A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe

The effects of climate change will be felt by most farmers in Europe over the next decades. This study provides consistent results of the impact of climate change on arable agriculture in Europe by using high resolution climate data, socio-economic data, and impact assessment models, including farmer adaptation. All scenarios are consistent with the spatial distribution of effects, exacerbating regional disparities and current vulnerability to climate. Since the results assume no restrictions on the use of water for irrigation or on the application of agrochemicals, they may be considered optimistic from the production point of view and somewhat pessimistic from the environmental point of view. The results provide an estimate of the regional economic impact of climate change, as well as insights into the importance of mitigation and adaptation policies.

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, to select alternatives and the development of plans for the adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it

Climate change is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most of the countries and international organisms UNO, OECD, EC, etc … the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. Nevertheless, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model should help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, that will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly, in vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will take into consideration criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion), sanitary and environmental, at the present moment and the future.

A long marine history of carbon cycle modulation by orbital-climatic changes

Pacing of the marine carbon cycle by orbital forcing during the Pliocene and Pleistocene Ice Ages [past 2.5 million years (Myr)] is well known. As older deep-sea sediment records are being studied at greater temporal resolution, it is becoming clear that similar fluctuations in the marine carbon system have occurred throughout the late Mesozoic and Tertiary, despite the absence of large continental ice sheets over much of this time. Variations in both the organic and the calcium carbonate components of the marine carbon system seem to have varied cyclically in response to climate forcing, and carbon and carbonate time series appear to accurately characterize the frequency spectrum of ancient climatic change. For the past 35 Myr, much of the variance in carbonate content carries the “polar” signal of obliquity [41,000 years (41 kyr)] forcing. Over the past 125 Myr, there is evidence from marine sediments of the continued role of precessional (≈21 kyr) climatic cycles. Repeat patterns of sedimentation at about 100, 400, and 2,400 kyr, the modulation periods of precession, persistently enter into marine carbon cycle records as well. These patterns suggest a nonlinear response of climate and/or the sedimentation of organic carbon and carbonates to precessional orbital perturbations. Nonlinear responses of the carbon system may help to amplify relatively weak orbital insolation anomalies into more significant climatic perturbations through positive feedback effects. Nonlinearities in the carbon cycle may have transformed orbital-climatic cycles into long-wavelength features on time scales comparable to the residence times of carbon and nutrient elements in the ocean.

Mineral-magnetic record of Late Quaternary climatic changes in a high Alpine lake

The magnetic properties of a sediment core from a high altitude lake in the Swiss Alps were compared with palynological and geochemical data to link climatic and mineral magnetic variations. According to pollen data, the sediments extend from the present to the Younger Dryas, i.e., they cover more than 10,000 years of environmental change in the Alps. The major change in magnetic properties corresponds to the climatic warming of the early Holocene. High-coercivity magnetic minerals that characterize the Late Glacial period almost disappeared during the Holocene and the concentration of ferrimagnetic minerals increased sharply. The contribution of superparamagnetic grains also decreased in the Holocene sediments. Similar variations in {SP} content and coercivity, of smaller magnitude, are found in the Holocene and are interpreted to represent minor climatic variations. Comparison with the historical record of the last 1000 years confirms this interpretation. The magnetic mineralogy, the superparamagnetic contents, and the {IRM} intensity in the coarse-grained, Late Glacial sediments are similar to those measured in the catchment bedrock. This indicates a detrital origin. The different properties and the higher concentration of magnetic minerals in the Holocene sediments are due to authigenic phases. Magnetic properties provide a high resolution record of climatic change. They are sensitive even to small variations that are not recorded in the pollen or {LOI} data. Magnetic parameters show fine-scale variation and constitute a valuable supplement to conventional climatic indicators.

Climatic variability in the southwest Pacific during the Last Termination (20-10 kyr BP)

The degree to which palaeoclimatic changes in the Southern Hemisphere co-varied with events in the high latitude Northern Hemisphere during the Last Termination is a contentious issue, with conflicting evidence for the degree of 'teleconnection' between different regions of the Southern Hemisphere. The available hypotheses are difficult to test robustly, however, because there are few detailed palaeoclimatic records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present climatic reconstructions from the southwestern Pacific, a key region in the Southern Hemisphere because of the potentially important role it plays in global climate change. The reconstructions for the period 20-10 kyr BP were obtained from five sites along a transect from southern New Zealand, through Australia to Indonesia, supported by 125 calibrated C-14 ages. Two periods of significant climatic change can be identified across the region at around 17 and 14.2 cal kyr BP, most probably associated with the onset of warming in the West Pacific Warm Pool and the collapse of Antarctic ice during Meltwater Pulse-1A, respectively. The severe geochronological constraints that inherently afflict age models based on radiocarbon dating and the lack of quantified climatic parameters make more detailed interpretations problematic, however. There is an urgent need to address the geochronological limitations, and to develop more precise and quantified estimates of the pronounced climate variations that clearly affected this region during the Last Termination. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

