Evolution of the stable carbon isotope composition of atmospheric CO₂ over the last glacial cycle

We present new δ¹³C measurements of atmospheric CO₂ covering the last glacial/interglacial cycle, complementing previous records covering Terminations I and II. Most prominent in the new record is a significant depletion in δ¹³C(atm) of 0.5‰ occurring during marine isotope stage (MIS) 4, followed by an enrichment of the same magnitude at the beginning of MIS 3. Such a significant excursion in the record is otherwise only observed at glacial terminations, suggesting that similar processes were at play, such as changing sea surface temperatures, changes in marine biological export in the Southern Ocean (SO) due to variations in aeolian iron fluxes, changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, upwelling of deep water in the SO, and long-term trends in terrestrial carbon storage. Based on previous modeling studies, we propose constraints on some of these processes during specific time intervals. The decrease in δ¹³C(atm) at the end of MIS 4 starting approximately 64 kyr B.P. was accompanied by increasing [CO₂]. This period is also marked by a decrease in aeolian iron flux to the SO, followed by an increase in SO upwelling during Heinrich event 6, indicating that it is likely that a large amount of δ¹³C-depleted carbon was transferred to the deep oceans previously, i.e., at the onset of MIS 4. Apart from the upwelling event at the end of MIS 4 (and potentially smaller events during Heinrich events in MIS 3), upwelling of deep water in the SO remained reduced until the last glacial termination, whereupon a second pulse of isotopically light carbon was released into the atmosphere.

The effects of carbon dioxide fertilization on the ecology of tropical seagrass communities

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations associated with climate change will likely influence a wide variety of ecosystems. Terrestrial research has examined the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations on the functionality of plant systems; with studies ranging in scale from the short-term responses of individual leaves, to long-term ecological responses of complete forests. While terrestrial plants have received much attention, studies on the responses of marine plants (seagrasses) to increased CO 2(aq) concentrations remain relatively sparse, with most research limited to small-scale, ex situ experimentation. Furthermore, few studies have attempted to address similarities between terrestrial and seagrass responses to increases in CO2(aq). The goals of this dissertation are to expand the scope of marine climate change research, and examine how the tropical seagrass, Thalassia testudinum responds to increasing CO 2(aq)concentrations over multiple spatial and temporal scales. ^ Manipulative laboratory and field experimentation reveal that, similar to terrestrial plants, seagrasses strongly respond to increases in CO 2(aq) concentrations. Using a novel field technique, in situ field manipulations show that over short time scales, seagrasses respond to elevated CO2(aq) by increasing leaf photosynthetic rates and the production of soluble carbohydrates. Declines in leaf nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) content were additionally detected, paralleling responses from terrestrial systems. Over long time scales, seagrasses increase total above- and belowground biomass with elevated CO2(aq), suggesting that, similar to terrestrial research, pervasive increases in atmospheric and oceanic CO2(aq) concentrations stand to influence the productivity and functionality of these systems. Furthermore, field experiments reveal that seagrass epiphytes, which comprise an important component of seagrass ecosystems, additionally respond to increased CO2(aq) with strong declines in calcified taxa and increases in fleshy taxa. ^ Together, this work demonstrates that increasing CO2(aq) concentrations will alter the functionality of seagrass ecosystems by increasing plant productivity and shifting the composition of the epiphyte community. These results have implications for future rates of carbon storage and sediment production within these widely distributed systems.^

Effects of Simulated Drought on the Carbon Balance of Everglades Short-Hydroperiod Marsh

