A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change

Land use has become a force of global importance, considering that 34% of the Earth’s ice-free surface was covered by croplands or pastures in 2000. The expected increase in global human population together with eminent climate change and associated search for energy sources other than fossil fuels can, through land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC), increase the pressure on nature’s resources, further degrade ecosystem services, and disrupt other planetary systems of key importance to humanity. This thesis presents four modeling studies on the interplay between LUCC, increased production of biofuels and climate change in four selected world regions. In the first study case two new crop types (sugarcane and jatropha) are parameterized in the LPJ for managed Lands dynamic global vegetation model for calculation of their potential productivity. Country-wide spatial variation in the yields of sugarcane and jatropha incurs into substantially different land requirements to meet the biofuel production targets for 2015 in Brazil and India, depending on the location of plantations. Particularly the average land requirements for jatropha in India are considerably higher than previously estimated. These findings indicate that crop zoning is important to avoid excessive LUCC. In the second study case the LandSHIFT model of land-use and land-cover changes is combined with life cycle assessments to investigate the occurrence and extent of biofuel-driven indirect land-use changes (ILUC) in Brazil by 2020. The results show that Brazilian biofuels can indeed cause considerable ILUC, especially by pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests. The carbon debt caused by such ILUC would result in no carbon savings (from using plant-based ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels) before 44 years for sugarcane ethanol and 246 years for soybean biodiesel. The intensification of livestock grazing could avoid such ILUC. We argue that such an intensification of livestock should be supported by the Brazilian biofuel sector, based on the sector’s own interest in minimizing carbon emissions. In the third study there is the development of a new method for crop allocation in LandSHIFT, as influenced by the occurrence and capacity of specific infrastructure units. The method is exemplarily applied in a first assessment of the potential availability of land for biogas production in Germany. The results indicate that Germany has enough land to fulfill virtually all (90 to 98%) its current biogas plant capacity with only cultivated feedstocks. Biogas plants located in South and Southwestern (North and Northeastern) Germany might face more (less) difficulties to fulfill their capacities with cultivated feedstocks, considering that feedstock transport distance to plants is a crucial issue for biogas production. In the fourth study an adapted version of LandSHIFT is used to assess the impacts of contrasting scenarios of climate change and conservation targets on land use in the Brazilian Amazon. Model results show that severe climate change in some regions by 2050 can shift the deforestation frontier to areas that would experience low levels of human intervention under mild climate change (such as the western Amazon forests or parts of the Cerrado savannas). Halting deforestation of the Amazon and of the Brazilian Cerrado would require either a reduction in the production of meat or an intensification of livestock grazing in the region. Such findings point out the need for an integrated/multicisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. The overall conclusions of this thesis are that (i) biofuels must be analyzed and planned carefully in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions; (ii) climate change can have considerable impacts on the location and extent of LUCC; and (iii) intensification of grazing livestock represents a promising venue for minimizing the impacts of future land-use and land-cover changes in Brazil.

The Food Crisis: Implications for Labor

Food prices have gone up to prohibitive levels for many of the world’s poor. The vast majority of those who are hungry in the world today are working in agriculture, either as small landholders or as waged agricultural workers. The majority of the food producers have not benefited from rising prices. Apparently, the bargaining power of many producers, just as that of the end consumers, has been weakened vis-à-vis the buyers and retailers of agricultural produce. This powerlessness is also in the face of governments that fail to provide an appropriate infrastructure for smallholders and social protection. The first part of the book provides an introduction to the immediate and structural causes of the food crisis. The second part contains contributions that not only highlight the plight of rural labour but also develop tools for measuring the decent work deficit. The last part emphasizes income security as a major precondition for food security. It looks at the experiences of Brazil and India with the extension of social protection for the poor.

Reforming Cooperative Credit Structure in India for Financial Inclusion

In the drive for financial inclusion in India, cooperative banks assume prime importance as they are much more accessible to the rural poor than commercial banks. While more accessible, cooperative banks' financial health is rather poor and, therefore, might not be able to serve the needy in a sustained manner. A committee led by Prof. Vaidyanathan has outlined a revival package for cooperatives. Besides suggesting an infusion of funds, it called for the adherence to certain stringent norms to ensure the financial viability. The recommendations provided in the committee’s report are under various stages of implementation in India. The book examines the progress of this reform drive in Bihar, a state in Eastern India. It discusses the background for appointing the committee and its recommendations and also presents the findings of a field study conducted in this regard. The findings inform further policy suggestions which are of general interest to the drive for financial inclusion also in other countries.

