Influência do uso e ocupação da terra na dinâmica do rio São Lourenço - estado de Mato Grosso

This study aims to analyze the relationship between deforestation in the highlands of the São Francisco River Basin over the past 45 years due to agricultural activities and livestock , and the observed changes in the dynamics of the same river in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso , as sinuosity , discharge sediment , flow, points of erosion and morphological changes . It is observed that deforestation occurs in the plain and on the plateau , however with much more intensity in the latter, provided the extensive land use in the region . Thus, the study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the relationships between the uplands and flood plains . To achieve this goal will be used proper methods of geomorphological and geological sciences , with emphasis on the use of satellite imagery and hydrological data side . The research will include the following steps : I) literature review ; II) characterization geomorphological , geological , hydrological and climate , III) Dynamics of vegetation ; IV) Analysis of cause-effect relationships in the river system . Product analysis will suggest preventive measures to minimize the effects caused by the practices of use and occupation in the study area, as well as other regions suffer the same impacts

Rituali indigeni in Mesoamerica. La festa di Petición de Lluvias nella Montaña di Guerrero (Messico)

Questa tesi di carattere antropologico in ambito dottorale riguarda i rituali comunitari nelle comunità indigene messicane. Il principale oggetto della ricerca è il rituale della pioggia o di Petición de Lluvia, caratterizzato sia dal sacrificio animale che da una specifica relazione di causa-effetto con l’ambiente circostante. La ricerca etnografica è cominciata dall’ipotesi di voler verificare la persistenza nel tempo, e dunque nell’attualità, di procedure cerimoniali non appartenenti, almeno nella loro forma più lineare, alla religione cattolico-cristiana. Il luogo nel quale è avvenuta tale ricerca è la regione La Montaña di Guerrero, situata nel Messico sud-occidentale, e più precisamente la zona in cui vivono le comunità di etnia Nahua di San Pedro Petlacala, Acuilpa, e Xalpatláhuac che si trovano nelle vicinanze della cittadina di Tlapa de Comonfort. In un contesto ambientale profondamente rurale come quello della Montaña di Guerrero, la persistenza dei rituali evidenzia come le risorse naturali e gli agenti atmosferici - pioggia, vento, nubi - continuino a rappresentare gli elementi centrali che condizionano le variabili economiche di sussistenza e della riproduzione sociale. Il rituale di Petición de Lluvia rappresenta il momento di congiunzione tra la stagione secca e quella piovosa, tra la semina ed il raccolto del mais. Definito come una pratica religiosa nella quale il gruppo si identifica e partecipa con varie donazioni (ofrenda o deposito rituale), suddivisibili in alimenti/oggetti/preghiere ed azioni rituali, la cerimonia esprime l’auspicio di piogge abbondanti, con le quali irrigare i campi e continuare le attività umane. Il destinatario dell’offerta è la stessa divinità della pioggia, Tlaloc per le antiche civiltà mesoamericane, invocato sotto le mentite spoglie del santo patrono del 25 aprile, San Marcos. Il rituale è contraddistinto per tutta la sua durata dalla presenza del principale specialista religioso, sacerdote in lingua spagnola oppure «Tlahmáquetl» in lingua náhuatl.

Impact of weather and climate on the incidence of acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND: First investigations of the interactions between weather and the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions date back to 1938. The early observation of a higher incidence of myocardial infarctions in the cold season could be confirmed in very different geographical regions and cohorts. While the influence of seasonal variations on the incidence of myocardial infarctions has been extensively documented, the impact of individual meteorological parameters on the disease has so far not been investigated systematically. Hence the present study intended to assess the impact of the essential variables of weather and climate on the incidence of myocardial infarctions. METHODS: The daily incidence of myocardial infarctions was calculated from a national hospitalization survey. The hourly weather and climate data were provided by the database of the national weather forecast. The epidemiological and meteorological data were correlated by multivariate analysis based on a generalized linear model assuming a log-link-function and a Poisson distribution. RESULTS: High ambient pressure, high pressure gradients, and heavy wind activity were associated with an increase in the incidence of the totally 6560 hospitalizations for myocardial infarction irrespective of the geographical region. Snow- and rainfall had inconsistent effects. Temperature, Foehn, and lightning showed no statistically significant impact. CONCLUSIONS: Ambient pressure, pressure gradient, and wind activity had a statistical impact on the incidence of myocardial infarctions in Switzerland from 1990 to 1994. To establish a cause-and-effect relationship more data are needed on the interaction between the pathophysiological mechanisms of the acute coronary syndrome and weather and climate variables.

Multiscale constitutive modeling of polymer materials

Materials are inherently multi-scale in nature consisting of distinct characteristics at various length scales from atoms to bulk material. There are no widely accepted predictive multi-scale modeling techniques that span from atomic level to bulk relating the effects of the structure at the nanometer (10-9 meter) on macro-scale properties. Traditional engineering deals with treating matter as continuous with no internal structure. In contrast to engineers, physicists have dealt with matter in its discrete structure at small length scales to understand fundamental behavior of materials. Multiscale modeling is of great scientific and technical importance as it can aid in designing novel materials that will enable us to tailor properties specific to an application like multi-functional materials. Polymer nanocomposite materials have the potential to provide significant increases in mechanical properties relative to current polymers used for structural applications. The nanoscale reinforcements have the potential to increase the effective interface between the reinforcement and the matrix by orders of magnitude for a given reinforcement volume fraction as relative to traditional micro- or macro-scale reinforcements. To facilitate the development of polymer nanocomposite materials, constitutive relationships must be established that predict the bulk mechanical properties of the materials as a function of the molecular structure. A computational hierarchical multiscale modeling technique is developed to study the bulk-level constitutive behavior of polymeric materials as a function of its molecular chemistry. Various parameters and modeling techniques from computational chemistry to continuum mechanics are utilized for the current modeling method. The cause and effect relationship of the parameters are studied to establish an efficient modeling framework. The proposed methodology is applied to three different polymers and validated using experimental data available in literature.