Hydrology drives the carbon balance of wetlands by controlling the uptake and release of CO2 and CH4. Longer dry periods in between heavier precipitation events predicted for the Everglades region, may alter the stability of large carbon pools in this wetland's ecosystems. To determine the effects of drought on CO2 fluxes and CH4 emissions, we simulated changes in hydroperiod with three scenarios that differed in the onset rate of drought (gradual, intermediate, and rapid transition into drought) on 18 freshwater wetland monoliths collected from an Everglades short-hydroperiod marsh. Simulated drought, regardless of the onset rate, resulted in higher net CO2 losses net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the 22-week manipulation. Drought caused extensive vegetation dieback, increased ecosystem respiration (Reco), and reduced carbon uptake gross ecosystem exchange (GEE). Photosynthetic potential measured by reflective indices (photochemical reflectance index, water index, normalized phaeophytinization index, and the normalized difference vegetation index) indicated that water stress limited GEE and inhibited Reco. As a result of drought-induced dieback, NEE did not offset methane production during periods of inundation. The average ratio of net CH4 to NEE over the study period was 0.06, surpassing the 100-year greenhouse warming compensation point for CH4 (0.04). Drought-induced diebacks of sawgrass (C3) led to the establishment of the invasive species torpedograss (C4) when water was resupplied. These changes in the structure and function indicate that freshwater marsh ecosystems can become a net source of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere, even following an extended drought. Future changes in precipitation patterns and drought occurrence/duration can change the carbon storage capacity of freshwater marshes from sinks to sources of carbon to the atmosphere. Therefore, climate change will impact the carbon storage capacity of freshwater marshes by influencing water availability and the potential for positive feedbacks on radiative forcing.

Circumpolar dataset of Soil Organic Carbon north of treeline derived from ENVISAT ASAR GM, link to GeoTIFF

A new approach for the estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools north of the tree line has been developed based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR; ENVISAT Advanced SAR Global Monitoring mode) data. SOC values are directly determined from backscatter values instead of upscaling using land cover or soil classes. The multi-mode capability of SAR allows application across scales. It can be shown that measurements in C band under frozen conditions represent vegetation and surface structure properties which relate to soil properties, specifically SOC. It is estimated that at least 29 Pg C is stored in the upper 30 cm of soils north of the tree line. This is approximately 25 % less than stocks derived from the soil-map-based Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD). The total stored carbon is underestimated since the established empirical relationship is not valid for peatlands or strongly cryoturbated soils. The approach does, however, provide the first spatially consistent account of soil organic carbon across the Arctic. Furthermore, it could be shown that values obtained from 1 km resolution SAR correspond to accounts based on a high spatial resolution (2 m) land cover map over a study area of about 7 × 7 km in NE Siberia. The approach can be also potentially transferred to medium-resolution C-band SAR data such as ENVISAT ASAR Wide Swath with ~120 m resolution but it is in general limited to regions without woody vegetation. Global Monitoring-mode-derived SOC increases with unfrozen period length. This indicates the importance of this parameter for modelling of the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon storage.

Assessing trends in land use change in the Borana rangeland Ethiopia as one cause of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration variations

