Assessing agglomeration economies in the Yangzi River Delta, China : a bayesian spatial econometric approach

This paper estimates the elasticity of labor productivity with respect to employment density, a widely used measure of the agglomeration effect, in the Yangtze River Delta, China. A spatial Durbin model is presented that makes explicit the influences of spatial dependence and endogeneity bias in a very simple way. Results of Bayesian estimation using the data of the year 2009 indicate that the productivity is influenced by factors correlated with density rather than density itself and that spatial spillovers of these factors of agglomeration play a significant role. They are consistent with the findings of Ke (2010) and Artis, et al. (2011) that suggest the importance of taking into account spatial dependence and hitherto omitted variables.

Agglomeration and firm-level productivity : a Bayesian spatial approach

This paper estimates the impact of industrial agglomeration on firm-level productivity in Chinese manufacturing sectors. To account for spatial autocorrelation across regions, we formulate a hierarchical spatial model at the firm level and develop a Bayesian estimation algorithm. A Bayesian instrumental-variables approach is used to address endogeneity bias of agglomeration. Robust to these potential biases, we find that agglomeration of the same industry (i.e. localization) has a productivity-boosting effect, but agglomeration of urban population (i.e. urbanization) has no such effects. Additionally, the localization effects increase with educational levels of employees and the share of intermediate inputs in gross output. These results may suggest that agglomeration externalities occur through knowledge spillovers and input sharing among firms producing similar manufactures.

Simulation analysis of the EU ELV/RoHS directives based on an applied general equilibrium model with Melitz-type trade specification

This paper explores the potential usefulness of an AGE model with the Melitz-type trade specification to assess economic effects of technical regulations, taking the case of the EU ELV/RoHS directives as an example. Simulation experiments reveal that: (1) raising the fixed exporting cost to make sales in the EU market brings results that exports of the targeted commodities (motor vehicles and parts for ELV and electronic equipment for RoHS) to the EU from outside regions/countries expand while the domestic trade in the EU shrinks when the importer's preference for variety (PfV) is not strong; (2) if the PfV is not strong, policy changes that may bring reduction in the number of firms enable survived producers with high productivity to expand production to be large-scale mass producers fully enjoying the fruit of economies of scale; and (3) When the strength of the importer's PfV is changed from zero to unity, there is the value that totally changes simulation results and their interpretations.

Análisis de elementos viga-columna en régimen no lineal con deformación por cortante