Ἐμπόρια

Die Arbeit mit dem Titel "Ἐμπόρια- Eine wirtschafts- und kulturhistorische Studie zu den Handelsbeziehungen zwischen dem Imperium Romanum und Indien (1. - 3. Jh. n. Chr.)" ist in die antike Wirtschaftsgeschichte einzuordnen, beinhaltet aber auch kulturhistorische Aspekte. Der Fokus der untersuchten Austauschbeziehungen liegt auf der maritimen Route zwischen den Häfen des Roten Meeres und der Westküste Indiens. Vom ägyptischen Alexandria aus, wo die Waren aus dem gesamten Imperium Romanum verhandelt wurden, verschifften die Kaufleute ihre Exportprodukte über den Nil in das mittelägyptische Koptos. Von dort aus transportierten Lasttiere (Esel und Kamele) die Waren auf verschiedenen Routen an die Häfen des Roten Meeres (Myos Hormos und Berenike). Mit dem Monsun im Juli stachen die Schiffe in See und fuhren über offenes Gewässer zu den Handelsplätzen Indiens. Die Bedeutendsten von ihnen befanden sich an der Indusmündung, an der Mündung des Narmada und an der Malabarküste. Alternativ befuhren die Kaufleute die Route entlang der arabischen Küste, nach Indien. Wie die Europäer der neuzeitlichen europäischen Expansion, waren die Römer vor allem an Rohstoffen interessiert: Verschiedene Gewürze Asiens, Perlen und Edelsteine, sowie Baumwoll- und Seidenstoffe. Im Gegenzug brachten die Kaufleute aus dem Westen Rohstoffe und Fertigwaren auf den Subkontinent, vor allem: Glaswaren, bunte Kleidung und Stoffe, Metalle, Edelsteine, Pigmente und römische Münzen. In dieser Arbeit wird das Zahlenmaterial zum römischen Indienhandel, in Form Quantitativer Studien, nach Vorbild R. Duncan-Jones (The Economy of the Roman Empire. Quantitative Studies, Cambridge 1974), gesammelt und ausgewertet. Dieses Zahlenmaterial ermöglicht eine Einschätzung der ökonomischen Größenordnung des antiken Indienhandels. Im Anschluss daran werden die Handelswaren aus Indien, unter dem Aspekt des römischen Luxusdiskurses, untersucht. Dazu wurden die überlieferten Senatssitzungen, die sich mit dem Thema luxuria beschäftigen, thematisiert. Abschließend werden die indischen Handelsplätze anhand des Port of Trade Modells, wie es Karl Polanyi entwickelte, ausgewertet. Die dazu verwendeten Merkmale orientieren sich an Astrid Möllers Untersuchung zum ägyptischen Handelsplatz Naukratis.

'Beskrivningar av hinduismen' : En kritisk litteraturstudie om hinduismen i tre svenska läroböcker

Undersökningen går ut på att granska tre läroböcker för årskurs 1 i gymnasiet i religion. Det som granskas i dessa är böckernas texter om hinduism. Hinduismen är en Indisk religion som inte är så vanligt förekommande i Sverige, och Indien har under 50 år varit koloniserat av Storbritannien. För att granska texterna om hinduismen kommer utgår jag från ett postkolonialt perspektiv. Det postkoloniala perspektivet finns inom många vetenskaper, och granskar koloniserade länder och olika aspekter av kulturen utifrån det faktum att landet har varit koloniserat, med ett fokus på kolonialmaktens påverkan. Utifrån fyra definierade punkter granskar jag de tre läromedlen och analyserar texterna om hinduism, och kommer fram till att ett postkolonialt perspektiv belyser flera problematiska formuleringar och beskrivningar. Undersökningen om helhet, även om den enbart granskar tre läroböcker av alla de som finns på marknaden, visar att en granskning av hur hinduismen presenteras i läroböcker för gymnasiet kan vara relevant och hjälpa till med att ge eleverna en mer nyanserad bild av hinduismen.

