Construção de conhecimento em governança corporativa: estudo sobre a criação de valor para tomada de decisão de investidores no mercado de capitais

Pós-graduação em Ciência da Informação - FFC

Impacts of Trade in Non-timber Forest Products on Cooperation among Caboclo Households of the Brazilian Amazon

Trade in non-timber forest products (NTFPs) has been touted as promoting forest conservation and enhancing the well-being of local residents through increased cash income, which is considered a positive outcome. However, research on cooperation has demonstrated that increased market access and income may strengthen or weaken cooperation. Because cooperation is essential for community resilience in small-scale societies, negative effects on people's well-being can be expected if increased NTFP trade reduces cooperation. To evaluate whether NTFP trade affected cooperation, we used household data (survey and systematic observations) to compare the frequency of cooperation in two communities of Brazilian Amazon Caboclos, one of which engaged in NTFP trade, while the other did not. Cooperation was less frequent in the community trading NTFPs, but neither household cash income nor household participation in NTFP exploitation was associated with cooperative behavior. Decreased frequency most likely derived from indirect effects of NTFP trade, such as less time to fish or socialize, or other outcomes observable only at the community level, such as income inequality, the influx of new residents and consequent population growth. Our results indicate that conservation and development projects based on NTFP trade may negatively impact social and economic well-being of local communities.

Essays on behavioral aspects of the design and disclosure of compensation contracts

This thesis consists of four essays on the design and disclosure of compensation contracts. Essays 1, 2 and 3 focus on behavioral aspects of mandatory compensation disclosure rules and of contract negotiations in agency relationships. The three experimental studies develop psychology- based theory and present results that deviate from standard economic predictions. Furthermore, the results of Essay 1 and 2 also have implications for firms’ discretion in how to communicate their top management’s incentives to the capital market. Essay 4 analyzes the role of fairness perceptions for the evaluation of executive compensation. For this purpose, two surveys targeting representative eligible voters as well as investment professionals were conducted. Essay 1 investigates the role of the detailed ‘Compensation Discussion and Analysis’, which is part of the Security and Exchange Commission’s 2006 regulation, on investors’ evaluations of executive performance. Compensation disclosure complying with this regulation clarifies the relationship between realized reported compensation and the underlying performance measures and their target achievement levels. The experimental findings suggest that the salient presentation of executives’ incentives inherent in the ‘Compensation Discussion and Analysis’ makes investors’ performance evaluations less outcome dependent. Therefore, investors’ judgment and investment decisions might be less affected by noisy environmental factors that drive financial performance. The results also suggest that fairness perceptions of compensation contracts are essential for investors’ performance evaluations in that more transparent disclosure increases the perceived fairness of compensation and the performance evaluation of managers who are not responsible for a bad financial performance. These results have important practical implications as firms might choose to communicate their top management’s incentive compensation more transparently in order to benefit from less volatile expectations about their future performance. Similar to the first experiment, the experiment described in Essay 2 addresses the question of more transparent compensation disclosure. However, other than the first experiment, the second experiment does not analyze the effect of a more salient presentation of contract information but the informational effect of contract information itself. For this purpose, the experiment tests two conditions in which the assessment of the compensation contracts’ incentive compatibility, which determines executive effort, is either possible or not. On the one hand, the results suggest that the quality of investors’ expectations about executive effort is improved, but on the other hand investors might over-adjust their prior expectations about executive effort if being confronted with an unexpected financial performance and under-adjust if the financial performance confirms their prior expectations. Therefore, in the experiment, more transparent compensation disclosure does not lead to more correct overall judgments of executive effort and to even lower processing quality of outcome information. These results add to the literature on disclosure which predominantly advocates more transparency. The findings of the experiment however, identify decreased information processing quality as a relevant disclosure cost category. Firms might therefore carefully evaluate the additional costs and benefits of more transparent compensation disclosure. Together with the results from the experiment in Essay 1, the two experiments on compensation disclosure imply that firms should rather focus on their discretion how to present their compensation disclosure to benefit from investors’ improved fairness perceptions and their spill-over on performance evaluation. Essay 3 studies the behavioral effects of contextual factors in recruitment processes that do not affect the employer’s or the applicant’s bargaining power from a standard economic perspective. In particular, the experiment studies two common characteristics of recruitment processes: Pre-contractual competition among job applicants and job applicants’ non-binding effort announcements as they might be made during job interviews. Despite the standard economic irrelevance of these factors, the experiment develops theory regarding the behavioral effects on employees’ subsequent effort provision and the employers’ contract design choices. The experimental findings largely support the predictions. More specifically, the results suggest that firms can benefit from increased effort and, therefore, may generate higher profits. Further, firms may seize a larger share of the employment relationship’s profit by highlighting the competitive aspects of the recruitment process and by requiring applicants to make announcements about their future effort. Finally, Essay 4 studies the role of fairness perceptions for the public evaluation of executive compensation. Although economic criteria for the design of incentive compensation generally do not make restrictive recommendations with regard to the amount of compensation, fairness perceptions might be relevant from the perspective of firms and standard setters. This is because behavioral theory has identified fairness as an important determinant of individuals’ judgment and decisions. However, although fairness concerns about executive compensation are often stated in the popular media and even in the literature, evidence on the meaning of fairness in the context of executive compensation is scarce and ambiguous. In order to inform practitioners and standard setters whether fairness concerns are exclusive to non-professionals or relevant for investment professionals as well, the two surveys presented in Essay 4 aim to find commonalities in the opinions of representative eligible voters and investments professionals. The results suggest that fairness is an important criterion for both groups. Especially, exposure to risk in the form of the variable compensation share is an important criterion shared by both groups. The higher the assumed variable share, the higher is the compensation amount to be perceived as fair. However, to a large extent, opinions on executive compensation depend on personality characteristics, and to some extent, investment professionals’ perceptions deviate systematically from those of non-professionals. The findings imply that firms might benefit from emphasizing the riskiness of their managers’ variable pay components and, therefore, the findings are also in line with those of Essay 1.