Renal resistance index in renal allograft recipients: a role for ADMA

BACKGROUND: Renal resistance index, a predictor of kidney allograft function and patient survival, seems to depend on renal and peripheral vascular compliance and resistance. Asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) is an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthase and therefore influences vascular resistance. STUDY DESIGN: We investigated the relationship between renal resistance index, ADMA, and risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and kidney function in a cross-sectional study. SETTING ; PARTICIPANTS: 200 stable renal allograft recipients (133 men and 67 women with a mean age of 52.8 years). PREDICTORS: Serum ADMA concentration, pulse pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate and recipient age. OUTCOME: Renal resistance index. MEASUREMENTS: Renal resistance index measured by color-coded duplex ultrasound, serum ADMA concentration measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, estimated glomerular filtration rate (Nankivell equation), arterial stiffness measured by digital volume pulse, Framingham and other cardiovascular risk factors, and evaluation of concomitant antihypertensive and immunosuppressive medication. RESULTS: Mean serum ADMA concentration was 0.72 +/- 0.21 (+/-SD) micromol/L and mean renal resistance index was 0.71 +/- 0.07. Multiple stepwise regression analysis showed that recipient age (P < 0.001), pulse pressure (P < 0.001), diabetes (P < 0.01) and ADMA concentration (P < 0.01) were independently associated with resistance index. ADMA concentrations were correlated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (P < 0.01). LIMITATIONS: The cross-sectional nature of this study precludes cause-effect conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to established cardiovascular risk factors, ADMA appears to be a relevant determinant of renal resistance index and allograft function and deserves consideration in prospective outcome trials in renal transplantation.

IMMUNOGLOBULINS IN PERIODONTAL DISEASE

Periodontal disease is the major cause of tooth loss in man. The initial histological picture of the inflamed gingiva is characteristic of local inflammatory reaction involving polymorphonuclear leukocytes, vasculitis and localized tissue loss. Subsequent clinical stages of periodontal disease (mild gingivitis) show histological evidence of the involvement of the immune response with initial accumulation of macrophages, and lymphocytes devoid of surface staining immunoglobulins (presumably T cells). As the disease progresses, a predominance of surface and cytoplasmic staining lymphocytes and plasma cells are seen (severe gingivitis and periodontitis). Whether the occurrence of the immunoglobulin positive lymphocytes and the concurrent loss of collagen and resorption of alveolar bone seen in periodontitis is indicative of a direct cause and effect relationship has been a controversy.^ The majority of investigations in the periodontal field have involved the use of peripheral blood lymphocytes or serum. Blastogenic responses of peripheral blood lymphocytes and serum antibody titers from periodontal patients to a variety of oral bacteria have not shown any correlation between response and the severity of disease. The need to study the local immune response in inflamed gingiva is apparent. Since there are no baseline studies on the functional capabilities of the lymphoid cells present in gingiva from periodontitis patients, an in depth study involving the role of the immunoglobulin positive lymphocytes was investigated.^ Inflamed gingiva from four clinically defined periodontal disease states (mild gingivitis, severe gingivitis, periodontitis and severe periodontitis) were placed in gingival organ cultures. Class specific immunoglobulins were quantitated in gingival organ culture supernatants using an indirect sandwich technique. A significant difference in mean levels of IgA and IgG was seen between mild gingivitis and periodontitis (P < .00l, P = .001), as well as in IgG levels between periodontitis and severe periodontitis (P = .001). The predominance of IgG in gingival organ culture supernatants and the statistically significant findings that the overall mean levels of IgG between mild gingivitis and periodontitis (P = .014) and between severe periodontitis and periodontitis (P = .001) suggested a possible indicator of periodontal disease. The presence of IgG in gingival organ culture supernatants was shown to be a product of actively secreting plasma cells. The incorporation of radiolabelled amino acids into IgG was noted over a seven-day period with a peak response at day 4-5. The inhibition of IgG synthesis by cyclohexamide confirmed the contention that IgG was a product of de novo synthesis and not serum derived.^ The specificity of immunoglobulins derived from gingival organ cultures were studied using a whole bacterial agglutination test. Oral bacteria frequently cultured from periodontal patients were assessed for their ability to be agglutinated by gingival organ culture supernatants. A positive correlation of antibody titer and severity of disease was seen with five strains of Actinomyces viscosus, two of Actinomyces naeslundii and one Actinomyces israelii. The agglutination of bacteria was shown to be due to the specific interaction of immunoglobulin and cell-wall antigen. ^

Evaluación estocástica de huecos de tensión en sistemas eléctricos: estudio de sensibilidad, estimación de índices y localización óptima de medidores

