Effect of Oil Price on Emissions Trading Market: VAR Analysis

In this study, we investigated the relationship of European Union carbon dioxide CO2 allowances EUAs prices and oil prices by employing a VAR analysis, Granger causality test and impulse response function. If oil price continues increasing, companies will decrease dependency on fossil fuels because of an increase in energy costs. Therefore, the price of EUAs may be affected by variations in oil prices if the greenhouse gases discharged by the consumption of alternative energy are less than that of fossil fuels. There are no previous studies that investigated these relationships. In this study, we analyzed eight types of EUAs EUA05 to EUA12 with a time series daily data set during 2005-2007 collected from a European Climate Exchange time series data set. Differentiations in these eight types were redemption period. We used the New York Mercantile Exchange light sweet crude price as an oil price. From our examination, we found that only the EUA06 and EUA07 types of EUAs Granger-cause oil prices and vice versa and other six types of EUAs do not Granger-cause oil price. These results imply that the earlier redemption period types of EUAs are more sensitive to oil price. In employing the impulse response function, the results showed that a shock to oil price has a slightly positive effect on all types of EUAs for a very short period. On the other hand, we found that a shock to price of EUA has a slightly negative effect on oil price following a positive effect in only EUA06 and EUA07 types. Therefore, these results imply that fluctuations in EUAs prices and oil prices have little effect on each other. Lastly, we did not consider the substitute energy prices in this study, so we plan to include the prices of coal and natural gas in future analyses.

Exploring the role of energy, trade and financial development in explaining economic growth in South Africa: A revisit

South Africa is an emerging and industrializing economy which is experiencing remarkable progress. We contend that amidst the developments in the economy, the role of energy, trade openness and financial development are critical. In this article, we revisit the pivotal role of these factors. We use the ARDL bounds [72], the Bayer and Hanck [11] cointegration techniques, and an extended Cobb–Douglas framework, to examine the long-run association with output per worker over the sample period 1971–2011. The results support long-run association between output per worker, capital per worker and the shift parameters. The short-run elasticity coefficients are as follows: energy (0.24), trade (0.07), financial development (−0.03). In the long-run, the elasticity coefficients are: trade openness (0.05), energy (0.29), and financial development (−0.04). In both the short-run and the long-run, we note the post-2000 period has a marginal positive effect on the economy. The Toda and Yamamoto [91] Granger causality results show that a unidirectional causality from capital stock and energy consumption to output; and from capital stock to trade openness; a bidirectional causality between trade openness and output; and absence (neutrality) of any causality between financial development and output thus indicating that these two variables evolve independent of each other.

Is that all there is? The limitations of global/local, PISA, and the dilemma of transnational curriculum research

Sob o rótulo da globalização, as ciências humanas e sociais têm sido forçadas a rever seu pensamento para encontrar novas maneiras de falar sobre as situações de mudança ao nosso redor e para reorientar-se conceitualmente em um aparente ‘mundo sem fronteiras’. Este artigo analisa algumas dessas formas, sugerindo que a pesquisa em currículo transnacional como tarefa, como talvez inclusiva de algo para além dos estudos curriculares como subárea, tem preocupações, pontos de entrada e horizontes de promulgação amplos, inconstantes, imprevisíveis, que levantam uma série de questões e considerações éticas que exigem maior compromisso nos espaços em que as fronteiras percebidas forem transgredidas no ato da investigação. Usando os relatórios sobre os resultados do PISA como disparador intelectual, este artigo discute quatro questões que surgem no ato investigativo em currículo transnacional: a comparação como princípio de produção de conhecimento; as estratégias de agrupamento onto-teo-filosóficas e a delimitação da ética; o retorno do sujeito centrado, humanista, racional e as críticas a esse sujeito inspirado no Iluminismo; as questões relativas à causalidade, ou seja, como os processos de atribuição são forjados e que tipos de ‘legitimação via procedimento’ operam na crítica social. Em vez de sugerir uma nova ordem, este artigo busca um questionamento mais profundo dos repetitivos pressupostos ocidentalistas.

