The winds of change? Exploring political effects of Hurricane Andrew

Before dawn on August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew smashed into south Florida, particularly southern Dade County, and soon become the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. Andrew's impacts quickly overwhelmed local and state emergency response capabilities and eventually required major federal assistance, including regular military units. While the social and economic impacts of Hurricane Andrew are relatively well researched, much less attention has been given to its possible political effects. ^ Focusing on incumbent officeholders at three levels (municipal, state legislative, and statewide) who stood for reelection after Hurricane Andrew, this study seeks to determine whether they experienced any political effects from Andrew. That is, this study explores the possible interaction between the famous “incumbency advantage” and an “extreme event,” in this case a natural disaster. The specific foci were (1) campaigns and campaigning (a research process that included 43 personal interviews), and (2) election results before and after the event. ^ Given well-documented response problems, the working hypothesis was that incumbents experienced largely negative political fallout from the disaster. The null hypothesis was that incumbents saw no net political effects, but the reverse hypothesis was also considered: incumbents benefited politically from the event. ^ In the end, this study found that although the election process was physically disrupted, especially in south Dade County, the disaster largely reinforced the incumbency advantage. More specifically, the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew allowed most incumbent officeholders to (1) enhance constituency service, (2) associate themselves with the flow of external assistance, (3) achieve major personal visibility and media coverage, and yet (4) appear non-political or at least above normal politics. Overall, this combination allowed incumbents to very effectively “campaign without campaigning,” a point borne out by post-Andrew election results. ^

Age determination, uranium, carbon and oxygen isotopes ratios of a stalagmite of the Villars cave

The signature of Dansgaard-Oeschger events - millennial-scale abrupt climate oscillations during the last glacial period - is well established in ice cores and marine records (Labeyrie, 2000, doi:10.1126/science.290.5498.1905; Blunier and Brook, 2001, doi:10.1126/science.291.5501.109: Bond et al., 2001, doi:10.1126/science.1065680). But the effects of such events in continental settings are not as clear, and their absolute chronology is uncertain beyond the limit of 14C dating and annual layer counting for marine records and ice cores, respectively. Here we present carbon and oxygen isotope records from a stalagmite collected in southwest France which have been precisely dated using 234U/230Th ratios. We find rapid climate oscillations coincident with the established Dansgaard-Oeschger events between 83,000 and 32,000 years ago in both isotope records. The oxygen isotope signature is similar to a record from Soreq cave, Israel (Bar-Mathews et al., 2000, doi:10.1016/S0009-2541(99)00232-6), and deep-sea records (Bond et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/365143a0; Shackleton and Hall, 2001, doi:10.1029/2000PA000513), indicating the large spatial scale of the climate oscillations. The signal in the carbon isotopes gives evidence of drastic and rapid vegetation changes in western Europe, an important site in human cultural evolution. We also find evidence for a long phase of extremely cold climate in southwest France between 61.2 +/-0.6 and 67.4 0.9 kyr ago.

Palaeoecology of the Mount Etna bat fauna, coastal Eastern Queensland

Global warming is already threatening many animal and plant communities worldwide, however, the effect of climate change on bat populations is poorly known. Understanding the factors influencing the survival of bats is crucial to their conservation, and this cannot be achieved solely by modern ecological studies. Palaeoecological investigations provide a perspective over a much longer temporal scale, allowing the understanding of the dynamic patterns that shaped the distribution of modern taxa. In this study twelve microchiropteran fossil assemblages from Mount Etna, central-eastern Queensland, ranging in age from more than 500,000 years to the present day, were investigated. The aim was to assess the responses of insectivorous bats to Quaternary environmental changes, including climatic fluctuations and recent anthropogenic impacts. In particular, this investigation focussed on the effects of increasing late Pleistocene aridity, the subsequent retraction of rainforest habitat, and the impact of cave mining following European settlement at Mount Etna. A thorough examination of the dental morphology of all available extant Australian bat taxa was conducted in order to identify the fossil taxa prior to their analysis in term of species richness and composition. This detailed odontological work provided new diagnostic dental characters for eighteen species and one genus. It also provided additional useful dental characters for three species and seven genera. This odontological analysis allowed the identification of fifteen fossil bat taxa from the Mount Etna deposits, all being representatives of extant bats, and included ten taxa identified to the species level (i.e., Macroderma gigas, Hipposideros semoni, Rhinolophus megaphyllus, Miniopterus schreibersii, Miniopterus australis, Scoteanax rueppellii, Chalinolobus gouldii, Chalinolobus dwyeri, Chalinolobus nigrogriseus and Vespadelus troughtoni) and five taxa identified to the generic level (i.e., Mormopterus, Taphozous, Nyctophilus, Scotorepens and Vespadelus). Palaeoecological analysis of the fossil taxa revealed that, unlike the non-volant mammal taxa, bats have remained essentially stable in terms of species diversity and community membership between the mid-Pleistocene rainforest habitat and the mesic habitat that occurs today in the region. The single major exception is Hipposideros semoni, which went locally extinct at Mount Etna. Additionally, while intensive mining operations resulted in the abandonment of at least one cave that served as a maternity roost in the recent past, the diversity of the Mount Etna bat fauna has not declined since European colonisation. The overall resilience through time of the bat species discussed herein is perhaps due to their unique ecological, behavioural, and physiological characteristics as well as their ability to fly, which have allowed them to successfully adapt to their changing environment. This study highlights the importance of palaeoecological analyses as a tool to gain an understanding of how bats have responded to environmental change in the past and provides valuable information for the conservation of threatened modern species, such as H. semoni.

