Bayesian design and conduct of phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes: a tutorial

The aim of phase II single-arm clinical trials of a new drug is to determine whether it has sufficient promising activity to warrant its further development. For the last several years Bayesian statistical methods have been proposed and used. Bayesian approaches are ideal for earlier phase trials as they take into account information that accrues during a trial. Predictive probabilities are then updated and so become more accurate as the trial progresses. Suitable priors can act as pseudo samples, which make small sample clinical trials more informative. Thus patients have better chances to receive better treatments. The goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial for statisticians who use Bayesian methods for the first time or investigators who have some statistical background. In addition, real data from three clinical trials are presented as examples to illustrate how to conduct a Bayesian approach for phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes.

Ideological dominance in recreation provision: towards a theory of Local Authority response to Compulsory Competitive Tendering in Britain

This paper considers how the delivery of public leisure services in Britain has been affected by the imposition of Compulsory Competitive Tendering (CCT) on the management of facilities. In particular, it focuses on the changing relationship between the central and local levels of government, theorising a tripartite local response to CCT, incorporating local statism, post-Fordist rejection of CCT and post- Fordist compliance with the aims of the central administration. The paper then discusses the actual implementation of CCT, relating the theorised responses to those witnessed in practice. This results in the delineation of a continuum of stances, ranging from pragmatic forms of local statism, such as the protection of the former direct labour force, to centrist attempts to combine the ethics of socialism with the mechanics of the market, to an outright rejection of state organisation and control. The paper concludes that although legitimate attempts have been made to protect local services, the outcome of the CCT process has undoubtedly been the regeneration of public leisure provision away from its service roots towards a market model of provision.

Public leisure provision under Compulsory Competitive Tendering: the maintenance of ideological dominance?

Although much has been written about the effect on services of public sector restructuring, little is yet available on public leisure provision. This omission is addressed by considering how the delivery of public leisure services in Britain has been affected by the imposition of Compulsory Competitive Tendering (CCT). In particular, it focuses on the changing relationship between the central and local levels of government recognising, on the part of local government, a continuum of structural responses to central initiatives which have, in some cases, conspired to reduce the impact of CCT on public leisure provision. The paper concludes that although attempts have been made to protect local services, the outcome of the CCT process has been the regeneration of public leisure provision away from its service roots, but within an enduring ideological paradigm of conservative professionalism.

Nutrition in Transition: Dietary Patterns of Rural Amazonian Women During a Period of Economic Change

Objectives: The goal of this study was to understand the relationship between economic change (wage labor, retirement, and the Bolsa Familia program) and dietary patterns in the rural Amazon and to determine the extent to which these changes followed the pattern of the nutrition transition. Methods: The study was longitudinal. The weighed-inventory method and economic interviews were used to collect data on dietary intake and household economics in a sample of 30 and 52 women in 2002 and 2009, respectively. Twenty of the women participated in both years and make-up the longitudinal sub-sample. Comparative statistics were used to identify changes in dietary patterns over time and multiple linear regressions were used to explore the relationship between economics, subsistence strategies, and diet. Results: There was a significant decline in kcal (P < 0.01) and carbohydrate (P < 0.01) but no change in protein intake over time in both the larger and smaller, longitudinal subsample. The percent of energy, carbohydrate, protein, and fat purchased increased in the larger and longitudinal samples (P <= 0.02) and there was an increase in refined carbohydrate and processed, fatty-meat consumption over time. The abandonment of manioc gardens was associated with increased dependence on purchased food (P = 0.03) while receipt of the Bolsa Familia was associated with increased protein intake and adequacy (P = 0.02). Conclusions: The dietary changes observed are only in partial agreement with predictions of the nutrition transition literature. The relationship between the economic and diet changes was shaped by the local context which should be considered when implementing CCT programs, like the Bolsa Familia. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 23:458-469, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Chemoselective screening for the reduction of a chiral functionalised (+/-)-2-(phenylthio)cyclohexanone by whole cells of Brazilian micro-organisms

The use of whole cells of micro-organisms to bring about the biotransformation of an organic compound offers a number of advantages, but problems caused by enzymatic Promiscuity may be encountered upon With Substrates hearing more than one functional group. A one-pot screening method, in which whole fungal cells were incubated with a Mixture of 4-rnethylcyclohexanone I and phenyl methyl Sulfide 2, has been employed to determine the chemoselectivity of various biocatalysts. The hyphomycetes, Aspergillus terreus CCT 3320 and A. terreus URM 3571, catalysed the oxidation of 2 accompanied by the reduction of I to 4-methylcyclohexanol 1a and, for strain A. terreus CCT 3320, the Baeyer-Villiger oxidation of 1. The Basidomycetes, Trametes versicolor CCB 202, Pycnoporus sanguineus CCB 501 and Trichaptum byssogenum CCB 203, catalysed the oxidation of 2 and the reduction 1, but no Baeyer-Villiger reaction products were detected. In contrast. Trametes rigida CCB 285 catalysed the biotransformation of 1 to 1a, exclusively, in the absence of any detectable Sulfide oxidation reactions. The chemoselective reduction Of (+/-)-2-(phenylthio)cyclohexanone 3 by T. rigida CCB 285 afforded exclusively the (+)-cis-(1R,2S) and (+)-trans-(1S,2S) diastereoisomers of 2-(phenylthio)cyclohexan-1-ol 3a in moderate yields (13% and 27%, respectively) and high enantiomeric excesses (>98%). Chemoselective screening for the reduction of a ketone and/or the oxidation Of a Sulfide group in one pot by whole cells of micro-organisms represents an attractive technique with applications in the development of synthesis of complex molecule hearing different functional groups. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Education and Earnings for Poverty Reduction : Short-Term Evidence of Pro-Poor Growth from the Mexican Oportunidades Program