Temporal differences across a bio-geographical boundary reveal slow response of sub-littoral benthos to climate change

The English Channel is located at the biogeographical boundary between the northern Boreal and southern Lusitanian biozones and therefore represents an important area to study the effects of global warming on marine organisms. While the consequences of climatic change in the western English Channel have been relatively well documented for fish, plankton and inter-tidal benthic communities, data highlighting the same effects on the distribution of sub-littoral benthic organisms does, to date, not exist. The present study resurveyed a subset of sites originally surveyed from 1958 to 1959 along the UK coast of the English Channel. The main aims of this resurvey were to describe the present status of benthic communities and to investigate potential temporal changes, in particular distributional changes in western stenothermal ‘cold’ water and southern Lusitanian ‘warm’ water species. The increase in water temperature observed since the historic survey was predicted to have caused a contraction in the distribution of cold water species and an extension in the distribution of warm water species. The temporal comparison did not show any clear broad-scale distributional changes in benthic communities consistent with these predictions. Nevertheless, 2 warm water species, the sting winkle Ocenebra erinacea and the introduced American slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata, did show range extensions and increased occurrence, possibly related to climatic warming. Similarly, warm water species previously not recorded by the historic survey were found. The absence of broad-scale temporal differences in sub-tidal communities in response to climatic warming has been reported for other areas and may indicate that these communities respond far more slowly to environmental changes compared to plankton, fish and inter-tidal organisms.

Temporal differences across a bio-geographical boundary reveal slow response of sub-littoral benthos to climate change

The English Channel is located at the biogeographical boundary between the northern Boreal and southern Lusitanian biozones and therefore represents an important area to study the effects of global warming on marine organisms. While the consequences of climatic change in the western English Channel have been relatively well documented for fish, plankton and inter-tidal benthic communities, data highlighting the same effects on the distribution of sub-littoral benthic organisms does, to date, not exist. The present study resurveyed a subset of sites originally surveyed from 1958 to 1959 along the UK coast of the English Channel. The main aims of this resurvey were to describe the present status of benthic communities and to investigate potential temporal changes, in particular distributional changes in western stenothermal ‘cold’ water and southern Lusitanian ‘warm’ water species. The increase in water temperature observed since the historic survey was predicted to have caused a contraction in the distribution of cold water species and an extension in the distribution of warm water species. The temporal comparison did not show any clear broad-scale distributional changes in benthic communities consistent with these predictions. Nevertheless, 2 warm water species, the sting winkle Ocenebra erinacea and the introduced American slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata, did show range extensions and increased occurrence, possibly related to climatic warming. Similarly, warm water species previously not recorded by the historic survey were found. The absence of broad-scale temporal differences in sub-tidal communities in response to climatic warming has been reported for other areas and may indicate that these communities respond far more slowly to environmental changes compared to plankton, fish and inter-tidal organisms.

Nature-based solutions to climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban areas: perspectives on indicators, knowledge gaps, barriers, and opportunities for action

Nature-based solutions promoting green and blue urban areas have significant potential to decrease the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of cities in light of climatic change. They can thereby help to mitigate climate change-induced impacts and serve as proactive adaptation options for municipalities. We explore the various contexts in which nature-based solutions are relevant for climate mitigation and adaptation in urban areas, identify indicators for assessing the effectiveness of nature-based solutions and related knowledge gaps. In addition, we explore existing barriers and potential opportunities for increasing the scale and effectiveness of nature-based solution implementation. The results were derived from an inter- and transdisciplinary workshop with experts from research, municipalities, policy, and society. As an outcome of the workshop discussions and building on existing evidence, we highlight three main needs for future science and policy agendas when dealing with nature-based solutions: (i) produce stronger evidence on nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation and mitigation and raise awareness by increasing implementation; (ii) adapt for governance challenges in implementing nature-based solutions by using reflexive approaches, which implies bringing together new networks of society, nature-based solution ambassadors, and practitioners; (iii) consider socio-environmental justice and social cohesion when implementing nature-based solutions by using integrated governance approaches that take into account an integrative and transdisciplinary participation of diverse actors. Taking these needs into account, nature-based solutions can serve as climate mitigation and adaptation tools that produce additional cobenefits for societal well-being, thereby serving as strong investment options for sustainable urban planning.

