Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 1. The role of habitat pattern and quantity, stochasticity and dispersal

We examined a remnant host plant (Primula veris L.) habitat network that was last inhabited by the rare butterfly Hamearis lucina L. in north Wales in 1943, to assess the relative contribution of several spatial parameters to its regional extinction. We first examined relationships between P. veris characteristics and H. lucina eggs in surviving H. lucina populations, and used these to predict the suitability and potential carrying capacity of the habitat network in north Wales. This resulted in an estimate of roughly 4500 eggs (ca 227 adults). We developed a discrete space, discrete time metapopulation model to evaluate the relative contribution of dispersal distance, habitat and environmental stochasticity as possible causes of extinction. We simulated the potential persistence of the butterfly in the current network as well as in three artificial (historical and present) habitat networks that differed in the quantity (current and X3) and fragmentation of the habitat (current and aggregated). We identified that reduced habitat quantity and increased isolation would have increased the probability of regional extinction, in conjunction with environmental stochasticity and H. lucina's dispersal distance. This general trend did not change in a qualitative manner when we modified the ability of dispersing females to stay in, and find suitable habitats (by changing the size of the grid cells used in the model). Contrary to most metapopulation model predictions, system persistence declined with increasing migration rate, suggesting that the mortality of migrating individuals in fragmented landscapes may pose significant risks to system-wide persistence. Based on model predictions for the present landscape we argue that a major programme of habitat restoration would be required for a re-established metapopulation to persist for > 100 years.

Regulatory Change and Capital Adjustment of US Credit Unions

We investigate the determinants of US credit union capital-to-assets ratios, before and after the implementation of the current capital adequacy regulatory framework in 2000. Capitalization varies pro-cyclically, and until the financial crisis credit unions classified as adequately capitalized or below followed a faster adjustment path than well capitalized credit unions. This pattern was reversed, however, in the aftermath of the crisis. The introduction of the PCA regulatory regime achieved a reduction in the proportion of credit unions classified as adequately capitalized or below that continued until the onset of the crisis. Since the crisis, the speed of recovery of credit unions in this category following an adverse capitalization shock was sharply reduced.

Changes in the magnitude and pattern of translocation of photoassimilated ¹CO in soybean plants following an acute exposure to gamma radiation /

Young soybean plants (Glycine ~. L. cultivar Harosoy '63), grown under controlled conditions, were exposed to gamma radiation on a single occasion. One hour following exposure to 3,750 rads, the mature trifoliate leaf of the soybean plant was isolated in a closed system and permitted to photoassimilate approximately 1-5 pCi of 14C02 for 15 minutes. After an additional 45 minute-period, the plant was sacrificed and the magnitude of translocation and distribution pattern of 14C determined. In the non-irradiated plants 18~ of the total 14C recovered was outside the fed leaf blades and of this translocated 14c, 28~ was above the node of the fed leaf, 38~ in the stem below the node, 28~ in the roots and 7~ in the petiole. As well, in the irradiated plants, a smaller per cent (6~) of the total 14 C recovered was exported out of the source leaf blades. Of this translocated 14c , a smaller per cent (20~) was found in the apical region above the node of the source leaf and a higher per cent (45~) was recovered from the stem below the node and in the petiole (11~). The per cent of exported 14 C recovered from the root was unaffected by the radiation. Replacement of the shoot apex with 20 ppm IAA immediately following irradiation, only J partially increased the magnitude of translocation but did completely restore the pattern of distribution to that observed in the non-irradiated plants. From supplementary studies showing a radiationinduced reduction of photosynthetic rates in the source leaf and a reduction of the cumulative stem and leaf lengths in the apical sink region, the observed effects of radiation on the translocation process have been correlated to damage incurred by the source and sink regions. These data suggest that the reduction in the magnitude of translocation is the result of damage to both the source and sink regions rather than the phloem conducting tissue itself, whereas the change in the pattern of translocation is probably the result of a reduced rate of 14C-assimilate movement caused by a radiation-induced decrease of sink metabolism, especially the decrease in the metabolism of the apical sink.