I. GENERALIDADES 1.1. Introducción Entre los diversos tipos de perturbaciones eléctricas, los huecos de tensión son considerados el problema de calidad de suministro más frecuente en los sistemas eléctricos. Este fenómeno es originado por un aumento extremo de la corriente en el sistema, causado principalmente por cortocircuitos o maniobras inadecuadas en la red. Este tipo de perturbación eléctrica está caracterizado básicamente por dos parámetros: tensión residual y duración. Típicamente, se considera que el hueco se produce cuando la tensión residual alcanza en alguna de las fases un valor entre 0.01 a 0.9 pu y tiene una duración de hasta 60 segundos. Para un usuario final, el efecto más relevante de un hueco de tensión es la interrupción o alteración de la operación de sus equipos, siendo los dispositivos de naturaleza electrónica los principalmente afectados (p. ej. ordenador, variador de velocidad, autómata programable, relé, etc.). Debido al auge tecnológico de las últimas décadas y a la búsqueda constante de automatización de los procesos productivos, el uso de componentes electrónicos resulta indispensable en la actualidad. Este hecho, lleva a que los efectos de los huecos de tensión sean más evidentes para el usuario final, provocando que su nivel de exigencia de la calidad de energía suministrada sea cada vez mayor. De forma general, el estudio de los huecos de tensión suele ser abordado bajo dos enfoques: en la carga o en la red. Desde el punto de vista de la carga, se requiere conocer las características de sensibilidad de los equipos para modelar su respuesta ante variaciones súbitas de la tensión del suministro eléctrico. Desde la perspectiva de la red, se busca estimar u obtener información adecuada que permita caracterizar su comportamiento en términos de huecos de tensión. En esta tesis, el trabajo presentado se encuadra en el segundo aspecto, es decir, en el modelado y estimación de la respuesta de un sistema eléctrico de potencia ante los huecos de tensión. 1.2. Planteamiento del problema A pesar de que los huecos de tensión son el problema de calidad de suministro más frecuente en las redes, hasta la actualidad resulta complejo poder analizar de forma adecuada este tipo de perturbación para muchas compañías del sector eléctrico. Entre las razones más comunes se tienen: - El tiempo de monitorización puede llegar a ser de varios años para conseguir una muestra de registros de huecos estadísticamente válida. - La limitación de recursos económicos para la adquisición e instalación de equipos de monitorización de huecos. - El elevado coste operativo que implica el análisis de los datos de los medidores de huecos de tensión instalados. - La restricción que tienen los datos de calidad de energía de las compañías eléctricas. Es decir, ante la carencia de datos que permitan analizar con mayor detalle los huecos de tensión, es de interés de las compañías eléctricas y la academia poder crear métodos fiables que permitan profundizar en el estudio, estimación y supervisión de este fenómeno electromagnético. Los huecos de tensión, al ser principalmente originados por eventos fortuitos como los cortocircuitos, son el resultado de diversas variables exógenas como: (i) la ubicación de la falta, (ii) la impedancia del material de contacto, (iii) el tipo de fallo, (iv) la localización del fallo en la red, (v) la duración del evento, etc. Es decir, para plantear de forma adecuada cualquier modelo teórico sobre los huecos de tensión, se requeriría representar esta incertidumbre combinada de las variables para proveer métodos realistas y, por ende, fiables para los usuarios. 1.3. Objetivo La presente tesis ha tenido como objetivo el desarrollo diversos métodos estocásticos para el estudio, estimación y supervisión de los huecos de tensión en los sistemas eléctricos de potencia. De forma específica, se ha profundizado en los siguientes ámbitos: - En el modelado realista de las variables que influyen en la caracterización de los huecos. Esto es, en esta Tesis se ha propuesto un método que permite representar de forma verosímil su cuantificación y aleatoriedad en el tiempo empleando distribuciones de probabilidad paramétricas. A partir de ello, se ha creado una herramienta informática que permite estimar la severidad de los huecos de tensión en un sistema eléctrico genérico. - Se ha analizado la influencia la influencia de las variables de entrada en la estimación de los huecos de tensión. En este caso, el estudio se ha enfocado en las variables de mayor divergencia en su caracterización de las propuestas existentes. - Se ha desarrollado un método que permite estima el número de huecos de tensión de una zona sin monitorización a través de la información de un conjunto limitado de medidas de un sistema eléctrico. Para ello, se aplican los principios de la estadística Bayesiana, estimando el número de huecos de tensión más probable de un emplazamiento basándose en los registros de huecos de otros nudos de la red. - Plantear una estrategia para optimizar la monitorización de los huecos de tensión en un sistema eléctrico. Es decir, garantizar una supervisión del sistema a través de un número de medidores menor que el número de nudos de la red. II. ESTRUCTURA DE LA TESIS Para plantear las propuestas anteriormente indicadas, la presente Tesis se ha estructurado en seis capítulos. A continuación, se describen brevemente los mismos. A manera de capítulo introductorio, en el capítulo 1, se realiza una descripción del planteamiento y estructura de la presente tesis. Esto es, se da una visión amplia de la problemática a tratar, además de describir el alcance de cada capítulo de la misma. En el capítulo 2, se presenta una breve descripción de los fundamentos y conceptos generales de los huecos de tensión. Los mismos, buscan brindar al lector de una mejor comprensión de los términos e indicadores más empleados en el análisis de severidad de los huecos de tensión en las redes eléctricas. Asimismo, a manera de antecedente, se presenta un resumen de las principales características de las técnicas o métodos existentes aplicados en la predicción y monitorización óptima de los huecos de tensión. En el capítulo 3, se busca fundamentalmente conocer la importancia de las variables que determinen la frecuencia o severidad de los huecos de tensión. Para ello, se ha implementado una herramienta de estimación de huecos de tensión que, a través de un conjunto predeterminado de experimentos mediante la técnica denominada Diseño de experimentos, analiza la importancia de la parametrización de las variables de entrada del modelo. Su análisis, es realizado mediante la técnica de análisis de la varianza (ANOVA), la cual permite establecer con rigor matemático si la caracterización de una determinada variable afecta o no la respuesta del sistema en términos de los huecos de tensión. En el capítulo 4, se propone una metodología que permite predecir la severidad de los huecos de tensión de todo el sistema a partir de los registros de huecos de un conjunto reducido de nudos de dicha red. Para ello, se emplea el teorema de probabilidad condicional de Bayes, el cual calcula las medidas más probables de todo el sistema a partir de la información proporcionada por los medidores de huecos instalados. Asimismo, en este capítulo se revela una importante propiedad de los huecos de tensión, como es la correlación del número de eventos de huecos de tensión en diversas zonas de las redes eléctricas. En el capítulo 5, se desarrollan dos métodos de localización óptima de medidores de huecos de tensión. El primero, que es una evolución metodológica del criterio de observabilidad; aportando en el realismo de la pseudo-monitorización de los huecos de tensión con la que se calcula el conjunto óptimo de medidores y, por ende, en la fiabilidad del método. Como una propuesta alternativa, se emplea la propiedad de correlación de los eventos de huecos de tensión de una red para plantear un método que permita establecer la severidad de los huecos de todo el sistema a partir de una monitorización parcial de dicha red. Finalmente, en el capítulo 6, se realiza una breve descripción de las principales aportaciones de los estudios realizados en esta tesis. Adicionalmente, se describen diversos temas a desarrollar en futuros trabajos. III. RESULTADOS En base a las pruebas realizadas en las tres redes planteadas; dos redes de prueba IEEE de 24 y 118 nudos (IEEE-24 e IEEE-118), además del sistema eléctrico de la República del Ecuador de 357 nudos (EC-357), se describen los siguientes puntos como las observaciones más relevantes: A. Estimación de huecos de tensión en ausencia de medidas: Se implementa un método estocástico de estimación de huecos de tensión denominado PEHT, el cual representa con mayor realismo la simulación de los eventos de huecos de un sistema a largo plazo. Esta primera propuesta de la tesis, es considerada como un paso clave para el desarrollo de futuros métodos del presente trabajo, ya que permite emular de forma fiable los registros de huecos de tensión a largo plazo en una red genérica. Entre las novedades más relevantes del mencionado Programa de Estimación de Huecos de Tensión (PEHT) se tienen: - Considerar el efecto combinado de cinco variables aleatorias de entrada para simular los eventos de huecos de tensión en una pseudo-monitorización a largo plazo. Las variables de entrada modeladas en la caracterización de los huecos de tensión en el PEHT son: (i) coeficiente de fallo, (ii) impedancia de fallo, (iii) tipo de fallo, (iv) localización del fallo y (v) duración. - El modelado estocástico de las variables de entrada impedancia de fallo y duración en la caracterización de los eventos de huecos de tensión. Para la parametrización de las variables mencionadas, se realizó un estudio detallado del comportamiento real de las mismas en los sistemas eléctricos. Asimismo, se define la función estadística que mejor representa la naturaleza aleatoria de cada variable. - Considerar como variables de salida del PEHT a indicadores de severidad de huecos de uso común en las normativas, como es el caso de los índices: SARFI-X, SARFI-Curve, etc. B. Análisis de sensibilidad de los huecos de tensión: Se presenta un estudio causa-efecto (análisis de sensibilidad) de las variables de entrada de mayor divergencia en su parametrización entre las referencias relacionadas a la estimación de los huecos de tensión en redes eléctricas. De forma específica, se profundiza en el estudio de la influencia de la parametrización de las variables coeficiente de fallo e impedancia de fallo en la predicción de los huecos de tensión. A continuación un resumen de las conclusiones más destacables: - La precisión de la variable de entrada coeficiente de fallo se muestra como un parámetro no influyente en la estimación del número de huecos de tensión (SARFI-90 y SARFI-70) a largo plazo. Es decir, no se requiere de una alta precisión del dato tasa de fallo de los elementos del sistema para obtener una adecuada estimación de los huecos de tensión. - La parametrización de la variable impedancia de fallo se muestra como un factor muy sensible en la estimación de la severidad de los huecos de tensión. Por ejemplo, al aumentar el valor medio de esta variable aleatoria, se disminuye considerablemente la severidad reportada de los huecos en la red. Por otra parte, al evaluar el parámetro desviación típica de la impedancia de fallo, se observa una relación directamente proporcional de este parámetro con la severidad de los huecos de tensión de la red. Esto es, al aumentar la desviación típica de la impedancia de fallo, se evidencia un aumento de la media y de la variación interanual de los eventos SARFI-90 y SARFI-70. - En base al análisis de sensibilidad desarrollado en la variable impedancia de fallo, se considera muy cuestionable la fiabilidad de los métodos de estimación de huecos de tensión que omiten su efecto en el modelo planteado. C. Estimación de huecos de tensión en base a la información de una monitorización parcial de la red: Se desarrolla un método que emplea los registros de una red parcialmente monitorizada para determinar la severidad de los huecos de todo el sistema eléctrico. A partir de los casos de estudio realizados, se observa que el método implementado (PEHT+MP) posee las siguientes características: - La metodología propuesta en el PEHT+MP combina la teoría clásica de cortocircuitos con diversas técnicas estadísticas para