Variation in the proportion of flower visitors of Arum maculatum along its distributional range in relation with community‐based climatic niche analyses

Here, we investigate the geographical constancy in the specificity level of the specialized lure-and-trap pollination antagonism involving the widespread European Arum maculatum and its associated Psychodid pollinators. Until now, studies concurred in demonstrating that one single insect species, Psychoda phalaenoides, efficiently cross-pollinated plants; researches were, however, performed locally in western Europe. In this study we characterize for the first time the flower visitors' composition at the scale of the distribution range of A. maculatum by intensively collecting plants and insects throughout the European continent. We further correlate local climatic characteristics with the community composition of visiting arthropods.Our results show that flowers are generally visited by P. phalaenoides females, but not over the whole distribution range of the plant. In some regions this fly species is less frequent or even absent and another species, Psycha grisescens, becomes the prevailing visitor. This variability is geographically structured and can be explained by climatic factors: the proportion of P. grisescens increases with higher annual precipitations and lower precipitations in the warmest trimester, two characteristics typical of the Mediterranean zone. Climate thus seems driving the specificity of this interaction, by potentially affecting the phenology of one or both interacting species, or even of volatile and heat production in the plant. This result therefore challenges the specificity of other presumably one-to-one interactions covering wide distribution ranges, and provides an example of the direct effect that the abiotic environment can have on the fate of plant-insect interactions.

Data-driven topo-climatic mapping with machine learning methods

Automatic environmental monitoring networks enforced by wireless communication technologies provide large and ever increasing volumes of data nowadays. The use of this information in natural hazard research is an important issue. Particularly useful for risk assessment and decision making are the spatial maps of hazard-related parameters produced from point observations and available auxiliary information. The purpose of this article is to present and explore the appropriate tools to process large amounts of available data and produce predictions at fine spatial scales. These are the algorithms of machine learning, which are aimed at non-parametric robust modelling of non-linear dependencies from empirical data. The computational efficiency of the data-driven methods allows producing the prediction maps in real time which makes them superior to physical models for the operational use in risk assessment and mitigation. Particularly, this situation encounters in spatial prediction of climatic variables (topo-climatic mapping). In complex topographies of the mountainous regions, the meteorological processes are highly influenced by the relief. The article shows how these relations, possibly regionalized and non-linear, can be modelled from data using the information from digital elevation models. The particular illustration of the developed methodology concerns the mapping of temperatures (including the situations of Föhn and temperature inversion) given the measurements taken from the Swiss meteorological monitoring network. The range of the methods used in the study includes data-driven feature selection, support vector algorithms and artificial neural networks.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Oxygen isotope sector zoning in natural hydrothermal quartz

Oxygen isotope measurements using SIMS and laser-fluorination methods confirm the presence of concentric and sector zoning in low-temperature (200 degrees C to < 400 degrees C) hydrothermal quartz from Alpine veins. While concentric zoning is most readily explained by changes in the chemical composition of the fluid or temperature of crystallization, the reasons for sector zoning are more difficult to explain. Relative enrichment in (18)O for crystallographically different sectors of quartz corresponds to m > r > z. Sector zoning is, however, largely limited to the exterior zones of crystals and/or to crystals with large Al (> 1000 ppm) and trace element contents, probably formed at temperatures < 250 degrees C. Differences in delta(18)O between the prismatic (m) relative to the rhombohedral (r and z) growth sectors of up to 2 parts per thousand can be explained by a combination of a face-related crystallographic and/or a growth rate control. In contrast, isotopic sector zoning of up to about 1.5 parts per thousand amongst the different rhombohedral faces increases in parallel with the trace element content and is likely to represent disequilibrium growth. This is indicated by non-systematic, up to 2 parts per thousand, differences within single growth zones and the irregular, larger or smaller, delta(18)O values (of several permil) of the exterior compared to the inner zones of the same crystals. Disequilibrium growth may be related to the large trace element content incorporated into the growing quartz at lower temperatures (< 250 degrees C) and/or be related to fluid-vapour separation, allowing crystal growth from both a vapour as well as a liquid phase.