Vibrational spectroscopic analysis of the mineral crandallite CaAl3(PO4)2(OH)5•(H2O) from the Jenolan Caves, Australia

The mineral crandallite CaAl3(PO4)2(OH)5•(H2O) has been identified in deposits found in the Jenolan Caves, New South Wales, Australia by using a combination of X-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopic techniques. A comparison is made between the vibrational spectra of crandallite found in the Jenolan Caves and a standard crandallite. Raman and infrared bands are assigned to PO43- and HPO42- stretching and bending modes. The predominant features are the internal vibrations of the PO43 and HPO42- groups. A mechanism for the formation of crandallite is presented and the conditions for the formation are elucidated.

Review : "Ghosts...of the Civil Dead" -- John Hillcoat

Synopsis and review of the Australian prison film Ghosts...of the Civil Dead (John Hillcoat, 1988). Drawing heavily from the book In the Belly of the Beast by American author and long-term prisoner Jack Henry Abbott, as well as from the historical and philosophical work of Michel Foucault (the credits include ‘Foucault Authority – Simon During’), Ghosts… Of the Civil Dead is a searing critique of the so-called ‘new generation’ prison system developed in the United States and recently introduced in Australia. Director John Hillcoat and producer Evan English conducted extensive research for the film, including spending time at the National Institute of Corrections, a think tank in Colorado, and visiting numerous institutions like the ‘new Alcatraz’ at Marion Illinois and other maximum security prisons across the United States. Using a mix of professionals and non-actors, including former prisoners and prison guards, the ‘story’ was workshopped during a lengthy rehearsal period with many actual events and experiences of participants incorporated into the film. The end result deliberately blurs the line between American and Australian prison experience to make the political point that what had happened in the US – from where many events and characters, and much of the architecture and design of the prison are drawn – was beginning to happen in Australia. The film emphasises the vicious cycle of institutionalisation, and highlights the role state authorities play in manufacturing, provoking and manipulating violence and fear both in prisons and in wider society as a means to augment policing and surveillance of the population, to oppress the working classes, and to maintain the political status quo...

Namoi : Talking fish - making connections with the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

The Namoi River winds its way through 42 000 square kilometres of blacksoil plain in the north east of New South Wales. Fed by the rivers of the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range, it contributes about one quarter of the Darling River’s flow. The river, its floodplain, wetlands, swamps and waterholes, are the traditional lands of the Gamilaraay* people. The Namoi is a very different river to the one the Gamilaraay people once knew and fished...

Numerical investigation of the influence of topography on simulated downburst wind fields

A, dry, non-hydrostatic sub-cloud model is used to simulate an isolated stationary downburst wind event to study the influence topographic features have on the near-ground wind structure of these storms. It was generally found that storm maximum wind speeds could be increased by up to 30% because of the presence of a topographic feature at the location of maximum wind speeds. Comparing predicted velocity profile amplification with that of a steady flow impinging jet, similar results were found despite the simplifications made in the impinging jet model. Comparison of these amplification profiles with those found in the simulated boundary layer winds reveal reductions of up to 30% in the downburst cases. Downburst and boundary layer amplification profiles were shown to become more similar as the topographic feature height was reduced with respect to the outflow depth.

Numerical simulation of downburst winds

The wind field of an intense idealised downburst wind storm has been studied using an axisymmetric, dry, non-hydrostatic numerical sub-cloud model. The downburst driving processes of evaporation and melting have been paramaterized by an imposed cooling source that triggers and sustains a downdraft. The simulated downburst exhibits many characteristics of observed full-scale downburst events, in particular the presence of a primary and counter rotating secondary ring vortex at the leading edge of the diverging front. The counter-rotating vortex is shown to significantly influence the development and structure of the outflow. Numerical forcing and environmental characteristics have been systematically varied to determine the influence on the outflow wind field. Normalised wind structure at the time of peak outflow intensity was generally shown to remain constant for all simulations. Enveloped velocity profiles considering the velocity structure throughout the entire storm event show much more scatter. Assessing the available kinetic energy within each simulated storm event, it is shown that the simulated downburst wind events had significantly less energy available for loading isolated structures when compared with atmospheric boundary layer winds. The discrepancy is shown to be particularly prevalent when wind speeds were integrated over heights representative of tall buildings. A similar analysis for available full scale measurements led to similar findings.

