National institutions and employers’ age management practices in Britain and Germany:‘Path dependence’and option exploration

We pursue a comparative analysis of employers’ age management practices in Britain and Germany, asking how valid ‘convergence’ and ‘Varieties of Capitalism’ theories are. After rejecting the convergence verdict, we proceed to ask how far ‘path dependence’ helps explain inter-country differences. Through 19 interviews with British and German experts, we find that firms have reacted in different ways to promptings from the EU and the two states. Change has been modest and a rhetoric-reality gap exists in firms as they seek to hedge. We point to continuities in German institutional methods of developing new initiatives, and the emerging role of British NGOs in helping firms and the state develop new options. We argue that ‘path dependence’ offers insight into the national comparison, but also advance the idea of national modes of firm optionexploration as an important way of conceptualizing the processes involved.

On the Assumption of Bivariate Normality in Selection Models: A Copula Approach Applied to Estimating HIV Prevalence

Background: Heckman-type selection models have been used to control HIV prevalence estimates for selection bias when participation in HIV testing and HIV status are associated after controlling for observed variables. These models typically rely on the strong assumption that the error terms in the participation and the outcome equations that comprise the model are distributed as bivariate normal.
Methods: We introduce a novel approach for relaxing the bivariate normality assumption in selection models using copula functions. We apply this method to estimating HIV prevalence and new confidence intervals (CI) in the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) by using interviewer identity as the selection variable that predicts participation (consent to test) but not the outcome (HIV status).
Results: We show in a simulation study that selection models can generate biased results when the bivariate normality assumption is violated. In the 2007 Zambia DHS, HIV prevalence estimates are similar irrespective of the structure of the association assumed between participation and outcome. For men, we estimate a population HIV prevalence of 21% (95% CI = 16%–25%) compared with 12% (11%–13%) among those who consented to be tested; for women, the corresponding figures are 19% (13%–24%) and 16% (15%–17%).
Conclusions: Copula approaches to Heckman-type selection models are a useful addition to the methodological toolkit of HIV epidemiology and of epidemiology in general. We develop the use of this approach to systematically evaluate the robustness of HIV prevalence estimates based on selection models, both empirically and in a simulation study.

Efficiency optimization of the transportation supply chain activity: the maritime option for Volkswagen Autoeuropa

Field Lab of Entrepreneurial Innovative Ventures

Social Economy and Developmental Disabilities: An Employment Option that Promotes a Form of Authentic Work and Fosters Social Inclusion

Typical employment options for people with developmental disabilities are insufficient. Most employment opportunities that are community-based provide typical workplace and geographical inclusion but tend not to support social inclusion and "belonging". This study explored the innovative employment alternative of social businesses and considered this form of employment for persons with a developmental disability as a viable avenue for meaningful work and social inclusion. A total of six business partners with a developmental disability were interviewed; two partners from three separate worker owned businesses. The partners' descriptions of their job and their workplace composed the interpretative findings. The social businesses provided an avenue for this group of people who tend to be segregated in isolated workshops or marginalized in mainstream work environments and who feel a sense of being "outsiders" to participate in meaningful work in community settings. This group of partners described their job as authentic "work" and discussed the many skills and the work ethic learned from their employment opportunity. In addition to the instrumental aspects of the job, the partners also discussed the group autonomy and self-determination of being their own "bosses". The partners confidently expressed feeling valued, understood in the context of others with similar life experiences, attached to the workplace and connected to a larger community as important outcomes of their businesses. These criteria of social inclusion (Hall, 2010) were complemented by teamwork, friendship and ultimately, with a feeling of being genuine "insiders". Replication of this innovative employment model would be recommended for groups of marginalized people with DD in other geographic areas.

The Social Enterprise as an Alternative Work Option for Persons with Developmental Disabilities: A Case Study of Staff Perspectives at Common Ground Co-operative

