Beginning inference in fourth grade : exploring variation in measurement

This paper addresses one of the foundational components of beginning infernce, namely variation, with 5 classes of Year 4 students undertaking a measurement activity using scaled instruments in two contexts: all students measuring one person's arm span and recording the values obtained, and each student having his/her own arm span measured and recorded. The results included documentation of students' explicit appreciation of the variety of ways in which varitation can occur, including outliers, and their ability to create and describe valid representations of their data.

Meta-level terrorism futures : constructing and deconstructing using causal layered analysis

Focused on the alternative futures of terrorism, this study engages with the different levels of terrorism knowledge to identify and challenge the restrictive narratives that define terrorism: that "society must be defended" from the "constant and evolving terrorist threat". Using Causal Layered Analysis to deconstruct and reconstruct strategies, alternative scenarios emerge. These alternative futures are depicted collectively as a maze, highlighting the prospect of navigating towards preferred and even shared terrorism futures, once these are supported by new and inclusive metaphors and stakeholder engagement.

Odometry-driven inference to link multiple exemplars of a location

A major challenge for robot localization and mapping systems is maintaining reliable operation in a changing environment. Vision-based systems in particular are susceptible to changes in illumination and weather, and the same location at another time of day may appear radically different to a system using a feature-based visual localization system. One approach for mapping changing environments is to create and maintain maps that contain multiple representations of each physical location in a topological framework or manifold. However, this requires the system to be able to correctly link two or more appearance representations to the same spatial location, even though the representations may appear quite dissimilar. This paper proposes a method of linking visual representations from the same location without requiring a visual match, thereby allowing vision-based localization systems to create multiple appearance representations of physical locations. The most likely position on the robot path is determined using particle filter methods based on dead reckoning data and recent visual loop closures. In order to avoid erroneous loop closures, the odometry-based inferences are only accepted when the inferred path's end point is confirmed as correct by the visual matching system. Algorithm performance is demonstrated using an indoor robot dataset and a large outdoor camera dataset.

Bayesian inference of traffic volumes based on Bluetooth data

The study of the relationship between macroscopic traffic parameters, such as flow, speed and travel time, is essential to the understanding of the behaviour of freeway and arterial roads. However, the temporal dynamics of these parameters are difficult to model, especially for arterial roads, where the process of traffic change is driven by a variety of variables. The introduction of the Bluetooth technology into the transportation area has proven exceptionally useful for monitoring vehicular traffic, as it allows reliable estimation of travel times and traffic demands. In this work, we propose an approach based on Bayesian networks for analyzing and predicting the complex dynamics of flow or volume, based on travel time observations from Bluetooth sensors. The spatio-temporal relationship between volume and travel time is captured through a first-order transition model, and a univariate Gaussian sensor model. The two models are trained and tested on travel time and volume data, from an arterial link, collected over a period of six days. To reduce the computational costs of the inference tasks, volume is converted into a discrete variable. The discretization process is carried out through a Self-Organizing Map. Preliminary results show that a simple Bayesian network can effectively estimate and predict the complex temporal dynamics of arterial volumes from the travel time data. Not only is the model well suited to produce posterior distributions over single past, current and future states; but it also allows computing the estimations of joint distributions, over sequences of states. Furthermore, the Bayesian network can achieve excellent prediction, even when the stream of travel time observation is partially incomplete.

Causal behavioural profiles : efficient computation, applications, and evaluation

Analysis of behavioural consistency is an important aspect of software engineering. In process and service management, consistency verification of behavioural models has manifold applications. For instance, a business process model used as system specification and a corresponding workflow model used as implementation have to be consistent. Another example would be the analysis to what degree a process log of executed business operations is consistent with the corresponding normative process model. Typically, existing notions of behaviour equivalence, such as bisimulation and trace equivalence, are applied as consistency notions. Still, these notions are exponential in computation and yield a Boolean result. In many cases, however, a quantification of behavioural deviation is needed along with concepts to isolate the source of deviation. In this article, we propose causal behavioural profiles as the basis for a consistency notion. These profiles capture essential behavioural information, such as order, exclusiveness, and causality between pairs of activities of a process model. Consistency based on these profiles is weaker than trace equivalence, but can be computed efficiently for a broad class of models. In this article, we introduce techniques for the computation of causal behavioural profiles using structural decomposition techniques for sound free-choice workflow systems if unstructured net fragments are acyclic or can be traced back to S- or T-nets. We also elaborate on the findings of applying our technique to three industry model collections.