El hormigón estructural sigue siendo sin duda uno de los materiales más utilizados en construcción debido a su resistencia, rigidez y flexibilidad para diseñar estructuras. El cálculo de estructuras de hormigón, utilizando vigas y vigas-columna, es complejo debido a los fenómenos de acoplamiento entre esfuerzos y al comportamiento no lineal del material. Los modelos más empleados para su análisis son el de Bernoulli-Euler y el de Timoshenko, indicándose en la literatura la conveniencia de usar el segundo cuando la relación canto/luz no es pequeña o los elementos están fuertemente armados. El objetivo fundamental de esta tesis es el análisis de elementos viga y viga-columna en régimen no lineal con deformación por cortante, aplicando el concepto de Pieza Lineal Equivalente (PLE). Concepto éste que consiste básicamente en resolver el problema de una pieza en régimen no lineal, transformándolo en uno lineal equivalente, de modo que ambas piezas tengan la misma deformada y los mismos esfuerzos. Para ello, se hizo en primer lugar un estudio comparado de: las distintas propuestas que aplican la deformación por cortante, de los distintos modelos constitutivos y seccionales del hormigón estructural y de los métodos de cálculo no lineal aplicando el método de elementos finitos (MEF). Teniendo en cuenta que la resolución del problema no lineal se basa en la resolución de sucesivos problemas lineales empleando un proceso de homotopía, los problemas lineales de la viga y viga-columna de Timoshenko, se resuelven mediante MEF, utilizando soluciones nodalmente exactas (SNE) y acción repartida equivalente de cualquier orden. Se obtiene así, con muy pocos elementos finitos, una excelente aproximación de la solución, no sólo en los nodos sino en el interior de los elementos. Se introduce el concepto PLE para el análisis de una barra, de material no lineal, sometida a acciones axiales, y se extiende el mismo para el análisis no lineal de vigas y vigas-columna con deformación por cortante. Cabe señalar que para estos últimos, la solución de una pieza en régimen no lineal es igual a la de una en régimen lineal, cuyas rigideces son constantes a trozos, y donde además hay que añadir momentos y cargas puntuales ficticias en los nodos, así como, un momento distribuido ficticio en toda la pieza. Se han desarrollado dos métodos para el análisis: uno para problemas isostáticos y otro general, aplicable tanto a problemas isostáticos como hiperestáticos. El primero determina de entrada la PLE, realizándose a continuación el cálculo por MEF-SNE de dicha pieza, que ahora está en régimen lineal. El general utiliza una homotopía que transforma de manera iterativa, unas leyes constitutivas lineales en las leyes no lineales del material. Cuando se combina con el MEF, la pieza lineal equivalente y la solución del problema original quedan determinadas al final de todo el proceso. Si bien el método general es un procedimiento próximo al de Newton- Raphson, presenta sobre éste la ventaja de permitir visualizar las deformaciones de la pieza en régimen no lineal, de manera tanto cualitativa como cuantitativa, ya que es posible observar en cada paso del proceso la modificación de rigideces (a flexión y cortante) y asimismo la evolución de las acciones ficticias. Por otra parte, los resultados obtenidos comparados con los publicados en la literatura, indican que el concepto PLE ofrece una forma directa y eficiente para analizar con muy buena precisión los problemas asociados a vigas y vigas-columna en las que por su tipología los efectos del cortante no pueden ser despreciados. ABSTRACT The structural concrete clearly remains the most used material in construction due to its strength, rigidity and structural design flexibility. The calculation of concrete structures using beams and beam-column is complex as consequence of the coupling phenomena between stresses and of its nonlinear behaviour. The models most commonly used for analysis are the Bernoulli-Euler and Timoshenko. The second model is strongly recommended when the relationship thickness/span is not small or in case the elements are heavily reinforced. The main objective of this thesis is to analyse the beam and beam-column elements with shear deformation in nonlinear regime, applying the concept of Equivalent Linear Structural Element (ELSE). This concept is basically to solve the problem of a structural element in nonlinear regime, transforming it into an equivalent linear structural element, so that both elements have the same deformations and the same stresses. Firstly, a comparative study of the various proposals of applying shear deformation, of various constitutive and sectional models of structural concrete, and of the nonlinear calculation methods (using finite element methods) was carried out. Considering that the resolution of nonlinear problem is based on solving the successive linear problem, using homotopy process, the linear problem of Timoshenko beam and beam-columns is resolved by FEM, using the exact nodal solutions (ENS) and equivalent distributed load of any order. Thus, the accurate solution approximation can be obtained with very few finite elements for not only nodes, but also for inside of elements. The concept ELSE is introduced to analyse a bar of nonlinear material, subjected to axial forces. The same bar is then used for other nonlinear beam and beam-column analysis with shear deformation. It is noted that, for the last analyses, the solution of a structural element in nonlinear regime is equal to that of linear regime, in which the piecewise-stiffness is constant, the moments and fictitious point loads need to be added at nodes of each element, as well as the fictitious distributed moment on element. Two methods have been developed for analysis: one for isostatic problem and other more general, applicable for both isostatic and hiperstatic problem. The first method determines the ELSE, and then the calculation of this piece is performed by FEM-ENS that now is in linear regime. The general method uses the homotopy that transforms iteratively linear constitutive laws into nonlinear laws of material. When combined with FEM, the ELSE and the solution of the original problem are determined at the end of the whole process. The general method is well known as a procedure closed to Newton-Raphson procedure but presents an advantage that allows displaying deformations of the piece in nonlinear regime, in both qualitative and quantitative way. Since it is possible to observe the modification of stiffness (flexural and shear) in each step of process and also the evolution of the fictitious actions. Moreover, the results compared with those published in the literature indicate that the ELSE concept offers a direct and efficient way to analyze with very good accuracy the problems associated with beams and beams columns in which, by typology, the effects of shear cannot be neglected.

Factor Markets in Applied Equilibrium Models: The current state and planned extensions towards an improved presentation of factor markets in agriculture. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 23, February 2012

This paper describes how factor markets are presented in applied equilibrium models and how we plan to improve and to extend the presentation of factor markets in two specific models: MAGNET and ESIM. We do not argue that partial equilibrium models should become more ‘general’ in the sense of integrating all factor markets, but that the shift of agricultural income policies to decoupled payments linked to land in the EU necessitates the inclusion of land markets in policy-relevant modelling tools. To this end, this paper outlines options to integrate land markets in partial equilibrium models. A special feature of general equilibrium models is the inclusion of fully integrated factor markets in the system of equations to describe the functionality of a single country or a group of countries. Thus, this paper focuses on the implementation and improved representation of agricultural factor markets (land, labour and capital) in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. This paper outlines the presentation of factor markets with an overview of currently applied CGE models and describes selected options to improve and extend the current factor market modelling in the MAGNET model, which also uses the results and empirical findings of our partners in this FP project.