Education, as an indispensable component of human capital, has been acknowledged to play a critical role in economic growth, which is theoretically elaborated by human capital theory and empirically confirmed by evidence from different parts of the world. The educational impact on growth is especially valuable and meaningful when it is for the sake of poverty reduction and pro-poorness of growth. The paper re-explores the precious link between human capital development and poverty reduction by investigating the causal effect of education accumulation on earnings enhancement for anti-poverty and pro-poor growth. The analysis takes the evidence from a well-known conditional cash transfer (CCT) program — Oportunidades in Mexico. Aiming at alleviating poverty and promoting a better future by investing in human capital for children and youth in poverty, this CCT program has been recognized producing significant outcomes. The study investigates a short-term impact of education on earnings of the economically disadvantaged youth, taking the data of both the program’s treated and untreated youth from urban areas in Mexico from 2002 to 2004. Two econometric techniques, i.e. difference-in-differences and difference-in-differences propensity score matching approach are applied for estimation. The empirical analysis first identifies that youth who under the program’s schooling intervention possess an advantage in educational attainment over their non-intervention peers; with this identification of education discrepancy as a prerequisite, further results then present that earnings of the education advantaged youth increase at a higher rate about 20 percent than earnings of their education disadvantaged peers over the two years. This result indicates a confirmation that education accumulation for the economically disadvantaged young has a positive impact on their earnings enhancement and thus inferring a contribution to poverty reduction and pro-poorness of growth.

Rethinking schools and community : the knowledge producing school

Schools appear in some accounts of community informatics as part of community, one of a number of organisations that need to be taken into account, perhaps on the basis of them being useful physical or human resources around which community informatics might be based. For their part, schools, at least in Australia, have been an important, early element in the broad take-up of computing and communication technologies (CCTs) by the community. Apart from the possibility of using school resources to support community access out of school time and based on what is published in both fields, schools and work in community informatics have tended to operate independently of one another. There are, nonetheless, interesting parallels in these two broad areas of activity which promote the use of CCTs. This chapter outlines a new research agenda in which schools produce knowledge for local community and in doing so develop new and productive community partnerships. The development provides interesting opportunities for the transformation of regions via this approach to community informatics. The background to this project is based in the long history of using CCTs in schools. The chapter will argue that the way in which schools understand CCTs is crucial to shaping what is possible to be done with CCTs in schools. Shifting the emphasis from information to relationships opens up alternatives that provide opportunities for significant, new relationships with community.

Effect of composition and austenite deformation on the transformation characteristics of low-carbon and ultralow-carbon microalloyed steels

Deformation dilatometry has been used to simulate controlled hot rolling followed by controlled cooling of a group of low- and ultralow-carbon microalloyed steels containing additions of boron and/or molybdenum to enhance hardenability. Each alloy was subjected to simulated recrystallization and nonrecrystallization rolling schedules, followed by controlled cooling at rates from 0.1 °C/s to about 100 °C/s, and the corresponding continuous-cooling-transformation (CCT) diagrams were constructed. The resultant microstructures ranged from polygonal ferrite (PF) for combinations of slow cooling rates and low alloying element contents, through to bainitic ferrite accompanied by martensite for fast cooling rates and high concentrations of alloying elements. Combined additions of boron and molybdenum were found to be most effective in increasing steel hardenability, while boron was significantly more effective than molybdenum as a single addition, especially at the ultralow carbon content. Severe plastic deformation of the parent austenite (>0.45) markedly enhanced PF formation in those steels in which this microstructural constituent was formed, indicating a significant effective decrease in their hardenability. In contrast, in those steels in which only nonequilibrium ferrite microstructures were formed, the decreases in hardenability were relatively small, reflecting the lack of sensitivity to strain in the austenite of those microstructural constituents forming in the absence of PF.