estimar, a partir de los datos de los medidores de huecos instalados, las medidas de huecos de los nudos sin monitorización de una red genérica. - El proceso de estimación de los huecos de tensión de la zona no monitorizada de la red se fundamenta en la aplicación del teorema de probabilidad condicional de Bayes. Es decir, en base a los datos observados (los registros de los nudos monitorizados), el PEHT+MP calcula de forma probabilística la severidad de los huecos de los nudos sin monitorización del sistema. Entre las partes claves del procedimiento propuesto se tienen los siguientes puntos: (i) la creación de una base de datos realista de huecos de tensión a través del Programa de Estimación de Huecos de Tensión (PEHT) propuesto en el capítulo anterior; y, (ii) el criterio de máxima verosimilitud empleado para estimar las medidas de huecos de los nudos sin monitorización de la red evaluada. - Las predicciones de medidas de huecos de tensión del PEHT+MP se ven potenciadas por la propiedad de correlación de los huecos de tensión en diversas zonas de un sistema eléctrico. Esta característica intrínseca de las redes eléctricas limita de forma significativa la respuesta de las zonas fuertemente correlacionadas del sistema ante un eventual hueco de tensión. Como el PEHT+MP está basado en principios probabilísticos, la reducción del rango de las posibles medidas de huecos se ve reflejado en una mejor predicción de las medidas de huecos de la zona no monitorizada. - Con los datos de un conjunto de medidores relativamente pequeño del sistema, es posible obtener estimaciones precisas (error nulo) de la severidad de los huecos de la zona sin monitorizar en las tres redes estudiadas. - El PEHT+MP se puede aplicar a diversos tipos de indicadores de severidad de los huecos de tensión, como es el caso de los índices: SARFI-X, SARFI-Curve, SEI, etc. D. Localización óptima de medidores de huecos de tensión: Se plantean dos métodos para ubicar de forma estratégica al sistema de monitorización de huecos en una red genérica. La primera propuesta, que es una evolución metodológica de la localización óptima de medidores de huecos basada en el criterio de observabilidad (LOM+OBS); y, como segunda propuesta, un método que determina la localización de los medidores de huecos según el criterio del área de correlación (LOM+COR). Cada método de localización óptima de medidores propuesto tiene un objetivo concreto. En el caso del LOM+OBS, la finalidad del método es determinar el conjunto óptimo de medidores que permita registrar todos los fallos que originen huecos de tensión en la red. Por otro lado, en el método LOM+COR se persigue definir un sistema óptimo de medidores que, mediante la aplicación del PEHT+MP (implementado en el capítulo anterior), sea posible estimar de forma precisa las medidas de huecos de tensión de todo el sistema evaluado. A partir del desarrollo de los casos de estudio de los citados métodos de localización óptima de medidores en las tres redes planteadas, se describen a continuación las observaciones más relevantes: - Como la generación de pseudo-medidas de huecos de tensión de los métodos de localización óptima de medidores (LOM+OBS y LOM+COR) se obtienen mediante la aplicación del algoritmo PEHT, la formulación del criterio de optimización se realiza en base a una pseudo-monitorización realista, la cual considera la naturaleza aleatoria de los huecos de tensión a través de las cinco variables estocásticas modeladas en el PEHT. Esta característica de la base de datos de pseudo-medidas de huecos de los métodos LOM+OBS y LOM+COR brinda una mayor fiabilidad del conjunto óptimo de medidores calculado respecto a otros métodos similares en la bibliografía. - El conjunto óptimo de medidores se determina según la necesidad del operador de la red. Esto es, si el objetivo es registrar todos los fallos que originen huecos de tensión en el sistema, se emplea el criterio de observabilidad en la localización óptima de medidores de huecos. Por otra parte, si se plantea definir un sistema de monitorización que permita establecer la severidad de los huecos de tensión de todo el sistema en base a los datos de un conjunto reducido de medidores de huecos, el criterio de correlación resultaría el adecuado. De forma específica, en el caso del método LOM+OBS, basado en el criterio de observabilidad, se evidenciaron las siguientes propiedades en los casos de estudio realizados: - Al aumentar el tamaño de la red, se observa la tendencia de disminuir el porcentaje de nudos monitorizados de dicho sistema. Por ejemplo, para monitorizar los fallos que originan huecos en la red IEEE-24, se requiere monitorizar el 100\% de los nudos del sistema. En el caso de las redes IEEE-118 y EC-357, el método LOM+OBS determina que con la monitorización de un 89.5% y 65.3% del sistema, respectivamente, se cumpliría con el criterio de observabilidad del método. - El método LOM+OBS permite calcular la probabilidad de utilización del conjunto óptimo de medidores a largo plazo, estableciendo así un criterio de la relevancia que tiene cada medidor considerado como óptimo en la red. Con ello, se puede determinar el nivel de precisión u observabilidad (100%, 95%, etc.) con el cual se detectarían los fallos que generan huecos en la red estudiada. Esto es, al aumentar el nivel de precisión de detección de los fallos que originan huecos, se espera que aumente el número de medidores requeridos en el conjunto óptimo de medidores calculado. - El método LOM+OBS se evidencia como una técnica aplicable a todo tipo de sistema eléctrico (radial o mallado), el cual garantiza la detección de los fallos que originan huecos de tensión en un sistema según el nivel de observabilidad planteado. En el caso del método de localización óptima de medidores basado en el criterio del área de correlación (LOM+COR), las diversas pruebas realizadas evidenciaron las siguientes conclusiones: - El procedimiento del método LOM+COR combina los métodos de estimación de huecos de tensión de capítulos anteriores (PEHT y PEHT+MP) con técnicas de optimización lineal para definir la localización óptima de los medidores de huecos de tensión de una red. Esto es, se emplea el PEHT para generar los pseudo-registros de huecos de tensión, y, en base al criterio planteado de optimización (área de correlación), el LOM+COR formula y calcula analíticamente el conjunto óptimo de medidores de la red a largo plazo. A partir de la información registrada por este conjunto óptimo de medidores de huecos, se garantizaría una predicción precisa de la severidad de los huecos de tensión de todos los nudos del sistema con el PEHT+MP. - El método LOM+COR requiere un porcentaje relativamente reducido de nudos del sistema para cumplir con las condiciones de optimización establecidas en el criterio del área de correlación. Por ejemplo, en el caso del número total de huecos (SARFI-90) de las redes IEEE-24, IEEE-118 y EC-357, se calculó un conjunto óptimo de 9, 12 y 17 medidores de huecos, respectivamente. Es decir, solamente se requeriría monitorizar el 38\%, 10\% y 5\% de los sistemas indicados para supervisar los eventos SARFI-90 en toda la red. - El método LOM+COR se muestra como un procedimiento de optimización versátil, el cual permite reducir la dimensión del sistema de monitorización de huecos de redes eléctricas tanto radiales como malladas. Por sus características, este método de localización óptima permite emular una monitorización integral del sistema a través de los registros de un conjunto pequeño de monitores. Por ello, este nuevo método de optimización de medidores sería aplicable a operadores de redes que busquen disminuir los costes de instalación y operación del sistema de monitorización de los huecos de tensión. ABSTRACT I. GENERALITIES 1.1. Introduction Among the various types of electrical disturbances, voltage sags are considered the most common quality problem in power systems. This phenomenon is caused by an extreme increase of the current in the network, primarily caused by short-circuits or inadequate maneuvers in the system. This type of electrical disturbance is basically characterized by two parameters: residual voltage and duration. Typically, voltage sags occur when the residual voltage, in some phases, reaches a value between 0.01 to 0.9 pu and lasts up to 60 seconds. To an end user, the most important effect of a voltage sags is the interruption or alteration of their equipment operation, with electronic devices the most affected (e.g. computer, drive controller, PLC, relay, etc.). Due to the technology boom of recent decades and the constant search for automating production processes, the use of electronic components is essential today. This fact makes the effects of voltage sags more noticeable to the end user, causing the level of demand for a quality energy supply to be increased. In general, the study of voltage sags is usually approached from one of two aspects: the load or the network. From the point of view of the load, it is necessary to know the sensitivity characteristics of the equipment to model their response to sudden changes in power supply voltage. From the perspective of the network, the goal is to estimate or obtain adequate information to characterize the network behavior in terms of voltage sags. In this thesis, the work presented fits into the second aspect; that is, in the modeling and estimation of the response of a power system to voltage sag events. 1.2. Problem Statement Although voltage sags are the most frequent quality supply problem in electrical networks, thistype of disturbance remains complex and challenging to analyze properly. Among the most common reasons for this difficulty are: - The sag monitoring time, because it can take up to several years to get a statistically valid sample. - The limitation of funds for the acquisition and installation of sag monitoring equipment. - The high operating costs involved in the analysis of the voltage sag data from the installed monitors. - The restrictions that electrical companies have with the registered power quality data. That is, given the lack of data to further voltage sag analysis, it is of interest to electrical utilities and researchers to create reliable methods to deepen the study, estimation and monitoring of this electromagnetic phenomenon. Voltage sags, being mainly caused by random events such as short-circuits, are the result of various exogenous variables such as: (i) the number of faults of a system element, (ii) the impedance of the contact material, (iii) the fault type, (iv) the fault location, (v) the duration of the event, etc. That is, to properly raise any theoretical model of voltage sags, it is necessary to represent the combined uncertainty of variables to provide realistic methods that are reliable for users. 