Phylogenetics of Olea (Oleaceae) based on plastid and nuclear ribosomal DNA sequences: tertiary climatic shifts and lineage differentiation times.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The genus Olea (Oleaceae) includes approx. 40 taxa of evergreen shrubs and trees classified in three subgenera, Olea, Paniculatae and Tetrapilus, the first of which has two sections (Olea and Ligustroides). Olive trees (the O. europaea complex) have been the subject of intensive research, whereas little is known about the phylogenetic relationships among the other species. To clarify the biogeographical history of this group, a molecular analysis of Olea and related genera of Oleaceae is thus necessary. METHODS: A phylogeny was built of Olea and related genera based on sequences of the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer-1 and four plastid regions. Lineage divergence and the evolution of abaxial peltate scales, the latter character linked to drought adaptation, were dated using a Bayesian method. KEY RESULTS: Olea is polyphyletic, with O. ambrensis and subgenus Tetrapilus not sharing a most recent common ancestor with the main Olea clade. Partial incongruence between nuclear and plastid phylogenetic reconstructions suggests a reticulation process in the evolution of subgenus Olea. Estimates of divergence times for major groups of Olea during the Tertiary were obtained. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates the necessity of revising current taxonomic boundaries in Olea. The results also suggest that main lines of evolution were promoted by major Tertiary climatic shifts: (1) the split between subgenera Olea and Paniculatae appears to have taken place at the Miocene-Oligocene boundary; (2) the separation of sections Ligustroides and Olea may have occurred during the Early Miocene following the Mi-1 glaciation; and (3) the diversification within these sections (and the origin of dense abaxial indumentum in section Olea) was concomitant with the aridification of Africa in the Late Miocene.

Tourism destination zoning in rural regions: a consumer-based approach in Terres de l’Ebre

This document puts into question the conventional way of delineating tourism destinations. It intends to show a model of spatial analysis, to find new interpretations of the reality, more balanced and more optimized, in comparison with other territorial views most of them based on administrative boundaries. This paper portrays a methodological exercise that aims to structure tourism geographies into new tourism areas on the basis of visitor’s consumption patterns, which would be better fitted to the needs of tourist demand

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

Climatic and anthropogenic influence on the stable isotope record from bulk carbonates and ostracodes in Lake Neuchatel, Switzerland, during the last two millennia

Lake Neuchatel is a medium sized, hard-water lake, lacking varved sediments, situated in the western Swiss Lowlands at the foot of the Jura Mountains. Stable isotope data (delta(18)O and delta(13)C) from both bulk carbonate and ostracode calcite in an 81 cm long, radiocarbon-dated sediment core represent the last 1500 years of Lake Neuchatel's environmental history. Comparison between this isotopic and other palaeolimnologic data (mineralogical, geochemical, palynological, etc.) helps to differentiate between anthropogenic and natural factors most recently affecting the lake. An increase in lacustrine productivity (450-650AD ca), inferred from the positive trend in delta(13)C values of bulk carbonate, is related to medieval forest clearances and the associated nutrient budget changes. A negative trend in both the bulk carbonate and ostracode calcite delta(18)O values between approximately 1300 and 1500AD, is tentatively interpreted as due to a cooling in mean air temperature at the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. Negative trends in bulk carbonate delta(18)O and delta(13)C values through the uppermost sediments, which have no equivalent in ostracode calcite isotopic values, are concomitant with the recent onset of eutrophication in the lake. Isotopic disequilibrium during calcite precipitation, probably due to kinetic factors in periods of high productivity is postulated as the mechanism to explain the associated negative isotopic trends, although the effect of a shift of the calcite precipitation towards the warmer months cannot be excluded.

Simulation of soybean growth and yield under northeastern Amazon climatic conditions

The objective of this work was to parameterize, calibrate, and validate a new version of the soybean growth and yield model developed by Sinclair, under natural field conditions in northeastern Amazon. The meteorological data and the values of soybean growth and leaf area were obtained from an agrometeorological experiment carried out in Paragominas, PA, Brazil, from 2006 to 2009. The climatic conditions during the experiment were very distinct, with a slight reduction in rainfall in 2007, due to the El Niño phenomenon. There was a reduction in the leaf area index (LAI) and in biomass production during this year, which was reproduced by the model. The simulation of the LAI had root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.55 to 0.82 m² m-2, from 2006 to 2009. The simulation of soybean yield for independent data showed a RMSE of 198 kg ha-1, i.e., an overestimation of 3%. The model was calibrated and validated for Amazonian climatic conditions, and can contribute positively to the improvement of the simulations of the impacts of land use change in the Amazon region. The modified version of the Sinclair model is able to adequately simulate leaf area formation, total biomass, and soybean yield, under northeastern Amazon climatic conditions.

Water relations in physic nut according to climatic seasonality, in semiarid conditions

The objective of this work was to determine the effect of climatic seasonality on physic nut (Jatropha curcas), in field, under semiarid climate conditions. Stomatal conductance (g s), transpiration (E), soluble leaf carbohydrates (SLC), free amino acids (FAA) and total proteins (TP) were measured in leaves, in a commercial plantation in Northeast Brazil, during the summer and autumn. Plants showed high g s and E, as well as SLC, FAA and TP contents in the summer, which gradually decreased with the lower temperatures and photosynthetically active radiation during the autumn, despite the higher water availability. Even in conditions of adequate water availability, the combination of low temperatures and reduced light drastically decreased foliar metabolism.