Traditional employment options for persons with developmental disabilities are lacking. Employment options available for persons with developmental disabilities are reflective of the medical and social model perspectives of disability; with segregated and supported employment reinforcing the idea that persons with developmental disabilities are incapable and competitive employment missing the necessary accommodations for persons to be successful. This study examined social enterprises as an alternative employment option that can balance both medical and social model perspectives by accommodating for weaknesses or limitations and recognizing the strengths and capabilities of persons with developmental disabilities in the workplace. Moreover, this study is part of a broader case study which is examining the nature and impacts of a social enterprise, known as Common Ground Co-operative (CGC), which supports five social purpose businesses that are owned and operated by persons with developmental disabilities. This study is part of the Social Business and Marginalized Social Groups Community-University Research Alliance. To date, a case study has been written describing the nature and impacts of CGC and its related businesses from the perspectives of the Partners, board members, funders and staff (Owen, Readhead, Bishop, Hope & Campbell, in press & Readhead, 2012). The current study used a descriptive case study approach to provide a detailed account of the perceptions and opinions of CGC staff members who support each of the Partners in the five related businesses. Staff members were chosen for the focus of this study because of the integral role that they play in the successful outcomes of the persons they support. This study was conducted in two phases. In the first phase five staff members were interviewed. During this stage of interviews, several themes were presented which needed to be examined in further detail, specifically staff stress and burnout and duty of care for business Partners versus the promotion of their autonomy. A second phase of interviews was then conducted with one individual participant and a focus group of seven. During both interview phases, Staff participants described an employment model that creates a non-judgemental environment for the business Partners that promotes their strengths, accommodates for their limitations, provides educational opportunities and places the responsibility for the businesses on the persons with developmental disabilities cultivating equality and promoting independence. Staff described the nature of their role including risk factors for stress, the protective factors that buffer stress, and the challenges associated with balancing many role demands. Issues related to the replication of this social enterprise model are described.

La révalorisation des friches industrielles: une approche option réelle.

Rapport de recherche

L'évaluation par option réelle: une application au secteur du cuivre.

Rapport de recherche

Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent variables

This paper assesses the empirical performance of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables which generalizes the Hull-White stochastic volatility formula. Using this generalized formula in an ad-hoc fashion to extract two implicit parameters and forecast next day S&P 500 option prices, we obtain similar pricing errors than with implied volatility alone as in the Hull-White case. When we specialize this model to an equilibrium recursive utility model, we show through simulations that option prices are more informative than stock prices about the structural parameters of the model. We also show that a simple method of moments with a panel of option prices provides good estimates of the parameters of the model. This lays the ground for an empirical assessment of this equilibrium model with S&P 500 option prices in terms of pricing errors.

Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and Option Pricing

This paper develops a general stochastic framework and an equilibrium asset pricing model that make clear how attitudes towards intertemporal substitution and risk matter for option pricing. In particular, we show under which statistical conditions option pricing formulas are not preference-free, in other words, when preferences are not hidden in the stock and bond prices as they are in the standard Black and Scholes (BS) or Hull and White (HW) pricing formulas. The dependence of option prices on preference parameters comes from several instantaneous causality effects such as the so-called leverage effect. We also emphasize that the most standard asset pricing models (CAPM for the stock and BS or HW preference-free option pricing) are valid under the same stochastic setting (typically the absence of leverage effect), regardless of preference parameter values. Even though we propose a general non-preference-free option pricing formula, we always keep in mind that the BS formula is dominant both as a theoretical reference model and as a tool for practitioners. Another contribution of the paper is to characterize why the BS formula is such a benchmark. We show that, as soon as we are ready to accept a basic property of option prices, namely their homogeneity of degree one with respect to the pair formed by the underlying stock price and the strike price, the necessary statistical hypotheses for homogeneity provide BS-shaped option prices in equilibrium. This BS-shaped option-pricing formula allows us to derive interesting characterizations of the volatility smile, that is, the pattern of BS implicit volatilities as a function of the option moneyness. First, the asymmetry of the smile is shown to be equivalent to a particular form of asymmetry of the equivalent martingale measure. Second, this asymmetry appears precisely when there is either a premium on an instantaneous interest rate risk or on a generalized leverage effect or both, in other words, whenever the option pricing formula is not preference-free. Therefore, the main conclusion of our analysis for practitioners should be that an asymmetric smile is indicative of the relevance of preference parameters to price options.

Identités militantes et identité collective : le cas d'Option citoyenne

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

A class of bivariate Erlang distributions and ruin probabilities in multivariate risk models

Nous y introduisons une nouvelle classe de distributions bivariées de type Marshall-Olkin, la distribution Erlang bivariée. La transformée de Laplace, les moments et les densités conditionnelles y sont obtenus. Les applications potentielles en assurance-vie et en finance sont prises en considération. Les estimateurs du maximum de vraisemblance des paramètres sont calculés par l'algorithme Espérance-Maximisation. Ensuite, notre projet de recherche est consacré à l'étude des processus de risque multivariés, qui peuvent être utiles dans l'étude des problèmes de la ruine des compagnies d'assurance avec des classes dépendantes. Nous appliquons les résultats de la théorie des processus de Markov déterministes par morceaux afin d'obtenir les martingales exponentielles, nécessaires pour établir des bornes supérieures calculables pour la probabilité de ruine, dont les expressions sont intraitables.