Landnutzungsänderungen sind eine wesentliche Ursache von Treibhausgasemissionen. Die Umwandlung von Ökosystemen mit permanenter natürlicher Vegetation hin zu Ackerbau mit zeitweise vegetationslosem Boden (z.B. nach der Bodenbearbeitung vor der Aussaat) führt häufig zu gesteigerten Treibhausgasemissionen und verminderter Kohlenstoffbindung. Weltweit dehnt sich Ackerbau sowohl in kleinbäuerlichen als auch in agro-industriellen Systemen aus, häufig in benachbarte semiaride bis subhumide Rangeland Ökosysteme. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht Trends der Landnutzungsänderung im Borana Rangeland Südäthiopiens. Bevölkerungswachstum, Landprivatisierung und damit einhergehende Einzäunung, veränderte Landnutzungspolitik und zunehmende Klimavariabilität führen zu raschen Veränderungen der traditionell auf Tierhaltung basierten, pastoralen Systeme. Mittels einer Literaturanalyse von Fallstudien in ostafrikanischen Rangelands wurde im Rahmen dieser Studie ein schematisches Modell der Zusammenhänge von Landnutzung, Treibhausgasemissionen und Kohlenstofffixierung entwickelt. Anhand von Satellitendaten und Daten aus Haushaltsbefragungen wurden Art und Umfang von Landnutzungsänderungen und Vegetationsveränderungen an fünf Untersuchungsstandorten (Darito/Yabelo Distrikt, Soda, Samaro, Haralo, Did Mega/alle Dire Distrikt) zwischen 1985 und 2011 analysiert. In Darito dehnte sich die Ackerbaufläche um 12% aus, überwiegend auf Kosten von Buschland. An den übrigen Standorten blieb die Ackerbaufläche relativ konstant, jedoch nahm Graslandvegetation um zwischen 16 und 28% zu, während Buschland um zwischen 23 und 31% abnahm. Lediglich am Standort Haralo nahm auch „bare land“, vegetationslose Flächen, um 13% zu. Faktoren, die zur Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus führen, wurden am Standort Darito detaillierter untersucht. GPS Daten und anbaugeschichtlichen Daten von 108 Feldern auf 54 Betrieben wurden in einem Geographischen Informationssystem (GIS) mit thematischen Boden-, Niederschlags-, und Hangneigungskarten sowie einem Digitales Höhenmodell überlagert. Multiple lineare Regression ermittelte Hangneigung und geographische Höhe als signifikante Erklärungsvariablen für die Ausdehnung von Ackerbau in niedrigere Lagen. Bodenart, Entfernung zum saisonalen Flusslauf und Niederschlag waren hingegen nicht signifikant. Das niedrige Bestimmtheitsmaß (R²=0,154) weist darauf hin, dass es weitere, hier nicht erfasste Erklärungsvariablen für die Richtung der räumlichen Ausweitung von Ackerland gibt. Streudiagramme zu Ackergröße und Anbaujahren in Relation zu geographischer Höhe zeigen seit dem Jahr 2000 eine Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus in Lagen unter 1620 müNN und eine Zunahme der Schlaggröße (>3ha). Die Analyse der phänologischen Entwicklung von Feldfrüchten im Jahresverlauf in Kombination mit Niederschlagsdaten und normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Zeitreihendaten dienten dazu, Zeitpunkte besonders hoher (Begrünung vor der Ernte) oder niedriger (nach der Bodenbearbeitung) Pflanzenbiomasse auf Ackerland zu identifizieren, um Ackerland und seine Ausdehnung von anderen Vegetationsformen fernerkundlich unterscheiden zu können. Anhand der NDVI Spektralprofile konnte Ackerland gut Wald, jedoch weniger gut von Gras- und Buschland unterschieden werden. Die geringe Auflösung (250m) der Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI Daten führte zu einem Mixed Pixel Effect, d.h. die Fläche eines Pixels beinhaltete häufig verschiedene Vegetationsformen in unterschiedlichen Anteilen, was deren Unterscheidung beeinträchtigte. Für die Entwicklung eines Echtzeit Monitoring Systems für die Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus wären höher auflösende NDVI Daten (z.B. Multispektralband, Hyperion EO-1 Sensor) notwendig, um kleinräumig eine bessere Differenzierung von Ackerland und natürlicher Rangeland-Vegetation zu erhalten. Die Entwicklung und der Einsatz solcher Methoden als Entscheidungshilfen für Land- und Ressourcennutzungsplanung könnte dazu beitragen, Produktions- und Entwicklungsziele der Borana Landnutzer mit nationalen Anstrengungen zur Eindämmung des Klimawandels durch Steigerung der Kohlenstofffixierung in Rangelands in Einklang zu bringen.

Plant Migrations Impact on Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Forests have a prominent role in carbon storage and sequestration. Anthropogenic forcing has the potential to accelerate climate change and alter the distribution of forests. How forests redistribute spatially and temporally in response to climate change can alter their carbon sequestration potential. The driving question for this research was: How does plant migration from climate change impact vegetation distribution and carbon sequestration potential over continental scales? Large-scale simulation of the equilibrium response of vegetation and carbon from future climate change has shown relatively modest net gains in sequestration potential, but studies of the transient response has been limited to the sub-continent or landscape scale. The transient response depends on fine scale processes such as competition, disturbance, landscape characteristics, dispersal, and other factors, which makes it computational prohibitive at large domain sizes. To address this, this research used an advanced mechanistic model (Ecosystem Demography Model, ED) that is individually based, but pseudo-spatial, that reduces computational intensity while maintaining the fine scale processes that drive the transient response. First, the model was validated against remote sensing data for current plant functional type distribution in northern North America with a current climatology, and then a future climatology was used to predict the potential equilibrium redistribution of vegetation and carbon from future climate change. Next, to enable transient calculations, a method was developed to simulate the spatially explicit process of dispersal in pseudo-spatial modeling frameworks. Finally, the new dispersal sub-model was implemented in the mechanistic ecosystem model, and a model experimental design was designed and completed to estimate the transient response of vegetation and carbon to climate change. The potential equilibrium forest response to future climate change was found to be large, with large gross changes in distribution of plant functional types and comparatively smaller changes in net carbon sequestration potential for the region. However, the transient response was found to be on the order of centuries, and to depend strongly on disturbance rates and dispersal distances. Future work should explore the impact of species-specific disturbance and dispersal rates, landscape fragmentation, and other processes that influence migration rates and have been simulated at the sub-continent scale, but now at continental scales, and explore a range of alternative future climate scenarios as they continue to be developed.