Idealised simulation of downburst winds

Convectively driven downburst winds pose a threat to structures and communities in many regions of Australia not subject to tropical cyclones. Extreme value analysis shows that for return periods of interest to engineering design these events produce higher gust wind speeds than synoptic scale windstorms. Despite this, comparatively little is known of the near ground wind structure of these potentially hazardous windstorms. With this in mind, a series of idealised three-dimensional numerical simulations were undertaken to investigate convective storm wind fields. A dry, non-hydrostatic, sub-cloud model with parameterisation of the microphysics was used. Simulations were run with a uniform 20 m horizontal grid resolution and a variable vertical resolution increasing from 1 m. A systematic grid resolution study showed further refinement did not alter the morphological structure of the outflow. Simulations were performed for stationary downbursts in a quiescent air field, stationary downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds, and also translating downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds.

A lesson from cyclone Larry: An untold story of the success of good coastal planning

When tropical cyclone Larry crossed the Queensland coast on 20 March 2006, commercial, recreational and naval vessels in the port of Cairns, 60 km north of the eye of the cyclone and others closer to the eye, were protected from the destructive winds by sheltering in deep mangrove creeks in Trinity Inlet and off other coastal rivers. The Trinity Inlet mangroves are protected under the comprehensive multi-use Trinity Inlet Management Plan, agreed by the local and state government agencies (Cairns City Council, the Cairns Port Authority and the Queensland Government). Using this Australian example and one from the town of Palompon in Leyte province, central Philippines, we show how long-term mangrove habitat protection resulting from well-conceived coastal planning can deliver important economic and infrastructure benefits.

Fluid dynamics of the monsoon

The monsoonal regions of the world are characterized by a seasonal reversal in the direction of winds associated with the excursion of the equatorial trough (or the ITCZ) in response to the variation in the latitude of maximum insolation. This monsoonal circulation is a planetary scale phenomenon. However, the associated precipitation is critically dependent on the organization of the cumulus clouds (typically a few kilometers in horizontal extent) over the scale of synoptic vortices (typically a few hundred kilometers in horizontal extent). Thus modelling of the seasonal transitions and intraseasonal fluctuations requires an understanding of the fluid mechanics of these three scales of organizations and their interactions. The present paper is an attempt to outline the current state of understanding of these phenomena.

4QMMT - The Problem of the Epilogue

The main focus of this study is the epilogue of 4QMMT (4QMiqsat Ma aseh ha-Torah), a text of obscure genre containing a halakhic section found in cave 4 at Qumran. In the official edition published in the series Discoveries of the Judaean Desert (DJD X), the extant document was divided by its editors, Elisha Qimron and John Strugnell, into three literary divisions: Section A) the calendar section representing a 364-day solar calendar, Section B) the halakhot, and Section C) an epilogue. The work begins with text critical inspection of the manuscripts containing text from the epilogue (mss 4Q397, 4Q398, and 4Q399). However, since the relationship of the epilogue to the other sections of the whole document 4QMMT is under investigation, the calendrical fragments (4Q327 and 4Q394 3-7, lines 1-3) and the halakhic section also receive some attention, albeit more limited and purpose oriented. In Ch. 2, after a transcription of the fragments of the epilogue, a synopsis is presented in order to evaluate the composite text of the DJD X edition in light of the evidence provided by the individual manuscripts. As a result, several critical comments are offered, and finally, an alternative arrangement of the fragments of the epilogue with an English translation. In the following chapter (Ch. 3), the diversity of the two main literary divisions, the halakhic section and the epilogue, is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the author(s) of 4QMMT adopted and adjusted the covenantal pattern known from biblical law collections, more specifically Deuteronomy. The question of the genre of 4QMMT is investigated in Ch. 4. The final chapter (Ch. 5) contains an analysis of the use of Scripture in the epilogue. In a close reading, both the explicit citations and the more subtle allusions are investigated in an attempt to trace the theology of the epilogue. The main emphases of the epilogue are covenantal faithfulness, repentance and return. The contents of the document reflect a grave concern for the purity of the cult in Jerusalem, and in the epilogue Deuteronomic language and expressions are used to convince the readers of the necessity of a reformation. The large number of late copies found in cave 4 at Qumran witness the significance of 4QMMT and the continuous importance of the Jerusalem Temple for the Qumran community.