Insecticide treated mosquito nets for malaria control in India-experience from a tribal area on operational feasibility and uptake

The study assessed the operational feasibility and acceptability of insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) in one Primary Health Centre (PHC) in a falciparum malaria endemic district in the state of Orissa, India, where 74% of the people are tribes and DDT indoor residual spraying had been withdrawn and ITNs introduced by the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme. To a population of 63,920, 24,442 ITNs were distributed free of charge through 101 treatment centers during July-August 2002. Interview of 1,130, 1,012 and 126 respondents showed that the net use rates were 80%, 74% and 55% in the cold, rainy and summer seasons, respectively. Since using ITNs, 74.5-76.6% of the respondents observed reduction of mosquito bites and 7.2-32.1% reduction of malaria incidence; 37% expressed willingness to buy ITNs if the cost was lower and they were affordable. Up to ten months post-treatment, almost 100% mortality of vector mosquitoes was recorded on unwashed and washed nets (once or twice). Health workers re-treated the nets at the treatment centers eight months after distribution on a cost-recovery basis. The coverage reported by the PHC was only 4.2%, mainly because of unwillingness of the people to pay for re-treatment and to go to the treatment centers from their villages. When the re-treatment was continued at the villages involving personnel from several departments, the coverage improved to about 90%.Interview of 126 respondents showed that among those who got their nets re-treated, 81.4% paid cash for the re-treatment and the remainder were reluctant to pay. Majority of those who paid said that they did so due to the fear that if they did not do so they would lose benefits from other government welfare schemes. The 2nd re-treatment was therefore carried out free of charge nine months after the 1st re-treatment and thus achieved coverage of 70.4%. The study showed community acceptance to use ITNs as they perceived the benefit. Distribution and re-treatment of nets was thus possible through the PHC system, if done free of charge and when personnel from different departments, especially those at village level, were involved.

Cancer mortality inequalities in urban areas: a Bayesian small area analysis in Spanish cities

Background Intra-urban inequalities in mortality have been infrequently analysed in European contexts. The aim of the present study was to analyse patterns of cancer mortality and their relationship with socioeconomic deprivation in small areas in 11 Spanish cities. Methods It is a cross-sectional ecological design using mortality data (years 1996-2003). Units of analysis were the census tracts. A deprivation index was calculated for each census tract. In order to control the variability in estimating the risk of dying we used Bayesian models. We present the RR of the census tract with the highest deprivation vs. the census tract with the lowest deprivation. Results In the case of men, socioeconomic inequalities are observed in total cancer mortality in all cities, except in Castellon, Cordoba and Vigo, while Barcelona (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.42-1.67), Madrid (RR = 1.57 95%CI 1.49-1.65) and Seville (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.36-1.74) present the greatest inequalities. In general Barcelona and Madrid, present inequalities for most types of cancer. Among women for total cancer mortality, inequalities have only been found in Barcelona and Zaragoza. The excess number of cancer deaths due to socioeconomic deprivation was 16,413 for men and 1,142 for women. Conclusion This study has analysed inequalities in cancer mortality in small areas of cities in Spain, not only relating this mortality with socioeconomic deprivation, but also calculating the excess mortality which may be attributed to such deprivation. This knowledge is particularly useful to determine which geographical areas in each city need intersectorial policies in order to promote a healthy environment.

Effect of untreated bed nets on blood-fed Phlebotomus argentipes in kala-azar endemic foci in Nepal and India

Observational studies in the Indian subcontinent have shown that untreated nets may be protective against visceral leishmaniasis (VL). In this study, we evaluated the effect of untreated nets on the blood feeding rates of Phlebotomus argentipes as well as the human blood index (HBI) in VL endemic villages in India and Nepal. The study had a "before and after intervention" design in 58 households in six clusters. The use of untreated nets reduced the blood feeding rate by 85% (95% CI 76.5-91.1%) and the HBI by 42.2% (95% CI 11.1-62.5%). These results provide circumstantial evidence that untreated nets may provide some degree of personal protection against sand fly bites.

A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Compositional ideas in the bayesian analysis of categorical data with application to dose finding clinical trials

Compositional random vectors are fundamental tools in the Bayesian analysis of categorical data.Many of the issues that are discussed with reference to the statistical analysis of compositionaldata have a natural counterpart in the construction of a Bayesian statistical model for categoricaldata.This note builds on the idea of cross-fertilization of the two areas recommended by Aitchison (1986)in his seminal book on compositional data. Particular emphasis is put on the problem of whatparameterization to use

Comparison of the efficacy of long-lasting insecticidal nets PermaNet® 2.0 and Olyset® against Anopheles albimanus under laboratory conditions

Insecticide-treated nets provide a reduction in human-vector contact through physical barrier, mortality and/or repellent effects that protect both users and non-users, thereby protecting the wider community from vector-borne diseases like malaria. Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) are the best alternative. This study evaluated the bioefficacy of LLINs PermaNet® 2.0 and Olyset® under laboratory conditions with Anopheles albimanus. The laboratory strain was evaluated for insecticide susceptibility with selected insecticides used for malarial control. Regeneration time and wash resistance were evaluated with the standard bioassay cone technique following WHO guidelines. Heat assistance was used for Olyset® nets; the nets were exposed to four different temperatures to speed the regeneration process. The regeneration study of PermaNet® 2.0 showed that efficacy was fully recovered by 24 h after one and three washes and wash resistance persisted for 15 washes. Regeneration of Olyset® nets was not observed for nets washed three times, even with the different temperature exposures for up to seven days. Thus, for Olyset® the wash resistance evaluation could not proceed. Differences in response between the two LLINs may be associated with differences in manufacturing procedures and species response to the evaluated LLINs. PermaNet® 2.0 showed higher and continuous efficacy against An. albimanus.

Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

A Bayesian approach for pervasive estimation of breaststroke velocity using a wearable IMU

A ubiquitous assessment of swimming velocity (main metric of the performance) is essential for the coach to provide a tailored feedback to the trainee. We present a probabilistic framework for the data-driven estimation of the swimming velocity at every cycle using a low-cost wearable inertial measurement unit (IMU). The statistical validation of the method on 15 swimmers shows that an average relative error of 0.1 ± 9.6% and high correlation with the tethered reference system (rX,Y=0.91 ) is achievable. Besides, a simple tool to analyze the influence of sacrum kinematics on the performance is provided.

Object-oriented Bayesian networks for evaluating DIP-STR profiling results from unbalanced DNA mixtures.

The genetic characterization of unbalanced mixed stains remains an important area where improvement is imperative. In fact, with current methods for DNA analysis (Polymerase Chain Reaction with the SGM Plus™ multiplex kit), it is generally not possible to obtain a conventional autosomal DNA profile of the minor contributor if the ratio between the two contributors in a mixture is smaller than 1:10. This is a consequence of the fact that the major contributor's profile 'masks' that of the minor contributor. Besides known remedies to this problem, such as Y-STR analysis, a new compound genetic marker that consists of a Deletion/Insertion Polymorphism (DIP), linked to a Short Tandem Repeat (STR) polymorphism, has recently been developed and proposed elsewhere in literature [1]. The present paper reports on the derivation of an approach for the probabilistic evaluation of DIP-STR profiling results obtained from unbalanced DNA mixtures. The procedure is based on object-oriented Bayesian networks (OOBNs) and uses the likelihood ratio as an expression of the probative value. OOBNs are retained in this paper because they allow one to provide a clear description of the genotypic configuration observed for the mixed stain as well as for the various potential contributors (e.g., victim and suspect). These models also allow one to depict the assumed relevance relationships and perform the necessary probabilistic computations.

Bayesian tools for zero counts in compositional data

The log-ratio methodology makes available powerful tools for analyzing compositionaldata. Nevertheless, the use of this methodology is only possible for those data setswithout null values. Consequently, in those data sets where the zeros are present, aprevious treatment becomes necessary. Last advances in the treatment of compositionalzeros have been centered especially in the zeros of structural nature and in the roundedzeros. These tools do not contemplate the particular case of count compositional datasets with null values. In this work we deal with \count zeros" and we introduce atreatment based on a mixed Bayesian-multiplicative estimation. We use the Dirichletprobability distribution as a prior and we estimate the posterior probabilities. Then weapply a multiplicative modi¯cation for the non-zero values. We present a case studywhere this new methodology is applied.Key words: count data, multiplicative replacement, composition, log-ratio analysis

Efficacy of prescribed injectable diacetylmorphine in the Andalusian trial: Bayesian analysis of responders and non-responders according to a multi domain outcome index.

BACKGROUND The objective of this research was to evaluate data from a randomized clinical trial that tested injectable diacetylmorphine (DAM) and oral methadone (MMT) for substitution treatment, using a multi-domain dichotomous index, with a Bayesian approach. METHODS Sixty two long-term, socially-excluded heroin injectors, not benefiting from available treatments were randomized to receive either DAM or MMT for 9 months in Granada, Spain. Completers were 44 and data at the end of the study period was obtained for 50. Participants were determined to be responders or non responders using a multi-domain outcome index accounting for their physical and mental health and psychosocial integration, used in a previous trial. Data was analyzed with Bayesian methods, using information from a similar study conducted in The Netherlands to select a priori distributions. On adding the data from the present study to update the a priori information, the distribution of the difference in response rates were obtained and used to build credibility intervals and relevant probability computations. RESULTS In the experimental group (n = 27), the rate of responders to treatment was 70.4% (95% CI 53.287.6), and in the control group (n = 23), it was 34.8% (95% CI 15.354.3). The probability of success in the experimental group using the a posteriori distributions was higher after a proper sensitivity analysis. Almost the whole distribution of the rates difference (the one for diacetylmorphine minus methadone) was located to the right of the zero, indicating the superiority of the experimental treatment. CONCLUSION The present analysis suggests a clinical superiority of injectable diacetylmorphine compared to oral methadone in the treatment of severely affected heroin injectors not benefiting sufficiently from the available treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52023186.

Using petri nets to specify and execute missions for autonomous underwater vehicles

This paper presents the design and implementation of a mission control system (MCS) for an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) based on Petri nets. In the proposed approach the Petri nets are used to specify as well as to execute the desired autonomous vehicle mission. The mission is easily described using an imperative programming language called mission control language (MCL) that formally describes the mission execution thread. A mission control language compiler (MCL-C) able to automatically translate the MCL into a Petri net is described and a real-time Petri net player that allows to execute the resulting Petri net onboard an AUV are also presented

Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks (Part 2): bayesian evaluations for results of black toner analyses in forensic document examination

This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software.

Bayesian nash equilibrium in ''linear'' cournot models with private information about costs

Calculating explicit closed form solutions of Cournot models where firms have private information about their costs is, in general, very cumbersome. Most authors consider therefore linear demands and constant marginal costs. However, within this framework, the nonnegativity constraint on prices (and quantities) has been ignored or not properly dealt with and the correct calculation of all Bayesian Nash equilibria is more complicated than expected. Moreover, multiple symmetric and interior Bayesianf equilibria may exist for an open set of parameters. The reason for this is that linear demand is not really linear, since there is a kink at zero price: the general ''linear'' inverse demand function is P (Q) = max{a - bQ, 0} rather than P (Q) = a - bQ.