The association of depression and perceived stress with beta cell function between African and Haitian Americans with and without type 2 diabetes

Background: Diabetes and diabetes-related complications are major causes of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Depressive symptoms and perceived stress have been identified as possible risk factors for beta cell dysfunction and diabetes. The purpose of this study was to assess associations between depression symptoms and perceived stress with beta cell function between African and Haitian Americans with and without type 2 diabetes. Participants and Methods: Informed consent and data were available for 462 participants (231 African Americans and 231 Haitian Americans) for this cross-sectional study. A demographic questionnaire developed by the Primary Investigator was used to collect information regarding age, gender, smoking, and ethnicity. Diabetes status was determined by self-report and confirmed by fasting blood glucose. Anthropometrics (weight, and height and waist circumference) and vital signs (blood pressure) were taken. Blood samples were drawn after 8 10 hours over-night fasting to measure lipid panel, fasting plasma glucose and serum insulin concentrations. The homeostatic model assessment, version 2 (HOMA2) computer model was used to calculate beta cell function. Depression was assessed using the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) and stress levels were assessed using the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS). Results: Moderate to severe depressive symptoms were more likely for persons with diabetes (p = 0.030). There were no differences in perceived stress between ethnicity and diabetes status (p = 0.283). General linear models for participants with and without type 2 diabetes using beta cell function as the dependent variable showed no association with depressive symptoms and perceived stress; however, Haitian Americans had significantly lower beta cell function than African Americans both with and without diabetes and adjusting for age, gender, waist circumference and smoking. Further research is needed to compare these risk factors in other race/ethnic groups.

Investigating the mesh dependency and upscaling of 3D grain-based models for the simulation of brittle fracture processes in low-porosity crystalline rock

The application of 3D grain-based modelling techniques is investigated in both small and large scale 3DEC models, in order to simulate brittle fracture processes in low-porosity crystalline rock. Mesh dependency in 3D grain-based models (GBMs) is examined through a number of cases to compare Voronoi and tetrahedral grain assemblages. Various methods are used in the generation of tessellations, each with a number of issues and advantages. A number of comparative UCS test simulations capture the distinct failure mechanisms, strength profiles, and progressive damage development using various Voronoi and tetrahedral GBMs. Relative calibration requirements are outlined to generate similar macro-strength and damage profiles for all the models. The results confirmed a number of inherent model behaviors that arise due to mesh dependency. In Voronoi models, inherent tensile failure mechanisms are produced by internal wedging and rotation of Voronoi grains. This results in a combined dependence on frictional and cohesive strength. In tetrahedral models, increased kinematic freedom of grains and an abundance of straight, connected failure pathways causes a preference for shear failure. This results in an inability to develop significant normal stresses causing cohesional strength dependence. In general, Voronoi models require high relative contact tensile strength values, with lower contact stiffness and contact cohesional strength compared to tetrahedral tessellations. Upscaling of 3D GBMs is investigated for both Voronoi and tetrahedral tessellations using a case study from the AECL’s Mine-by-Experiment at the Underground Research Laboratory. An upscaled tetrahedral model was able to reasonably simulate damage development in the roof forming a notch geometry by adjusting the cohesive strength. An upscaled Voronoi model underestimated the damage development in the roof and floor, and overestimated the damage in the side-walls. This was attributed to the discretization resolution limitations.

Exploiting spectrally resolved satellite observations to assess the performance of climate models

The accurate representation of the Earth Radiation Budget by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is a fundamental requirement to provide reliable historical and future climate simulations. In this study, we found reasonable agreement between the integrated energy fluxes at the top of the atmosphere simulated by 34 state-of-the-art climate models and the observations provided by the Cloud and Earth Radiant Energy System (CERES) mission on a global scale, but large regional biases have been detected throughout the globe. Furthermore, we highlighted that a good agreement between simulated and observed integrated Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) fluxes may be obtained from the cancellation of opposite-in-sign systematic errors, localized in different spectral ranges. To avoid this and to understand the causes of these biases, we compared the observed Earth emission spectra, measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) in the period 2008-2016, with the synthetic radiances computed on the basis of the atmospheric fields provided by the EC-Earth GCM. To this purpose, the fast σ-IASI radiative transfer model was used, after its validation and implementation in EC-Earth. From the comparison between observed and simulated spectral radiances, a positive temperature bias in the stratosphere and a negative temperature bias in the middle troposphere, as well as a dry bias of the water vapor concentration in the upper troposphere, have been identified in the EC-Earth climate model. The analysis has been performed in clear-sky conditions, but the feasibility of its extension in the presence of clouds, whose impact on the radiation represents the greatest source of uncertainty in climate models, has also been proven. Finally, the analysis of simulated and observed OLR trends indicated good agreement and provided detailed information on the spectral fingerprints of the evolution of the main climate variables.