Educating for Community Resilience: How the Work of Thomas Homer-Dixon and JohnDewey's Pattern of Inquiry Can Help Us Prepare for the Ecological and Social Challenges of the 21st Century

Scientists have overwhelmingly concluded that global warming occurs as a consequence of human activities and that climate change, combined with the depletion of resources, could have catastrophic consequences for the human civilization later this century. However, in political circles and in the public sphere these conclusions are not taken seriously, or they are laid aside for future generations to deal with; at the same time, significant efforts are being deployed to discredit the scientific evidence. In this thesis I have studied the positions of climate scientists as well as those of climate change deniers, and I also examined how their points of view are likely to impact the interests and habits of corporations and citizens. The work of Thomas Homer-Dixon was used as an important source for analyzing the complex interaction between our natural, economic, and social systems, and John Dewey's pattern of inquiry provided the theoretical foundation for an analysis of the current crisis and its possible solutions. No concerted action to deal with climate change has yet been taken by the leaders of the Western world; I corroborated data from four reliable sources (Hansen, 2009; IPCC, 2007; Lynas, 2007; Steffen, 2011) regarding several development scenarios and their likely consequences on greenhouse gas emissions, and I concluded that a future temperature increase of more than 2°C appears now as unavoidable. In the light of this conclusion I argue that education for increasing the resilience of smaller communities is a realistic alternative that can offer some hope in dealing with the challenges ahead.

«Le grand retour» : le processus de rapatriement chez l’étudiant en échange à l’international

L’augmentation rapide de l’interdépendance mondiale, provoquée par le développement de la mondialisation, exige une redéfinition de la notion traditionnelle de l’éducation supérieure. Au Canada, comme dans le reste du monde, plusieurs universitaires, fonctionnaires du gouvernement et étudiants insistent maintenant sur l’intégration de l’internationalisation dans l’éducation supérieure à travers des échanges interculturels et des études à l’étranger, dans l’espoir que les générations canadiennes à venir développent une perspective globale et deviennent des « citoyens du monde » (Comité consultatif sur la stratégie du Canada en matière d’éducation internationale, 2012). Pourtant, pour garantir que l’étudiant qui participe à un échange profite le plus de son expérience internationale, nous devrons comprendre comment une telle expérience l’influence tant à court terme qu’à long terme. Bien que d’autres études se soient concentrées sur le court terme (le séjour à l’étranger et ses impacts immédiats), peu ont examiné le retour de l’étudiant, sa réintégration dans sa société d’origine et les effets subséquents à long terme, tels que les développements personnels qui pourraient suivre le rapatriement. Cette étude qualitative examine les témoignages de huit étudiants au premier cycle de l’Université de Montréal sur la façon dont ils ont vécu leur rapatriement à Montréal après un échange pédagogique à l’étranger. Quoique certains chercheurs présentent la notion de rapatriement comme une série d’événements déconnectés, notre analyse fait ressortir une tendance similaire dans tous nos témoignages qui nous permet dorénavant de considérer ce rapatriement comme un processus en trois étapes interconnectées. En empruntant à la théorie Intercultural Personhood de Kim (2008), nous sommes désormais en mesure de qualifier ces trois étapes comme étant le stress, l’adaptation et l’évolution. Non seulement cette interprétation nous aide à mieux comprendre les difficultés rencontrées par l’étudiant à l’occasion de son retour, mais elle facilite également l’identification des transformations identitaires qui apparaissent à ce moment-là et la manière dont ces transformations influencent le processus de rapatriement.