A methodological framework to assess the carbon balance of tropical managed forests.

Background: Managed forests are a major component of tropical landscapes. Production forests as designated by national forest services cover up to 400 million ha, i.e. half of the forested area in the humid tropics. Forest management thus plays a major role in the global carbon budget, but with a lack of unified method to estimate carbon fluxes from tropical managed forests. In this study we propose a new time- and spatially-explicit methodology to estimate the above-ground carbon budget of selective logging at regional scale. Results: The yearly balance of a logging unit, i.e. the elementary management unit of a forest estate, is modelled by aggregating three sub-models encompassing (i) emissions from extracted wood, (ii) emissions from logging damage and deforested areas and (iii) carbon storage from post-logging recovery. Models are parametrised and uncertainties are propagated through a MCMC algorithm. As a case study, we used 38 years of National Forest Inventories in French Guiana, northeastern Amazonia, to estimate the above-ground carbon balance (i.e. the net carbon exchange with the atmosphere) of selectively logged forests. Over this period, the net carbon balance of selective logging in the French Guianan Permanent Forest Estate is estimated to be comprised between 0.12 and 1.33 Tg C, with a median value of 0.64 Tg C. Uncertainties over the model could be diminished by improving the accuracy of both logging damage and large woody necromass decay submodels. Conclusions: We propose an innovating carbon accounting framework relying upon basic logging statistics. This flexible tool allows carbon budget of tropical managed forests to be estimated in a wide range of tropical regions

Wheat Production Systems And Global Climate Change

About this book: Over 100 authors present 25 contributions on the impacts of global change on terrestrial ecosystems including:key processes of the earth system such as the CO2 fertilization effect, shifts in disturbances and biome distribution, the saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink, and changes in functional biodiversity,ecosystem services such the production of wheat, pest control, and carbon storage in croplands, and sensitive regions in the world threaten by rapid changes in climate and land use such as high latitudes ecosystems, tropical forest in Southeast Asia, and ecosystems dominated by Monsoon climate.The book also explores new research developments on spatial thresholds and nonlinearities, the key role of urban development in global biogeochemical processes, and the integration of natural and social sciences to address complex problems of the human-environment system.

The potential to mitigate global warming with no-tillage management is only realized when practised in the long term

No-tillage (NT) management has been promoted as a practice capable of offsetting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because of its ability to sequester carbon in soils. However, true mitigation is only possible if the overall impact of NT adoption reduces the net global warming potential (GWP) determined by fluxes of the three major biogenic GHGs (i.e. CO2, N2O, and CH4). We compiled all available data of soil-derived GHG emission comparisons between conventional tilled (CT) and NT systems for humid and dry temperate climates. Newly converted NT systems increase GWP relative to CT practices, in both humid and dry climate regimes, and longer-term adoption (>10 years) only significantly reduces GWP in humid climates. Mean cumulative GWP over a 20-year period is also reduced under continuous NT in dry areas, but with a high degree of uncertainty. Emissions of N2O drive much of the trend in net GWP, suggesting improved nitrogen management is essential to realize the full benefit from carbon storage in the soil for purposes of global warming mitigation. Our results indicate a strong time dependency in the GHG mitigation potential of NT agriculture, demonstrating that GHG mitigation by adoption of NT is much more variable and complex than previously considered, and policy plans to reduce global warming through this land management practice need further scrutiny to ensure success.