Respostas fisiológicas de plantas amazônicas de regiões alagadas às mudanças climáticas globais

Conforme previsões do último relatório do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change) em 2007, até meados deste século haverá um aumento na concentração de CO2 na atmosfera podendo chegar a 720 μmol mol-1. Consequentemente haverá uma elevação da temperatura de até +3 °C, o que ocorrerá em conjunto com mudanças no padrão de precipitação. O mesmo relatório sugere que isto poderá acarretar uma substituição gradual da floresta tropical por vegetação similar a uma savana na parte oriental da Amazônia, porém nada é conclusivo. Diante dessas possibilidades, pergunta-se - Como as espécies de árvores que compõem as regiões de alagamento da Amazônia irão responder às alterações climáticas por vir? Apesar dessas previsões serem pessimistas, o alagamento ainda ocorrerá por vários anos na Amazônia e é de grande importância compreender os efeitos do alagamento sobre as respostas fisiológicas das plantas num contexto das mudanças climáticas. Os principais efeitos sobre a sinalização metabólica e hormonal durante o alagamento são revisados e os possíveis efeitos que as mudanças climáticas poderão ter sobre as plantas amazônicas são discutidos. As informações existentes sugerem que sob alagamento, as plantas tendem a mobilizar reservas para suprir a demanda de carbono necessário para a manutenção do metabolismo sob o estresse da falta de oxigênio. Até certo limite, com o aumento da concentração de CO2, as plantas tendem a fazer mais fotossíntese e a produzir mais biomassa, que poderão aumentar ainda mais com um acréscimo de temperatura de até 3 °C. Alternativamente, com o alagamento, há uma diminuição geral do potencial de crescimento e é possível que quando em condições de CO2 e temperatura elevados os efeitos positivo e negativo se somem. Com isso, as respostas fisiológicas poderão ser amenizadas ou, ainda, promover maior crescimento para a maioria das espécies de regiões alagáveis até o meio do século. Porém, quando a temperatura e o CO2 atingirem valores acima dos ótimos para a maioria das plantas, estas possivelmente diminuirão a atividade fisiológica.

Life-History Evolution on Tropidurinae Lizards: Influence of Lineage, Body Size and Climate

The study of life history variation is central to the evolutionary theory. In many ectothermic lineages, including lizards, life history traits are plastic and relate to several sources of variation including body size, which is both a factor and a life history trait likely to modulate reproductive parameters. Larger species within a lineage, for example tend to be more fecund and have larger clutch size, but clutch size may also be influenced by climate, independently of body size. Thus, the study of climatic effects on lizard fecundity is mandatory on the current scenario of global climatic change. We asked how body and clutch size have responded to climate through time in a group of tropical lizards, the Tropidurinae, and how these two variables relate to each other. We used both traditional and phylogenetic comparative methods. Body and clutch size are variable within Tropidurinae, and both traits are influenced by phylogenetic position. Across the lineage, species which evolved larger size produce more eggs and neither trait is influenced by temperature components. A climatic component of precipitation, however, relates to larger female body size, and therefore seems to exert an indirect relationship on clutch size. This effect of precipitation on body size is likely a correlate of primary production. A decrease in fecundity is expected for Tropidurinae species on continental landmasses, which are predicted to undergo a decrease in summer rainfall.

Late Pleistocene and Holocene vegetation changes in northeastern Brazil determined from carbon isotopes and charcoal records in soils

