Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2008

Includes bibliography

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2010

Includes bibliography

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2010-2011: Internacional integration and macroeconomic policy challenges amid global economic turmoil

Includes bibliography

A preliminary assessment of the policies implemented by the governments of Latin America and the Caribbean in response to the crisis - May 2010 Meeting

Includes bibliography

Insurance underwriter or financial development fund: what role for reserve pooling in Latin America?

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

A study on the capacity of statistical offices of the Caribbean to produce Environment, Social, Economic and Gender Statistics

Statistical organizations of the Caribbean countries continue to face serious challenges posed by the increased demand for more relevant, accurate and timely statistical data. Tangible progress has been made in delivering key products in the area of economic statistics. The central banks of the subregion have assisted greatly in this respect. However, even in this branch of statistics there are still several glaring gaps. The situation is even worse in other areas of statistics including social and environmental statistics. Even though all countries of the subregion have committed to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) as well as to other internationally agreed development goals serious challenges remain with respect to the compilation of the agreed indicators to assist in assessing progress towards the goals. It is acknowledged that appreciable assistance has been provided by the various donor agencies to develop statistical competence. This assistance has translated into the many gains that have been made. However, the national statistical organizations require much more help if they are to reach the plateau of self reliance in the production of the necessary statistical services. The governments of the subregion have also committed to invest more in statistical development and in promoting a statistics culture in the Caribbean. The training institutions of the subregion have also started to address this urgent need by broadening and deepening their teaching curricula. Funding support is urgently required to develop the appropriate cadre of statistical professionals to deliver the required outputs. However, this training must be continuous and must be sustained over an appropriate period since the current turnover of trained staff is high. This programme of training will need to be intensive for a period of at least five years after which it may be reduced. The modalities of training will also have to be more focused and in addition to formal training at educational institutions there is much room for on-the-job training, group training at the national level and much more south-south capacity building. There is also an urgent need to strengthen cooperation and collaboration among the donor community in the delivery of assistance for statistical development. Several development agencies with very good intentions are currently operating in the Caribbean. There is a danger however, that efforts can be duplicated if agencies do not collaborate adequately. Development agencies therefore need to consult with each other much more and share there development agenda more freely if duplication is to be averted. Moreover, the pooling of resources can surely maximize the benefits to the countries of the subregion.

Selected statistical indicators of Caribbean countries Vol. XXI

This year’s issue of the SSI features regional tables in the introductory section followed by summary country tables. As far as possible, a full series of economic and socio-economic indicators is given for all CDCC member States for the period 2001-2007. In addition, the data sources for each country are provided, thereby making this publication a good starting point for researchers who are interested in more detailed statistics. Every effort was made to ensure that those changes did not compromise the quality and usefulness of the publication. To ensure accessibility to the full data series, the complete series for each country is also available on a cd-rom. Access to these series can also be obtained through our website www.eclacpos.org . Finally, the ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean wishes to extend sincerest appreciation to the national statistical offices and central banks for their timely submissions that contributed to the overall success of this publication

Essays in Macroeconomics

The dissertation consists of four papers that aim at providing new contributions in the field of macroeconomics, monetary policy and financial stability. The first paper proposes a new Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with credit frictions and a banking sector to study the pro-cyclicality of credit and the role of different prudential regulatory frameworks in affecting business cycle fluctuations and in restoring macroeconomic and financial stability. The second paper develops a simple DSGE model capable of evaluating the effects of large purchases of treasuries by central banks. This theoretical framework is employed to evaluate the impact on yields and the macroeconomy of large purchases of medium- and long-term government bonds recently implemented in the US and UK. The third paper studies the effects of ECB communications about unconventional monetary policy operations on the perceived sovereign risk of Italy over the last five years. The empirical results are derived from both an event-study analysis and a GARCH model, which uses Italian long-term bond futures to disentangle expected from unexpected policy actions. The fourth paper proposes a DSGE model with an endogenous term structure of interest rates, which is able to replicate the stylized facts regarding the yield curve and the term premium in the US over the period 1987:3-2011:3, without compromising its ability to match macro dynamics.

The Role of Monetary Policy in Pursuing Economic Activity in Selected Transition Countries

The process of transition has brought an urgent need to develop many new market-oriented institutions or in some cases to reconstruct existing ones. One of the most important institutions of western-type economies is a central bank. It fulfils several "public good" functions, the most important of which are the achievement of stable price levels and assuring the financial stability of the economy. Nevertheless, even in economies with a long-standing market tradition, the question of whether a central bank is able to stimulate economic activity or whether all its cyclical actions lead only to changes in price levels remains open. The main purpose of this analysis was to empirically prove or disprove the relation between monetary policy and economic activity in more advanced transition countries. Basing his findings on commonly used econometric methods (causality tests, VAR modelling and simulations, simultaneous equations models), Delakorda concludes that the relation between money and economic activity is a mutual one, as there are significant differences between different countries in the conduct of monetary policy and in the environment of central banks. It is the latter which determines the relation between money and economic activity.

Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

Monetary Policy Under a Currency Board

The consensus view is that central banks under currency boards do not have tools for active monetary policy. In this paper, we analyze the foreign exchange fee as a monetary policy instrument that can be used by a central bank under a currency board. We develop a general equilibrium model showing that changes in this fee may have the same effects as a change in the monetary policy stance. Thus central banks under the currency board are shown to have an avenue to implement active monetary policy.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Malaysia before the Asian Crisis

This paper provides a case study to characterize the monetary policy regime in Malaysia, from a medium- and long-term perspective. Specifically, we ask how the central bank of Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), has structured its monetary policy regime, and how it has conducted monetary and exchange rate policy under the regime. By conducting three empirical analyses, we characterize the monetary and exchange rate policy regime in Malaysia by three intermediate solutions on three vectors: the degree of autonomy in monetary policy, the degree of variability of the exchange rate, and the degree of capital mobility.