Institutional Development of Capital Markets in Nine Asian Economies

This paper is conducting a comparative analysis of the development of securities markets in nine Asian economies: Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and China. This study focuses on two aspects: the history and institutional development of securities market, such as legal systems, payment systems, etc. From the analyses, this paper reveals several common features of the development of securities markets in nine Asian economies. First, most economies had an informal capital market in the early period of their history. Second, the background of the foundation of their official markets was influenced by experiences of colonization. Third, most governments recognized the importance of the capital market for economic development and had a positive attitude in promoting the market. Fourth, statistics clearly showed that most economies experienced several booms in their capital market from the late 1980s.

Evidências internacionais dos efeitos da atuação de investidores institucionais na anomalia dos accruals

Os investidores institucionais, tais como os fundos de pensão, são entidades que administram recursos de numerosos grupos de pessoas, e que, por isso, tendem a gerir grandes carteiras de investimento e a ter incentivos para se tornar bem informados. Por isso, espera-se que eles sejam bons representantes da classe de investidores sofisticados, ou bem informados, e que o aumento de sua presença no mercado de capitais melhore a velocidade do ajuste do preço, contribuindo para evitar ineficiências do mercado, como, por exemplo, a anomalia dos accruals (Sloan, 1996), que é um atraso na revisão dos preços diante da informação sobre a magnitude dos accruals do lucro. Assim, o objetivo deste estudo é analisar, em diversos países, o impacto da participação de investidores institucionais sobre a anomalia dos accruals. São formuladas quatro hipóteses: (i) a proporção de informações sobre o desempenho futuro da empresa refletida no preço de sua ação é positivamente relacionada com o percentual de participação societária dos investidores institucionais; (ii) quanto maior for o percentual da participação societária de investidores institucionais, maior será a qualidade do lucro; (iii) quanto maior for a value relevance do lucro, maior será a anomalia dos accruals; e (iv) quanto maior for a participação societária dos investidores institucionais, menor será a anomalia dos accruals. Para se atingir os objetivos, a bibliografia sobre investidores institucionais, investidores sofisticados e anomalia dos accruals é analisada e cotejada com a literatura sobre value relevance e qualidade do lucro, em especial com o de Dechow e Dichev (2002). A pesquisa empírica utiliza dados de empresas não financeiras listadas nas bolsas de valores da Alemanha, do Brasil, da Espanha, dos Estados Unidos, da França, da Holanda, da Itália, do Reino Unido e da Suíça, e cobre o período de 2004 a 2013. A amostra contempla entre 2.314 e 4.076 empresas, totalizando entre 15.902 e 20.174 observações, a depender do modelo estimado. São realizadas regressões com dados em painel, uma abordagem de equações aparentemente não relacionadas (Seemingly Unrelated Regression - SUR) e a aplicação do teste de Mishkin (1983). Constata-se que nos Estados Unidos e na Itália os investidores institucionais são mais bem informados que os demais, e que na Alemanha, nos Estados Unidos, na França e no Reino Unido eles exercem um papel de monitoramento, pressionando por lucros de qualidade superior. Não se constata, porém, relação positiva entre value relevance do lucro e anomalia dos accruals, nem entre participação de investidores institucionais e esta anomalia. O estudo enriquece a discussão sobre o mercado ser eficiente a longo prazo, mas apresentar anomalias no curto prazo; enfatiza a importância de o investidor ser capaz de converter informações em previsão e avaliação; discute o vínculo entre o papel de monitoramento dos investidores institucionais e a qualidade do lucro; e avalia a relação entre a atuação destes investidores e o prices lead earnings.