Permutation Entropy Based Analysis of Complex Signals for Characterising Change in System Dynamics

Timely detection of sudden change in dynamics that adversely affect the performance of systems and quality of products has great scientific relevance. This work focuses on effective detection of dynamical changes of real time signals from mechanical as well as biological systems using a fast and robust technique of permutation entropy (PE). The results are used in detecting chatter onset in machine turning and identifying vocal disorders from speech signal.Permutation Entropy is a nonlinear complexity measure which can efficiently distinguish regular and complex nature of any signal and extract information about the change in dynamics of the process by indicating sudden change in its value. Here we propose the use of permutation entropy (PE), to detect the dynamical changes in two non linear processes, turning under mechanical system and speech under biological system.Effectiveness of PE in detecting the change in dynamics in turning process from the time series generated with samples of audio and current signals is studied. Experiments are carried out on a lathe machine for sudden increase in depth of cut and continuous increase in depth of cut on mild steel work pieces keeping the speed and feed rate constant. The results are applied to detect chatter onset in machining. These results are verified using frequency spectra of the signals and the non linear measure, normalized coarse-grained information rate (NCIR).PE analysis is carried out to investigate the variation in surface texture caused by chatter on the machined work piece. Statistical parameter from the optical grey level intensity histogram of laser speckle pattern recorded using a charge coupled device (CCD) camera is used to generate the time series required for PE analysis. Standard optical roughness parameter is used to confirm the results.Application of PE in identifying the vocal disorders is studied from speech signal recorded using microphone. Here analysis is carried out using speech signals of subjects with different pathological conditions and normal subjects, and the results are used for identifying vocal disorders. Standard linear technique of FFT is used to substantiate thc results.The results of PE analysis in all three cases clearly indicate that this complexity measure is sensitive to change in regularity of a signal and hence can suitably be used for detection of dynamical changes in real world systems. This work establishes the application of the simple, inexpensive and fast algorithm of PE for the benefit of advanced manufacturing process as well as clinical diagnosis in vocal disorders.

Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the study of tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of two different types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and Mountain Rainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated with a statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a better understanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special case of segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and the change in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephras using Bayesian statistical calibration

Simulating SOC changes in 11 land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and Century models

Land use and land cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon have major implications for regional and global carbon (C) cycling. Cattle pasture represents the largest single use (about 70%) of this once-forested land in most of the region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the RothC and Century models at estimating soil organic C (SOC) changes under forest-to-pasture conditions in the Brazilian Amazon. We used data from 11 site-specific 'forest to pasture' chronosequences with the Century Ecosystem Model (Century 4.0) and the Rothamsted C Model (RothC 26.3). The models predicted that forest clearance and conversion to well managed pasture would cause an initial decline in soil C stocks (0-20 cm depth), followed in the majority of cases by a slow rise to levels exceeding those under native forest. One exception to this pattern was a chronosequence in Suia-Missu, which is under degraded pasture. In three other chronosequences the recovery of soil C under pasture appeared to be only to about the same level as under the previous forest. Statistical tests were applied to determine levels of agreement between simulated SOC stocks and observed stocks for all the sites within the 11 chronosequences. The models also provided reasonable estimates (coefficient of correlation = 0.8) of the microbial biomass C in the 0-10 cm soil layer for three chronosequences, when compared with available measured data. The Century model adequately predicted the magnitude and the overall trend in delta C-13 for the six chronosequences where measured 813 C data were available. This study gave independent tests of model performance, as no adjustments were made to the models to generate outputs. Our results suggest that modelling techniques can be successfully used for monitoring soil C stocks and changes, allowing both the identification of current patterns in the soil and the projection of future conditions. Results were used and discussed not only to evaluate soil C dynamics but also to indicate soil C sequestration opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon region. Moreover, modelling studies in these 'forest to pasture' systems have important applications, for example, the calculation of CO, emissions from land use change in national greenhouse gas inventories. (0 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Floodplain environmental change during the Younger Dryas and Holocene in Northwest Europe: Insights from the lower Kennet Valley, south central England