Characterization of ENSO changes under idealised radiative forcing in an intermediate complexity general circulation model

Intermediate-complexity general circulation models are a fundamental tool to investigate the role of internal and external variability within the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean. The model used in this thesis is an intermediate complexity atmospheric general circulation model (SPEEDY) coupled to a state-of-the-art modelling framework for the ocean (NEMO). We assess to which extent the model allows a realistic simulation of the most prominent natural mode of variability at interannual time scales: El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To a good approximation, the model represents the ENSO-induced Sea Surface Temperature (SST) pattern in the equatorial Pacific, despite a cold tongue-like bias. The model underestimates (overestimates) the typical ENSO spatial variability during the winter (summer) seasons. The mid-latitude response to ENSO reveals that the typical poleward stationary Rossby wave train is reasonably well represented. The spectral decomposition of ENSO features a spectrum that lacks periodicity at high frequencies and is overly periodic at interannual timescales. We then implemented an idealised transient mean state change in the SPEEDY model. A warmer climate is simulated by an alteration of the parametrized radiative fluxes that corresponds to doubled carbon dioxide absorptivity. Results indicate that the globally averaged surface air temperature increases of 0.76 K. Regionally, the induced signal on the SST field features a significant warming over the central-western Pacific and an El-Niño-like warming in the subtropics. In general, the model features a weakening of the tropical Walker circulation and a poleward expansion of the local Hadley cell. This response is also detected in a poleward rearrangement of the tropical convective rainfall pattern. The model setting that has been here implemented provides a valid theoretical support for future studies on climate sensitivity and forced modes of variability under mean state changes.

Estado nutricional e composição corporal de crianças do ensino fundamental do municipio de Vinhedo - SP

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Inequalities in mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer in Barcelona, Spain and Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1995-2003

Background: Large inequalities of mortality by most cancers in general, by mouth and pharynx cancer in particular, have been associated to behaviour and geopolitical factors. The assessment of socioeconomic covariates of cancer mortality may be relevant to a full comprehension of distal determinants of the disease, and to appraise opportune interventions. The objective of this study was to compare socioeconomic inequalities in male mortality by oral and pharyngeal cancer in two major cities of Europe and South America. Methods: The official system of information on mortality provided data on deaths in each city; general censuses informed population data. Age-adjusted death rates by oral and pharyngeal cancer for men were independently assessed for neighbourhoods of Barcelona, Spain, and Sao Paulo, Brazil, from 1995 to 2003. Uniform methodological criteria instructed the comparative assessment of magnitude, trends and spatial distribution of mortality. General linear models assessed ecologic correlations between death rates and socioeconomic indices (unemployment, schooling levels and the human development index) at the inner-city area level. Results obtained for each city were subsequently compared. Results: Mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer ranked higher in Barcelona (9.45 yearly deaths per 100,000 male inhabitants) than in Spain and Europe as a whole; rates were on decrease. Sao Paulo presented a poorer profile, with higher magnitude (11.86) and stationary trend. The appraisal of ecologic correlations indicated an unequal and inequitably distributed burden of disease in both cities, with poorer areas tending to present higher mortality. Barcelona had a larger gradient of mortality than Sao Paulo, indicating a higher inequality of cancer deaths across its neighbourhoods. Conclusion: The quantitative monitoring of inequalities in health may contribute to the formulation of redistributive policies aimed at the concurrent promotion of wellbeing and social justice. The assessment of groups experiencing a higher burden of disease can instruct health services to provide additional resources for expanding preventive actions and facilities aimed at early diagnosis, standardized treatments and rehabilitation.