Efeitos da adoção obrigatória das IFRS sobre a qualidade do ambiente informacional: a relevância dos fatores institucionais

O estudo investiga os efeitos da adoção obrigatória das IFRS sobre a qualidade do ambiente informacional e confirma a hipótese de que os incentivos econômicos associados aos fatores institucionais são mais relevantes do que os padrões contábeis para explicar a qualidade do ambiente informacional. Foi utilizada uma amostra de 15 países que não passaram por reformas significativas na estrutura de enforcement legal, proporcionando uma estratégia de identificação econométrica mais robusta. Os países analisados adotaram as IFRS em momentos diferentes a partir de 2006. Foram utilizadas quatro métricas de qualidade dos accruals e três métricas de performance dos analistas para operacionalizar a variável dependente qualidade do ambiente informacional. Além disso, foram utilizadas como variáveis mediadoras diversas características institucionais com potencial de afetar os incentivos à elaboração e divulgação de demonstrações financeiras. Os resultados indicam que a adoção obrigatória das IFRS afetou de forma negativa a qualidade dos accruals e a performance dos analistas. No entanto, esses resultados são contingentes à qualidade da infraestrutura institucional da jurisdição que adotou as IFRS como modelo contábil obrigatório. Os efeitos das IFRS foram significativamente mais positivos (ou menos negativos) para os países com origem legal common law, estrutura de enforcement legal mais forte, mercado de capitais mais desenvolvido, menor diferença entre padrões contábeis locais e padrões internacionais, maior grau de liberdade econômica, menor corrupção percebida e instituições mais sólidas. Foram realizados testes de robustez para verificar a sensibilidade desses resultados. Os resultados permaneceram qualitativamente iguais após serem aplicados diferentes critérios de amostragem, controlados os efeitos da crise financeira de 2008 e levado em conta o possível efeito aprendizado dos responsáveis pela elaboração e análise das demonstrações financeiras no primeiro ano de adoção. O estudo contribui com a literatura da área de contabilidade financeira e com os órgãos reguladores da indústria contábil ao fornecer evidências de que a adoção obrigatória das IFRS, quando não acompanhada por reformas econômicas e institucionais, não causará os benefícios informacionais esperados

International Capital Flows and Monetary Policy Spillovers

This dissertation examines the drivers and implications of international capital flows. The overarching motivation is the observation that countries not at the centre of global financial markets are subject to considerable spillovers from centre countries, notably from their monetary policy. I present new empirical evidence on the determinants of the observed patterns of international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, and study their effect on both financial markets and the real economy. In Chapter 2 I provide evidence on the determinants of a puzzling negative correlation observed between productivity growth and net capital inflows to developing and emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1980. By disaggregating net capital inflows into their gross components, I show that this negative correlation is explained by capital outflows related to purchases of very liquid assets from the fastest growing countries. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast growing countries is driving much of the original puzzle. In the reminder of my dissertation I pivot to study the foreign characteristics that drive international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, with a particular focus on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the United States (U.S.). In Chapter 3 I show that a significant portion of the heterogeneity in EMEs' asset price adjustment following the quantitative easing operations by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) during 2008-2014 can be explained by the degree of bilateral capital market frictions between these countries and the U.S. This is true even after accounting for capital controls, exchange rate regimes, and domestic monetary policies. Chapter 4, co-authored with Michal Ksawery Popiel, studies unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy, looking specifically at the case of Canada since the global financial crisis. We quantify the effect Canadian unconventional monetary policy shocks had on the real economy, while carefully controlling for and quantifying spillovers from U.S. unconventional monetary policy. Our results indicate that the Bank of Canada's unconventional monetary policy increased Canadian output significantly from 2009-2010, but that spillovers from the Fed's policy were even more important for increasing Canadian output after 2008.

Agricultural and Rural Capital Markets in the EU Candidate Countries: Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 8, October 2011

This paper analyses agricultural and rural capital factor markets in the three European Union candidate countries: Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia and Turkey. Aggregate capital market indicators and their dynamics, and factors driving agricultural and rural capital markets are analysed and compared in these countries. In general, agricultural and rural capital markets show similarities with general capital market developments, but agricultural and rural capital markets are facing specific credit constraints related to agricultural assets and rural fixed asset specificities, which constrain their mortgages and collateral use. Credit market imperfections have limited access to the investment credits necessary for the restructuring of small-scale individual farms. Government transfers are used to differing extents in the candidate countries, but generally tend to increase over time. Remittances and donor funds have also played an important role in agricultural and rural economy investments.

