Testing solar forcing of pervasive Holocene climate cycles

The temporal and spatial extent of Holocene climate change is an area of considerable uncertainty, with solar forcing recently proposed to be the origin of cycles identified in the North Atlantic region. To address these issues we have developed an annually resolved record of changes in Irish bog tree populations over the last 7468 years which, together with radiocarbon-dated bog and lake-edge populations, extend the dataset back to 9000 yr ago. The Irish trees underpin the internationally accepted radiocarbon calibration curve, used to derive a proxy of solar activity, and allow us to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change. Tree populations and age structures provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in Holocene surface moisture, with a dominant cyclicity of 800 yr, similar to marine cycles in the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. The cycles, however, are not coherent with changes in solar activity (both being on the same absolute timescale), indicating that Holocene North Atlantic climate variability at the millennial and centennial scale is not driven by a linear response to changes in solar activity.

Holocene climate change and past Irish societal response

The extent to which North Atlantic Holocene climatic perturbations influenced past human societies is an area of considerable uncertainty and fierce debate. Ireland is ideally placed to help resolve this issue, being occupied for over 9000 yr and located on the eastern Atlantic seaboard, a region dominated by westerly airflow. Irish bog and lake tree populations provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in surface moisture through the Holocene similar to cycles recorded in the marine realm of the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. To test for human response to these cycles we summed the probabilities of 465 radiocarbon ages obtained from Irish archaeological contexts and observe enhanced archaeological visibility during periods of sustained wet conditions. These results suggest either increasing density of human populations in key, often defensive locations, and/or the development of subsistence strategies to overcome changing conditions, the latter recently proposed as a significant factor in avoiding societal collapse. Regardless, we demonstrate environmental change is a significantly more important factor in influencing human activity in the landscape than has hitherto been acknowledged.

Radiocarbon calibration in the Anglo-Saxon period: AD 495-725

Radiocarbon dating has been rarely used for chronological problems relating to the Anglo-Saxon period. The "flatness" of the calibration curve and the resultant wide range in calendrical dates provide little advantage over traditional archaeological dating in this period. Recent advances in Bayesian methodology have, however, created the possibility of refining and checking the established chronologies, based on typology of artifacts, against 14C dates. The calibration process, within such a confined age range, however, relies heavily on the structural accuracy of the calibration curve. We have therefore re-measured, at decadal intervals, a section of the Irish oak chronology for the period AD 495–725. These measurements have been included in IntCal04.

Stable hydrogen isotope ratios of lignin methoxyl groups as a palaeoclimate proxy

• Stable isotope ratios of organic compounds are valuable tools for determining the geographical origin, identity, authenticity or history of samples from a vast range of sources such as sediments, plants and animals, including humans. • Hydrogen isotope ratios (d2H values) of methoxyl groups in lignin from wood of trees grown in different geographical areas were measured using compound-specificpyrolysis isotope ratio mass spectrometry analysis. • Lignin methoxyl groups were depleted in 2H relative to both meteoric water andwhole wood. A high correlation (r2=0.91) was observed between the d2 H valuesof the methoxyl groups and meteoric water, with a relatively uniform fractionation of –216±19 recorded with respect to meteoric water over a range of d2H values from –110 in northern Norway to + 20‰ in Yemen. Thus, woods from northernlatitudes can be clearly distinguished from those from tropical regions. By contrast, the d2H values of bulk wood were only relatively poorly correlated (r 2 = 0.47) with those of meteoric water. • Measurement of the d 2H values of lignin methoxyl groups is potentially a powerful tool that could be of use not only in the constraint of the geographical origin of lignified material but also in paleoclimate, food authenticity and forensic investigations.

Dendrochronological evidence for a lower water-table on peatland around 3200-3000 BC from subfossil pine in northern Scotland

Tree-ring analysis of subfossil Pinus sylvestris L., from nine new peatland sites located beyond the species’ current northern limit in Scotland, established a regional chronology called WRATH-9. The chronology has been provisionally dated against Irish pine chronologies and provides the first annual resolution picture of Scots pine expansion from c. 3200 bc and subsequent demise from c. 3000 bc. Pine germination and growth is suggested to be associated with a widespread fall in bog water-tables that indicates a regional climatic control. Bog pines progressively declined in number, rather than died out in a single event, reflecting their growth in a marginal habitat, close to a critical ecological threshold. The use of tree-ring sequences from in situ bog pine macrofossils provides a higher resolution insight into past conditions than possible with existing radiocarbon and pollen-based chronologies.

Investigating the Interhemisphere 14C Offset in the 1st Millennium AD and Assessment of Laboratory Bias and Calibration Errors

Past measurements of the radiocarbon interhemispheric offset have been restricted to relatively young samples because of a lack of older dendrochronologically secure Southern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies. The Southern Hemisphere calibration data set SHCal04 earlier than AD 950 utilizes a variable interhemispheric offset derived from measured 2nd millennium AD Southern Hemisphere/Northern Hemisphere sample pairs with the assumption of stable Holocene ocean/ atmosphere interactions. This study extends the range of measured interhemispheric offset values with 20 decadal New Zealand kauri and Irish oak sample pairs from 3 selected time intervals in the 1st millennium AD and is part of a larger program to obtain high-precision Southern Hemisphere 14C data continuously back to 200 BC. We found an average interhemispheric offset of 35 ± 6 yr, which although consistent with previously published 2nd millennium AD measurements, is lower than the offset of 55–58 yr utilized in SHCal04. We concur with McCormac et al. (2008) that the IntCal04 measurement for AD 775 may indeed be slightly too old but also suggest the McCormac results appear excessively young for the interval AD 755–785. In addition, we raise the issue of laboratory bias and calibration errors, and encourage all laboratories to check their consistency with appropriate calibration curves and invest more effort into improving the accuracy of those curves.