The 10 Australian ecosystems most vulnerable to tipping points

We identify the 10 major terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia most vulnerable to tipping points, in which modest environmental changes can cause disproportionately large changes in ecosystem properties. To accomplish this we independently surveyed the coauthors of this paper to produce a list of candidate ecosystems, and then refined this list during a 2-day workshop. The list includes (1) elevationally restricted mountain ecosystems, (2) tropical savannas, (3) coastal floodplains and wetlands, (4) coral reefs, (5) drier rainforests, (6) wetlands and floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, (7) the Mediterranean ecosystems of southwestern Australia, (8) offshore islands, (9) temperate eucalypt forests, and (10) salt marshes and mangroves. Some of these ecosystems are vulnerable to widespread phase-changes that could fundamentally alter ecosystem properties such as habitat structure, species composition, fire regimes, or carbon storage. Others appear susceptible to major changes across only part of their geographic range, whereas yet others are susceptible to a large-scale decline of key biotic components, such as small mammals or stream-dwelling amphibians. For each ecosystem we consider the intrinsic features and external drivers that render it susceptible to tipping points, and identify subtypes of the ecosystem that we deem to be especially vulnerable. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Subsurface imaging of vegetation, climate, and root-zone moisture interactions

Changes in global climate and land use affect important prolesses from evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge to carbon storage and biochemical cycling. Near surface soil moisture is pivotal to understand the consequences of these changes. However, the dynamic interactions between vegetation and soil moisture remain largely unresolved because it is difficult to monitor and quantify subsurface hydrologic fluxes at relevant scales. Here we use electrical resistivity to monitor the influence of climate and vegetation on root-zone moisture, bridging the gap between remotely-sensed and in-situ point measurements. Our research quantifies large seasonal differences in root-zone moisture dynamics for a forest-grassland ecotone. We found large differences in effective rooting depth and moisture distributions for the two vegetation types. Our results highlight the likely impacts of land transformations on groun ter recharge, streamflow, and land-atmosphere exchanges.

Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues

Grazing is a major land use in Australia's rangelands. The 'safe' livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the 'best estimates' of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as 'known uncertainties' and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands ( including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the 'best estimate' projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1-5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections - including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables - if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of. re, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3 degrees C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e. g. -21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (-33% or -9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3 degrees C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the 'best estimate' of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

Tree mortality and deadwood dynamics in late-successional boreal forests

Here I aimed at quantifying the main components of deadwood dynamics, i.e. tree mortality, deadwood pools, and their decomposition, in late-successional boreal forests. I focused on standing dead trees in three stand types dominated by Picea mariana and Abies balsamea in eastern Canada, and on standing and down dead trees in Picea abies-dominated stands in three areas in Northern Europe. Dead and living trees were measured on five sample plots of 1.6-ha size in each study area and stand type. Stem disks from dead trees were sampled to determine wood density and year of death, using dendrochronological methods. The results were applied to reconstruct past tree mortality and to model deadwood decay class dynamics. Site productivity, stand developmental stage, and the occurrence of episodic tree mortality influenced deadwood volume and quality. In all study areas tree mortality was continuous, leading to continuity in deadwood decay stage distribution. Episodic tree mortality due to either autogenic or allogenic causes influenced deadwood volume and quality in all but one study area. However, regardless of productivity and disturbance history deadwood was abundant, accounting for 20 53% of total wood volume in European study areas, and 15 27% of total standing volume in eastern Canada. Deadwood was a persistent structural component, since its expected residence time in early- and midstages of decay was 18 yr even in the area with the most rapid decomposition. The results indicated that in the absence of episodic tree mortality, stands may eventually develop to a steady state, in which deadwood volume fluctuates around an equilibrium state. However, in many forests deadwood is naturally variable, due to recurrent moderate-severity disturbances. This variability, the continuous tree mortality, and variation in rates of wood decomposition determine the dynamics and availability of deadwood as a habitat and carbon storage medium in boreal coniferous forest ecosystems.