Northeastern Brazil represents a strategic area in terms of Quaternary records of environmental changes in South America due to its distinct semi-arid climate in near equatorial latitudes. In this study, carbon isotope and charcoal distribution records in soils are used to characterize vegetation dynamics, forest fires and their relation to climate change since the Late Pleistocene in the States of Ceara, Piaui and Paraiba, Northeastern Brazil. At the Ceara site, the carbon isotope record showed an enrichment trend from -24%(o) to 19%(o) during the early-mid Holocene, indicating an opening of vegetation and expansion of savanna vegetation (C(4) plants) during this period. A trend toward more depleted delta(13)C values (similar to-32%.) in the late Holocene indicates an expansion of forest vegetation (C(3) plants). A similar trend is observed at the Piaui and Paraiba sites where values of similar to-24%0 are associated with open forest vegetation during the late Pleistocene. In the early-mid Holocene, delta(13)C values of up to -18.0%(o), suggest the expansion of C4 plants. Based on the carbon isotope data, it is postulated that from similar to 18,000 cal yr B.P. to similar to 11,800 cal yr B.P.-similar to 10,000 cal yr B.P. arboreal vegetation was dominant in northeastern Brazil and is associated with humid climates. The savanna expanded from similar to 10,000 cal yr B.P. to similar to 4500-3200 cal yr B.P. due to a less humid/drier climatic phase, also supported by the significant presence of fires (charcoal fragments in the soil). From approximately 3200-2000 cal yr B.P. to the present, carbon isotope records suggest forest expansion and a more humid phase. These results form part of a regional pattern since they are in agreement with paleovegetation records obtained in regions of Maranhao, northeastern Brazil and in the Amazon and Rondonia States, northern Brazil. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stratigraphy of near-valley head quaternary deposits and evidence of climate-driven slope-channel processes in southern Brazilian highlands

During the past 40 years colluvial and alluvial deposits have been used in Brazil as good indicators of regional landscape sensitivity to Quaternary environmental changes. In spite of the low resolution of most of the continental sedimentary record, geomorphology and sedimentology may favor palaeoenvironmental interpretation when supported by independent proxy data. This paper presents results obtained from pedostratigraphic sequences, in near-valley head sites of southern Brazilian highlands, based on geomorphologic. sedimentologic, micromorphologic, isotopic and palynologic data. Results point to environmental changes, with ages that coincide with Marine Isotopic Stages (MIS) 5b; 3; 2 and 1. During the late Pleistocene, although under temperatures and precipitation lower than today, the local record points to relatively wet local environments, where shallow soil-water saturated zones contributed to erosion and sedimentation during periods of climatic change, as during the transition between MIS 2 and MIS 1. Late Pleistocene events with ages that coincide with the Northern Hemisphere Younger Dryas are also depicted. During the mid Holocene, slope-wash deposits suggest a climate drier than today, probably under the influence of seasonally contrasted precipitation regimes. The predominance of overland flow-related sedimentary deposits suggests an excess of precipitation over evaporation that influenced local palaeohydrology. This environmental condition seems to be recurrent and explains how slope morphology had influenced pedogenesis and sedimentation in the study area. Due to relative sensitiveness, resilience and short source-to-sink sedimentary pathways, near-valley head sites deserve further attention in Quaternary studies in the humid tropics. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.A. All rights reserved.

Radiation of the Australian flora: What can comparisons of molecular phylogenies across multiple taxa tell us about the evolution of diversity in present-day communities?

The Australian fossil record shows that from ca. 25 Myr ago, the aseasonal-wet biome (rainforest and wet heath) gave way to the unique Australian sclerophyll biomes dominated by eucalypts, acacias and casuarinas. This transition coincided with tectonic isolation of Australia, leading to cooler, drier, more seasonal climates. From 3 Myr ago, aridification caused rapid opening of the central Australian and zone. Molecular phylogenies with dated nodes have provided new perspectives on how these events could have affected the evolution of the Australian flora. During the Mid-Cenozoic (25-10 Myr ago) period of climatic change, there were rapid radiations in sclerophyll taxa, such as Banksia, eucalypts, pea-flowered legumes and Allocasuarina. At the same time, taxa restricted to the aseasonal-wet biome (Nothofagus, Podocarpaceae and Araucariaceae) did not radiate or were depleted by extinction. During the Pliocene aridification, two Eremean biome taxa (Lepidium and Chenopodiaceae) radiated rapidly after dispersing into Australia from overseas. It is clear that the biomes have different histories. Lineages in the aseasonal-wet biome are species poor, with sister taxa that are species rich, either outside Australia or in the sclerophyll biomes. In conjunction with the fossil record, this indicates depletion of the Australian aseasonal-wet biome from the Mid-Cenozoic. In the sclerophyll biomes, there have been multiple exchanges between the southwest and southeast, rather than single large endemic radiations after a vicariance event. There is need for rigorous molecular phylogenetic studies so that additional questions can be addressed, such as how interactions between biomes may have driven the speciation process during radiations. New studies should include the hither-to neglected monsoonal tropics.