1.3. Objective This Thesis has been aimed at developing various stochastic methods for the study, estimation and monitoring of voltage sags in electrical power systems. Specifically, it has deepened the research in the following areas: - This research furthers knowledge in the realistic modeling of the variables that influence sag characterization. This thesis proposes a method to credibly represent the quantification and randomness of the sags in time by using parametric probability distributions. From this, a software tool was created to estimate the severity of voltage sags in a generic power system. - This research also analyzes the influence of the input variables in the estimation of voltage sags. In this case, the study has focused on the variables of greatest divergence in their characterization of the existing proposals. - A method was developed to estimate the number of voltage sags of an area without monitoring through the information of a limited set of sag monitors in an electrical system. To this end, the principles of Bayesian statistics are applied, estimating the number of sags most likely to happen in a system busbar based in records of other sag network busbars. - A strategy was developed to optimize the monitorization of voltage sags on a power system. Its purpose is to ensure the monitoring of the system through a number of monitors lower than the number of busbars of the network assessed. II. THESIS STRUCTURE To describe in detail the aforementioned proposals, this Thesis has been structured into six chapters. Below is are brief descriptions of them: As an introductory chapter, Chapter 1, provides a description of the approach and structure of this thesis. It presents a wide view of the problem to be treated, in addition to the description of the scope of each chapter. In Chapter 2, a brief description of the fundamental and general concepts of voltage sags is presented to provide to the reader a better understanding of the terms and indicators used in the severity analysis of voltage sags in power networks. Also, by way of background, a summary of the main features of existing techniques or methods used in the prediction and optimal monitoring of voltage sags is also presented. Chapter 3 essentially seeks to know the importance of the variables that determine the frequency or severity of voltage sags. To do this, a tool to estimate voltage sags is implemented that, through a predetermined set of experiments using the technique called Design of Experiments, discusses the importance of the parameters of the input variables of the model. Its analysis is interpreted by using the technique of analysis of variance (ANOVA), which provides mathematical rigor to establish whether the characterization of a particular variable affects the system response in terms of voltage sags or not. In Chapter 4, a methodology to predict the severity of voltage sags of an entire system through the sag logs of a reduced set of monitored busbars is proposed. For this, the Bayes conditional probability theorem is used, which calculates the most likely sag severity of the entire system from the information provided by the installed monitors. Also, in this chapter an important property of voltage sags is revealed, as is the correlation of the voltage sags events in several zones of a power system. In Chapter 5, two methods of optimal location of voltage sag monitors are developed. The first one is a methodological development of the observability criteria; it contributes to the realism of the sag pseudo-monitoring with which the optimal set of sag monitors is calculated and, therefore, to the reliability of the proposed method. As an alternative proposal, the correlation property of the sag events of a network is used to raise a method that establishes the sag severity of the entire system from a partial monitoring of the network. Finally, in Chapter 6, a brief description of the main contributions of the studies in this Thesis is detailed. Additionally, various themes to be developed in future works are described. III. RESULTS. Based on tests on the three networks presented, two IEEE test networks of 24 and 118 busbars (IEEE-24 and IEEE-118) and the electrical system of the Republic of Ecuador (EC-357), the following points present the most important observations: A. Estimation of voltage sags in the absence of measures: A stochastic estimation method of voltage sags, called PEHT, is implemented to represent with greater realism the long-term simulation of voltage sags events in a system. This first proposal of this thesis is considered a key step for the development of future methods of this work, as it emulates in a reliable manner the voltage sag long-term records in a generic network. Among the main innovations of this voltage sag estimation method are the following: - Consideration of the combined effect of five random input variables to simulate the events of voltage sags in long-term monitoring is included. The input variables modeled in the characterization of voltage sags on the PEHT are as follows: (i) fault coefficient, (ii) fault impedance, (iii) type of fault, (iv) location of the fault, and (v) fault duration. - Also included is the stochastic modeling of the input variables of fault impedance and duration in the characterization of the events of voltage sags. For the parameterization of these variables, a detailed study of the real behavior in power systems is developed. Also, the statistical function best suited to the random nature of each variable is defined. - Consideration of sag severity indicators used in standards as PEHT output variables, including such as indices as SARFI-X, SARFI-Curve, etc. B. Sensitivity analysis of voltage sags: A cause-effect study (sensitivity analysis) of the input variables of greatest divergence between reference parameterization related to the estimation of voltage sags in electrical networks is presented. Specifically, it delves into the study of the influence of the parameterization of the variables fault coefficient and fault impedance in the voltage sag estimation. Below is a summary of the most notable observations: - The accuracy of the input variable fault coefficient is shown as a non-influential parameter in the long-term estimation of the number of voltage sags (SARFI-90 and SARFI-70). That is, it does not require a high accuracy of the fault rate data of system elements for a proper voltage sag estimation. - The parameterization of the variable fault impedance is shown to be a very sensitive factor in the estimation of the voltage sag severity. For example, by increasing the average value of this random variable, the reported sag severity in the network significantly decreases. Moreover, in assessing the standard deviation of the fault impedance parameter, a direct relationship of this parameter with the voltage sag severity of the network is observed. That is, by increasing the fault impedance standard deviation, an increase of the average and the interannual variation of the SARFI-90 and SARFI-70 events is evidenced. - Based on the sensitivity analysis developed in the variable fault impedance, the omission of this variable in the voltage sag estimation would significantly call into question the reliability of the responses obtained. C. Voltage sag estimation from the information of a network partially monitored: A method that uses the voltage sag records of a partially monitored network for the sag estimation of all the power system is developed. From the case studies performed, it is observed that the method implemented (PEHT+MP) has the following characteristics: - The methodology proposed in the PEHT+MP combines the classical short-circuit theory with several statistical techniques to estimate, from data the of the installed sag meters, the sag measurements of unmonitored busbars of a generic power network. - The estimation process of voltage sags of the unmonitored zone of the network is based on the application of the conditional probability theorem of Bayes. That is, based on the observed data (monitored busbars records), the PEHT+MP calculates probabilistically the sag severity at unmonitored system busbars. Among the key parts of the proposed procedure are the following: (i) the creation of a realistic data base of voltage sags through of the sag estimation program (PEHT); and, (ii) the maximum likelihood criterion used to estimate the sag indices of system busbars without monitoring. - The voltage sag measurement estimations of PEHT+MP are potentiated by the correlation property of the sag events in power systems. This inherent characteristic of networks significantly limits the response of strongly correlated system zones to a possible voltage sag. As the PEHT+MP is based on probabilistic principles, a reduction of the range of possible sag measurements is reflected in a better sag estimation of the unmonitored area of the power system. - From the data of a set of monitors representing a relatively small portion of the system, to obtain accurate estimations (null error) of the sag severity zones without monitoring is feasible in the three networks studied. - The PEHT+MP can be applied to several types of sag indices, such as: SARFI-X, SARFI-Curve, SEI, etc. D. Optimal location of voltage sag monitors in power systems: Two methods for strategically locating the sag monitoring system are implemented for a generic network. The first proposal is a methodological development of the optimal location of sag monitors based on the observability criterion (LOM + OBS); the second proposal is a method that determines the sag monitor location according to the correlation area criterion (LOM+COR). Each proposed method of optimal location of sag monitors has a specific goal. In the case of LOM+OBS, the purpose of the method is to determine the optimal set of sag monitors to record all faults that originate voltage sags in the network. On the other hand, the LOM+COR method attempts to define the optimal location of sag monitors to estimate the sag indices in all the assessed network with the PEHT+MP application. From the development of the case studies of these methods of optimal location of sag monitors in the three networks raised, the most relevant observations are described below: - As the generation of voltage sag pseudo-measurements of the optimal location methods (LOM+OBS and LOM+COR) are obtained by applying the algorithm PEHT, the formulation of the optimization criterion is performed based on a realistic sag pseudo-monitoring, which considers the random nature of voltage sags through the five stochastic variables modeled in PEHT. This feature of the database of sag pseudo-measurements of the LOM+OBS and LOM+COR methods provides a greater reliability of the optimal set of monitors calculated when compared to similar methods in the bibliography. - The optimal set of sag monitors is determined by the network operator need. That is, if the goal is to record all faults that originate from voltage sags in the system, the observability criterion is used to determine the optimal location of sag monitors (LOM+OBS). Moreover, if the objective is to define a monitoring system that allows establishing the sag severity of the system from taken from information based on a limited set of sag monitors, the correlation area criterion would be appropriate (LOM+COR). Specifically, in the case of the LOM+OBS method (based on the observability criterion), the following properties were observed in the case studies: - By increasing the size of the network, there was observed a reduction in the percentage of monitored system busbars required. For example, to monitor all the faults which cause sags in the IEEE-24 network, then 100% of the system busbars are required for monitoring. In the case of the IEEE-118 and EC-357 networks, the method LOM+OBS determines that with monitoring 89.5 % and 65.3 % of the system, respectively, the observability criterion of the method would be fulfilled. - The LOM+OBS method calculates the probability of using the optimal set of sag monitors in the long term, establishing a relevance criterion of each sag monitor considered as optimal in the network. With this, the level of accuracy or observability (100%, 95%, etc.) can be determined, with which the faults that caused sags in the studied network are detected. That is, when the accuracy level for detecting faults that cause sags in the system is increased, a larger number of sag monitors is expected when calculating the optimal set of monitors. - The LOM + OBS method is demonstrated to be a technique applicable to any type of electrical system (radial or mesh), ensuring the detection of faults that cause voltage sags in a system according to the observability level raised. In the case of the optimal localization of sag monitors based on the criterion of correlation area (LOM+COR), several tests showed the following conclusions: - The procedure of LOM+COR method combines the implemented algorithms of voltage sag estimation (PEHT and PEHT+MP) with linear optimization techniques to define the optimal location of the sag monitors in a network. That is, the PEHT is used to generate the voltage sag pseudo-records, and, from the proposed optimization criterion (correlation area), the LOM+COR formulates and analytically calculates the optimal set of sag monitors of the network in the long term. From the information recorded by the optimal set of sag monitors, an accurate prediction of the voltage sag severity at all the busbars of the system is guaranteed with the PEHT+MP. - The LOM + COR method is shown to be a versatile optimization procedure, which reduces the size of the sag monitoring system both at radial as meshed grids. Due to its characteristics, this optimal location method allows emulation of complete system sag monitoring through the records of a small optimal set of sag monitors. Therefore, this new optimization method would be applicable to network operators that looks to reduce the installation and operation costs of the voltage sag monitoring system.

