Avaliando questionários de risco e o comportamento do investidor sobre a ótica de behavioral finance

Tolerância ao risco é fundamental quando se tomam decisões financeiras. No entanto, a avaliação da tolerância ao risco tem se baseado ao longo dos anos em diferentes metodologias, tais como julgamentos heurísticos e a teoria da utilidade esperada que tem como base a hipótese dos mercados eficientes. Foi dentro desta ótica que este trabalho se desenvolveu. O objetivo é analisar três diferentes questionários de avaliação ao risco que são na prática amplamente utilizados por consultores financeiros. Foi assumido para isso que os investidores são considerados racionais, conhecem e ordenam de forma lógica suas preferências, buscam maximizar a "utilidade" de suas escolhas, e conseguem atribuir com precisão probabilidades aos eventos futuros, quando submetidos a escolhas que envolvam incertezas. No entanto, em uma análise preliminar dos questionários, estes poderiam estar utilizando conceitos de behavioral finance para avaliarem a tolerância ao risco, ao invés de utilizarem somente a metodologia tradicional da teoria da utilidade esperada. Dessa forma tornou-se necessário o estudo dos conceitos de behavioral finance. O primeiro capítulo então trata dos aspectos psicológicos do investidor, procurando entender como este se comporta e como este forma suas preferências. Apesar do estudo assumir racionalidade nas decisões, se a teoria de behavioral estiver correta e os investidores apresentarem desvios a racionalidade, como a teoria prospectiva afirma, o questionário poderia ser o veículo ideal para identificar tais desvios, sendo possível então educar e orientar o indivíduo em suas escolhas financeiras, afim de maximizá-las. O capitulo dois coloca a análise dos questionários inserida no contexto da teoria moderna de finanças, falando das escolhas de portfólio para investidores de longo prazo. O capítulo mostra de forma bem resumida e simplificada como o investidor maximiza a sua utilidade da riqueza. A idéia desse capítulo é entender como alguns julgamentos heurísticos assumidos na prática por consultores financeiros afetam as escolhas de portfólio e em quais condições esses julgamentos heurísticos são verdadeiros. Isso se torna importante pois os questionários mesclam medidas de risco com horizonte de investimentos do investidor. Estes questionários são utilizados para traçar uma política de investimentos completa para o investidor. Para cada perfil de risco encontrado a instituição traça um modelo de alocação de portfólio. O capítulo três trata da avaliação dos questionários em si tendo como base a teoria da utilidade esperada, os conceitos de behaviral finance e as lições tiradas das escolhas de portfólio para investidores de longo prazo.

Investing better in order to invest more. Finance and management of education in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Essays on behavioral aspects of the design and disclosure of compensation contracts