Eddy Formation in the Tropical Atlantic Induced by Abrupt Changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation

The variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the upper tropical Atlantic basin is investigated using a reduced-gravity model in a simplified domain. Four sets of idealized numerical experiments are performed: (i) switch-on of the MOC until a fixed value when a constant northward flow is applied along the western boundary; (ii) MOC with a variable flow; (iii) MOC in a quasi-steady flow; and (iv) shutdown of the MOC in the Northern Hemisphere. Results from experiments (i) show that eddies are generated at the equatorial region by shear instability and detached northward; eddies are responsible for an enhancement of the mean flow and the variability of the MOC. Results from experiments (ii) show a transitional behavior of the MOC related to the eddy generation in interannual-decadal time scales as the Reynolds number varies due to the variations in the MOC. In experiments (iii), a critical Reynolds number Re(c) around 30 is found, above which eddies are generated. Experiments (iv) demonstrate that even after the collapse of MOC in the Northern Hemisphere, eddies can still be generated and carry energy across the equator into the Northern Hemisphere; these eddies act to attenuate the impact of the MOC shutdown on short time scales. The results described here may be particularly pertinent to ocean general circulation models in which the Reynolds number lies close to the bifurcation point separating the laminar and turbulent regimes.

Friere`s Dialogic Concept Enables Family Health Program Teams to Incorporate Health Promotion

Objective The study analyzes the possibility of incorporating health promotion measures into the work processes of Family Health Program teams at a primary health care clinic in Brazil. Design and Sample We used the participatory research concept developed in 1968 by Freire. The study sample comprised the end-users of the health care system, together with 3 multidisciplinary teams. A total of 77 health care users and 55 health professionals participated in the study. Measures Culture circles composed of health care professionals, and users from different areas investigated generative topics, encoded/decoded topics, and engaged in critical probing for clarification. Topics affecting quality of life and health were heuristically evaluated. Results Although most topics were related to changing the focus of health care facilities, some were related to subsidizing community-based interventions, improving environmental strategies, individual skills, and public policies. Incorporating the novel health promotion measures and creating an expanded full-treatment clinic are important steps toward that goal. Conclusions Topics that can stimulate dialogue among the members of the culture circles include creating an environment of closer cultural contact, with repercussions for work processes, family health models, and general health models, as well as the inclusion of social aspects in the decision-making processes related to health issues that affect the living conditions of the population.

Population subdivision in marine environments: the contributions of biogeography, geographic distance, and discontinuous habitat to genetic differentiation in a blennioid

The relative importance of factors that may promote genetic differentiation in marine organisms is largely unknown. Here, contributions to population structure from biogeography, habitat distribution, and isolation by distance were investigated in Axoclinus nigricaudus, a small subtidal rock reef fish, throughout its range in the Gulf of California. A 408 basepair fragment of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced from 105 individuals. Variation was significantly partitioned between many pairs of populations. Phylogenetic analyses, hierarchical analyses of variance, and general linear models substantiated a major break between two putative biogeographic regions. This genetic discontinuity coincides with an abrupt change in ecological characteristics (including temperature and salinity) but does not coincide with known oceanographic circulation patterns. Geographic distance and the nature of habitat separating populations (continuous habitat along a shoreline, discontinuous habitat along a shoreline, and open water) also contributed to population structure in general linear model analyses. To verify that local populations are genetically stable over time, one population was resampled on four occasions over eighteen months; it showed no evidence of a temporal component to diversity. These results indicate that having a planktonic life stage does not preclude geographically partitioned genetic variation over relatively small geographic distances in marine environments. Moreover, levels of genetic differentiation among populations of Axoclinus nigricaudus cannot be explained by a single factor, but are due to the combined influences of a biogeographic boundary, habitat, and geographic distance.

Metabolic changes associated with antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive patients

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate metabolic changes associated with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in HIV-positive patients, and to identify risk factors associated. METHODS: Retrospective study that included 110 HIV-positive patients who where on HAART in the city of Porto Alegre (Southern Brazil) between January 2003 and March 2004. Data on demographic variables, cigarette smoking, diabetes mellitus, cholesterol and triglyceride levels, stage of HIV infection, antiretroviral therapy and HCV coinfection were collected. General linear models procedure for repeated measures was used to test the interaction between HAART and HCV coinfection or protease inhibitor treatment. RESULTS: Total cholesterol, triglycerides, and glucose levels significantly increased after receiving HAART (p<0.001 for all variables), but no interaction with protease inhibitors was seen for total cholesterol, glucose and triglyceride levels (interaction treatment*protease inhibitors p=0.741, p=0.784, and p=0.081, respectively). An association between total cholesterol levels and HCV coinfection was found both at baseline and follow-up (effect of HCV coinfection, p=0.011). Glucose levels were increased by HAART (treatment effect, p=0.036), but the effect was associated to HCV coinfection (treatment*HCV effect, p=0.018). Gender, smoking habit, intravenous drug use and age were not significantly associated with cholesterol, triglyceride and glucose changes. CONCLUSIONS: HCV-infected patients at baseline were significantly less likely to develop hypercholesterolemia. The results provide further evidence of the role of HAART for the development of metabolic disturbances.