Macro determinants of nonperforming loans in Portugal

This study uses a VAR methodology to evaluate the impact of the macroeconomic conditions and money supply in the fluctuation of nonperforming loans for the Portuguese economy. Additionally, the feedback effect of nonperforming loans growth to the economy and specially to the credit supply is analised. The study is motived by the hypothesis that loan quality is procyclical and that the fast growth of credit supply has a positive relation with the growth of nonperforming loans. The hypothesis that nonperforming loans reinforce economic fragilities and credit market frictions is also tested. Empirical results corroborate both hypothesis presented. Hence, it was possible to establish that the macroeconomic conditions measured by GDP and unemployment and the fast growth of credit supply contribute to the development of nonperforming loans. Furthermore, the growth of nonperforming loans reinforces the economic cycle, as it contributes to the deterioration of macroeconomic conditions and creates frictions in the credit market that may results in a credit crunch.

Brazilian equity risk premium analysis: A macroeconomic approach

Double Degree Masters in Economics Program from Insper and NOVA School of Business and Economics

Malaria in the State of Amazonas: a typical Brazilian tropical disease influenced by waves of economic development

In Brazil, more than 99% of malaria cases are reported in the Amazon, and the State of Amazonas accounts for 40% of this total. However, the accumulated experience and challenges in controlling malaria in this region in recent decades have not been reported. Throughout the first economic cycle during the rubber boom (1879 to 1912), malaria was recorded in the entire state, with the highest incidence in the villages near the Madeira River in the Southern part of the State of Amazonas. In the 1970s, during the second economic development cycle, the economy turned to the industrial sector and demanded a large labor force, resulting in a large migratory influx to the capital Manaus. Over time, a gradual increase in malaria transmission was observed in peri-urban areas. In the 1990s, the stimulation of agroforestry, particularly fish farming, led to the formation of permanent Anopheline breeding sites and increased malaria in settlements. The estimation of environmental impacts and the planning of measures to mitigate them, as seen in the construction of the Coari-Manaus gas pipeline, proved effective. Considering the changes occurred since the Amsterdam Conference in 1992, disease control has been based on early diagnosis and treatment, but the development of parasites that are resistant to major antimalarial drugs in Brazilian Amazon has posed a new challenge. Despite the decreased lethality and the gradual decrease in the number of malaria cases, disease elimination, which should be associated with government programs for economic development in the region, continues to be a challenge.

An equity wealth preservation strategy: Following the macro trend

Financial crisis have happened in the past and will continue to do so in the future. In the most recent 2008 crisis, global equities (as measured by the MSCI ACWI index) lost a staggering 54.2% in USD, on the year. During those periods wealth preservation becomes at the top of most investor’s concerns. The purpose of this paper is to develop a strategy that protects the investment during bear markets and significant market corrections, generates capital appreciation, and that can support Millennium BCP’s Wealth Management Unit on their asset allocation procedures. This strategy extends the Dual Momentum approach introduced by Gary Antonacci (2014) in two ways. First, the investable set of securities in the equities space increases from two to four. Besides the US it will comprise the Japanese, European (excl. UK) and EM equity indices. Secondly, it adds a volatility filter as well as three indicators related to the business cycle and the state of the economy, which are relevant to decide on the strategy’s exposure to equities. Overall the results attest the resiliency of the strategy before, during and after historical financial crashes, as it drastically reduces the downside exposure and consistently outperforms the benchmark index by providing higher mean returns with lower variance.

Energía Eólica en Argentina: una cuestión estratégica hacia la Economía del Hidrógeno. Wind Energy in Argentina: a strategic subject towards the Hydrogen Economy.