Many lowland rivers across northwest Europe exhibit broadly similar behavioural responses to glacial-interglacial transitions and landscape development. Difficulties exist in assessing these, largely because the evidence from many rivers remains limited and fragmentary. Here we address this issue in the context of the river Kennet, a tributary of the Thames, since c. 13,000 cal BP. Some similarities with other rivers are present, suggesting that regional climatic shifts are important controls. The Kennet differs from the regional pattern in a number of ways. The rate of response to sudden climatic change, particularly at the start of the Holocene and also mid-Holocene forest clearance, appears very high. This may reflect abrupt shifts between two catchment scale hydrological states arising from contemporary climates, land use change and geology. Stadial hydrology is dominated by nival regimes, with limited winter infiltration and high spring and summer runoff. Under an interglacial climate, infiltration is more significant. The probable absence of permafrost in the catchment means that a lag between the two states due to its gradual decay is unlikely. Palaeoecology, supported by radiocarbon dates, suggests that, at the very start of the Holocene, a dramatic episode of fine sediment deposition across most of the valley floor occurred, lasting 500-1000 years. A phase of peat accumulation followed as mineral sediment supply declined. A further shift led to tufa deposition, initially in small pools, then across the whole floodplain area, with the river flowing through channels cut in tufa and experiencing repeated avulsion. Major floods, leaving large gravel bars that still form positive relief features on the floodplain, followed mid-Holocene floodplain stability. Prehistoric deforestation is likely to be the cause of this flooding, inducing a major environmental shift with significantly increased surface runoff. Since the Bronze Age, predominantly fine sediments were deposited along the valley with apparently stable channels and vertical floodplain accretion associated with soil erosion and less catastrophic flooding. The Kennet demonstrates that, while a general pattern of river behaviour over time, within a region, may be identifiable, individual rivers are likely to diverge from this. Consequently, it is essential to understand catchment controls, particularly the relative significance of surface and subsurface hydrology. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term change, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in climate and glacier mass balance in the Central Greater Caucasus, Russia

Long-term trends, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in the mass-balance record from Djankuat glacier, central Greater Caucasus, Russia, are related to local climate change, synoptic and large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation. A clear warming signal emerged in the central Greater Caucasus in the early 1990s, leading to a strong increase in ablation. In the absence of a compensating change in winter accumulation, the net mass balance of Djankuat has declined. The highest value of seasonal ablation on record was registered in the summer of 2000. At the beginning of the 21st century these trends reversed. Ablation was below average even in the summer of 2003, which was unusually warm in western Europe. Precipitation and winter accumulation were high, allowing for a partial recovery of net mass balance. The interannual variability in the components of mass balance is weakly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian teleconnection patterns, but there is a clear link with the large-scale circulation anomalies represented by the Rossby pattern. Five synoptic categories have been identified for the ablation season of 2005, revealing a strong separation between components of radiation budget, air temperature and daily melt. Air temperature is the main control over melt. The highest values of daily ablation are related to the strongly positive NAO which forces high net radiation, and to the warm and moist advection from the Black Sea.

Interactions between mass balance, atmospheric circulation, and recent climate change on the Djankuat Glacier, Caucasus Mountains, Russia

This paper reports recent changes in the mass balance record from the Djankuat Glacier, central greater Caucasus, Russia, and investigates possible relationships between the components of mass balance, local climate, and distant atmospheric forcing. The results clearly show that a strong warming signal has emerged in the central greater Caucasus, particularly since the 1993/1994 mass balance year, and this has led to a significant increase in the summer ablation of Djankuat. At the same time, there has been no compensating consistent increase in winter precipitation and accumulation leading to the strong net loss of mass and increase in glacier runoff. Interannual variability in ablation and accumulation is partly associated with certain major patterns of Northern Hemisphere climatic variability. The positive phase of the North Pacific (NP) teleconnection pattern forces negative geopotential height and temperature anomalies over the Caucasus in summer and results in reduced summer melt, such as in the early 1990s, when positive NP extremes resulted in a temporary decline in ablation rates. The positive phase of the NP is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and it is possible that a teleconnection between the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and summer air temperatures in the Caucasus is bridged through the NP pattern. More recently, the NP pattern was predominantly negative, and this distant moderating forcing on summer ablation in the Caucasus was absent. Statistically significant correlations are observed between accumulation and the Scandinavian (SCA) teleconnection pattern. The frequent occurrence of the positive SCA phase at the beginning of accumulation season results in lower than average snowfall and reduced accumulation. The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation, and accumulation is weak, although positive precipitation anomalies in the winter months are associated with the negative phase of the NAO. A stronger positive correlation is observed between accumulation on Djankuat and geopotential height over the Bay of Biscay unrelated to the established modes of the Northern Hemisphere climatic variability. These results imply that the mass balance of Djankuat is sensitive to the natural variability in the climate system. Distant forcing, however, explains only 16% of the variance in the ablation record and cannot fully explain the recent increase in ablation and negative mass balance.