Mineral zoning and geochemistry of epithermal polymetallic Zn-Pb-Ag-Cu-Bi mineralization at Cerro de Pasco, Peru

The large Cerro de Pasco Cordilleran base metal deposit in central Peru is located on the eastern margin of a middle Miocene diatreme-dome complex and comprises two mineralization stages. The first stage consists of a large pyrite-quartz body replacing Lower Mesozoic Pucara carbonate rocks and, to a lesser extent, diatreme breccia. This body is composed of pyrite with pyrrhotite inclusions, quartz, and black and red chalcedony (containing hypogene hematite). At the contact with the pyrite-quartz body, the diatreme breccia is altered to pyrite-quartz-sericite-pyrite. This body was, in part, replaced by pipelike pyrrhotite bodies zoned outward to carbonate-replacement Zn-Pb ores hearing Fe-rich sphalerite (up to 24 mol % Fes). The second mineralization stage is partly superimposed on the first and consists of zoned east-west-trending Cu-Ag-(Au-Zn-Pb) enargite-pyrite veins hosted in the diatreme breccia in the western part of the deposit and well-zoned Zn-Pb-(Bi-Ag-Cu) carbonate-replacement orebodies; in both cases, sphalerite is Fe poor and the inner parts of the orebodies show typically advanced argillic alteration assemblages, including aluminum phosphate Sulfate (APS) minerals. The zoned enargite-pyrite veins display mineral zoning, from a core of enargite-pyrite +/- alunite with traces of Au, through an intermediate zone of tennantite, chalcopyrite, and Bi minerals to a poorly developed Outer zone hearing sphalerite-galena +/- kaolinite. The carbonate-hosted replacement ores are controlled along N 35 degrees E, N 90 degrees E, N 120 degrees E, and N 170 degrees E faults. They form well-zoned upward-flaring pipelike orebodies with a core of famatinite-pyrite and alunite, an intermediate zone with tetrahedrite-pyrite, chalcopyrite, matildite, cuprobismutite, emplectite, and other Bi minerals accompanied by APS minerals, kaolinite, and dickite, and an outer zone composed of Fe-poor sphalerite (in the range of 0.05-3.5 mol % Fes) and galena. The outermost zone consists of hematite, magnetite, and Fe-Mn-Zn-Ca-Mg carbonates. Most of the second-stage carbonate-replacement orebodies plunge between 25 degrees and 60 degrees to the west, suggesting that the hydrothermal fluids ascended from deeper levels and that no lateral feeding from the veins to the carbonate-replacement orebodies took place. In the Venencocha and Santa Rosa areas, located 2.5 km northwest of the Cerro de Pasco open pit and in the southern part of the deposit, respectively, advanced argillic altered dacitic domes and oxidized veins with advanced argillic alteration halos occur. The latter veins are possibly the oxidized equivalent of the second-stage enargite-pyrite veins located in the western part of the deposit. The alteration assemblage quartz-muscovite-pyrite associated with the pyrite-quartz body suggests that the first stage precipitated at slightly, acidic fin. The sulfide mineral assemblages define an evolutionary path close to the pyrite-pyrrhotite boundary and are characteristic of low-sulfidation states; they suggest that the oxidizing slightly acidic hydrothermal fluid was buffered by phyllite, shale, and carbonate host rock. However, the presence in the pyrite-quartz body of hematite within quartz suggests that, locally, the fluids were less buffered by the host rock. The mineral assemblages of the second mineralization stage are characteristic of high- to intermediate-sulfidation states. High-sulfidation states and oxidizing conditions were achieved and maintained in the cores of the second-stage orebodies, even in those replacing carbonate rocks. The observation that, in places, second-stage mineral assemblages are found in the inner and outer zones is explained in terms of the hydrothermal fluid advancing and waning. Microthermometric data from fluid inclusions in quartz indicate that the different ores of the first mineralization stage formed at similar temperatures and moderate salinities (200 degrees-275 degrees C and 0.2-6.8 wt % NaCl equiv in the pyrite-quartz body; 192 degrees-250 degrees C and 1.1-4.3 wt % NaCl equiv in the pyrrhotite bodies; and 183 degrees-212 degrees C and 3.2-4.0 wt % NaCl equiv in the Zn-Pb ores). These values are similar to those obtained for fluid inclusions in quartz and sphalerite from the second-stage ores (187 degrees-293 degrees C and 0.2-5.2 wt % NaCl equiv in the enargite-pyrite veins: 178 degrees-265 degrees C and 0.2-7.5 wt % NaCl equiv in quartz of carbonate-replacement orebodies; 168 degrees-999 degrees C and 3-11.8 wt % NaCl equiv in sphalerite of carbonate-replacement orebodies; and 245 degrees-261 degrees C and 3.2-7.7 wt % NaCl equiv in quartz from Venencocha). Oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions oil kaolinite from carbonate-replacement orebodies (delta(18)O = 5.3-11.5%o, delta D = -82 to -114%o) and on alunite from the Venencocha and Santa Rosa areas (delta(18)O = 1.9-6.9%o, delta D = -56 to -73%o). Oxygen isotope compositions of quartz from the first and second stages have 6180 values from 9.1 to 1.7.8 per mil. Calculated fluids in equilibrium with kaolinite have delta(18)O values of 2.0 to 8.2 and delta D values of -69 to -97 per mil; values in equilibrium with alunite are -1.4 to -6.4 and -62 to -79 per mil. Sulfur isotope compositions of sulfides from both stages have a narrow range of delta(34)S values, between -3.7 and +4.2 per mil; values for sulfates from the second stage are between 4.2 and 31.2 per mil. These results define two mixing trends for the ore-forming fluids. The first trend reflects mixing between a moderately saline (similar to 10 wt % NaCl equiv) magmatic end member that had degassed (as indicated by the low delta D values) and meteoric water. The second mixing indicates condensation of magmatic vapor with HCl and SO(2) into meteoric water, which formed alunite. The hydrothermal system at Cerro de Pasco was emplaced at a shallow depth (similar to 500 m) in the epithermal and upper part of a porphyry environment. The similar temperatures and salinities obtained for the first stage and second stages, together with the stable isotope data, indicate that both stages are linked and represent successive stages of epithermal polymetallic mineralization in the upper part of a porphyry system.