Medical students’ knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions on contraceptive use and counselling : a cross-sectional survey in Maharashtra, India

Objectives. This study aimed to investigate the knowledge, attitudes and perceptionstowards contraceptive use and counselling among medical students in Maharashtra, India. Setting. Considerable global maternal mortality and morbidity could be avoided through theuse of effective contraception. In India, contraception services are frequently unavailable or there are obstacles to obtaining modern, reversible contraceptives. Participants. A cross-sectional descriptive study using a self-administered questionnaire was conducted among 1996 medical students in their fifth year of study at 27 medical colleges in the state of Maharashtra, India. Descriptive and analytical statistics interpreted the survey instrument and significant results were presented with 95% CI. Results. Respondents expressed a desire to provide contraceptive services. A few studentshad experienced training in abortion care. There were misconceptions about moderncontraceptive methods and the impact of sex education. Attitudes towards contraceptionwere mainly positive, premarital counselling was supported and the influence of traditional values and negative provider attitudes on services was recognised. Gender, area of upbringing and type of medical college did not change the results. Conclusions. Despite mostly positive attitudes towards modern contraceptives, sex education and family planning counselling, medical students in Maharashtra have misconceptions about modern methods of contraception. Preservice and in-service training in contraceptive counselling should be implemented in order to increase women's access to evidence-based maternal healthcare services.

Crônicas de viagem: o olhar poético de Cecília Meireles

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A contemplação estética como ideal do nirvana búdico

Pós-graduação em Filosofia - FFC

Lagrangian transport evaluation of atmospheric chemistry in the Mediterranean region

Global observations of the chemical composition of the atmosphere are essential for understanding and studying the present and future state of the earth's atmosphere. However, by analyzing field experiments the consideration of the atmospheric motion is indispensable, because transport enables different chemical species, with different local natural and anthropogenic sources, to interact chemically and so consequently influences the chemical composition of the atmosphere. The distance over which that transport occurs is highly dependent upon meteorological conditions (e.g., wind speed, precipitation) and the properties of chemical species itself (e.g., solubility, reactivity). This interaction between chemistry and dynamics makes the study of atmospheric chemistry both difficult and challenging, and also demonstrates the relevance of including the atmospheric motions in that context. In this doctoral thesis the large-scale transport of air over the eastern Mediterranean region during summer 2001, with a focus on August during the Mediterranean Intensive Oxidant Study (MINOS) measurement campaign, was investigated from a lagrangian perspective. Analysis of back trajectories demonstrated transport of polluted air masses from western and eastern Europe in the boundary layer, from the North Atlantic/North American area in the middle end upper troposphere and additionally from South Asia in the upper troposphere towards the eastern Mediterranean. Investigation of air mass transport near the tropopause indicated enhanced cross-tropopause transport relative to the surrounding area over the eastern Mediterranean region in summer. A large band of air mass transport across the dynamical tropopause develops in June, and is shifted toward higher latitudes in July and August. This shifting is associated with the development and the intensification of the Arabian and South Asian upper-level anticyclones and consequential with areas of maximum clear-air turbulence, hypothesizing quasi-permanent areas with turbulent mixing of tropospheric and stratospheric air during summer over the eastern Mediterranean as a result of large-scale synoptic circulation. In context with the latex knowledge about the transport of polluted air masses towards the Mediterranean and with increasing emissions, especially in developing countries like India, this likely gains in importance.

High-resolution reconstruction of Holocene climate variability and environmental changes in the North Pacific using bivalve shells