Efficient computation of causal behavioural profiles using structural decomposition

Identification of behavioural contradictions is an important aspect of software engineering, in particular for checking the consistency between a business process model used as system specification and a corresponding workflow model used as implementation. In this paper, we propose causal behavioural profiles as the basis for a consistency notion, which capture essential behavioural information, such as order, exclusiveness, and causality between pairs of activities. Existing notions of behavioural equivalence, such as bisimulation and trace equivalence, might also be applied as consistency notions. Still, they are exponential in computation. Our novel concept of causal behavioural profiles provides a weaker behavioural consistency notion that can be computed efficiently using structural decomposition techniques for sound free-choice workflow systems if unstructured net fragments are acyclic or can be traced back to S- or T-nets.

Semantic search as inference : applications in health informatics

This thesis developed new search engine models that elicit the meaning behind the words found in documents and queries, rather than simply matching keywords. These new models were applied to searching medical records: an area where search is particularly challenging yet can have significant benefits to our society.

Automatic inference of driving task demand from visual cues of emotion and attention

Sensing the mental, physical and emotional demand of a driving task is of primary importance in road safety research and for effectively designing in-vehicle information systems (IVIS). Particularly, the need of cars capable of sensing and reacting to the emotional state of the driver has been repeatedly advocated in the literature. Algorithms and sensors to identify patterns of human behavior, such as gestures, speech, eye gaze and facial expression, are becoming available by using low cost hardware: This paper presents a new system which uses surrogate measures such as facial expression (emotion) and head pose and movements (intention) to infer task difficulty in a driving situation. 11 drivers were recruited and observed in a simulated driving task that involved several pre-programmed events aimed at eliciting emotive reactions, such as being stuck behind slower vehicles, intersections and roundabouts, and potentially dangerous situations. The resulting system, combining face expressions and head pose classification, is capable of recognizing dangerous events (such as crashes and near misses) and stressful situations (e.g. intersections and way giving) that occur during the simulated drive.

Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

The effect of prior visual information on recognition of speech and sounds

To identify and categorize complex stimuli such as familiar objects or speech, the human brain integrates information that is abstracted at multiple levels from its sensory inputs. Using cross-modal priming for spoken words and sounds, this functional magnetic resonance imaging study identified 3 distinct classes of visuoauditory incongruency effects: visuoauditory incongruency effects were selective for 1) spoken words in the left superior temporal sulcus (STS), 2) environmental sounds in the left angular gyrus (AG), and 3) both words and sounds in the lateral and medial prefrontal cortices (IFS/mPFC). From a cognitive perspective, these incongruency effects suggest that prior visual information influences the neural processes underlying speech and sound recognition at multiple levels, with the STS being involved in phonological, AG in semantic, and mPFC/IFS in higher conceptual processing. In terms of neural mechanisms, effective connectivity analyses (dynamic causal modeling) suggest that these incongruency effects may emerge via greater bottom-up effects from early auditory regions to intermediate multisensory integration areas (i.e., STS and AG). This is consistent with a predictive coding perspective on hierarchical Bayesian inference in the cortex where the domain of the prediction error (phonological vs. semantic) determines its regional expression (middle temporal gyrus/STS vs. AG/intraparietal sulcus).

Assessment on the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

Both environmental economists and policy makers have shown a great deal of interest in the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency. In line with the modern resources available, however, no contribution is brought to the environmental economics field with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) application, which enables simulation from a distribution of a Markov chain and simulating from the chain until it approaches equilibrium. The probability density functions gained prominence with the advantages over classical statistical methods in its simultaneous inference and incorporation of any prior information on all model parameters. This paper concentrated on this point with the application of MCMC to the database of China, the largest developing country with rapid economic growth and serious environmental pollution in recent years. The variables cover the economic output and pollution abatement cost from the year 1992 to 2003. We test the causal direction between pollution abatement cost and environmental efficiency with MCMC simulation. We found that the pollution abatement cost causes an increase in environmental efficiency through the algorithm application, which makes it conceivable that the environmental policy makers should make more substantial measures to reduce pollution in the near future.