Denoising neural data with state-space smoothing: Method and application

Neural data are inevitably contaminated by noise. When such noisy data are subjected to statistical analysis, misleading conclusions can be reached. Here we attempt to address this problem by applying a state-space smoothing method, based on the combined use of the Kalman filter theory and the Expectation–Maximization algorithm, to denoise two datasets of local field potentials recorded from monkeys performing a visuomotor task. For the first dataset, it was found that the analysis of the high gamma band (60–90 Hz) neural activity in the prefrontal cortex is highly susceptible to the effect of noise, and denoising leads to markedly improved results that were physiologically interpretable. For the second dataset, Granger causality between primary motor and primary somatosensory cortices was not consistent across two monkeys and the effect of noise was suspected. After denoising, the discrepancy between the two subjects was significantly reduced.

Cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and output: Assessing the evidence from Australia

In this paper, we describe our investigation of the cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic output in Australia over a period of five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first comprehensive approach used in an Australian study of this type to include energy, capital and labour as separate inputs of production. The empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between energy and output and implies that energy is an important variable in the cointegration space, as are conventional inputs capital and labour. We also find some evidence of bidirectional causality between GDP and energy use. Although the evidence of causality from energy use to GDP was relatively weak when using the thermal aggregate of energy use, once energy consumption was adjusted for energy quality, we found strong evidence of Granger causality from energy use to GDP in Australia over the investigated period. The results are robust, irrespective of the assumptions of linear trends in the cointegration models, and are applicable for different econometric approaches.

The long-run impact of Information and Communication Technology on economic output: The case of Australia

This paper investigates the cointegration and causal relationships between Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and economic output in Australia using data for about five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first comprehensive approach of this kind to include ICT and non-ICT capital and other factors to examine long-run Granger causality. The empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between ICT capital and output, and implies that ICT capital Granger causes economic output and multifactor productivity, as does non-ICT capital.

Energy-output linkages in Australia: Implications for emissions reduction policies

The study investigates the long-run and dynamic relationships between energy consumption and output in Australia using a multivariate cointegration and causality framework. Using both Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration approaches, the study finds that energy consumption and real Gross Domestic Product are cointegrated. The Granger causality tests suggest bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and real GDP, and Granger endogeineity in the system. Since the energy sector largely contributes to carbon emissions in Australia, we suggest that direct measures to reduce carbon by putting constraints on the energy consumption would pose significant economic costs for the Australian economy.

Can technology provide a glimmer of hope for economic growth in the midst of chaos? A case of Zimbabwe

In this paper we examine the effect of technology on economic growth in Zimbabwe over the period 1975–2014 whilst accounting for structural breaks. We use the extended Cobb–Douglas type Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65–94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure to examine cointegration and short run and long run effects. Using unit root tests, we note that structural changes in Zimbabwe are generally marked by the period 1982 onwards. We find that mobile technology has a positive short-run (0.09 %) and long-run (0.08 %) impact on the output per capita. The structural changes post-1982 periods show positive impact in the short-run (0.06) and the long-run (0.09), whereas the coefficient of trend in the short-run (−0.03) and the long-run (−0.04) is negative. The Granger non-causality test shows a unidirectional causality from capital stock (investment) per capita to output per capita and a bi-directional causality between mobile cellular technology and output per capita. The plausible reasons for estimated magnitude effects and the direction of causality are explained for policy deliberation.

New Ventures’ influence on the Growth of SME Employment, Production and Exports in India: Does Institutional Credit matter?