Relationships of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate in the elderly with functional, psychological, and mental status, and short-term mortality: A French community-based study

In human beings of both sexes, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) circulating in blood is mostly an adrenally secreted steroid whose serum concentration (in the micromolar range and 30–50% higher in men than in women) decreases with age, toward ≈20–10% of its value in young adults during the 8th and 9th decades. The mechanism of action of DHEA and DHEAS is poorly known and may include partial transformation into sex steroids, increase of bioavailable insulin-like growth factor I, and effects on neurotransmitter receptors. Whether there is a cause-to-effect relationship between the decreasing levels of DHEAS with age and physiological and pathological manifestations of aging is still undecided, but this is of obvious theoretical and practical interest in view of the easy restoration by DHEA administration. Here we report on 622 subjects over 65 years of age, studied for the 4 years since DHEAS baseline values had been obtained, in the frame of the PAQUID program, analyzing the functional, psychological, and mental status of a community-based population in the south-west of France. We confirm the continuing decrease of DHEAS serum concentration with age, more in men than in women, even if men retain higher levels. Significantly lower values of baseline DHEAS were recorded in women in cases of functional limitation (Instrumental Activities of Daily Living), confinement, dyspnea, depressive symptomatology, poor subjective perception of health and life satisfaction, and usage of various medications. In men, there was a trend for the same correlations, even though not statistically significant in most categories. No differences in DHEAS levels were found in cases of incident dementia in the following 4 years. In men (but not in women), lower DHEAS was significantly associated with increased short-term mortality at 2 and 4 years after baseline measurement. These results, statistically established by taking into account corrections for age, sex, and health indicators, suggest the need for further careful trials of the administration of replacement doses of DHEA in aging humans. Indeed, the first noted results of such “treatment” are consistent with correlations observed here between functional and psychological status and endogenous steroid serum concentrations.