Understanding causal relationships between the built and social environment, health and associated behaviours and risk factors

Introduction: Built environment interventions designed to reduce non-communicable diseases and health inequity, complement urban planning agendas focused on creating more ‘liveable’, compact, pedestrian-friendly, less automobile dependent and more socially inclusive cities.However, what constitutes a ‘liveable’ community is not well defined. Moreover, there appears to be a gap between the concept and delivery of ‘liveable’ communities. The recently funded NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence (CRE) in Healthy Liveable Communities established in early 2014, has defined ‘liveability’ from a social determinants of health perspective. Using purpose-designed multilevel longitudinal data sets, it addresses five themes that address key evidence-base gaps for building healthy and liveable communities. The CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities seeks to generate and exchange new knowledge about: 1) measurement of policy-relevant built environment features associated with leading non-communicable disease risk factors (physical activity, obesity) and health outcomes (cardiovascular disease, diabetes) and mental health; 2) causal relationships and thresholds for built environment interventions using data from longitudinal studies and natural experiments; 3) thresholds for built environment interventions; 4) economic benefits of built environment interventions designed to influence health and wellbeing outcomes; and 5) factors, tools, and interventions that facilitate the translation of research into policy and practice. This evidence is critical to inform future policy and practice in health, land use, and transport planning. Moreover, to ensure policy-relevance and facilitate research translation, the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities builds upon ongoing, and has established new, multi-sector collaborations with national and state policy-makers and practitioners. The symposium will commence with a brief introduction to embed the research within an Australian health and urban planning context, as well as providing an overall outline of the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities, its structure and team. Next, an overview of the five research themes will be presented. Following these presentations, the Discussant will consider the implications of the research and opportunities for translation and knowledge exchange. Theme 2 will establish whether and to what extent the neighbourhood environment (built and social) is causally related to physical and mental health and associated behaviours and risk factors. In particular, research conducted as part of this theme will use data from large-scale, longitudinal-multilevel studies (HABITAT, RESIDE, AusDiab) to examine relationships that meet causality criteria via statistical methods such as longitudinal mixed-effect and fixed-effect models, multilevel and structural equation models; analyse data on residential preferences to investigate confounding due to neighbourhood self-selection and to use measurement and analysis tools such as propensity score matching and ‘within-person’ change modelling to address confounding; analyse data about individual-level factors that might confound, mediate or modify relationships between the neighbourhood environment and health and well-being (e.g., psychosocial factors, knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, functional status), and; analyse data on both objective neighbourhood characteristics and residents’ perceptions of these objective features to more accurately assess the relative contribution of objective and perceptual factors to outcomes such as health and well-being, physical activity, active transport, obesity, and sedentary behaviour. At the completion of the Theme 2, we will have demonstrated and applied statistical methods appropriate for determining causality and generated evidence about causal relationships between the neighbourhood environment, health, and related outcomes. This will provide planners and policy makers with a more robust (valid and reliable) basis on which to design healthy communities.

Causal factors of hot air ballooning incidents : identification, frequency, and potential impact

Background: Hot air ballooning incidents are relatively rare, however, when they do occur they are likely to result in a fatality or serious injury. Human error is commonly attributed as the cause of hot air ballooning incidents; however, error in itself is not an explanation for safety failures. This research aims to identify, and establish the relative importance of factors contributing towards hot air ballooning incidents. Methods: Twenty-two Australian Ballooning Federation (ABF) incident reports were thematically coded using a bottom up approach to identify causal factors. Subsequently, 69 balloonists (mean 19.51 years’ experience) participated in a survey to identify additional causal factors and rate (out of seven) the perceived frequency and potential impact to ballooning operations of each of the previously identified causal factors. Perceived associated risk was calculated by multiplying mean perceived frequency and impact ratings. Results: Incident report coding identified 54 causal factors within nine higher level areas: Attributes, Crew resource management, Equipment, Errors, Instructors, Organisational, Physical Environment, Regulatory body and Violations. Overall, ‘weather’, ‘inexperience’ and ‘poor/inappropriate decisions’ were rated as having greatest perceived associated risk. Discussion: Although errors were nominated as a prominent cause of hot air ballooning incidents, physical environment and personal attributes are also particularly important for safe hot air ballooning operations. In identifying a range of causal factors the areas of weakness surrounding ballooning operations have been defined; it is hoped that targeted safety and training strategies can now be put into place removing these contributing factors and reducing the chance of pilot error.