This thesis consists of four essays on the design and disclosure of compensation contracts. Essays 1, 2 and 3 focus on behavioral aspects of mandatory compensation disclosure rules and of contract negotiations in agency relationships. The three experimental studies develop psychology- based theory and present results that deviate from standard economic predictions. Furthermore, the results of Essay 1 and 2 also have implications for firms’ discretion in how to communicate their top management’s incentives to the capital market. Essay 4 analyzes the role of fairness perceptions for the evaluation of executive compensation. For this purpose, two surveys targeting representative eligible voters as well as investment professionals were conducted. Essay 1 investigates the role of the detailed ‘Compensation Discussion and Analysis’, which is part of the Security and Exchange Commission’s 2006 regulation, on investors’ evaluations of executive performance. Compensation disclosure complying with this regulation clarifies the relationship between realized reported compensation and the underlying performance measures and their target achievement levels. The experimental findings suggest that the salient presentation of executives’ incentives inherent in the ‘Compensation Discussion and Analysis’ makes investors’ performance evaluations less outcome dependent. Therefore, investors’ judgment and investment decisions might be less affected by noisy environmental factors that drive financial performance. The results also suggest that fairness perceptions of compensation contracts are essential for investors’ performance evaluations in that more transparent disclosure increases the perceived fairness of compensation and the performance evaluation of managers who are not responsible for a bad financial performance. These results have important practical implications as firms might choose to communicate their top management’s incentive compensation more transparently in order to benefit from less volatile expectations about their future performance. Similar to the first experiment, the experiment described in Essay 2 addresses the question of more transparent compensation disclosure. However, other than the first experiment, the second experiment does not analyze the effect of a more salient presentation of contract information but the informational effect of contract information itself. For this purpose, the experiment tests two conditions in which the assessment of the compensation contracts’ incentive compatibility, which determines executive effort, is either possible or not. On the one hand, the results suggest that the quality of investors’ expectations about executive effort is improved, but on the other hand investors might over-adjust their prior expectations about executive effort if being confronted with an unexpected financial performance and under-adjust if the financial performance confirms their prior expectations. Therefore, in the experiment, more transparent compensation disclosure does not lead to more correct overall judgments of executive effort and to even lower processing quality of outcome information. These results add to the literature on disclosure which predominantly advocates more transparency. The findings of the experiment however, identify decreased information processing quality as a relevant disclosure cost category. Firms might therefore carefully evaluate the additional costs and benefits of more transparent compensation disclosure. Together with the results from the experiment in Essay 1, the two experiments on compensation disclosure imply that firms should rather focus on their discretion how to present their compensation disclosure to benefit from investors’ improved fairness perceptions and their spill-over on performance evaluation. Essay 3 studies the behavioral effects of contextual factors in recruitment processes that do not affect the employer’s or the applicant’s bargaining power from a standard economic perspective. In particular, the experiment studies two common characteristics of recruitment processes: Pre-contractual competition among job applicants and job applicants’ non-binding effort announcements as they might be made during job interviews. Despite the standard economic irrelevance of these factors, the experiment develops theory regarding the behavioral effects on employees’ subsequent effort provision and the employers’ contract design choices. The experimental findings largely support the predictions. More specifically, the results suggest that firms can benefit from increased effort and, therefore, may generate higher profits. Further, firms may seize a larger share of the employment relationship’s profit by highlighting the competitive aspects of the recruitment process and by requiring applicants to make announcements about their future effort. Finally, Essay 4 studies the role of fairness perceptions for the public evaluation of executive compensation. Although economic criteria for the design of incentive compensation generally do not make restrictive recommendations with regard to the amount of compensation, fairness perceptions might be relevant from the perspective of firms and standard setters. This is because behavioral theory has identified fairness as an important determinant of individuals’ judgment and decisions. However, although fairness concerns about executive compensation are often stated in the popular media and even in the literature, evidence on the meaning of fairness in the context of executive compensation is scarce and ambiguous. In order to inform practitioners and standard setters whether fairness concerns are exclusive to non-professionals or relevant for investment professionals as well, the two surveys presented in Essay 4 aim to find commonalities in the opinions of representative eligible voters and investments professionals. The results suggest that fairness is an important criterion for both groups. Especially, exposure to risk in the form of the variable compensation share is an important criterion shared by both groups. The higher the assumed variable share, the higher is the compensation amount to be perceived as fair. However, to a large extent, opinions on executive compensation depend on personality characteristics, and to some extent, investment professionals’ perceptions deviate systematically from those of non-professionals. The findings imply that firms might benefit from emphasizing the riskiness of their managers’ variable pay components and, therefore, the findings are also in line with those of Essay 1.

What to Expect in the Intake Interview? Impression Management Tactics of Psychotherapy Patients

The therapeutic alliance consists of a mutual dependency between patient and therapist. Whereas earlier studies have focused on the therapists' behavioral influence, the present study examined patients' impression management tactics. The motivation to manage the impressions one has on others is particularly strong during first contact. Patients' behavioral influence was thus examined in the intake interview. Twelve possible impression management tactics were defined on the basis of theoretical conceptions of the therapeutic alliance and discussions with practicing psychotherapists. After a comprehensive training, judges rated 60 videotaped interviews. Interjudge agreement was fair to good. Influence attempts could be observed in roughly 30% of all patients' utterances. The most frequent tactics were Supplication, Provoking a response from the therapist, and Self-promotion. Patients could be grouped into three different clusters of tactic employers: Negative self-presenters, positive self-presenters, and response provokers. Male and female patients did not differ with respect to the total amount of tactics used and to the choice of specific tactics. However, when the therapist was female, male patients used significantly more tactics overall and significantly more often the tactic Negative reports about third persons. Being sensitive to patients' behavioral influence can help therapists to better understand their interactional goals and to better tailor the therapeutic alliance.

Understanding treatment-related symptoms, symptom management techniques, and symptom management self-efficacy in a sample of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer patients