Amino acid composition of soybean seeds as affected by climatic variables

The objective of this work was to perform a quantitative analysis of the amino acid composition of soybean seeds as affected by climatic variables during seed filling. Amino acids were determined from seed samples taken at harvest in 31 multi-environment field trials carried out in Argentina. Total amino acids ranged from 31.69 to 49.14%, and total essential and nonessential amino acids varied from 12.83 to 19.02% and from 18.86 to 31.15%, respectively. Variance components expressed as the percentage of total variation showed that the environment was the most important source of variation for all traits, followed by the genotype x environment interaction. Significant explanatory linear regressions were detected for amino acid content regarding: average daily mean air temperature and cumulative solar radiation, during seed filling; precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration, during the whole reproductive period; and the combinations of these climatic variables. Each amino acid behaves differently according to environmental conditions, indicating compensatory effects among them.

Importance of abiotic stress as a range-limit determinant for European plants: insights from species' responses to climatic gradients

Aim We examined whether species occurrences are primarily limited by physiological tolerance in the abiotically more stressful end of climatic gradients (the asymmetric abiotic stress limitation (AASL) hypothesis) and the geographical predictions of this hypothesis: abiotic stress mainly determines upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal species range limits, and the importance of abiotic stress for these range limits increases the further northwards and upwards a species occurs. Location Europe and the Swiss Alps. Methods The AASL hypothesis predicts that species have skewed responses to climatic gradients, with a steep decline towards the more stressful conditions. Based on presence-absence data we examined the shape of plant species responses (measured as probability of occurrence) along three climatic gradients across latitudes in Europe (1577 species) and altitudes in the Swiss Alps (284 species) using Huisman-Olff-Fresco, generalized linear and generalized additive models. Results We found that almost half of the species from Europe and one-third from the Swiss Alps showed responses consistent with the predictions of the AASL hypothesis. Cold temperatures and a short growing season seemed to determine the upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal range limits of up to one-third of the species, while drought provided an important constraint at lower-latitudinal range limits for up to one-fifth of the species. We found a biome-dependent influence of abiotic stress and no clear support for abiotic stress as a stronger upper range-limit determinant for species with higher latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, the overall influence of climate as a range-limit determinant increased with latitude. Main conclusions Our results support the AASL hypothesis for almost half of the studied species, and suggest that temperature-related stress controls the upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal range limits of a large proportion of these species, while other factors including drought stress may be important at the lower range limits.

Impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climate risk for cotton cultivation in Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of the temperature increase forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on agricultural zoning of cotton production in Brazil. The Northeastern region showed the highest decrease in the low-risk area for cotton cultivation due to the projected temperature increase. This area in the Brazilian Northeast may decrease from 83 million ha in 2010 to approximately 71 million ha in 2040, which means 15% reduction in 30 years. Southeastern and Center-Western regions had small decrease in areas suitable for cotton production until 2040, while the Northern region showed no reduction in these areas. Temperature increase will not benefit cotton cultivation in Brazil because dimension of low-risk areas for economic cotton production may decrease.