CsrA interacting small RNAs in Haemophilus spp genomes: a theoretical analysis

The csrA is a carbon storage regulator gene that encodes a protein with multiple RNA interaction sites. Bacterial non-coding small RNAs like csrB, csrC and their counterparts in diverse bacterial genus are identified to control the regulatory activities of CsrA and its orthologs. An attempt has been made in this study to identify 'novel' non-coding small RNAs that are involved in the regulatory activities of csrA gene. All CsrA-interacting small RNAs are computationally fingerprinted to have multiple occurrence of 7-nucleotide CsrA interacting repeats [CAGGA(U/A/C)G] along with a 18-nucleotide upstream binding site. However, in several of the genomes like Haemophilus spp, the upstream binding site is not identified. The current methodology overcomes this difficulty by identifying small RNA-specific orphan transcriptional units within the intergenic regions of the genome. The results could identify all known CsrA-interacting small RNAs in E. coli, Vibrio cholerae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa genomes and additionally has picked six new possible CsrA-interacting small RNA regions in E. coli. Our computational analysis indicates that known rygD and rprA sRNAs in E. coli could possibly interact with CsrA proteins. The study is extended to three of the Haemophilus genomes that could identify seven new possible CsrA interacting small RNAs.

Suokasvillisuuden vaste muuttuvaan ilmastoon: kokeellinen tutkimus kuivumisen vaikutuksesta

Soilla on merkittävä rooli ilmastonmuutoksen hillitsemisessä suuren hiilivarastonsa sekä ekosysteemin ja ilmakehän välisen kaasunvaihdon ansiosta. Ilmastonmuutoksen ennustetaan vaikuttavan suokasvillisuuteen ja suon toimintaan epäsuorasti. Vedenpinnan ennustetaan laskevan 14–21 cm johtuen kasveista ja avoimilta pinnoilta tapahtuvan haihdunnan lisääntymisestä lämpötilan noustessa, mikäli sadanta ei lisäänny. Aiemmat vedenpinnan laskun jälkeistä kasvillisuutta seuranneet tutkimukset ovat osoittaneet, että putkilokasvit hyötyvät alhaisemmasta vedenpinnan tasosta ja että kuljuun sopeutuneet rahkasammalet kärsivät kuivuneista oloista. Kasvillisuuden runsaussuhteiden muuttumisen lisäksi kasviyhteisöjen monimuotoisuus vähenee. Erityisen herkkiä vedenpinnan laskulle ovat olleet välipinta- ja kuljurahkasammalet ja sarat. Funktionaalisten kasviryhmien vasteiden selvittämiksesi käytettiin BACI (before-after-control-impact) –tutkimusotetta. Tutkimuksessa oli kolme verrokkialaa ja kolme käsittelyalaa, joissa vedenpintaa oli laskettu 14–21 senttimetriin. Lisäksi vertailukohdaksi tutkimuksessa oli mukana kolme alaa, joissa oli tehty metsäojitus n. 50 vuotta sitten. Nämä toistot sijaitsivat meso-, oligo ombrotrofisilla suotyypeillä Oriveden Lakkasuolla. Kasvillisuus kartoitettiin ja vedenpinnat mitattiin aloilta ennen käsittelyä vuonna 2000 sekä vuosina 2001–2003 ja 2009. Aineisto analysoitiin TWINSPAN- (PC-Ord), PRC ja DCA (CANOCO)-monimuuttujamenetelmillä. Tulokset osoittivat, että verrokki- ja käsittelyalat olivat samanlaisia lähtökohdiltaan, joten niitä voitiin käsittelyn jälkeen verrata toisiinsa. Kasvillisuuden rakenne vaihteli vuosien välillä myös verrokkialoilla, mikä osoittaa kasvien sopeutumiskyvyn muuttuviin sääoloihin (lämpötila, sademäärä). Vuosi 2003 erottui tutkimuksessa alhaisella vedenpinnantasolla, mutta toisaalta myös ainavihantien varpujen suuren peittävyyden osalta. Vuoteen 2009 mennessä kasvillisuuden erityisesti sarojen peittävyys väheni. Ravinteikkaimmilla toistoilla kasvillisuuden vasteet vaikuttivat olevan vahvemmat kuin vähäravinteisilla toistoilla. Kasviryhmistä kulju- ja välipintasammalilla oli vahvimmat vasteetvedenpinnan laskuun ja mätäslajeilla heikoimmat. Tulosten mukaan kasviryhmien vasteet vaihtelevat riippuen tarkasteltavasta aikajaksosta: ensimmäiset kolme vuotta käsittelyn jälkeen suo oli häiriötilassa ja vasta sen jälkeen kasvillisuus sopeutui muuttuneisiin oloihin.