Anxiety-induced response perseverance and stereotyping change

This study examined anxiety as a potential moderator of stereotype change. Previous work has independently demonstrated an increase in stereotyping under conditions of high anxiety as well as following attempts to suppress stereotypic thought. The combination of these two antecedent conditions might thus be expected to produce an additive increase in stereotyping. In contrast to an additive pattern, however, we observed an interaction between anxiety and suppression task instruction. Whilst both the instruction to suppress (in the absence of anxiety) or anxiety (in the absence of the instruction to suppress) did independently increase stereotyping, when the two co-occurred, there was no change. We explain this interaction by considering work from neuropsychological domain on response perseverance: cognitive overload (one consequence of anxiety) may inhibit the ability to switch between modes of perception. These findings suggest a potentially important moderator for attempts to suppress social stereotypes, and point to the efficacy of integrating work from diverse domains for understanding the operation of executive processes in person perception.

Information system evolvability, feedback and pattern languages

Information systems for business are frequently heavily reliant on software. Two important feedback-related effects of embedding software in a business process are identified. First, the system dynamics of the software maintenance process can become complex, particularly in the number and scope of the feedback loops. Secondly, responsiveness to feedback can have a big effect on the evolvability of the information system. Ways have been explored to provide an effective mechanism for improving the quality of feedback between stakeholders during software maintenance. Understanding can be improved by using representations of information systems that are both service-based and architectural in scope. The conflicting forces that encourage change or stability can be resolved using patterns and pattern languages. A morphology of information systems pattern languages has been described to facilitate the identification and reuse of patterns and pattern languages. The kind of planning process needed to achieve consensus on a system's evolution is also considered.

Rapid topographic change measured by high-resolution satellite radar at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, 2008-2010

High-resolution satellite radar observations of erupting volcanoes can yield valuable information on rapidly changing deposits and geomorphology. Using the TerraSAR-X (TSX) radar with a spatial resolution of about 2 m and a repeat interval of 11-days, we show how a variety of techniques were used to record some of the eruptive history of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between July 2008 and February 2010. After a 15-month pause in lava dome growth, a vulcanian explosion occurred on 28 July 2008 whose vent was hidden by dense cloud. We were able to show the civil authorities using TSX change difference images that this explosion had not disrupted the dome sufficient to warrant continued evacuation. Change difference images also proved to be valuable in mapping new pyroclastic flow deposits: the valley-occupying block-and-ash component tending to increase backscatter and the marginal surge deposits reducing it, with the pattern reversing after the event. By comparing east- and west-looking images acquired 12 hours apart, the deposition of some individual pyroclastic flows can be inferred from change differences. Some of the narrow upper sections of valleys draining the volcano received many tens of metres of rockfall and pyroclastic flow deposits over periods of a few weeks. By measuring the changing shadows cast by these valleys in TSX images the changing depth of infill by deposits could be estimated. In addition to using the amplitude data from the radar images we also used their phase information within the InSAR technique to calculate the topography during a period of no surface activity. This enabled areas of transient topography, crucial for directing future flows, to be captured.

Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900-2100

Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990-2090 it amounts to 0.20-0.37 in. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea- level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.