Identificación/caracterización del problema: El abastecimiento energético en base a fuentes no tradicionales o recursos no renovables es un tema altamente estratégico en las agendas de los Estados. El petróleo se está agotando y las existencias no alcanzarán para abastecer el consumo mundial.Esto ha llevado a Gobiernos a implementar alternativas de producción energética basadas en fuentes no tradicionales, tales como el Hidrógeno (H2), lo cual creará una Economía basada en el Hidrógeno.Argentina cuenta con una matriz energética dependiente en un 90 por ciento del petróleo y con reservas certificadas de petróleo y gas natural para 8,6 y 9,4 años respectivamente. Sin duda, los desafíos próximos serán: a) crear las herramientas necesarias para minimizar una potencial crisis energética en el corto plazo, y b) desarrollar políticas energéticas que articulen su autoabastecimiento e inserción en la Economía del Hidrógeno. Dado que Argentina cuenta con uno de los recursos renovables más importantes del mundo, "el viento", tiene condiciones inmejorables para obtener Hidrógeno (H2) por electrólisis del agua, utilizando energía eléctrica proveniente de fuentes renovables como la eólica (EE). Es por ello que apostar al desarrollo local del H2 basado en la EE nos ofrecerá como país, un rol estratégico en la futura Economía del Hidrógeno.Objetivo General: Identificar la actual Matriz Energética Argentina y reconocer los factores limitantes y oportunidades para la diversificación de la misma, utilizando la Energía Eólica (EE) como pilar hacia la Economía del Hidrógeno (Econo-H2). El fin último será esbozar herramientas de política energética e instrumentos regulatorios pertinentes, que sirvan de base para la formulación de una macro política energética.Metodología de Investigación: Se utilizarán técnicas de análisis de la siguiente información:a) Documental (textos, artículos, información periodística)b) Técnica, Legal y administrativa) Oral (Declaraciones oficiales-privadas y entrevistas)d) Visual (imágenes, gráficos y mapas)e) Datos (cronológicos, estadísticos y geográficos)Resultados esperados: La formulación de herramientas de política energética y de instrumentos regulatorios pertinentes, que sirvan de base para la formulación de una macro política energética que considere la Energía Eólica (EE) como un pilar fundamental para la diversificación de la matriz energética actual. Asimismo se reflexionará sobre la importancia de asociar la EE a la producción masiva del hidrógeno (H2) para la inserción y proyección futura de la Argentina hacia la Economía del Hidrógeno.Importancia del Proyecto: Argentina ha ratificado el protocolo de Kioto y forma parte de la Johannesburg Renewable Energy Coalition (JREC), por la cual ha asumido compromisos para fijar políticas nacionales de incentivo para el desarrollo de uso de energías renovables.Sin embargo, y a pesar de una serie de iniciativas y leyes promulgadas relacionadas a uso de energías renovables, hasta la fecha, no se ha logrado cumplir con metas concretas.Consideramos que uno de los factores fundamentales que ha dificultado esto, se basa en la ausencia de una política de Estado de mediano y largo plazo que incluya a las energías renovables como un objetivo concreto y un sistema de instrumentos y planes complementarios que acompañen dicha política.

Universal banking, competition and risk in a macro model

A stylized macroeconomic model is developed with an indebted, heterogeneous Investment Banking Sector funded by borrowing from a retail banking sector. The government guarantees retail deposits. Investment banks choose how risky their activities should be. We compared the benefits of separated vs. universal banking modelled as a vertical integration of the retail and investment banks. The incidence of banking default is considered under different constellations of shocks and degrees of competitiveness. The benefits of universal banking rise in the volatility of idiosyncratic shocks to trading strategies and are positive even for very bad common shocks, even though government bailouts, which are costly, are larger compared to the case of separated banking entities. The welfare assessment of the structure of banks may depend crucially on the kinds of shock hitting the economy as well as on the efficiency of government intervention.

How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy?

Econometric analysis has been inconclusive in determining the contribution that increased skills have on macroeconomic performance whilst conventional growth accounting approaches to the same problem rest on restrictive assumptions. We propose an alternative micro-to-macro method which combines elements of growth accounting and numerical general equilibrium modelling. The usefulness of this approach for applied education policy analysis is demonstrated by evaluating the macroeconomic impact on the Scottish economy of a single graduation cohort from further education colleges. We find the macroeconomic impact to be significant. From a policy point of view this supports a revival of interest in the conventional teaching role of education institutions.

Effect of investments on fundamentals and market reaction on pre-operational and operational Brazilian companies for the period 2006-2012

ABSTRACT This paper provides evidence on the market reaction to corporate investment decisions whose shareholder value is largely attributed to growth options. The exploratory research raised pre-operational companies and their operational pairs on the same economy segments. It had the purpose of investigating the existence of statistical differentiation from financial indicators that reflect the installed assets and growth assets, and then study the market reaction to changes in fixed assets as a signaling element about investment decisions. The formation process of operational assets and shareholder value almost exclusively dependent on asset growth stands out in the pre-operational companies. As a result, differentiation tests confirmed that the pre-operational companies had their value especially derived on growth options. The market reaction was particularly bigger in pre-operational companies with abnormal negative stock returns, while the operational companies had positive returns, which may indicate that the quality of the investment is judged based on the financial disclosure. Additionally, operational companies' investors await the disclosure to adjust their prices. We conclude that the results are consistent with the empirical evidence and the participants in financial markets to long-term capital formation investments should give that special attention.

Oil and economy in Mexico, 1900-1930s

This brief essay reviews the macro framework of oil and economy in Mexicoin the early days of the oil industry, from 1900 to 1938. The first sectiondisplays the figures of production at the world level and shows how Mexicobecome a major oil producer in the 1920s. The second section look at theMexican economy of the first third of the century followed by a thirdsection on the importance of the oil sector in terms of trade and fiscalincome. The last section reviews the literature and the outlooks of thecontemporaries over the development of the oil industry in the early partof the 20th century. The paper will be of use for those producing in depthanalyses of the Mexican oil industry in this period.