HDA1 and RPD3 are members of distinct yeast histone deacetylase complexes that regulate silencing and transcription

Increased histone acetylation has been correlated with increased transcription, and regions of heterochromatin are generally hypoacetylated. In investigating the cause-and-effect relationship between histone acetylation and gene activity, we have characterized two yeast histone deacetylase complexes. Histone deacetylase-A (HDA) is an ≈350-kDa complex that is highly sensitive to the deacetylase inhibitor trichostatin A. Histone deacetylase-B (HDB) is an ≈600-kDa complex that is much less sensitive to trichostatin A. The HDA1 protein (a subunit of the HDA activity) shares sequence similarity to RPD3, a factor required for optimal transcription of certain yeast genes. RPD3 is associated with the HDB activity. HDA1 also shares similarity to three new open reading frames in yeast, designated HOS1, HOS2, and HOS3. We find that both hda1 and rpd3 deletions increase acetylation levels in vivo at all sites examined in both core histones H3 and H4, with rpd3 deletions having a greater impact on histone H4 lysine positions 5 and 12. Surprisingly, both hda1 and rpd3 deletions increase repression at telomeric loci, which resemble heterochromatin with rpd3 having a greater effect. In addition, rpd3 deletions retard full induction of the PHO5 promoter fused to the reporter lacZ. These data demonstrate that histone acetylation state has a role in regulating both heterochromatic silencing and regulated gene expression.