Motivational interviewing and cognitive behaviour therapy in the treatment of adolescent overweight and obesity : study design and methodology

Background

Despite the high prevalence and negative physical and psychosocial consequences of overweight and obesity in adolescents, very little research has evaluated treatment in this population. Consequently, clinicians working with overweight and obese adolescents have little empirical research on which to base their practise. Cognitive behavioural therapy has demonstrated efficacy in promoting behaviour change in many treatment resistant disorders. Motivational interviewing has been used to increase motivation for change and improve treatment outcomes. In this paper we describe the rationale and design of a randomised controlled trial testing the efficacy of motivational interviewing and cognitive behaviour therapy in the treatment of overweight and obese adolescents.
Methods

Participants took part in a motivational interview or a standard semi-structured assessment interview and were then randomly allocated to a cognitive behavioural intervention or a wait-list control condition. The cognitive behavioural intervention, the CHOOSE HEALTH Program, consisted of 13 individual treatment sessions (12 face-to-face, 1 phone call) followed by 9 maintenance sessions (7 phone calls, 2 face-to-face). Assessments were conducted prior to participation, after the treatment phase and after the maintenance phase of intervention. Improvement in body composition was the primary outcome; secondary outcomes included improved cardiovascular fitness, eating and physical activity habits, family and psychosocial functioning.
Conclusion

Despite the demonstrated effectiveness of motivational interviewing and cognitive behavioural therapy in the long-term management of many treatment resistant disorders, these approaches have been under-utilised in adolescent overweight and obesity treatment. This study provides baseline data and a thorough review of the study design and treatment approach to allow for the assessment of the efficacy of motivational interviewing and cognitive behavioural therapy in the treatment of adolescent overweight and obesity. Data obtained in this study will also provide much needed information about the behavioural and psychosocial factors associated with adolescent overweight and obesity.

The effect of simulated thermomechanical processing on the transformation behavior and microstructure of a low-carbon Mo-Nb linepipe steel

The present work investigates the transformation behavior of a low-carbon Mo-Nb linepipe steel and the corresponding transformation product microstructures using deformation dilatometry. The continuous cooling transformation (CCT) diagrams have been constructed for both the fully recrystallized austenite and that deformed in uniaxial compression at 1148 K (875 °C) to a strain of 0.5 for cooling rates ranging from 0.1 to about 100 K/s. The obtained microstructures have been studied in detail using electron backscattered diffraction complemented by transmission electron microscopy. Heavy deformation of the parent austenite has caused a significant expansion of the polygonal ferrite transformation field in the CCT diagram, as well as a shift in the non-equilibrium ferrite transformation fields toward higher cooling rates. Furthermore, the austenite deformation has resulted in a pronounced refinement in both the effective grain (sheaf/packet) size and substructure unit size of the non-equilibrium ferrite microstructures. The optimum microstructure expected to display an excellent balance between strength and toughness is a mix of quasi-polygonal ferrite and granular bainite (often termed “acicular ferrite”) produced from the heavily deformed austenite within a processing window covering the cooling rates from about 10 to about 100 K/s.

Agent-based smart grid protection and security

The vision of a smart grid is to provide a modern, resilient, and secure electric power grid as it boasts up with a highly reliable and efficient environment through effective use of its information and communication technology (ICT). Generally, the control and operation of a smart grid which integrate the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as, wind power, solar power, energy storage, etc., largely depends on a complex network of computers, softwares, and communication infrastructure superimposed on its physical grid architecture facilitated with the deployment of intelligent decision support system applications. In recent years, multi-agent system (MAS) has been well investigated for wide area power system applications and specially gained a significant attention in smart grid protection and security due to its distributed characteristics. In this chapter, a MAS framework for smart grid protection relay coordination is proposed, which consists of a number of intelligent autonomous agents each of which are embedded with the protection relays. Each agent has its own thread of control that provides it with a capability to operate the circuit breakers (CBs) using the critical clearing time (CCT) information as well as communicate with each other through high speed communication network. Besides physical failure, since smart grid highly depends on communication infrastructure, it is vulnerable to several cyber threats on its information and communication channel. An attacker who has knowledge about a certain smart grid communication framework can easily compromise its appliances and components by corrupting the information which may destabilize a system results a widespread blackout. To mitigate such risk of cyber attacks, a few innovative counter measuring techniques are discussed in this chapter.

A multi-agent approach for enhancing transient stability of smart grids

Transient stability, an important issue to avoid the loss of synchronous operation in power systems, can be achieved through proper coordination and operation of protective devices within the critical clearing time (CCT). In view of this, the development of an intelligent decision support system is useful for providing better protection relay coordination. This paper presents an intelligent distributed agent-based scheme to enhance the transient stability of smart grids in light of CCT where a multi-agent framework (MAF) is developed and the agents are represented in such a way that they are equipped with protection relays (PRs). In addition to this, an algorithm is developed which assists the agents to make autonomous decision for controlling circuit breakers (CBs) independently. The proposed agents are responsible for the coordination of protection devices which is done through the precise detection and isolation of faults within the CCT. The agents also perform the duty of reclosing CBs after the clearance of faults. The performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated on a standard IEEE 39-bus test system by considering short-circuit faults at different locations under various load conditions. To further validate the suitability of the proposed scheme a benchmark 16-machine 68-bus power system is also considered. Simulation results show that MAF exhibits full flexibility to adapt the changes in system configurations and increase the stability margin for both test systems.