Simultaneous multielement extraction with the Mehlich-1 solution for Southern Brazilian soils determined by ICP-OES and the effects on the nutrients recommendations to crops

The amounts of macro (P, K, Ca and Mg) and micronutrients (Cu and Zn) extracted with the Mehlich-1 (M1) solution, by the 1.0 mol L-1 KCl (KCl) and with the 0.1 mol L-1 HCl (HCl) for representative soil types of the Rio Grande do Sul state (Brazil) were compared with those extracted with the Mehlich-1 solution determined with the inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP). The amounts of nutrients extracted by the different methods showed high correlation coefficients. On average, the Mehlich-1 solution extracted similar amounts of P, determined with colorimetric and ICP methods, and, K determined with emission and ICP. The amounts of Ca and Mg extracted with the Mehlich-1 solution, determined by ICP, were similar to those extracted with the KCl solution determined by the atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The amounts of Cu and Zn extracted with the Mehlich-1 solution, determined by the ICP, were higher than those extracted with the 0.1 mol L-1 HCl determined by the atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The results indicate that the Mehlich-1 solution and ICP can be used for simultaneous multielement extraction and determination for Southern Brazilian soils. However, a conversion factor for values interpretation is needed. The use of the conversion factor to determine the K availability index in soils is adequate and does not affect the K recommendations for crops in southern Brazilian soils.

Um panorama da nanotecnologia no Brasil (e seus macro-desafios)

The objectives of this essay are to describe the development of nanoscience and nanotechnology (N&N) in Brazil. The analysis shows that Brazilian research in N&N is considered satisfactory and, although under other denominations, dates from at least 20 years. Innovation is still less satisfactory and there are different points of views on the issue. However, there is already a tendency towards the promotion of innovation in nanotechnology in the country. Scientists and the industrial sector have been showing interest in partnerships and some scientific policies stimulate this articulation between academy and companies.

Non-linear analysis of laminated metal matrix composites by an integrated micro/macro-mechanical model

The present paper describes an integrated micro/macro mechanical study of the elastic-viscoplastic behavior of unidirectional metal matrix composites (MMC). The micromechanical analysis of the elastic moduli is based on the Composites Cylinder Assemblage model (CCA) with comparisons also draw with a Representative Unit Cell (RUC) technique. These "homogenization" techniques are later incorporated into the Vanishing Fiber Diameter (VFD) model and a new formulation is proposed. The concept of a smeared element procedure is employed in conjunction with two different versions of the Bodner and Partom elastic-viscoplastic constitutive model for the associated macroscopic analysis. The formulations developed are also compared against experimental and analytical results available in the literature.

Pipeline for macro- and microarray analyses

The pipeline for macro- and microarray analyses (PMmA) is a set of scripts with a web interface developed to analyze DNA array data generated by array image quantification software. PMmA is designed for use with single- or double-color array data and to work as a pipeline in five classes (data format, normalization, data analysis, clustering, and array maps). It can also be used as a plugin in the BioArray Software Environment, an open-source database for array analysis, or used in a local version of the web service. All scripts in PMmA were developed in the PERL programming language and statistical analysis functions were implemented in the R statistical language. Consequently, our package is a platform-independent software. Our algorithms can correctly select almost 90% of the differentially expressed genes, showing a superior performance compared to other methods of analysis. The pipeline software has been applied to 1536 expressed sequence tags macroarray public data of sugarcane exposed to cold for 3 to 48 h. PMmA identified thirty cold-responsive genes previously unidentified in this public dataset. Fourteen genes were up-regulated, two had a variable expression and the other fourteen were down-regulated in the treatments. These new findings certainly were a consequence of using a superior statistical analysis approach, since the original study did not take into account the dependence of data variability on the average signal intensity of each gene. The web interface, supplementary information, and the package source code are available, free, to non-commercial users at http://ipe.cbmeg.unicamp.br/pub/PMmA.

Brazilian scientific funding agency budgets have not matched the country's economic growth

The growth of the Brazilian economy in recent years has created an atmosphere of optimism in various segments of Brazilian society, with several important international repercussions. In this paper, we analyze in detail how this economic growth is reflected in investments in science and technology made by major academic funding agencies. As a result, we observed a discrepancy in the growth of funding input and the growth of the Brazilian gross domestic product. This fact associated with an increased academic output entails negative consequences for the system. This may be a symptom of an academic community not fully understood by society and vice versa. Finally, we believe that a long-lasting important change in investment policy in science is necessary in order to ensure financial security for the academic system as a whole.

Food production in solidarity economy: an issue that goes beyond laws

Abstract Food production within the context of solidarity economy is an alternative way to offer employment and income for a significant part of the Brazilian population. The purpose of this study was to carry out a business diagnosis in order to evaluate the facilities, the production process and hygiene practices of seven solidarity economy enterprises located in the city of Novo Hamburgo, Southern Brazil, that work with food production and sales. Visits took place at the enterprises and a check-list was used to record data. Although food production happens in places with space and setting restrictions, it guarantees distinctive foods with aggregate value, where handlers follow the whole process, from raw materials selection to sales. Basic hygiene principles are followed, as they guarantee the production of food with quality, which contributes towards income generation for participating families. Specific laws that apply to the characteristics and needs of small-scale food production must be written in order to regulate solidarity economy enterprises.