Bivalve mollusk shells are useful tools for multi-species and multi-proxy paleoenvironmental reconstructions with a high temporal and spatial resolution. Past environmental conditions can be reconstructed from shell growth and stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios, which present an archive for temperature, freshwater fluxes and primary productivity. The purpose of this thesis is the reconstruction of Holocene climate and environmental variations in the North Pacific with a high spatial and temporal resolution using marine bivalve shells. This thesis focuses on several different Holocene time periods and multiple regions in the North Pacific, including: Japan, Alaska (AK), British Columbia (BC) and Washington State, which are affected by the monsoon, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Such high-resolution proxy data from the marine realm of mid- and high-latitudes are still rare. Therefore, this study contributes to the optimization and verification of climate models. However, before using bivalves for environmental reconstructions and seasonality studies, life history traits must be well studied to temporally align and interpret the geochemical record. These calibration studies are essential to ascertain the usefulness of selected bivalve species as paleoclimate proxy archives. This work focuses on two bivalve species, the short-lived Saxidomus gigantea and the long-lived Panopea abrupta. Sclerochronology and oxygen isotope ratios of different shell layers of P. abrupta were studied in order to test the reliability of this species as a climate archive. The annual increments are clearly discernable in umbonal shell portions and the increments widths should be measured in these shell portions. A reliable reconstruction of paleotemperatures may only be achieved by exclusively sampling the outer shell layer of multiple contemporaneous specimens. Life history traits (e.g., timing of growth line formation, duration of the growing season and growth rates) and stable isotope ratios of recent S. gigantea from AK and BC were analyzed in detail. Furthermore, a growth-temperature model based on S. gigantea shells from Alaska was established, which provides a better understanding of the hydrological changes related to the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC). This approach allows the independent measurement of water temperature and salinity from variations in the width of lunar daily growth increments of S. gigantea. Temperature explains 70% of the variability in shell growth. The model was calibrated and tested with modern shells and then applied to archaeological specimens. The time period between 988 and 1447 cal yrs BP was characterized by colder (~1-2°C) and much drier (2-5 PSU) summers, and a likely much slower flowing ACC than at present. In contrast, the summers during the time interval of 599-1014 cal yrs BP were colder (up to 3°C) and fresher (1-2 PSU) than today. The Aleutian Low may have been stronger and the ACC was probably flowing faster during this time.

Calibration study of bivalve shells : implications for paleoenvironmental reconstruction

The accretionary shells of bivalve mollusks can provide environmental information, such as water temperature, precipitation, freshwater fluxes, primary productivity and anthropogenic activities in the form of variable growth rates and variable geochemical properties, such as stable oxygen and carbon isotopes. However, paleoenvironmental reconstructions are constrained by uncertainties about isotopic equilibrium fractionation during shell formation, which is generally acknowledged as a reasonable assumption for bivalves, but it has been disputed in several species. Furthermore, the variation in shell growth rates is accepted to rely on multiple environmental variables, such as temperature, food availability and salinity, but can differ from species to species. Therefore, it is necessary to perform species-specific calibration studies for both isotope proxies and shell growth rates before they can be used with confidence for environmental interpretations of the past. Accordingly, the principal objective of this Ph.D research is to examine the reliability of selected bivalve species, the long-lived Eurhomalea exalbida (Dillwyn), the short-lived and fast growing species Paphia undulata (Born 1778), and the freshwater mussel Margaritifera falcata (Gould 1850), as paleoenvironmental proxy archives.rnThe first part is focused on δ18Oshell and shell growth history of live-collected E. exalbida from the Falkland Islands. The most remarkable finding, however, is that E. exalbida formed its shell with an offset of -0.48‰ to -1.91‰ from the expected oxygen isotopic equilibrium with the ambient water. If this remained unnoticed, paleotemperature estimates would overestimate actual water temperatures by 2.1-8.3°C. With increasing ontogenetic age, the discrepancy between measured and reconstructed temperatures increased exponentially, irrespective of the seasonally varying shell growth rates. This study clearly demonstrates that, when the disequilibrium fractionation effect is taken into account, E. exalbida can serve as a high-resolution paleoclimate archive for the southern South America. The species therefore provides quantifiable temperature estimates, which yields new insights into long-term paleoclimate dynamics for mid to high latitudes on the southern hemisphere.rnThe stable carbon isotope of biogenic carbonates is generally considered to be useful for reconstruction of seawater dissolved inorganic carbon. The δ13Cshell composition of E. exalbida was therefore, investigated in the second part of this study. This chapter focuses on inter-annual and intra-annual variations in δ13Cshell. Environmental records in δ13Cshell are found to be strongly obscured by changes in shell growth rates, even if removing the ontogenetic decreasing trend. This suggests that δ13Cshell in E. exalbida may not be useful as an environmental proxy, but a potential tool for ecological investigations. rnIn addition to long-lived bivalve species, short-lived species that secrete their shells extremely fast, can also be useful for environmental reconstructions, especially as a high-resolution recorder. Therefore, P. undulata from Daya Bay, South China Sea was utilized in Chapter 4 to evaluate and establish a potential proxy archive for past variations of the East Asian monsoon on shorter time-scales. The δ18Oshell can provide qualitative estimates of the amount of monsoonal rain and terrestrial runoff and the δ13Cshell likely reflect the relative amount of isotopically light terrestrial carbon that reaches the ocean during the summer monsoon season. Therefore, shells of P. undulata can provide serviceable proxy archives to reconstruct the frequency of exceptional summer monsoons in the past. The relative strength of monsoon-related precipitation and associated changes in ocean salinity and the δ13C ratios of the dissolved inorganic carbon signature (δ13CDIC) can be estimated from the δ18Oshell and δ13Cshell values as well as shell growth patterns. rnIn the final part, the freshwater pearl shell M. falcata from four rivers in British Columbia, Canada was preliminarily studied concerning the lifespans and the shell growth rates. Two groups separated by the Georgia Strait can be clearly distinguished. Specimens from the western group exhibit a shorter lifespan, while the eastern group live longer. Moreover, the average lifespan seems to decrease from south to north. The computed growth equations from the eastern and western groups differ as well. The western group exhibits a lower growth rate, while bivalves from the eastern group grow faster. The land use history seems to be responsible for the differences in lifespans of the specimens from the two groups. Differences in growth rate may be induced by differences in water temperature or nutrient input also related to the land use activities.