Drivers of Agricultural Physical Capital Development: Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 18, February 2012

This paper aims to identify drivers of physical capital adjustments in agriculture. It begins with a review of some of the most important theories and modelling approaches regarding firms’ adjustments of physical capital, ranging from output-based models to more recent approaches that consider irreversibility and uncertainty. Thereafter, it is suggested that determinants of physical capital adjustments in agriculture can be divided into three main groups, namely drivers related to: i) expected (risk-adjusted) profit, ii) expected societal benefits and costs and iii) expected private nonpecuniary benefits and costs. The discussion that follows focuses on the determinants belonging to the first group and covers aspects related to product market conditions, technological conditions, financial conditions and the role of firm structure and organization. Furthermore, the role of subjective beliefs is emphasized. The main part of this paper is concerned with the demand side of the physical capital market and one section also briefly discusses some aspects related to supply of farm assets.

The ‘Visible Hand’ of the ECB’s Quantitative Easing. CEPS Working Document No. 407/May 2015

Quantitative easing à la ECB has produced so far an impact on long-term nominal rates through ex ante channels: signalling channels, term duration channels, and risk premia channels. The term duration channel will also lead to a lengthening of the average maturity of government debts, with possible implications for fiscal policy. The ECB’s determination to buy government bonds in a fragmented market with a low net supply may also produce an ex post impact, during the actual asset purchases, but less on nominal rates and more on financial plumbing, as recent volatility suggests. As the effects of scarce supply in collateral markets are felt, repo rates remain well below zero. Lower supply and limited re-usability of high quality collateral, capped by regulatory requirements, is a constraint on market liquidity and compresses dealers’ balance sheets. By keeping a depressed yield curve and asset prices high, QE may also accelerate the consolidation of both traditional and capital-market based (dealer) bank business models. What is less clear is how these changing business models will interact with the sharp rise of the asset management industry in the aftermath of the crisis, which raises questions about the implications for global collateral flows and deposit-like funding channels.

Building a Capital Markets Union….or designing a financial system for the euro area? CEPS Commentary, 2 June 2015

In this CEPS Commentary, economists Anton Brender, Florence Pisani and Daniel Gros challenge the foundation on which the European Commission launched a key debate earlier this year on the development of the EU’s financial system, with publication of its Green Paper "Building a Capital Markets Union". While acknowledging that a single capital market could be useful in the European Union, they argue that it is extremely dangerous to conduct one and the same monetary policy in an area with broadly varying financial practices and structures – as the first 15 years of the euro area's history have vividly shown. They conclude that financial integration of the countries in EMU must receive top priority in a process that the rest of the European Union may then subsequently join.

Evaluating the impact of securities regulation on venture capital markets /

"Planning Office, National Bureau of Standards."

Japan's capital surplus : its origins and uses /

"March 23, 1990."

Electronic commerce investments, the resource-based view of the firm, and firm market value

Firms have embraced electronic commerce as a means of doing business, either because they see it as a way to improve efficiency, grow market share, expand into new markets, or because they view it as essential for survival. Recent research in the United States provides some evidence that the market does value investments in electronic commerce. Following research that suggests that, in certain circumstances, the market values noninnovative investments as well as innovative investments in new products, we partition electronic commerce investment project announcements into innovative and noninnovative to determine whether there are excess returns associated with these types of announcements. Apart from our overall results being consistent with the United States findings that the market values investments in electronic commerce projects, we also find that noninnovative investments are perceived as more valuable to the firm than innovative investments. On average, the market expects innovative investments to earn a return commensurate with their risk. We conclude that innovative electronic commerce projects are most likely seen by the capital market as easily replicable, and consequently have little, if any, competitive advantage period. On the other hand, we conclude from the noninnovative investment results that these types of investments are seen as being compatible with a firm's assets-in-place, in particular, its information technology capabilities, a view consistent with the resource-based view of the firm.

Board composition, ownership structure and dividend policies in an emerging market: further evidence from CASE 50

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine dividend policies in an emerging capital market, in a country undergoing a transitional period. Design/methodology/approach – Using pooled cross-sectional observations from the top 50 listed Egyptian firms between 2003 and 2005, this study examines the effect of board of directors’ composition and ownership structure on dividend policies in Egypt. Findings – It is found that there is a significant positive association between institutional ownership and firm performance, and both dividend decision and payout ratio. The results confirm that firms with a higher return on equity and a higher institutional ownership distribute higher levels of dividend. No significant association was found between board composition and dividend decisions or ratios. Originality/value – This study provides additional evidence of the applicability of the signalling model in the emerging market of Egypt. It was found that despite the high institutional ownership and the closely held nature of the firms, which imply lower agency costs, the payment of higher dividend was considered necessary to attract capital during this transitional period.