Histoire physique, politique et naturelle de l'ile de Cuba

[t.9] (1838-1842)

The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba

A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system.

Forecast of acute respiratory infections: expected nonepidemic mobidity in Cuba

A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.

Capture of Caliptrate flies with different breeding substrates on beaches in Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

Muscidae flies belonging to four Familia and 13 species in a total number of 3.652 specimens were collected from beaches at Ilha do Governador, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil using different breeding substrates, and subsequently bred in the laboratory. Captures were done from April to November 1989, using in a first phase different substrates: fruits (banana and papaya), vegtable (tomato), animal viscera (bovine liver), marine animals (fish, crab, shrimp, squid), mouse carcass and feaces (human and canine). The species collected more often were: Fannia sp. (subgroup pusio), Chrysomya megacephala, Phaenicia eximia, Synthesiomyia nudiseta, Peckya chrysostoma, Musca domestica and Atherigona orientalis. In a later phase, only fish was used, as bait and placed directly on the beach sand. From a total of 189 pupae, the following adult specimen were obtained: Peckia chrysostoma (58.06%), Chrysomya megacephala (30.64%) and in lesser numbers Synthesiomyia nudiseta and Phaenicia eximia.