The current literature available on bladder cancer symptom management from the perspective of the patients themselves is limited. There is also limited psychosocial research specific to bladder cancer patients and no previous studies have developed and validated measures for bladder cancer patients’ symptom management self-efficacy. The purpose of this study was to investigate non-muscle invasive bladder cancer patients’ health related quality of life through two main study objectives: (1) to describe the treatment related symptoms, reported effectiveness of symptom-management techniques, and the advice a sample of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer patients would convey to physicians and future patients; and (2) to evaluate Lepore’s symptom management self-efficacy measure on a sample of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer patients. Methods. A total of twelve (n=12) non-muscle invasive bladder cancer patients participated in an in-depth interview and a sample of 46 (n=4) non-muscle invasive bladder cancer patients participated in the symptom-management self-efficacy survey. Results. A total of five symptom categories emerged for the participants’ 59 reported symptoms. Four symptom management categories emerged out of the 71 reported techniques. A total of 62% of the participants’ treatment related symptom-management techniques were reported as effective in managing their treatment-related symptoms. Five advice categories emerged out of the in-depth interviews: service delivery; medical advice; physician-patient communication; encouragement; and no advice. An exploratory factor analysis indicated a single-factor structure for the total population and a multiple factor structure for three subgroups: all males, married males, and all married participants. Conclusion. These findings can inform physicians and patients of effective symptom-management techniques thus improving patients’ health-related quality of life. The advice these patients’ impart can improve service-delivery and patient education.^

Correlates of post-diagnosis weight management among female breast cancer survivors: An Internet survey

Objective. Weight gain after cancer treatment is associated with breast cancer recurrence. In order to prolong cancer-free survivorship, interventions to manage post-diagnosis weight are sometimes conducted. However, little is known about what factors are associated with weight management behaviors among cancer survivors. In this study, we examined associations of demographic, clinical, and psychosocial variables with weight management behaviors in female breast cancer survivors. We also examined whether knowledge about post-diagnosis weight gain and its risk is associated with weight management behaviors. ^ Methods. 251 female breast cancer survivors completed an internet survey. They reported current performance of three weight management behaviors (general weight management, physical activity, and healthy diet). We also measured attitude, elf-efficacy, knowledge and social support regarding these behaviors along with demographic and clinical characteristics. ^ Results. Multiple regression models for the weight management behaviors explained 17% of the variance in general weight management, 45% in physical activity and 34% in healthy dieting. The models had 9–14 predictor variables which differed in each model. The variables associated with all three behaviors were social support and self-efficacy. Self-efficacy showed the strongest contribution in all models. The knowledge about weight gain and its risks was not associated with any weight management behaviors. However, women who obtained the knowledge during cancer treatment were more likely to engage in physical activity and healthy dieting. ^ Conclusions. The findings suggest that an intervention designed to increase their self-efficacy to manage weight, to be physically active, to eat healthy will effectively promote survivors to engage in these behaviors. Knowledge may motivate women to manage post-diagnosis weight about risk if information is provided during cancer treatment.^

Self -management behavior in patients with cystic fibrosis

Self-management is being promoted in cystic fibrosis (CF). However, it has not been well studied. Principal aims of this research were (1) to evaluate psychometric properties of a CF disease status measure, the NIH Clinical Score; (2) to develop and validate a measure of self-management behavior, the SMQ-CF scale, and (3) to examine the relation between self-management and disease status in CF patients over two years.^ In study 1, NIH Clinical Scores for 200 patients were used. The scale was examined for internal consistency, interrater reliability, and content validity using factor analysis. The Cronbach's alpha (.81) and interrater reliability (.90) for the total scale were high. General scale items were less reliable. Factor analysis indicated that most of the variance in disease status is accounted for by Factor 1 which consists of pulmonary disease items.^ The SMQ-CF measures the performance of CF self-management. Pilot testing was done with 98 CF primary caregivers. Internal consistency reliability, social desirability bias, and content validity using factor analysis were examined. Internal consistency was good (alpha =.95). Social desirability correlation was low (r =.095). Twelve factors identified were consistent with conceptual groupings of behaviors. Around two hundred caregivers from two CF centers were surveyed and multivariate analysis of variance was used to assess construct validity. Results confirmed expected relations between self-management, patient age, and disease status. Patient age accounted for 50% and disease status 18% of the variance in the SMQ-CF scale.^ It was hypothesized that self-management would positively affect future disease status. Data from 199 CF patients (control and education intervention groups) were examined. Models of hypothesized relations were tested using LISREL structural equation modeling. Results indicated that the relations between baseline self-management and Time 1 disease status were not significant. Significant relations were observed in self-management behaviors from time 1 to time 2 and patterns of significant relations differed between the two groups.^ This research has contributed to refinements in the ability to measure self-management behavior and disease status outcomes in cystic fibrosis. In addition, it provides the first steps in exploratory behavioral analysis with regard to self-management in this disease. ^

Behavioral economics: Reunifying psychology and economics

“Behavioral economics” improves the realism of the psychological assumptions underlying economic theory, promising to reunify psychology and economics in the process. Reunification should lead to better predictions about economic behavior and better policy prescriptions.

Management science, economics and finance: A connection

This paper provides a brief review of the connecting literature in management science, economics and finance, and discusses some research that is related to the three disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent econometric models to estimate the parameters in the associated models, and analyze some interesting issues in the three disciplines.