and moving of objects. For these continuous changes identity remains unchanged, while topological relations might be altered over time. Also discrete changes such as merging and splitting where both identity and topology are affected can be derived. Evaluation of the methods using a prototype application with simple examples suggests that the methods compute uniquely and correctly the type of change that applied in spatial scenarios captured in two snapshots.

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This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

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Changes in Atlantic deep water circulation were reconstructed by comparing the benthic foraminiferal delta13C record at ODP Site 1090 in the South Atlantic with similar records from the North Atlantic (Sites 982, 607, 925, 929) and deep Pacific (Site 849) oceans. Important deep water circulation changes occurred in the early Pleistocene at 1.55 Myr and during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition at 0.9 Myr. At 1.55 Myr, glacial delta13C values in the Southern Ocean became significantly lower than those in the deep Pacific, establishing a pattern that persisted throughout the late Pleistocene. We propose that the lowering of delta13C values of Southern Component Water (SCW) at this time resulted from expansion of sea ice and reduced ventilation of deep water during glacial periods after marine isotope stage 52. Accompanying this change in Southern Ocean deep water circulation was enhanced interhemispheric coupling between the North and South Atlantic after 1.55 Myr. At ~0.9 Myr, the magnitude of glacial-to-interglacial variabilityin delta13C increased and shifted to a longer frequency (100 kyr) along with oceanic delta18O (ice volume). Calculation of percent Northern Component Water (NCW) using Site 1090 as the SCW end member yielded 20-30% less reduction of NCW during glacial periods of the late Pleistocene. Also, a trend toward reduced glacial suppression of NCW during the past 400 kyr is not evident. The apparent decoupling of ice volume and deep water circulation reported previously maybe an artifact of using a Pacific, rather than a Southern Ocean, carbon isotopic record to calculate past mixing ratios of NCW and SCW.

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It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

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We report the paleomagnetic and rock magnetic results from discrete sample analysis of sediments from Walvis Ridge, Leg 208 of the Ocean Drilling Program. In an effort to refine the shipboard magnetostratigraphy, alternating field and thermal demagnetization of discrete samples were carried out, predominantly on samples from Sites 1262 and 1267. Results are generally consistent with the shipboard pass-through cryomagnetometer data, though in some cases the discrete samples resolved ambiguities in the reversal record. Significantly, the C24r/C24n reversal boundary was identified at Sites 1262 and 1267, and most boundaries in the Paleocene and Upper Cretaceous sections are now identified to within 10-30 cm. Magnetic mineralogy results show that prior to the late Miocene, the predominant detrital magnetic component was coarse-grained magnetite and that after the late Miocene, titanomagnetite has also been present. This suggests a possible change in detrital source at that time.