Inhibiting transthyretin amyloid fibril formation via protein stabilization

Transthyretin (TTR) amyloid fibril formation is observed systemically in familial amyloid polyneuropathy and senile systemic amyloidosis and appears to be the causative agent in these diseases. Herein, we demonstrate conclusively that thyroxine (10.8 μM) inhibits TTR fibril formation efficiently in vitro and does so by stabilizing the tetramer against dissociation and the subsequent conformational changes required for amyloid fibril formation. In addition, the nonnative ligand 2,4,6-triiodophenol, which binds to TTR with slightly increased affinity also inhibits TTR fibril formation by this mechanism. Sedimentation velocity experiments were employed to show that TTR undergoes dissociation (linked to a conformational change) to form the monomeric amyloidogenic intermediate, which self-assembles into amyloid in the absence, but not in the presence of thyroxine. These results demonstrate the feasibility of using small molecules to stabilize the native fold of a potentially amyloidogenic human protein, thus preventing the conformational changes, which appear to be the common link in several human amyloid diseases. This strategy and the compounds resulting from further development should prove useful for critically evaluating the amyloid hypothesis—i.e., the putative cause-and-effect relationship between TTR amyloid deposition and the onset of familial amyloid polyneuropathy and senile systemic amyloidosis.

Alterations in the regulation of androgen-sensitive Cyp 4a monooxygenases cause hypertension

Hypertension is a leading cause of cardiovascular, cerebral, and renal disease morbidity and mortality. Here we show that disruption of the Cyp 4a14 gene causes hypertension, which is, like most human hypertension, more severe in males. Male Cyp 4a14 (−/−) mice show increases in plasma androgens, kidney Cyp 4a12 expression, and the formation of prohypertensive 20-hydroxyarachidonate. Castration normalizes the blood pressure of Cyp 4a14 (−/−) mice and minimizes Cyp 4a12 expression and arachidonate ω-hydroxylation. Androgen replacement restores hypertensive phenotype, Cyp 4a12 expression, and 20-hydroxy-arachidonate formation. We conclude that the androgen-mediated regulation of Cyp 4a arachidonate monooxygenases is an important component of the renal mechanisms that control systemic blood pressures. These results provide direct evidence for a role of Cyp 4a isoforms in cardiovascular physiology, establish Cyp 4a14 (−/−) mice as a monogenic model for the study of cause/effect relationships between blood pressure, sex hormones, and P450 ω-hydroxylases, and suggest the human CYP 4A homologues as candidate genes for the analysis of the genetic and molecular basis of human hypertension.

On the etiology of Crohn disease.

Crohn disease (CD) is a chronic, panenteric intestinal inflammatory disease. Its etiology is unknown. Analogous to the tuberculoid and lepromatous forms of leprosy, CD may have two clinical manifestations. One is aggressive and fistulizing (perforating), and the other is contained, indolent, and obstructive (nonperforating) [Gi]-berts, E. C. A. M., Greenstein, A. J., Katsel, P., Harpaz, N. & Greenstein, R. J. (1994) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 91, 12721-127241. The etiology, if infections, may be due to Mycobacterium paratuberculosis. We employed reverse transcription PCR using M. paratuberculosis subspecies-specific primers (IS 900) on total RNA from 12 ileal mucosal specimens (CD, n = 8; controls, n = 4, 2 with ulcerative colitis and 2 with colonic cancer). As a negative control, we used Myobacterium avium DNA, originally cultured from the drinking water of a major city in the United States. cDNA sequence analysis shows that all eight cases of Crohn's disease and both samples from the patients with ulcerative colitis contained M. paratuberculosis RNA. Additionally, the M. avium control has the DNA sequence of M. paratuberculosis. We demonstrate the DNA sequence of M. paratuberculosis from mucosal specimens from humans with CD. The potable water supply may be a reservoir of infection. Although M. paratuberculosis signal in CD has been previously reported, a cause and effect relationship has not been established. In part, this is due to conflicting data from studies with empirical antimycobacterial therapy. We conclude that clinical trials with anti-M. paratuberculosis therapy are indicated in patients with CD who have been stratified into the aggressive (perforating) and contained (nonperforating) forms.