New ventures are considered to be a major source of small firm growth. In Indian context the contribution of new ventures in terms of new employment, production and exports has largely remained unexplored. It is equally important and unexplored, the significance of the contribution of bank credit to the growth of new ventures in India. This paper is an attempt to throw light on these two aspects. The research is based on secondary data of the liberalized period provided by Ministry of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India. To analyze the influence of bank credit growth on new ventures and the influence of new ventures on growth of additional employment, additional production and additional exports, we used a Bi-Variate Vector Auto Regression. Based on the model generated, Granger causality tests are conducted to obtain the results. The study found that rate of growth of bank credit causes the number of new ventures, implying any increase in the rate of growth of bank credit will be beneficial to the growth of new ventures. The study also concluded that new ventures are not causing the growth of additional employment or additional production. However new ventures cause the growth of additional exports. This is reasonable as entrepreneurs start their new ventures with minimum possible employment and relatively low rate of capacity utilization and they come up to take advantage of the process of globalization by catering to the international market.

A Cause and Effect Analysis of Motion Trajectories for Modeling Actions

An action is typically composed of different parts of the object moving in particular sequences. The presence of different motions (represented as a 1D histogram) has been used in the traditional bag-of-words (BoW) approach for recognizing actions. However the interactions among the motions also form a crucial part of an action. Different object-parts have varying degrees of interactions with the other parts during an action cycle. It is these interactions we want to quantify in order to bring in additional information about the actions. In this paper we propose a causality based approach for quantifying the interactions to aid action classification. Granger causality is used to compute the cause and effect relationships for pairs of motion trajectories of a video. A 2D histogram descriptor for the video is constructed using these pairwise measures. Our proposed method of obtaining pairwise measures for videos is also applicable for large datasets. We have conducted experiments on challenging action recognition databases such as HMDB51 and UCF50 and shown that our causality descriptor helps in encoding additional information regarding the actions and performs on par with the state-of-the art approaches. Due to the complementary nature, a further increase in performance can be observed by combining our approach with state-of-the-art approaches.

The Comovement between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments during the Post-War Period in the U.S.

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.

A contribuição do programa de governo "Controle Interno, Prevenção e Combate à Corrupção" da CGU no processo de prestação de contas dos administradores públicos federais

Analisa a Política Pública do Controle Interno como um instrumento de acompanhamento e avaliação da aplicação dos recursos públicos federais das demais políticas públicas de órgãos e entidades federais jurisdicionados à CGU, em especial no momento da prestação de contas dos administradores públicos federais. A Política Pública do Controle Interno é regulatória, seu poder de coerção indicado como alto, demonstra que a capacidade de sanção do Controle Interno limita-se a recomendações, sem poder coercitivo imediato, caso não sejam atendidas, por outro lado, o alvo da coerção direcionado para a conduta do indivíduo (administrador público que é responsabilizado individualmente) exige que estejam presentes as garantias do devido processo legal, tendo em vista a exigência atual de que na responsabilização deve-se indicar, por exemplo, nexo de causalidade e culpabilidade, hoje sob a responsabilidade do Órgão de Controle Interno. A responsabilização ou accountability, bem como o certificado de auditoria, documento emitido pelo controle interno que indica a responsabilidade individualizada dos administradores públicos federais a partir das auditorias anuais de contas extrapolam, a priori, as atribuições legais do Órgão de Controle Interno. Ademais, no período de 2007 a 2010, não houve nenhum julgamento do TCU que confirmasse a opinião da CGU em relação às certificações irregulares.

Cyclical Features of Uzawa-Lucas Endogenous Growth Model

This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of a generalized version of Uzawa-Lucas endogenous growth model. We study the dynamic features of different cyclical components of this model characterized by a variety of decomposition methods. The decomposition methods considered can be classified in two groups. On the one hand, we consider three statistical filters: the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and Gonzalo-Granger decomposition. On the other hand, we use four model-based decomposition methods. The latter decomposition procedures share the property that the cyclical components obtained by these methods preserve the log-linear approximation of the Euler-equation restrictions imposed by the agent’s intertemporal optimization problem. The paper shows that both model dynamics and model performance substantially vary across decomposition methods. A parallel exercise is carried out with a standard real business cycle model. The results should help researchers to better understand the performance of Uzawa-Lucas model in relation to standard business cycle models under alternative definitions of the business cycle.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.