Sustainable development in Darjeeling Hills, India : ecological and socio-economic aspects for small-scale farmers with supportive observations from Kanagawa, Japan

Organic farming means a holistic application of agricultural land-use, hence, this study aimed to assess ecological and socio-economic aspects that show benefits of the strategy and achievements of organic farming in comparison to conventional farming in Darjeeling District, State of West Bengal, India and Kanagawa Prefecture/Kanto in Central Japan. The objective of this study has been empirically analysed on aspects of crop diversity, yield, income and sales prices in the two study regions, where 50 households each, i.e. in total 100 households were interviewed at farm-level. Therefore, the small sample size does not necessarily reflect the broad-scale of the use and benefit of organic farming in both regions. The problems faced in mountainous regions in terms of agriculture and livelihoods for small-scale farmers, which are most affected and dependant on their immediate environment, such as low yields, income and illegal felling leading to soil erosion and landslides, are analyzed. Furthermore, factors such as climate, soils, vegetation and relief equally play an important role for these farmers, in terms of land-use. To supplement and improve the income of farmers, local NGOs have introduced organic farming and high value organic cash crops such as ginger, tea, orange and cardamom and small income generating means (floriculture, apiary etc.). For non-certified and certified organic products the volume is given for India, while for Japan only certified organic production figures are given, as there are several definitions for organic in Japan. Hence, prior to the implementation of organic laws and standards, even reduced chemical input was sold as non-certified organic. Furthermore, the distribution and certification system of both countries are explained in detail, including interviews with distribution companies and cooperatives. Supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are helpful and practical suggestions for organic farmers in Darjeeling District. Most of these are simple and applicable soil management measures, natural insect repelling applications and describe the direct marketing system practiced in Japan. The former two include compost, intercropping, Effective Microorganisms (EM), clover, rice husk charcoal and wood vinegar. More supportive observations have been made at organic and biodynamic tea estates in Darjeeling District, which use citronella, neem, marigold, leguminous and soil binding plants for soil management and natural insect control. Due to the close ties between farmers and consumers in Japan, certification is often neither necessary nor wanted by the producers. They have built a confidence relationship with their customers; thus, such measures are simply not required. Another option is group certification, instead of the expensive individual certification. The former aims at lower costs for farmers who have formed a cooperative or a farmers' group. Consumer awareness for organic goods is another crucial aspect to help improve the situation of organic farmers. Awareness is slightly more advanced in Kanto than in Darjeeling District, as it is improved due to the close (sales) ties between farmers and consumers in Kanto. Interviews conducted with several such cooperatives and companies underline the positive system of TEIKEI. The introduction of organic farming in the study regions has shown positive effects for those involved, even though it still in its beginning stages in Darjeeling District. This study was only partly able to assess the benefits of organic agriculture at its present level for Darjeeling District, while more positively for the organic farmers of Kanto. The organic farming practice needs further improvement, encouragement and monitoring for the Darjeeling District farmers by locals, consumers, NGOs and politicians. The supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are a small step in this direction, showing how, simple soil improvements and thus, yield and income increases, as well as direct sales options can enhance the livelihood of organic farmers without destroying their environment and natural resources.